Taiping industrialize China like Stalin did Soviet Union

octoberman

Banned
Stalin industrialized the Soviet union by collectivizing agriculture and exporting it's output to gain the capital need to hire the experts and buy the equipment required for industrialization.

Taiping rebellion also abolished private property and planned to adopt modern technology like railways, steamships and modern banking, patents. They did not coordinate with other rebellions which the ruling Qing defeated separately and they attacked western treaty ports which caused the western powers to support the Qing. This led to their defeat.

What if the Taiping rebellion coordinated their attacks with other rebellions like Nian rebellion, Red Turban rebellion, Small Swords Society, Miao rebellion, Pingnan Guo, Islamic rebellions and the Black Flag Army while having good relations with Western Powers. This leads to the fall of the Qing dynasty. Taiping defeat other rebels separately to conquer China. They collectivize all of China's agriculture and export it's output gain the capital need to hire the experts and buy the equipment required for industrialization.

What will be the effects of China industrializing like this ?

How the western powers react to this industrialization ?

How will the Taiping project their new industrial power ?
 

holycookie

Avrorrange said:
They can’t. Have to spend years employing Western engineers into the country, ordering foreign parts and educate their own engineers first before that could feasibly happen.
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In addition to receiving a gigantic amount of investment like Tsarist Russia. Like the french investment in Russian. In OTL French investors and companies played a crucial part in this process by providing capital, technology, and expertise. French capital helped establish and expand mining operations. The french companies brought advanced mining and metallurgical technologies. Basically, in addition to time, the country needs a strong investor, or if you don't have one. It will need even more time, at least 30 years (it was the time for Japan to industrialize). Probably considering the size of the country, 40 to 50 years would be ideal to have a good industrial base in the country. But that's with everything going right.
 

Dude-a-Buck

After quickly looking up the various rebellions you listed, I'm questioning if the Tiaping would even  want to work with some of them. Mainly since the Taiping are at their core a Christian cult, would they be willing to work with the various Islamic rebels?

The Red Turbans were apparently linked to organized crime through prostitution and opium both of which were outlawed in the Heavenly Kingdom. Could they work together?
 

octoberman

Banned
holycookie said:
In addition to receiving a gigantic amount of investment like Tsarist Russia. Like the french investment in Russian. In OTL French investors and companies played a crucial part in this process by providing capital, technology, and expertise. French capital helped establish and expand mining operations. The french companies brought advanced mining and metallurgical technologies. Basically, in addition to time, the country needs a strong investor, or if you don't have one.
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No need for an investor. Taiping can export grain for capital and technology just like Stalin
holycookie said:
It will need even more time, at least 30 years (it was the time for Japan to industrialize). Probably considering the size of the country, 40 to 50 years would be ideal to have a good industrial base in the country. But that's with everything going right.
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Japan did not industrialise in 30 years and agriculture employed the majority of its workforce even when the cold war started and only later did it become an industrialised economy. It industrialised by supporting industrialists not a command economy like Stalin industrialized USSR within a decade
 

octoberman

Banned
Dude-a-Buck said:
After quickly looking up the various rebellions you listed, I'm questioning if the Tiaping would even  want to work with some of them. Mainly since the Taiping are at their core a Christian cult, would they be willing to work with the various Islamic rebels?

The Red Turbans were apparently linked to organized crime through prostitution and opium both of which were outlawed in the Heavenly Kingdom. Could they work together?
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Taiping would  want to work with them in order to collapse the Qing and stab them in the back after the Qing fall
 

holycookie

octoberman said:
No need for an investor. Taiping can export grain for capital and technology just like Stalin
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Stalin took a country that already had industry and, to finish it off quickly, destroyed all other economic sectors, caused famines and other horrors. Stalin-style industrialization is the suicide of a nation, as it was for Russia. To this day, the country has not recovered from Stalin's crimes, which were necessary for the Dictator to force such industrialization. You cannot compare China with Russia because they are not on the same industrial scale. Without French support, the Russian empire would not be half the industrial power it was.
octoberman said:
Japan did not industrialise in 30 years
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yes, it was 50+ years
octoberman said:
It industrialised by supporting industrialists not a command economy like Stalin industrialized USSR within a decade
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Yes, and Japan had a huge investment of American money. China without major investments will industrialize slowly, which indicates something around +100 years to be considered industrialized (or at least partially industrialized)
 
