Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Regarding the eastern front, the general consensus seems to make sense. The nazis having the resources allocated to Africa to use in russia would keep their momentum going longer and the probability of taking former-Tsaritsyn higher. The soviets having slightly better and more lend-lease tanks is comparatively a drop in the bucket until they can actually use them well. That said, I don't believe there's any posts regarding Valiants shipped to the soviets being in active use against the nazis as of yet? Is there going to be (hint, hint)?
 
Regarding the eastern front, the general consensus seems to make sense. The nazis having the resources allocated to Africa to use in russia would keep their momentum going longer and the probability of taking former-Tsaritsyn higher. The soviets having slightly better and more lend-lease tanks is comparatively a drop in the bucket until they can actually use them well. That said, I don't believe there's any posts regarding Valiants shipped to the soviets being in active use against the nazis as of yet? Is there going to be (hint, hint)?
I'd disagree , the main land logistics in WW2 are rail and nothing there has improved ( no rail units were ever sent to Africa ). So the pipe is still the same size , that was the problem at Stalingrad , they had to chose between what was sent as the rail links were maxed rather than not enough available to send. The extra stuff might help afterwards when the fighting is nearer railheads but the extra distance more trucks gives is limited as both road capacity is unchanged and exponential number of trucks are needed to increase distance from railheads.
 
And remember If this information did come from Sorge then it directly contradicted another piece of information he gathered previously and it contradicts the independent evidence the Soviets collected.
that would be logical to see the contradiction, but unfortunately logic does not even come within 100km of stalin
 
(...)with the fall of stalingrad, the soviets will have to take a possible japanese invasion of the primorski into account and thus have to move troops east, which will have effects in the west.
That effect, while important, would not be the most significant.

By far more impactful would be the consequences of Japan's ability to interdict US/Canadian shipping into Vladivostok. Receipt of western-North-America-produced bulk materials there...bulk and fabricated metals including aluminum, many heavy industrial products, whole aircraft, aircraft and other specialized engines...plus many central-continent-produced goods including trucks, tires, engines, guns, ammunition, specialized explosives and many other items...was hugely significant in regard to minimized losses in transit to Murmansk, management of port tonnage and number-of-berths limitations in Murmansk and Persia/Iran, and rail system capacities from those relatively western points of entry to central Asian industrial locations...especially if German territorial gains were able to complicate Russian use of the rail links from Murmansk southward and Iran northward.

And a further complication would occur later. USA's B-29 bombing campaign against Japan began from fields deep in southwest China...but it was known that bomber crews setting down, bailing out or crash-landing in Japan-occupied China/Manchuria/Korea typically were killed. The OTL emergency fields and recommended bailout locations for those initial B-29 missions were at Vladivostok, because the neutral Russians provided benign treatment of US bomber crews that reached Russian territory. My understanding from the history of that campaign is that, without any other option for safe emergency fields/bailout locations and given the relatively greater US concern for survival of their military personnel, that bombing campaign probably would not have proceeded until much later, when Pacific island bases close enough to be their own emergency sites became available.

Note further that IJA would not have to be involved on the ground in Russia, other than possibly recon and bomber involvement from northern Japan over western Pacific waters. Vladivostok could have been interdicted primarily by IJN, using submarines and surface warships. Russia did not have sufficient surface assets in Vladivostok to counter such a Japanese interdiction, and Allied shipping to Vladivostok was not escorted or (mostly) even convoyed.
 
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That effect, while important, would not be the most significant.

By far more impactful would be the consequences of Japan's ability to interdict US/Canadian shipping into Vladivostok. Receipt of western-North-America-produced bulk materials there...bulk and fabricated metals including aluminum, many heavy industrial products, whole aircraft, aircraft and other specialized engines...plus many central-continent-produced goods including trucks, tires, engines, guns, ammunition, specialized explosives and many other items...was hugely significant in regard to minimized losses in transit to Murmansk, management of port tonnage and number-of-berths limitations in Murmansk and Persia/Iran, and rail system capacities from those relatively western points of entry to central Asian industrial locations...especially if German territorial gains were able to complicate Russian use of the rail links from Murmansk southward and Iran northward.

