Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Thank-you for reminding me of the previous events in the Mediterranean, which will have made any attempt raid Alexandria, incredibly difficult. Which only reenforces the extent of the political and military capital, that would have to be expended, to achieve such an attack. In regards to the shortage of aircraft, particularly fighters in both the Mediterranean and Far East, this can be traced to the failure of the Air Ministry in London. Their fixation with the possibility of a renewed German bombing campaign against the UK, ignoring the fact that the Luftwaffe was fully committed to the campaign in the Soviet Union and Mediterranean. And thus didn’t have the assets to spare to renew a campaign against the UK, other than tip and run attacks by fighter bombers. And their persistence in carrying out costly fighter sweeps over France, when they could have significantly reduced the fighters retained in the UK, especially the more modern Spitfires, was to my mind criminal. Had the British Air Ministry made a true analysis of the situation vis a vis Germany, post the Blitz and after the invasion of the Soviet Union. Along with seriously looking at the results of the various operations carried out over France, which were very wasteful and achieved little to nothing of what the were intended to do. This would have allowed the home defence fighter force to be reduced to two thirds the minimum requirement, while waiting for new production of aircraft and pilots to bring it up to full strength by early 43, the earliest it would be needed. And thus they could have released far more aircraft, especially fighters for use in the Mediterranean and Far East. As is ITTL, given just how overextended and weak the Japanese forces were that are invading Burma, and how little chance there is of them getting reinforcements from Malaya. Unless they can win an overwhelming victory inside the first month, the Japanese have just opened up another hard to support front, in an area where the British once they get their act together will have all the advantages. Yes the British will struggle to supply six divisions through Rangoon, along with providing facilities to move the inbound supplies in transit to China over the Burma road, and export the rice, tin and timber, that they normally did. But within six months, and with a great deal of effort, plus typical British improvisation, something will have been worked out.
Hm, maybe the British can't support six divisions are combat readiness, but if they can do so four divisions, with the remaining two in subsistence, that will give them a major reserve, and allow them to rotate troops out when needed.
 
It seems to me that the forces assigned to Burma will be more than enough.

According to the book "Disaster in the Far East 1940-1942"


Once the initial panic evaporates, I think they will think of their estimates and might find that concentrating 6 divisions against at best 2 IJA divisions might be an overkill, especially when the Malay Barrier* is in mortal danger. Moreover, they cannot sustain a 6 division army at the thai border or to advance in Thailand, not before massive infrastructue is built.

*The Malay Barrier includes also the Sumatra-Java-Timor line.
If your source is citing British thinking of the time (I'm not clear if that's the case or not) as being that the Imperial Japanese could only support two divisions overland, I'm not sure that that's useful as an indication of what the Imperial Japanese could actually use. it seems to me that the original timeline British turned underestimating what the Imperial Japanese could do into an artform...

Further Edit:
I think what I'm trying to get at here is the question of is that 'two divisions supported overland' a 1940's British guesstimate, or a 2020 eight-decades-of-cold-hard-analysis figure?
 
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From McLeod’s point of view the only real way to defend Burma would be to win a clear victory over the invading army, forcing them back. Depending on the size of the Japanese army that invaded, if Alexander and Slim had enough time to get their Corps and Divisions ready, and concentrated, then perhaps the Japanese could be defeated. Having small units, even Brigades, spread out trying to defend too many places would invite piecemeal destruction. Of course, having a large force concentrated, if that were destroyed or even cut off, would hand the Japanese a great victory. General Auchinleck was well aware of the problem and wanted to make sure that Alexander when he arrived would keep McLeod around, perhaps on his Staff, to help make the transition.

...

Some of the Indian Air Force squadrons were currently transitioning onto Lysanders, but what Manning needed now was fighter aircraft. Currently all he had for the defence of Burma were sixteen Buffalos of No 67 (Fighter) Squadron and twenty-one P.40s of the American Volunteer Group. These had been based at Kunming for the defence of the Burma Road but had been specially detached by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek for the defence of Rangoon. There was no point in having the Burma Road if ships bringing supplies for China couldn’t dock at Rangoon and the supplies carried by train to Lashio. Pre-war estimates were that 280 aircraft was the minimum necessary to meet an invading enemy. Manning was pleading for at least another squadron of Hurricanes and one of Blenheim bombers to carry the fight to the enemy, even if it was only a raid on Victoria Point to let the Japanese know Burma wouldn't be a complete walk-over.

While having some forces in Burma is no doubt necessary as a totally denuded area could be seized with minimal forces by any enemy, I too cannot see how the IJA would be expected to spend soldiers it has had to equip from dwindling stores and transported overseas to fight in what would to them be a theatre of less than tertiary importance at a time when seizing the oil derricks of Borneo intact as quickly as possible and at least knocking the British Empire forces in Malaya off balance enough that they could not interfere with the vital resource extraction the Japanese need from the Dutch East Indies.

On another topic, Venom is just about last 'V' word I for one would associate with a main battle tank. Is the naming scheme supposed to be confusing on purpose? That an enemy who perhaps gets access to a shipping manifest might think that a shipment of Vanguards has nothing to do with AA guns and not consider it likely that a 'Venom' is any kind of AFV at all?