Kurd Gossemer

Kurd Gossemer

holycookie said:
Stalin took a country that already had industry and, to finish it off quickly, destroyed all other economic sectors, caused famines and other horrors. Stalin-style industrialization is the suicide of a nation, as it was for Russia. To this day, the country has not recovered from Stalin's crimes, which were necessary for the Dictator to force such industrialization. You cannot compare China with Russia because they are not on the same industrial scale. Without French support, the Russian empire would not be half the industrial power it was.

yes, it was 50+ years

Yes, and Japan had a huge investment of American money. China without major investments will industrialize slowly, which indicates something around +100 years to be considered industrialized (or at least partially industrialized)
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That same rapid and state driven industrialization was key in defeating the Nazis. Not saying killing people was justifiable but given the alternative it was clearly the lesser of two evils, plus there's blame on the successors that never figured out how to reform the heavy industry focused nation.

It should also be noticed Japan had a huge surplus of city population who were in stable times where merchants grew rich and literacy was high compared to other places, meaning they had several factors that allowed them to essentially be left alone to industrialize and even then it took decades of work and state mandated policy to get it off the ground.
 

Tyler96

The Taiping's government structures were barely functional; the land they ruled devastated; their leadership divided into factionalism and feuding that occasionally simmered over into outright murder; the Heavenly King locked himself up in his palace and more interested in chatting with dad than exercising any meaningful political leadership, only emerging from seclusion to engage in wanton paranoia, promote untalented relatives and undermine actual competent subordinates; and attempts to make overtures to the West entirely unsuccessful.

Even if the Qing are knocked out, the Taiping's ability to 'rule' China in any meaningful sense is questionable, let alone having the coherence or stability to collectivise all agriculture, defeat all the other rebellions, and pull off industrialisation.
 

holycookie

Kurd Gossemer said:
That same rapid and state driven industrialization was key in defeating the Nazis.
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Yes, at the same time Stalin killed basically everyone who was competent in the Soviet army. Furthermore, Stalin out of fear killed the entire Russian middle class. That killed once and for all the idea of a rich and prosperous Russia. The USA was very lucky to have an opponent with such stupid and destructive ideas.
Kurd Gossemer said:
plus there's blame on the successors that never figured out how to reform the heavy industry focused nation.
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Because some things have no solution. Russia after Stalin was something dead. The nation was basically a zombie, the most that could be reforms pushing the collapse further. Communism is really an ideological cancer.
Kurd Gossemer said:
It should also be noticed Japan had a huge surplus of city population who were in stable times where merchants grew rich and literacy was high compared to other places, meaning they had several factors that allowed them to essentially be left alone to industrialize and even then it took decades of work and state mandated policy to get it off the ground.
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Another important factor is the fact that China is a much more appetizing prey than Japan. European abuse of the Chinese generated action by the Japanese government, which managed to reform in time to prevent its colonization. That and the fact that they fought at sea with Russia, and Russian naval power at the time was terrible. Any other serious European power would have crushed the Japanese navy.
 
Kurd Gossemer

Kurd Gossemer

holycookie said:
Yes, at the same time Stalin killed basically everyone who was competent in the Soviet army. Furthermore, Stalin out of fear killed the entire Russian middle class. That killed once and for all the idea of a rich and prosperous Russia. The USA was very lucky to have an opponent with such stupid and destructive ideas.
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Effects of the purges in the army are exaggerated tbh, some were indeed killed but the great majority of the people purged either got their old positions back or were simply transferred to other places(like Zhukov to Siberia and even then it wasn't such a bad position given he defeated the Japanese), in fact many Red Army commanders were just as unbelieving as Stalin that Germany would attack and if they did they could simply counter attack and they had to learn during the course of the war and eventually implemented the Deep Battle doctrine that helped them hammer in German forces.