And a further complication would occur later. USA's B-29 bombing campaign against Japan began from fields deep in southwest China...but it was known that bomber crews setting down, bailing out or crash-landing in Japan-occupied China/Manchuria/Korea typically were killed. The OTL emergency fields and recommended bailout locations for those initial B-29 missions were at Vladivostok, because the neutral Russians provided benign treatment of US bomber crews that reached Russian territory. My understanding from the history of that campaign is that, without any other option for safe emergency fields/bailout locations and given the relatively greater US concern for survival of their military personnel, that bombing campaign probably would not have proceeded until much later, when Pacific island bases close enough to be their own emergency sites became available.
The effects would be legion and not just upon the Allies. The resources needed to blockade Soviet ports would drain resources from the Southern Offensive as would the Northern Land Offensive itself. Japanese resources for China would be minimal which means no Ichi-Go and a stronger Nationalist presence (which means bad news for Mao)

The cumulative effect of a greater German success in the Eastern Front / Caucasus coupled with a Japanese invasion of the Soviet Far East could cripple the USSR offensively but I don't believe either the Germans or the Japanese were strong enough to collapse their particular front.

And the B-29 would have options to land and return (instead of being stolen by the Soviets and their crews "escape") if the Soviets were still in the fight and they would likely be basing further forward in China as the Japanese can't be everywhere all at once.
 
I'd disagree , the main land logistics in WW2 are rail and nothing there has improved ( no rail units were ever sent to Africa ). So the pipe is still the same size , that was the problem at Stalingrad , they had to chose between what was sent as the rail links were maxed rather than not enough available to send. The extra stuff might help afterwards when the fighting is nearer railheads but the extra distance more trucks gives is limited as both road capacity is unchanged and exponential number of trucks are needed to increase distance from railheads.
Adding to this from what I remember reading the roads in Russia at this point were still bloody awful factor in the time of year as well as some roads go from bloody awful to churned mess that eats men, horses and any form of vehicle.
 
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Also it's worth noting that the Axis powers moved a lot of supplies through the Black Sea. While the more successful Allies won't be threatening to sail into the Black Sea there may well be less Axis merchant shipping available.

The British foothold in Crete may see the Italians less able to commit shipping.
 

Garrison

Donor
I really don't see what is a drop in the bucket in terms of the amount of armour committed to Case Blue making that big a difference, especially since German logistics are still not going to be able to sustain an unlimited advance.
 
I don't believe this was ever Japanese government policy (as opposed to Army faction wish list)

Did Japanese Government Policy even matter to the Kwangtung Army? Japan didn't have the means to go for the North and South Resource Area simultaneously. With the British proving to be a harder nut to crack than anticipated, some "bright" lieutenant in the IJA might notice that the Germans have been "defeated" by the British in North Africa, while the Nazis are crushing the USSR and launch an attack. It wouldn't be the most stupid act undertaken by a junior IJA officer.

And as JWilly put it, even some form of interdiction against Soviet shipping to Vladivostok would have ramifications. Possibly even the mere threat of it might.

It will be up to our esteemed author to decide.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
That effect, while important, would not be the most significant.

By far more impactful would be the consequences of Japan's ability to interdict US/Canadian shipping into Vladivostok. Receipt of western-North-America-produced bulk materials there...bulk and fabricated metals including aluminum, many heavy industrial products, whole aircraft, aircraft and other specialized engines...plus many central-continent-produced goods including trucks, tires, engines, guns, ammunition, specialized explosives and many other items...was hugely significant in regard to minimized losses in transit to Murmansk, management of port tonnage and number-of-berths limitations in Murmansk and Persia/Iran, and rail system capacities from those relatively western points of entry to central Asian industrial locations...especially if German territorial gains were able to complicate Russian use of the rail links from Murmansk southward and Iran northward.

