Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Norway is hardly feasible. Good terrain for coastal landings has reasonably wide patches of beach shallow enough for landing ships, is close enough to the edge of the continental shelf or some other deeper part of the seas (or at least reasonably devoid of rocks) to allow capital ships to support the landings without worrying about grounding themselves and actually has the facilities in place or nearby to use the landing grounds to project power elsewhere, either inland or down the coast. Finding a spot which fulfills two of those criteria in Norway is unlikely.
 
3 April 1942. East Prussia
3 April 1942. East Prussia

Generalfeldmarschall Fedor von Bock (Army Group South) sat down with Franz Halder, Chief of Staff of the German Army High Command (OKH) to discuss his plan for a mid-spring offensive. Von Bock’s army group would be given the mission of clearing the Soviets from the Caucasus, taking the vital oil fields located there, and capturing Stalingrad.

Before the fullness of the plan could be implemented, there was the matter of a bulge in the line south of Kharkov, with the town of Izyum at its heart. The Red Army had pushed forward during their winter offensive, and if Army Group South was to capture Stalingrad, this bulge would need to be pinched off first.

Von Bock had been working on a plan, codenamed Fridericus, which envisioned two prongs of an attack along the west bank of the river Donets. He had proposed Paulus’s 6th Army striking from the north, while Eberhard von Mackensen’s III Panzer Corps, part of Army Group von Kleist, would attack from the south.

When presented with the plan, Hitler and Halder wanted the attack to take place on the eastern bank of the Donets. Having flown in to Hitler’s HQ, von Bock and Halder were trying to work out the details of what would be known as Fridericus II. Halder mentioned that one of the few advantages of the loss of the Deutsches Afrika-Korps was that there were some 360 panzers available as replacements for losses during Operation Barbarossa, that otherwise would have been sent to Rommel. The benefit in Petrol Oil and Lubricants, as well as ammunition and, not least in men, added the equivalent of almost two whole Panzer Divisions available to the forces in Russia. The other piece for good news for von Bock had been the addition of II. Fliegerkorps that the Fuhrer had decided was of more use in Russia than the Mediterranean. So far their primary focus was on supporting the attack in Crimea.

Von Bock’s plan to collapse the Soviet bulge was estimated to begin at the end of April, the first week in May at the latest, as always, depending as much on the weather as anything else.
 
It's not going to achieve it's objectives of taking the Caucasus, the constraint was logistics rather than numbers of tanks but Fall Blau might just be able to take Stalingrad on the bounce here. But the German's culmination point is in sight and sooner or later those Ural factories are going to start churning out an unstoppable horde of good enough T-34's.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
And here we have what appears to be a major advantage for the Germans, brought about by their much earlier withdrawal from North Africa. However the small number of extra tanks and I would assume other motor vehicles, plus the availability of more POL, and aircraft. Is only a temporary relief to what is the fundamental problem the Germans have, the Soviets can afford to take more casualties, and give up even more territory. And then bounce back, in numbers that the Germans can never match, and thus grind them down until they break and start the long retreat to Germany. The real winners of the German withdrawal from the conflict in the Mediterranean is the British, especially as the Germans have removed the Luftwaffe as well as their ground troops. Is not only going to see the British having to expend far less resources for now on the Mediterranean theatre, thus freeing up resources for the Far East. The Italians are going to feel abandoned and start to reassess their position, and there is a good chance that Mussolini is going to be replaced, with someone more amenable to making a deal. Hitler’s fixation with the Soviets along with his advisers poor understanding of global strategy, which has already led them into the madness of attacking the Soviets. Is once again leading them down the primrose path of attacking, when they should be retiring and shortening their lines and preparing for the coming onslaught. Even if they succeed in their plans, it will be the British who benefit in the long run, they can concentrate for the remainder of the year on strengthening their position in the Far East, while tidying up the Mediterranean region, and dealing with the ongoing conflict in the Atlantic. If they are lucky they and the Americans will once the inevitable collapse happens in Italy be able to occupy Italy as far north as Rome by mid 43. Which didn’t happen until just before the Normandy invasion IOTL, and will place them in a position to occupy all of the Italian peninsula by the end of 44. And with the delays to the Soviet march west incurred by greater success in the Caucuses, there is a good chance that the Soviets will not have reached Germany, Austria and Czechoslovak by the time that the Anglo Americans have taken Berlin. Which would see a very different postwar world, and different negotiations between the Big Three in 43.

RR.
 
3 April 1942. East Prussia

Generalfeldmarschall Fedor von Bock (Army Group South) sat down with Franz Halder, Chief of Staff of the German Army High Command (OKH) to discuss his plan for a mid-spring offensive. Von Bock’s army group would be given the mission of clearing the Soviets from the Caucasus, taking the vital oil fields located there, and capturing Stalingrad.

Before the fullness of the plan could be implemented, there was the matter of a bulge in the line south of Kharkov, with the town of Izyum at its heart. The Red Army had pushed forward during their winter offensive, and if Army Group South was to capture Stalingrad, this bulge would need to be pinched off first.