Since Valiant and Victor do make sense as tank type names, I would submit that there is hardly a push to give confusing names on purpose. I can think off the top of my head names I am sure are more suitable which I do not recall as yet being in use in this timeline:
Valorous, Venator, Varangian, Vulcan, Vespasian, Vengeful, Verity, Vixen (granted, it would fit a light AFV like an armoured car better, but this only needs to be better than 'Venom')
 
It seems to me that the forces assigned to Burma will be more than enough.

According to the book "Disaster in the Far East 1940-1942"


Once the initial panic evaporates, I think they will think of their estimates and might find that concentrating 6 divisions against at best 2 IJA divisions might be an overkill, especially when the Malay Barrier* is in mortal danger. Moreover, they cannot sustain a 6 division army at the thai border or to advance in Thailand, not before massive infrastructue is built.

*The Malay Barrier includes also the Sumatra-Java-Timor line.
But having 6 Divisions available to swap out tired units (through casualties and sickness etc) Is quite important even if its a 1 : 2 ratio of deployed units to reserve/training/LOC units.
 
I think what I'm trying to get at here is the question of is that 'two divisions supported overland' a 1940's British guesstimate, or a 2020 eight-decades-of-cold-hard-analysis figure?
It is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.

The only way for the estimate to be wrong is for the IJA to send more formations but with very limited artillery. Arguably that would be an even worse decision to make.

But having 6 Divisions available to swap out tired units (through casualties and sickness etc) Is quite important even if its a 1 : 2 ratio of deployed units to reserve/training/LOC units.
Well, I would agree that 4 divisions in a 1:2 ratio would be just perfect.

When it comes to 1:3 ratio, would the Commonwealth prioritize Burma over a better ratio in Malaya where the enemy main effort takes place ? Or would Australia try to achieve some superiority or even parity at the rest of the Barrier (Java, Timor) ?
 
If your source is citing British thinking of the time (I'm not clear if that's the case or not) as being that the Imperial Japanese could only support two divisions overland, I'm not sure that that's useful as an indication of what the Imperial Japanese could actually use. it seems to me that the original timeline British turned underestimating what the Imperial Japanese could do into an artform...

Further Edit:
I think what I'm trying to get at here is the question of is that 'two divisions supported overland' a 1940's British guesstimate, or a 2020 eight-decades-of-cold-hard-analysis figure?

It is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.

I agree with @Look More Closely Later, the British Army estimate pre war of what was and was not possible in the Far East was often completely wrong, see the impracticability of using Tanks in Malaya.
While I am sure they were correct that the road network was such that you could only support 2 1940 pattern British Infantry Divisions, i.e. fully motorised supply train, 5 Royal Artillery Regiments (3 field, 1 AT, 1 AA) all motorised etc. the IJA had a much lighter footprint and while in OTL the Japanese only attacked with 2 Divisions I suspect that you should take any British estimate of what the infrastructure could support and double it for how many Japanese units it could support.
Of course it should be said that a 1940 Pattern British Infantry Division has considerably greater fighting capability than an equivalent Japanese Division, all that artillery is very useful. Whether it's twice as powerful as a Japanese unit depends more on the specific terrain of the battlefield, the quality of the units involved and their leadership.
 
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Excellent updates, the light casemated vehicle sounds very much like the Alecto - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alecto_(SPG) and came with either a 6lb AT gun version or one carrying a 94mm short howitzer.

Which was a very small vehicle

1379648229_861262_10151282985027467_1121206804_o.jpg


The new tank also sounds good, a kind of proto Centurion.
 
It is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.

The only way for the estimate to be wrong is for the IJA to send more formations but with very limited artillery. Arguably that would be an even worse decision to make.


Well, I would agree that 4 divisions in a 1:2 ratio would be just perfect.

When it comes to 1:3 ratio, would the Commonwealth prioritize Burma over a better ratio in Malaya where the enemy main effort takes place ? Or would Australia try to achieve some superiority or even parity at the rest of the Barrier (Java, Timor) ?
An eventual ratio - not a dec 1941 one I don't think that would be achievable

And the Burma and Black cats (14th Indian) are very very green at this stage - the Burma Division little more than Armed police units and some other units thrown together and given the title 'Division'

Initially those 2 units would be Lines Of Communication units while they complete the training and get a full table of equipment and personnel

OTL they were the main combat units available

Here we have the 10th Indian and the 9th British divisions arriving along with the African division and another unit (the 5th Indian?)