And a further complication would occur later. USA's B-29 bombing campaign against Japan began from fields deep in southwest China...but it was known that bomber crews setting down, bailing out or crash-landing in Japan-occupied China/Manchuria/Korea typically were killed. The OTL emergency fields and recommended bailout locations for those initial B-29 missions were at Vladivostok, because the neutral Russians provided benign treatment of US bomber crews that reached Russian territory. My understanding from the history of that campaign is that, without any other option for safe emergency fields/bailout locations and given the relatively greater US concern for survival of their military personnel, that bombing campaign probably would not have proceeded until much later, when Pacific island bases close enough to be their own emergency sites became available.

Note further that IJA would not have to be involved on the ground in Russia, other than possibly recon and bomber involvement from northern Japan over western Pacific waters. Vladivostok could have been interdicted primarily by IJN, using submarines and surface warships. Russia did not have sufficient surface assets in Vladivostok to counter such a Japanese interdiction, and Allied shipping to Vladivostok was not escorted or (mostly) even convoyed.

I would like to raise a minor point, regarding both Cash and Carry, and Lend Lease cargoes into Vladivostok, up until the last few months of the war, all such cargoes were carried on Soviet flagged ships. Had either American or Canadian flagged ships sailed to Vladivostok, they would have come under attack by the Japanese. In addition the deal between the Soviets and the Japanese precluded any shipments of weapons. So you could send a truck but you couldn’t send a tank, any amount of food and fuel were acceptable, but supplies of explosives weren’t.

RR.
 
Did Japanese Government Policy even matter to the Kwangtung Army? Japan didn't have the means to go for the North and South Resource Area simultaneously. With the British proving to be a harder nut to crack than anticipated, some "bright" lieutenant in the IJA might notice that the Germans have been "defeated" by the British in North Africa, while the Nazis are crushing the USSR and launch an attack. It wouldn't be the most stupid act undertaken by a junior IJA officer.

And as JWilly put it, even some form of interdiction against Soviet shipping to Vladivostok would have ramifications. Possibly even the mere threat of it might.

It will be up to our esteemed author to decide.

Given the only one who could control the Japanese military was the Emperor the Govt doesn't matter and they can run wild I'm China
 
Per https://www.cnrs-scrn.org/northern_mariner/vol27/tnm_27_31-58.pdf, a comprehensive analysis of US and Canadian provision of various supplies to Russia through Far East ports, aircraft and explosives both were transiting from nearly the beginning, notwithstanding the nominal terms of the neutrality agreement. Japan protested several times, but the Soviet Union pushed back and matters continued unchanged. There was discussion during 1942 at the Stalin-Roosevelt level about substantially increasing the volume of those two categories, specifically through Vladivostok, as a partial offset for the insufficiency in Stalin's view of western-Allied land efforts against Germany.

There's considerable detail in the above source about cargo types, including munitions.

Most west-coast-built aircraft that were going to Russia by sea went across the Pacific, for the simple reason of avoidance of having to move them across North America.

Some trucks, railway equipment and other industrial products built in the center of the continent were shipped to the west coast and then across the Pacific rather than the east and Atlantic, simply because the volume of such products was so great that many ports and ships were needed to handle them all.
 
(...) all such cargoes were carried on Soviet flagged ships.
Per the above source, Japan allowed US and Canadian vessels to conduct "commercial" trade with the Soviet Union from the beginning of the Mutual Aid program, and this encompassed almost everything that was provided, other than out-and-out munitions.

But in any case, the discussion of course is of Japanese interdiction of Soviet trade after a declaration of war. In such a context, Soviet flagged vessels would have been subject to Japanese attack, same as US or Canadian flagged ones.
 
Did Japanese Government Policy even matter to the Kwangtung Army? Japan didn't have the means to go for the North and South Resource Area simultaneously. With the British proving to be a harder nut to crack than anticipated, some "bright" lieutenant in the IJA might notice that the Germans have been "defeated" by the British in North Africa, while the Nazis are crushing the USSR and launch an attack. It wouldn't be the most stupid act undertaken by a junior IJA officer.

And as JWilly put it, even some form of interdiction against Soviet shipping to Vladivostok would have ramifications. Possibly even the mere threat of it might.