Von Bock had been working on a plan, codenamed Fridericus, which envisioned two prongs of an attack along the west bank of the river Donets. He had proposed Paulus’s 6th Army striking from the north, while Eberhard von Mackensen’s III Panzer Corps, part of Army Group von Kleist, would attack from the south.

When presented with the plan, Hitler and Halder wanted the attack to take place on the eastern bank of the Donets. Having flown in to Hitler’s HQ, von Bock and Halder were trying to work out the details of what would be known as Fridericus II. Halder mentioned that one of the few advantages of the loss of the Deutsches Afrika-Korps was that there were some 360 panzers available as replacements for losses during Operation Barbarossa, that otherwise would have been sent to Rommel.
Around 10% more tanks is alright....
The benefit in Petrol Oil and Lubricants, as well as ammunition and, not least in men, added the equivalent of almost two whole Panzer Divisions available to the forces in Russia. The other piece for good news for von Bock had been the addition of II. Fliegerkorps that the Fuhrer had decided was of more use in Russia than the Mediterranean. So far their primary focus was on supporting the attack in Crimea.
While the air force is also had been reinforced.
Von Bock’s plan to collapse the Soviet bulge was estimated to begin at the end of April, the first week in May at the latest, as always, depending as much on the weather as anything else.
Hmmm
And here we have what appears to be a major advantage for the Germans, brought about by their much earlier withdrawal from North Africa. However the small number of extra tanks and I would assume other motor vehicles, plus the availability of more POL, and aircraft. Is only a temporary relief to what is the fundamental problem the Germans have, the Soviets can afford to take more casualties, and give up even more territory. And then bounce back, in numbers that the Germans can never match, and thus grind them down until they break and start the long retreat to Germany.
Things are slight worse for the Soviet...ww
The real winners of the German withdrawal from the conflict in the Mediterranean is the British, especially as the Germans have removed the Luftwaffe as well as their ground troops. Is not only going to see the British having to expend far less resources for now on the Mediterranean theatre, thus freeing up resources for the Far East. The Italians are going to feel abandoned and start to reassess their position, and there is a good chance that Mussolini is going to be replaced, with someone more amenable to making a deal. Hitler’s fixation with the Soviets along with his advisers poor understanding of global strategy, which has already led them into the madness of attacking the Soviets. Is once again leading them down the primrose path of attacking, when they should be retiring and shortening their lines and preparing for the coming onslaught. Even if they succeed in their plans, it will be the British who benefit in the long run, they can concentrate for the remainder of the year on strengthening their position in the Far East, while tidying up the Mediterranean region, and dealing with the ongoing conflict in the Atlantic. If they are lucky they and the Americans will once the inevitable collapse happens in Italy be able to occupy Italy as far north as Rome by mid 43. Which didn’t happen until just before the Normandy invasion IOTL, and will place them in a position to occupy all of the Italian peninsula by the end of 44. And with the delays to the Soviet march west incurred by greater success in the Caucuses, there is a good chance that the Soviets will not have reached Germany, Austria and Czechoslovak by the time that the Anglo Americans have taken Berlin. Which would see a very different postwar world, and different negotiations between the Big Three in 43.

RR.
Well things are progressing well for the British and not so much for everyone else. Depending on how big is the Soviet bounce back...there would probably be some changes in the occupational zone border, or even perhaps the Soviet border...
 
Depending on how big is the Soviet bounce back

If the Germans succeed in taking The Crossing...well, I can't think of where the next closest area to fjord troops across is.

Which means that the Soviets would have to retake The Crossing the hard way...that would definitely limit the Soviet bounce back...
 
Yep Soviets get stuck at the crossing it will probably upset rhe diplomatic apple cart since I can see Stalin getting very insistent for a Second Front.
 
Also to add to this if Stalin does not get his slice of Germany he will be monumentally pisses since he took the German invasion personally
 
Also to add to this if Stalin does not get his slice of Germany he will be monumentally pisses since he took the German invasion personally
I can’t see him not getting Ostpreussen.

It’s good news for the British, East German civilians, Poles and Czechs. But very bad news for the Jews, and Soviet citizens.

And it’s interesting to see Stalingrad is already a goal. If it’s being given some prioritisation in the planning stage, then it has a greater chance of falling. And that would really upset the other murderous European dictator with the funny moustache…
 
The real winners of the German withdrawal from the conflict in the Mediterranean is the British, especially as the Germans have removed the Luftwaffe as well as their ground troops. Is not only going to see the British having to expend far less resources for now on the Mediterranean theatre, thus freeing up resources for the Far East.

It's not shocking that the primary beneficiary of a PoD that gives the British much better tanks and all the knock on effects from that is... Britain.
 