Like yeah many purges and collectivization were bad but in the former case Stalin actually delegated that to local administrators because he imagined they would have a better idea of who needed to go and many of them used the opportunity to climb through the ranks(including the likes of Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev) and yeah collectivization was done against the wishes of specialists and it resulted in what it did, but I wouldn't call the USSR stupid or destructive by any means.

holycookie said:
Another important factor is the fact that China is a much more appetizing prey than Japan. European abuse of the Chinese generated action by the Japanese government, which managed to reform in time to prevent its colonization. That and the fact that they fought at sea with Russia, and Russian naval power at the time was terrible. Any other serious European power would have crushed the Japanese navy.
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There's that too, China was simply too attractive when it came of what it could offer and a huge population to sell things to, not to mention Japan simply wasn't seen as important compared to the rest of Asia, what was there could be found easier in other places, no wonder the most thing the Western nations did was put unequal treaties on them instead of full on invasion to protect their economic interests
 

holycookie

Kurd Gossemer said:
in fact many Red Army commanders were just as unbelieving as Stalin that Germany would attack
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Another problem was that many of the decisions had to be confirmed by Stalin, which greatly delayed Russian reactions.
Kurd Gossemer said:
eventually implemented the Deep Battle doctrine that helped them hammer in German forces.
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That was one advantage of theirs, another was the fact how crazy the Nazis were. Especially since in the beginning the Germans received a lot of support from Soviet minorities like the Ukrainians. A less crazy regime would use these discontented minorities.
Kurd Gossemer said:
Stalin actually delegated that to local administrators because he imagined they would have a better idea of who needed to go and many of them used the opportunity to climb through the ranks
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This is an error that occurs in very large countries. Normally it is better to have someone from the capital study the local dispute and listen to local opinions, but with the final decision being made by someone outside. This prevents this type of behavior.
Kurd Gossemer said:
but I wouldn't call the USSR stupid or destructive by any means.
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I would call it, the Soviet Union destroyed the Sea of Azov, killed its middle class, destroyed the nation's birth rate, strengthened local minorities against the central government, was violently corrupt, among several other examples. This did not diminish achievements such as advancement in space. But the URRS as a whole destroyed the East Slavic world. In the same way that CCP destroyed a good part of Chinese culture and history (during its cultural revolution), birth rate, ecosystem among other things. There is a reason why all the countries that freed themselves from communism became violently against it (Eastern Europe for example)
Kurd Gossemer said:
not to mention Japan simply wasn't seen as important compared to the rest of Asia, what was there could be found easier in other places, no wonder the most thing the Western nations did was put unequal treaties on them instead of full on invasion to protect their economic interests
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Japanese colonization could well have occurred, the colonization of Viatnam for example occurred due to the death of French Catholic priests, which caused a strong reaction from France.
 

octoberman

Banned
holycookie said:
Another important factor is the fact that China is a much more appetizing prey than Japan. European abuse of the Chinese generated action by the Japanese government, which managed to reform in time to prevent its colonization. That and the fact that they fought at sea with Russia, and Russian naval power at the time was terrible. Any other serious European power would have crushed the Japanese navy.
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you got it reverse China suffered more than Japan because it's Emperor didn't even recognize the west's Sovereignty and supported local attacks on them until they destroyed his palace and occupied capital where Japan surrendered before the west even fired a shot and didn't support local attacks on them that sort of diplomacy prevented it's colonization and enabled it's industrialization not the other way around . Japan defeated Russia because Russia was on the other side world where Japan was fighting at home. An attack on the Baltic by IJN would've been a total disaster.
 
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