It will be up to our esteemed author to decide.
Japan did pose a threat to the Soviet Union, both on land and at sea, for the duration of the Great Patriotic War. The fear that the IJN could interdict the supply route through Vladivostok loomed large in their thoughts, as did the presence of the Kwangtung Army in Manchuria. As a result, and despite the demands for manpower & equipment to the west, the Soviets still maintained considerable forces to counter that threat. Richard Sorge may have allowed the transfer of enough of the Siberian units west to halt the Nazi advance, but there was no way that either Stalin or STAVKA would leave the East uncovered.
 
Japan lacked a doctrine of unrestricted submarine warfare or merchant warfare. Their submarines were meant to support fleet operations which is why they were so ineffective against merchant shipping. They occassionally sunk such a ship, So, to suggest they would or could interdict shipping into Vladivostok is rather silly. They more than like would try halfheartedly but that would be it. Their efforts around Australia weren't much good, either.
 
Japan lacked a doctrine of unrestricted submarine warfare or merchant warfare. Their submarines were meant to support fleet operations which is why they were so ineffective against merchant shipping. They occassionally sunk such a ship, So, to suggest they would or could interdict shipping into Vladivostok is rather silly. They more than like would try halfheartedly but that would be it. Their efforts around Australia weren't much good, either.
How much of that did the Soviet's know? Also it's not just submarines that conduct merchant warfare, surface ships are actually a bigger threat. If the Japanese wanted to stop shipping with surface units how would the soviets counter them?
 
4 April 1942. Ping River, Thailand.
4 April 1942. Ping River, Thailand.


Sergeant Robert Lamb didn’t know what was worse. The sound of the artillery fire both coming and going, or the massed bagpipes of two of 9th (Highland) Division’s Brigades playing together. Lambs’ troop, part of B Squadron of 44th Bn RTR, were supporting the 5th Bn Seaforth Highlanders. For some unearthly reason, 9th (Highland) Division’s GOC Major-General Douglas Wimberley had ordered the attack to be accompanied, not by the usual dispersed pipers, but by the massed pipes of the Division. From Lamb’s point of view, it was working, because it seemed that the Japanese artillery seemed to be intent on suppressing the noise of the pipes rather than the river crossing being force.

Lamb, along with the rest of the tanks were waiting for the Engineers to sort out rafts and bridges to get the tanks across. A couple of tanks from HQ Company had attempted to wade across the river where it had been thought it was shallow enough. Unfortunately, both tank’s engines had been flooded and so they were stuck, until someone could get a tow rope on to them and pull them out.

A few tanks from each squadron were placed in such a way that they could use their 3-inch gun and co-axial machine gun to support the Highlanders. Lamb’s Valiant I tank, ’Blighty’ had the 2-pdr gun as its main armament, so was a bit less useful that those with the Close Support gun. The Troop Leader, Lieutenant Bill Jackson, in ‘Blondie’ was relying on Sergeant Jim Keegan in ‘Bicester’ to provide the troop with the HE capability. Lt Jackson had made it clear that Lamb’s main job was to protect Bicester, keeping any Japanese threats well away from the troop’s Close Support tank. Lamb had therefore got as much machine gun ammunition into the tank as he could. The gunner, Tommy Stevens, knew from experience that he’d spend much more time on the co-axial than on the main gun, the loader John Mitchell was well aware of his role in keeping the Besa fed. Blighty’s driver, an Irishman named Paddy O’Neill, seemed to be the only one in the tank enjoying the pipes, though his opinion that they weren’t as good as Irish pipes was bemusing to the Englishmen who made up the rest of the crew.

The 9th Division’s artillery was well seasoned from the North African campaign, while the rest of the Division acted as line of communication troops, the three field regiments had played an important role in the defeat of the Italians and Germans. The 25-pdrs had put up quite the barrage, promising at times to drown out the pipes. They had covered the assault troops of the two Brigades (26th & 27th) as they crossed the river and secured the east bank, allowing two full Battalions across. The Engineers were then hard at work getting more of the men, and the tanks, across the river.

