Hm, maybe the British can't support six divisions are combat readiness, but if they can do so four divisions, with the remaining two in subsistence, that will give them a major reserve, and allow them to rotate troops out when needed.Thank-you for reminding me of the previous events in the Mediterranean, which will have made any attempt raid Alexandria, incredibly difficult. Which only reenforces the extent of the political and military capital, that would have to be expended, to achieve such an attack. In regards to the shortage of aircraft, particularly fighters in both the Mediterranean and Far East, this can be traced to the failure of the Air Ministry in London. Their fixation with the possibility of a renewed German bombing campaign against the UK, ignoring the fact that the Luftwaffe was fully committed to the campaign in the Soviet Union and Mediterranean. And thus didn’t have the assets to spare to renew a campaign against the UK, other than tip and run attacks by fighter bombers. And their persistence in carrying out costly fighter sweeps over France, when they could have significantly reduced the fighters retained in the UK, especially the more modern Spitfires, was to my mind criminal. Had the British Air Ministry made a true analysis of the situation vis a vis Germany, post the Blitz and after the invasion of the Soviet Union. Along with seriously looking at the results of the various operations carried out over France, which were very wasteful and achieved little to nothing of what the were intended to do. This would have allowed the home defence fighter force to be reduced to two thirds the minimum requirement, while waiting for new production of aircraft and pilots to bring it up to full strength by early 43, the earliest it would be needed. And thus they could have released far more aircraft, especially fighters for use in the Mediterranean and Far East. As is ITTL, given just how overextended and weak the Japanese forces were that are invading Burma, and how little chance there is of them getting reinforcements from Malaya. Unless they can win an overwhelming victory inside the first month, the Japanese have just opened up another hard to support front, in an area where the British once they get their act together will have all the advantages. Yes the British will struggle to supply six divisions through Rangoon, along with providing facilities to move the inbound supplies in transit to China over the Burma road, and export the rice, tin and timber, that they normally did. But within six months, and with a great deal of effort, plus typical British improvisation, something will have been worked out.
If your source is citing British thinking of the time (I'm not clear if that's the case or not) as being that the Imperial Japanese could only support two divisions overland, I'm not sure that that's useful as an indication of what the Imperial Japanese could actually use. it seems to me that the original timeline British turned underestimating what the Imperial Japanese could do into an artform...It seems to me that the forces assigned to Burma will be more than enough.
According to the book "Disaster in the Far East 1940-1942"
Once the initial panic evaporates, I think they will think of their estimates and might find that concentrating 6 divisions against at best 2 IJA divisions might be an overkill, especially when the Malay Barrier* is in mortal danger. Moreover, they cannot sustain a 6 division army at the thai border or to advance in Thailand, not before massive infrastructue is built.
*The Malay Barrier includes also the Sumatra-Java-Timor line.
From McLeod’s point of view the only real way to defend Burma would be to win a clear victory over the invading army, forcing them back. Depending on the size of the Japanese army that invaded, if Alexander and Slim had enough time to get their Corps and Divisions ready, and concentrated, then perhaps the Japanese could be defeated. Having small units, even Brigades, spread out trying to defend too many places would invite piecemeal destruction. Of course, having a large force concentrated, if that were destroyed or even cut off, would hand the Japanese a great victory. General Auchinleck was well aware of the problem and wanted to make sure that Alexander when he arrived would keep McLeod around, perhaps on his Staff, to help make the transition.
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Some of the Indian Air Force squadrons were currently transitioning onto Lysanders, but what Manning needed now was fighter aircraft. Currently all he had for the defence of Burma were sixteen Buffalos of No 67 (Fighter) Squadron and twenty-one P.40s of the American Volunteer Group. These had been based at Kunming for the defence of the Burma Road but had been specially detached by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek for the defence of Rangoon. There was no point in having the Burma Road if ships bringing supplies for China couldn’t dock at Rangoon and the supplies carried by train to Lashio. Pre-war estimates were that 280 aircraft was the minimum necessary to meet an invading enemy. Manning was pleading for at least another squadron of Hurricanes and one of Blenheim bombers to carry the fight to the enemy, even if it was only a raid on Victoria Point to let the Japanese know Burma wouldn't be a complete walk-over.
But having 6 Divisions available to swap out tired units (through casualties and sickness etc) Is quite important even if its a 1 : 2 ratio of deployed units to reserve/training/LOC units.It seems to me that the forces assigned to Burma will be more than enough.
According to the book "Disaster in the Far East 1940-1942"
Once the initial panic evaporates, I think they will think of their estimates and might find that concentrating 6 divisions against at best 2 IJA divisions might be an overkill, especially when the Malay Barrier* is in mortal danger. Moreover, they cannot sustain a 6 division army at the thai border or to advance in Thailand, not before massive infrastructue is built.
*The Malay Barrier includes also the Sumatra-Java-Timor line.
Hello,I said ages ago, and still maintain, that any successor to Valiant and Victor should be named Vulcan.
Although Vanquish s also apt.
hehe nice one (the german one was called wirbelwind(whirlwind/tornado))Hello,
Vortex (AA vehicle)
Let's see what else we have under V...About about Vicar? Vicarious? Victim? (NGL, a MBT called the Victimiser would A) Never happen; B) Be AWESOME.) Venal? Voluminous?
It is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.I think what I'm trying to get at here is the question of is that 'two divisions supported overland' a 1940's British guesstimate, or a 2020 eight-decades-of-cold-hard-analysis figure?
Well, I would agree that 4 divisions in a 1:2 ratio would be just perfect.But having 6 Divisions available to swap out tired units (through casualties and sickness etc) Is quite important even if its a 1 : 2 ratio of deployed units to reserve/training/LOC units.
If your source is citing British thinking of the time (I'm not clear if that's the case or not) as being that the Imperial Japanese could only support two divisions overland, I'm not sure that that's useful as an indication of what the Imperial Japanese could actually use. it seems to me that the original timeline British turned underestimating what the Imperial Japanese could do into an artform...
Further Edit:
I think what I'm trying to get at here is the question of is that 'two divisions supported overland' a 1940's British guesstimate, or a 2020 eight-decades-of-cold-hard-analysis figure?
It is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.
An eventual ratio - not a dec 1941 one I don't think that would be achievableIt is a 1940-1941 British estimate. But I don't really see why they would be wrong. Indeed they could underestimate the fighting ability of the IJA and the quality of their officers. But this is different : it is about road capacity. It is possible for the Japanese to advance in Burma without Malaya falling, but it would be extremely difficult to fight a prolonged campaign against a peer opponent before the Burma Railroad is built.
The only way for the estimate to be wrong is for the IJA to send more formations but with very limited artillery. Arguably that would be an even worse decision to make.
Well, I would agree that 4 divisions in a 1:2 ratio would be just perfect.
When it comes to 1:3 ratio, would the Commonwealth prioritize Burma over a better ratio in Malaya where the enemy main effort takes place ? Or would Australia try to achieve some superiority or even parity at the rest of the Barrier (Java, Timor) ?