Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Something to consider is that Destroyers were not ideal for anti submarine operations, the best vessel for anti submarine warfare was the Frigate, as it had the range to cross the Atlantic and carried the right weapons fit for this role. While Corvettes are second best, especially once they had improved the initial design, by extending the four deck. And the gradual introduction of escort carriers, MAC ships, and LRMP, will do more to improve convoy results, than any number of Destroyers.

RR.
 
Fewer ships damaged means less time and resources going on repairs, and more open for new builds. In addition, they need less Lend-lease, since they're doing a lot better themselves.
 
Last edited:
In regards to Vichy & FNA; Algeria was still considered to be part of Metropolitan France at this time. (The same as Northern Ireland to the British, or Alaska to the Americans).

I believe this will have considerable political ramifications should FNA & Algeria change sides as it isn’t just “any old colony”. And as soon as Algeria aligns with Free France, or Italy is invaded, I think Vichy will be invaded.

The interesting thing would be if Petain & Darlan decide to “do something” when Case Anton occurs. The Fleet in Toulon had the fuel to reach Algeria, and should it escape and Vichy resist in some form, they may be able to keep on the good side of FDR.
 
Another factor is that Britain's better performance, combined with the Americans now being in the war too, might see Portugal allowing the Allies to base aircraft out of the Azores, which would significantly inprove the area the Allies can patrol.
 
French North Africa is aware, uncomfortably aware, of all of the points made here recently. However they want to be convinced that the France that will fall to the Germans upon changing sides will be liberated reasonably soon. Swapping sides (apologies, choosing a side) and being stuck with France Proper remaining occupied for a stalemate of years and risking a communist Soviet backed lead within France is not something they could contemplate. Vichy is still the descendant of the pre war government and thus seen as legitimised to some extent whilst the Free French are a self proclaimed set of adventurers. Bold and patriotic (don’t mention Dakar or Mers El-Kiber or Syria) to be sure but do you want them on the Board of Directors?

The. Commonwealth will have to find ways to convince them that they can liberate France Proper and do so reasonably soon otherwise French North Africa will remain on the fence. I do wonder if they really matter too much? Can they be left to mind their own business? As long as they host no Axis forces other than the Armistice Comission supervisors they control North Africa up to Libya at no cost the the Commonwealth. If the trigger to Case Anton becomes a Commonwealth invasion of the France Proper then the Germans, at a critical moment, have to both resist that invasion and occupy Vichy. Whilst the Vichy forces, who are not inconsiderable, if lightly armed, may be able to render a meaningful resistance to Anton. At least long enough to allow the establishment of an effective Commonwealth beach head.

As has been said, by now the butterflies have flown far enough to render OTL a questionable strategic guide.
 
9 March 1942. Bataan, Philippines.
9 March 1942. Bataan, Philippines.

The survivors of 192nd and 194th Tank Battalion had become the Provisional Tank Group, and had been either defending the coastline or other important places, trying to prevent being turned into pillboxes. The men, like all on the Bataan peninsula were sick, hungry and fearful.

On 7 March, the Japanese launched an attack supported by artillery and aircraft. A large force of Japanese troops came over Mount Samat and descended down the south face of the volcano. This attack wiped out two divisions of defenders and left a large area of the defensive line open to the Japanese. The next morning, the 57th Infantry, Philippine Scouts, supported by C Company tanks, with only seven tanks, attempted to restore the line, but Japanese infiltrators prevented this from happening.

Companies B and D, 192nd, and A Company, 194th, with all the remaining tanks were preparing for a suicide attack against the Japanese in an attempt to stop the advance. At 18:00hrs 8 March, the tank battalion commanders received this order: “You will make plans, to be communicated to company commanders only, and be prepared to destroy within one hour after receipt by radio, or other means, of the word ‘CRASH’, all tanks and combat vehicles, arms, ammunition, gas, and radios: reserving sufficient trucks to close to rear echelons as soon as accomplished.”

At about 06:45 the tank battalion commanders received the order “crash.” The tank crews circled their tanks. Each tank fired an armour-piercing shell into the engine of the tank in front of it. They also opened the gasoline cocks inside the tank compartments and dropped hand grenades into the tanks. Most of the company waited in their bivouac for the Japanese to make contact, while others attempted to reach Corregidor which had not surrendered.
 
Obviously this is ahead of OTL. The reason being that the Japanese 48th Division: From 28 February 1942:
As far as Intelligence could surmise, the 48th Japanese Division was the new formation. They had been pulled back and rested when the American and Philippine forces had retired to the Bataan Peninsula. It was possible that the 48th Division was meant to continue the conquest of the Netherlands East Indies, but perhaps had to be used to finish off MacArthur’s force. If indeed that was the case the situation on Bataan would likely take a turn for the worse very quickly.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Can the British be persuaded to just leave the French in North Africa alone to just carry on without having to change sides, far better to ask why would they want to ? At this stage of the conflict, leaving the French in North Africa to remain wedded to the Vichy regime, has very few advantages for the British, and numerous disadvantages. Leaving a potentially hostile area that lies across a vital supply line, is a very bad idea, Britain wants the airfields and ports in FNA to secure its supply line to its territories in the Middle East, East Africa, Indian Ocean, India, and the Far East, and reduce the transit times for its merchant and RN fleets. It also wants to encourage the remaining French overseas territories in Africa and the Caribbean to change sides as well. As this will increase the opportunities to trade for vital resources, and reduce the need to keep an eye on these areas, plus provide airfields on the African west coast to improve anti submarine operations. Basically it’s time for the French in North Africa to shit or get off the pot, it’s doesn’t matter to the British what they feel about their relationship with Metropolitan France, given the relative strengths of the two nations, the British will soon be so exasperated by French intransigence, that the gloves will come off, and the British cross the border and effect regime change. As for the events in the Philippines, the chances of the Americans especially MacArthur having much say in events in the Far East, are rapidly going down the toilet. The big question is how much longer can the Americans hold out, how do they get Mac out of there with the least embarrassment, and what do they do with him once he has been evacuated.