It was late in the morning when Jackson gave the order for his troop to move up to a raft, to be lifted across the water. When O’Neill put the tank into gear, the rest of the crew could hear him praying 'Hail Marys' over the intercom, Lamb didn’t have the heart to tell him to be quiet. Blighty was the last of the troop to board a raft, and Lamb found himself himself alone for a few minutes. The other tanks had disappeared from sight, an Engineer eventually pointing him in the direction of the fight. O’Neill brought Blighty into sight of the other tanks, with Jackson cursing his late arrival.

The Seaforth Highlanders had penetrated a few hundred yards beyond the river, but had ran into a line of Japanese bunkers that were causing mayhem. Bicester was hard at work, pumping away with its Close Support gun. Blondie was at its side, its Besa firing almost continuously. Lamb gave O’Neill instructions and found a half-decent hull down position, while Stevens started using the co-axial, but sparingly at first. It was entirely possible that the other two tanks would burn out the barrels on the Besas they way they were using them. Stevens knew that if that happened, then it would be down to him to protect them, and support the infantry.

The bell from the external telephone at the rear of the tank rang, and Lamb had a brief conversation with one of the Lieutenants. A squad of men were about to try to take out a Japanese bunker and their officer was asking Lamb to give them as much cover as possible. Having identified the bunker’s main firing slit, he ordered Stevens to put a few rounds of main gun ammunition into the bunker. Stevens and Mitchell worked like a well-oiled machine, as six rounds were fired in short order, at least three of them going straight into the bunker, the others battering the logs around it. The Besa opened up again, and Lamb watched as the highlanders moved forward and slung a satchel charge into the firing slit. There was a satisfying explosion which seemed to lift the whole roof of the bunker up a couple of feet before collapsing down. The rest of the platoon had moved up quickly and were securing the position, when another Japanese machine gun opened up on their flank.

Stevens saw it at the same time as Lamb, and three shots from the 2-pdr replied on behalf of the Scottish infantry, followed by some pretty accurate fire from the Besa. Lamb had tried to keep one eye on Bicester and Blondie while all this was happening. They were still pouring fire into the Japanese lines, when Blondie was hit with something like an anti-tank gun. The shot ricocheted off the turret armour, but took an aerial with it. With Jackson out of radio communication, Lamb wanted to take his tank forward to let the damaged tank back out of the fight. Jim Keegan in Bicester announced on the radio that he was getting short of 3-inch HE rounds and machine gun ammo. Lamb told him that he would remain in place and cover his and Jackson’s withdrawal. This meant that the Seaforth Highlanders that Blighty had been covering would be on their own, but the main attack, where the two Infantry tanks were was continuing apace.

As Lamb watched, he saw Lieutenant Jackson jump off his tank and run to the rear of Bicester. Obviously brought up to date by Keegan, the Troop Leader gave a thumbs up to Lamb and ran back for his tank. It seemed somewhat miraculous that he got back unharmed, and Lamb’s stray thought as he heard O’Neill start another Hail Mary, went in that direction. The two Valiant I tanks began to reverse, and Lamb guided Stevens in providing covering fire for them. Once again, an anti-tank round hit Blondie, once again not penetrating, but it looked like the turret ring was damaged, as the tank no longer swivelled, but the Besa kept firing.

O’Neill, despite his lower position called out that he had spotted where the anti-tank gun was firing from. Having brought Stevens to bear on yet another log bunker, and Stevens soon had it under direct fire. As the two tanks passed Blighty, Jackson used the phone to tell Lamb move aside as he would take command of Blighty. When he arrived in the turret, Lamb took the place of Mitchell, the loader, who went over to Blondie. Jackson informed him that Bicester would rearm and return as quickly as possible. Blondie would need time with an Aid Detachment to be put right. In the meantime, Jackson tuned Lamb’s radio over to the Squadron frequency and reported the situation. After a few minutes, the Squadron CO replied that another troop would arrive shortly and take over.