So I am looking at post 1942 rain season (Started April 1942 ended Nov 1942) with the understanding that with delays inflicted by the improved Malaya campaign and hopefully a Slim and 10th Indian led victory in Eastern Burma will push out any Japanese Burma campaign to effectively 1943

If at all, that is, as the Japanese campaign in Burma relied on the ability to move most of the forces and logistics by sea to Rangoon which hopefully will not be the case TTL
 
16 December 1941. Kota Bharu, Malaya.
16 December 1941. Kota Bharu, Malaya.

For a week now the men of 9th Indian Division had been fighting the Japanese. The first battles on the beaches had ultimately been successful, but a few Indian Battalions had taken casualties, especially 3rd Bn, 17th Dogra Regiment who had been defending the invasion beaches. Once the fighting had finished on 9 December, Major-General Arthur Barstow had redeployed 8th and 9th Infantry Brigades to defend the south bank of the River Kelantan. As the first elements of 22nd Indian Brigade had arrived at the railhead at Kuala Krai the 5th Battalion, 11th Sikh Regiment took up positions to defend the local area, along with “A” Company Malaya Regiment. The men of the 8th Brigade held the river from the sea to the road bridge at Pasir Mas. 9th Brigade then took over following the river past Guillemard Bridge, where the railway crossed the river. 22nd Brigade’s two Battalions would link with 9th Brigade from Kuala Krai.

1st Battalion, 13th Frontier Force Rifles had crossed the river towards the Thai border on 10 December, with elements of 42nd Field Park Company (Royal Bombay Sappers and Miners) to delay the Japanese by destroying a railway bridge and as many ferries over the River Golok and other boats as possible. This had been done successfully. The Sappers had brought with them some land mines which they sowed in various spots where crossing the river was most likely.

It was a sixty mile trip from the main landing beaches at Patani, and since some of Japanese 5th Division had been up to the Ledge above Yala, the Japanese came in two columns. One column followed the coast road and the other the railway line. The work of 13th Frontier Force Rifles and the Sappers did delay both columns by about a day. On the coast, 21 Mountain Battery and 73 Field Battery, Royal Artillery, (eight 4.5-inch howitzers) provided the artillery support for 8th Brigade. They had time before the invasion to organise pre-determined coordinates with the infantry for immediate barrage support. There had been four reconditioned 18-pdrs brought into service by 3rd Bn, 17th Dogra Regiment to give direct fire support on the beach. Two of these had been destroyed, but Havildar Dille Ram, the Battalion Gunnery Instructor, who had made effective use of them on the night of 8 December, had the surviving two positioned to fire across the river.

Brigadier ‘Billy’ Keys had kept 1st Bn 13th Frontier Force Rifles in reserve and had two Matilda II tanks with them. The problem Keys faced was the possibility of another attempt to land troops from the sea. Even if it wasn’t another fully fledged invasion force, just a large force carried on a variety of boats taken from the Thai population would put 8th Brigade’s position in jeopardy.

Major-General Barstow’s main reserve consisted primarily of 1st Hyderabad Infantry and 1st Battalion of Mysore Infantry, both Indian State Forces. With all three airfields completed destroyed, there was no longer any need to defend them. Neither of these two Battalions had been involved in the fighting so far, and Barstow was worried about whether they would be likely to distinguish themselves in battle. He had reinforced both Battalions each with a Squadron of 1st Duke of York’s Own Skinners Horse, 5th Division’s Reconnaissance Regiment. Equipped with Indian Pattern Carriers, some light tanks and universal carriers would have to respond to any beach landing, though the heavy rain had caused their mobility to be severely limited. The reality was that Barstow’s orders were to hold the Japanese as far north as possible, but to be prepared to withdraw by rail to join 11th Indian Division if the situation deteriorated too much.

The first few attempts by the Japanese to cross the river had been repulsed quite easily. Between the artillery and pre-positioned machine gunners covering the probable assembly areas, the early Japanese units weren’t able to get properly set. The arrival of the Japanese III Bn of 5th Field Artillery began to have an effect, as did a couple of bombing and strafing attacks by Japanese aircraft.

Under the cover of a torrential downpour III Bn 42nd Infantry Regiment managed to make a crossing on the shoulder of the river’s curve between Kota Bharu and Pasir Mas. 2nd Battalion, 10th Baluch Regiment were responsible for this section, and C Company was all but wiped out by the Japanese, though at considerable cost to themselves. 1st Bn 13th Frontier Force Rifles, with the two Matilda II tanks began the counter-attack and were lucky enough to arrive on the Japanese flank, rolling them up as they sealed the breach in the line. Sergeant Tommy Docherty and his crew had managed to get his Matilda II repaired and his tank along with Sergeant Bill Morris had played an essential part in rolling up the Japanese troops, who once again found they had nothing to stop the Matilda II tanks.

Much to the surprise of the Indian troops none of the Japanese surrendered, even when they would otherwise have no option but to do so. It made the last few hours a very bloody affair. Some Japanese troops attempted to swim back over the river, it wasn’t clear how many made it back.

Once the riverbank was back in Indian hands the butchers bill was 160 killed and about double that wounded. The Japanese loss was probably the entirety of the III Battalion. The Indian troops had been advised to do their best to destroy as many boats used by the Japanese as possible, to prevent them being used again. 15th Indian Field Ambulance were busy bringing the wounded back to the Division's Field Hospital, while the Brigade’s Transport Company (Royal Indian Army Service Corps) brought forward ammunition, water and rations for the men and guns.
161241.2.gif
 
Hm, Wikipedia gives the size of a battalion as 300-1,000. So the Indians have inflicted a casualty ration of at least 2:1, and maybe rather more than that. Things are going really poorly for the Japanese.
 
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