RR.
 
I must say that I very much agree with @Ramp-Rat. The colonies will see the writing on the wall, especially since British have the ability to invade, if they wished to do so, and forces availlable to them are substantial. And you can certainly expect divided loyalties, low morale and other issues which plagued Vichy Forces, which would make defense an even more doubtful prospect.
Put the Free French in the front of the advance, with rest of the Comonwealth units trying to act as French as possible, and it may work out without too much bloodshed.

But, being more realistic, Weygand could go for it, for reasons both personal and political, a way to advance his career and to make sure that France has a say how France is liberated. To make sure that, I do not know, that upjumped Colonel does not decide to make himself president after the war or whatever. You never know.
 
There is a realpolitik consideration for the colonial Vichy French at present that can't be overlooked.

As @Ramp-Rat points out there are a lot of good reasons for Britain to want the French colonies on side. At some point the change is going to happen. The question for people like Weygand is do they want De Gaulle leading the French forces or not. If they oppose the British that will be the outcome.
 
Obviously this is ahead of OTL. The reason being that the Japanese 48th Division: From 28 February 1942:
It seems that they would send the 48th to Malaysia as that situation is deteriorating so badly. I would think they would think that the Philippines is contained for now. Admittedly they can't use Manilla bay but is that more important to their overall plan than Malaysia? Manilla bay they can come back to.
 
It seems that they would send the 48th to Malaysia as that situation is deteriorating so badly. I would think they would think that the Philippines is contained for now. Admittedly they can't use Manilla bay but is that more important to their overall plan than Malaysia? Manilla bay they can come back to.
It can be argued that securing Philippines would be more important, because it is between Japanese Home Islands and DEI with its oil, an important objective for the Japanese.
 
The fact that the Japanese aren't really getting any oil out of the place ATM...
But Japanese objective of the war was to seize these badly needed resources, and PH would be critical in securing the route.
There is also a possibility of Japanese having some issues with shipping, which could also mean that the Division in question ITTL has to stay?
 
Fewer ships damaged means less time and resources going on repairs, and more open for new builds. In addition, they need less Lend-lease, since they're doing a lot better themselves.
Fewer ships sunk means more ships need time for regular maintenance in terms of boilers being overhauled, gun barrels replaced, and so forth - possibly including magnetic degaussing of vessels without their own on board equipment to counter magnetic detection weapons. (Although I think degaussing had been made into a relatively quick and simple process, as the original timeline war progressed.)
Interesting naval question, if there is a net saving of dockyard hours though, is does Vanguard launch earlier and/or are the Lions sufficiently progressed that Churchill does not cancel them?
 
Obviously this is ahead of OTL. The reason being that the Japanese 48th Division: From 28 February 1942:
Imperial Japanese finishing off the Philippines, so that they can at least free up the forces there not needed for mopping up and occupation duties for use elsewhere? Makes sense, I guess.
Going to really turn up the pressure on Roosevelt and the US chiefs of staff though if Bataan falls faster than in the original timeline whilst the Dutch are still holding in Java and Sumatra and the British commonwealth is throwing back the Imperial Japanese in SE Asia. Okay, Roosevelt can point to the Texans* (?) who help throw back the Imperial Japanese in Timor or wherever it was as American heroes fighting powerfully to defeat the enemy where American forces are not surrounded and cut off from aid in Imperial Japanese controlled waters. Lots of medals all round and celebrity status for those Texans (?).

* I think it was Texans. I may be misremembering.
 
Fewer ships sunk means more ships need time for regular maintenance in terms of boilers being overhauled, gun barrels replaced, and so forth - possibly including magnetic degaussing of vessels without their own on board equipment to counter magnetic detection weapons. (Although I think degaussing had been made into a relatively quick and simple process, as the original timeline war progressed.)
That maintenance was needed either way.
 
That maintenance was needed either way.
I'm sceptical the WW2 carrier Ark Royal received much maintenance after she hit the sea bed in the original timeline in November 1941. Ditto the battleship Prince of Wales after the Imperial Japanese sank it in December 1941.
I think at least one of these ships is still afloat in this timeline, and will require maintenance it never needed (on account of being out of the war, permanently) in the original timeline.
 
I'm sceptical the WW2 carrier Ark Royal received much maintenance after she hit the sea bed in the original timeline in November 1941. Ditto the battleship Prince of Wales after the Imperial Japanese sank it in December 1941.
I think at least one of these ships is still afloat in this timeline, and will require maintenance it never needed (on account of being out of the war, permanently) in the original timeline.
Okay, let me rephrase, those ships might need a couple of months of maintenance, but for that, will give at least a couple of years of service, thus, their not being sunk is a net benefit. Besides, boiler maintenance isn't nearly as expensive as repair work.
 
Top