With Lamb now acting as loader, and nowhere as fluid as Mitchell, Jackson guided Stevens in providing cover for the Seaforth attack. Although they’d planned for the greater use of machine-gun ammunition, Lamb noted that they were going through 2-pdr ammunition pretty quickly. Stevens seemed to be adept at putting rounds right into firing slits, or at least their immediate vicinity. With only one tank firing, instead of three, the infantry movement was lessened. Just after putting on a new box of ammo for the Besa and charging the machine gun, Jackson called out that the Japanese troops were in the open. Lamb quietly cursed his inability to see what was going on, but from what Jackson and Stevens were saying, it sounded like a Japanese counterattack was happening. Stevens’ previous efforts to keep the Besa’s barrel in good condition was ditched and he fired a long burst as the turret swung back and forth, Jackson calling out particularly dangerous movements.

The radio buzzed and with Jackson busy, Lamb heard the Squadron CO calling for an air strike on the Japanese attackers. The Besa continued to chatter and Stevens called for another belt, with the demand it be done quickly and without problems, otherwise they were going to be overrun. Lamb couldn’t believe the Japanese had broken through the Seaforth Highlanders, and the new belt of ammunition was on and Stevens was firing again, with the comment that Mitchell would have been quicker, but Lamb wasn’t bad. As much a compliment that Lamb was ever going to get.

Lamb lost track of time, and they were down to their last belt of ammo when the three tanks of another troop arrived, with a couple of Companies of fresh troops and the Japanese were gone, almost as instantly as they’d appeared. Jackson briefed to the other troop leader and then O’Neill backed the tank up until it could turn around to get back towards the river to be refuelled and rearmed. Bicester was at the RAC outpost, and its crew had some tea on brew which Lamb’s crew were most grateful for.

Lamb looked around, and saw that the engineers had a couple of crossings which were filled with men moving forward. They were still rafting tanks over, but there were now two full squadrons supporting two Brigades. Jackson’s crew had managed to get Blondie’s turret fixed and a new aerial installed. Whatever had jammed the turret ring had been hammered out, without any lasting damage. As soon as Blighty was ready, with a new barrel on the Besa and a full load of 2-pdr ammo, full fuel tanks and the men having had something to eat and drink, Blondie led the troop back towards the front line.

Wounded men were being carried back towards the river crossing. The Japanese had swept through and around the leading Companies of 5th Bn Seaforth Highlanders, but the Scots had carried on fighting wherever squads had managed to hold a position. Once the second wave of Scots arrived, the line was re-established and a bit of progress was being made beyond the line of Japanese fixed defences. Lamb surveyed the scene as Blighty moved forward, taking the chance to have his head out the turret, while he could. The dead were intermingled, lying together, men from Sutherland and Sendai.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
What can we take from this battle, other than the obvious, the Japanese failed to hold a defended river crossing. First and foremost, without an effective anti tank weapon, tanks even those that are by European standards effectively obsolete, are at little risk against the Japanese. As long as they and their accompanying infantry work together, they will dominate any battle that they are engaged in. And no matter how well dug in the Japanese are, they will always be unable to hold a position against a well planned and executed combined arms attack. Especially if as this assault was, the attack is unlike the majority of assaults they have faced in China, involves well led, trained, equipped, supplied and supported forces, with adequate air support. Note the tank platoon comprised experienced men, with modern weapons, who were able once they had run out of ammunition and suffered minor damage, able to retire to a supply point, having been replaced by a fresh platoon, and receive complete resupply, maintenance and food. Where as in China, a Chinese formation would have been lucky to go into battle well feed, under addiquate artillery and with a full supply of ammunition, and had they run out of ammunition, would probably find that the reserve ammunition had been sold off by a corrupt officer. In Burma, Thailand and Malaya the Japanese are only going to encounter British forces that far outclass them, and they are going to be very much on the back foot for the remainder of the war. The increasing success of the British elsewhere means that they have more resources to deploy to the Far East, and the steady build up of Indian units and their increasing professionalism, means that the Japanese are shortly going to be in desperate straits. I would expect that by the end of 1942, the majority of troops will be Indian, and increasing led by Indian officers, at all but divisional level, and much the same will happen with the air force. The only area that will remain predominantly British and Australian, will be the navy, as I doubt that the Indians will crew anything larger than a Sloop until post war.

RR.
 
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