It's not shocking that the primary beneficiary of a PoD that gives the British much better tanks and all the knock on effects from that is... Britain.
This gentleman would expect nothing less than this outcome.
bull.jpg
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Giving Britain better tanks, doesn’t necessarily mean that Britain will preform better than it did IOTL. It also requires the British to learn the lessons of combined all arms warfare, and the communications and control needed. Plus putting in place the logistics to support mobile warfare, which requires more dependence on motor vehicles, and even more trains to transport the vastly increased demand for POL. Add to this the Germans who were close to economic collapse in 40/41, much as they had been pre war, have to invade the Soviet Union, one of their primary sources of raw materials. And thus seriously reduce the pressure on the British, as this action confirms two things, there isn’t going to be an invasion of Britain, as the Germans don’t have the troops or naval forces to spare. Nor is there going to be a continuation of the bombing campaign, as the bombers are all tied up now in the Soviet Union, and the Germans can not afford to remove them from there, leaving their troops without air cover. Britain could have had the very best tanks in the world, but without the support and leadership, they would have been just very expensive pillboxes.

RR.
 
Hello,

Considering what is now being learned ITTL, would Carden or the Army consider the idea of a true armored personnel carrier? There are certainly...
But is there enough insight to bring that to its logical conclusion?
 
Giving Britain better tanks, doesn’t necessarily mean that Britain will preform better than it did IOTL. It also requires the British to learn the lessons of combined all arms warfare, and the communications and control needed. Plus putting in place the logistics to support mobile warfare, which requires more dependence on motor vehicles, and even more trains to transport the vastly increased demand for POL. Add to this the Germans who were close to economic collapse in 40/41, much as they had been pre war, have to invade the Soviet Union, one of their primary sources of raw materials. And thus seriously reduce the pressure on the British, as this action confirms two things, there isn’t going to be an invasion of Britain, as the Germans don’t have the troops or naval forces to spare. Nor is there going to be a continuation of the bombing campaign, as the bombers are all tied up now in the Soviet Union, and the Germans can not afford to remove them from there, leaving their troops without air cover. Britain could have had the very best tanks in the world, but without the support and leadership, they would have been just very expensive pillboxes.

RR.
Yeah, but better tanks means more surviving tanks, and thus surviving tankers, to have experienced those lessons and learn from them, so we would - all other things being equal - expect things to go better for Britain. And better tanks also means fewer tank designs, and particularly better-maintainability in those designs, which combine to require a lower logistics overhead to support a given force size.
Which in turn has the synergy that fewer losses and more effective use of the available supply tonnage should put bigger forces in the field, which in turn inflict greater losses upon the Heer, resulting in correspondingly smaller losses to the British - I'm not saying Lanchester (Lancunian?) ratios, but more that it's a compound interest problem where the successive impacts are a geometric progression of gains compared to OTL.

What Carden has not offered so far is an opportunity for Winston to send the whole of the Eighth Army to Gallipoli or something - the interesting limit on the impact of tankage PODs is that Britain doesn't become much more able to land them in the places that she would like.
 
And here we have what appears to be a major advantage for the Germans, brought about by their much earlier withdrawal from North Africa. However the small number of extra tanks and I would assume other motor vehicles, plus the availability of more POL, and aircraft. Is only a temporary relief to what is the fundamental problem the Germans have, the Soviets can afford to take more casualties, and give up even more territory.

RR.
As i understand it, the logistics requirement for the DAK was out of all proportion compared to units in Europe, however, they will still have as you say problems.
 
Hmm circling back to Italy with Germany pulling units out of the Med Area and the Failures in Africa by the Italians. What are the chances Musolini gets locked in a very secure room at some point and the Allies get invited into Italy so to speak?

I mean the war is over for them effectively they've been beaten on ground, sea and air along with the Germans visibly pulling a good deal of support anyone with eyes can see the fat man will probably be diposed is a palace coup or and actual one.
 
3 April 1942. East Prussia
Halder mentioned that one of the few advantages of the loss of the Deutsches Afrika-Korps was that there were some 360 panzers available as replacements for losses during Operation Barbarossa, that otherwise would have been sent to Rommel. The benefit in Petrol Oil and Lubricants, as well as ammunition and, not least in men, added the equivalent of almost two whole Panzer Divisions available to the forces in Russia.
And perhaps more importantly trucks

Rommels DAK absorbed 10 times more trucks than an equivalent sized force on the Eastern front
 

Garrison

Donor
A shorter North African campaign and the Germans getting further with Case Blue is going to lead to massive pressure for a landing in Northwest Europe in 1943.
 
Well, the US isn't going to be seen as ready, so that means that they'll need to find something to relieve the pressure in the meantime.

Amphibious ops in the Eastern Med are looking more and more likely, which will have interesting effects on the availability for landing craft out East.

If the army and navy are making noise in the Aegean, it's going to be a lot easier to divert a few landing craft here and there to send them out East, as they've already made the long trip around Africa to get to their operational area, so they'll want to get their moneys worth out of them, even if it means losing a few to operations around Singapore and Malaya.
 
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