Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

So, the big difference with OTL Pearl Harbour raid is that the Hapanese have sunk an aircraft carrier besides the battleships (and as result they sufferd slightly more casualties). The loss of Lexington will be offset (partially) however by the presence of Ark Royal in the Pacific plus the survival of the 2 British battleships. I hope that leads the Amricans being lesscocky against the British...
Also, Ireland is not going to participate very actively in the war (at least at first) but the logistics for the Allied anti-submarine campaign will be much simpler with the usage of Irish ports and airports. I would like to see however an Irish brigade participate in the liberation of France!
Finally, ΗΝ Salamis the only active Allied battleship in the Med? That is a nice bargaining chip for Dragoumis (but also an eneormous pressure on the HN). How many Italian battleships are active at this time ITTL?
While I can't remember exact numbers off the top of my head, I do remember that the Taranto raid was even more successful in this timeline, so the Italian navy is in shape to set sail.

If I can remember, every battleship took some damage, but one of them was basically fully functional, but the other 2 would take months to fix up. Salamis can't take out that battleship by itself however, so it's not like it can properly contest the med without ground based air support.

I wonder what impact a much stronger Britain in the East will have. If they can prevent the fall of Singapore, then it basically cuts off the Japanese from Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, etc. It would also do wonders for British morale, as the combined loss of Singapore and Hong Kong was an enormous hit both to domestic confidence, and colonial prestige, with many groups which were previously loyal-ish reconsidering when it was apparent that the UK was so weak. ITTL the UK is fighting actively all over, North Africa, greece, the Middle East, and Asia.

Historiographically, I imagine that greater emphasis would be placed on the UK's role compared to OTL, where they are often the forgotten third partner of the big three. France will also benefit, from the fighting French army serving so heroically after the fall. I don't know if these morale/prestige/legacy benefits will have any material good in the immediate postwar however.

I did read an incredibly detailed thread about the difference of the war ending in 1944 due to a normandy equivalent in 43, and how it would have major impacts on Britain's war debt, and ability to handle reconstruction.
 
Lexington was quite important for midway I think. It's loss is significant.
Finally, ΗΝ Salamis the only active Allied battleship in the Med? That is a nice bargaining chip for Dragoumis (but also an eneormous pressure on the HN). How many Italian battleships are active at this time ITTL?
Idk but considering the Brits would be moving to counter Japan the HN would be more important. The Italians got punched in the face in the seas of Greece though so they are not in a prime position to strike.
 
Dublin, December 8th, 1941
Very good timing by Collins. Soon, the Allies will invest in Ireland in order to upgrade its infrastructure. I think just for political reasons, an Irish formation will have to get trained for deployment in NWE.

"Lady Lex" would explode and sink
Lexington was quite important for midway I think. It's loss is significant.

I would argue that compared to OTL, the Americans will have at least the same number of CVs come spring 1942. Lady Lex might have been sunk, but there is no need for Wasp to deliver aircraft to Malta - they are delivered through Greece and Cyrenaica.

The first thing is that I wait to see is whether Saratoga gets a torpedo hit at January 11th 1942. Due to butterflies it seems quite possible that a random hit in the middle of the vast ocean by a IJN picket-line submarine might not take place. What are the chances for such random hit?

Next we need to see whether the Doolittle Raid takes place or no. If it does, when does it take place? We know that Nimitz sent TF16 to SWPA, five days after they returned from the raid. If the raid takes place 8-9 days sooner, then Enterprise and Hornet will be able to participate in Coral Sea.

At the worst possible scenario (random hit on Saratoga or another CV) and the Doolitle Raid taking place at the same date, we will have a Coral Sea with Yorktown and Wasp.

If there is no random hit, we have a Coral Sea with 3 CVs instead of the OTL 2.

If the Doolittle Raid is either cancelled or sceduled a few days earlier, we have 5 CVs taking part in Coral Sea...

Over twenty bombers would be claimed by the FAA fighters and the two battleships anti-aircraft gunners, with the British ships returning to Singapore with nary a scratch.

Good news for the RN. I checked again the timeline and it seems that neither Illustrious nor Formitable have been damaged. With airbases in Cyrenaica and Greece, Cunningham can afford to temporarily lose his armoured carriers for a few months since there is a grave naval danger in the Indo-Pacific.

Moreover, I think the British will remove their carriers from Singapore. They were there to deter the Japanese and now they find Singapore is within range of japanese land-based bombers. I wonder though if they will try use them one more time in defence of Java or if they will wait in Ceylon for more ships to arrive to constitute a proper fleet.

In any case, armoured carriers and Ark Royal can constitute a pretty decent Eastern Fleet in time for the Indian Ocean Raid.

These didn't make the reduction of the allied army in Syria fighting the Turks almost by half any less problematic...
There is a quick temporary fix for it: keep a defensive posture in Iraq and more any additional forces to Syria. Luckily by this point the 5 brigades of South Africans must be available for use in Tripolitania.

A single RAF B-24 landed in the airport in the middle of night. The three passengers, immediately entered a car to be driven away somewhere, while the aircraft again took off. Juan Negrin, Segismundo Casado and Cipriano Mera were back in Spain...
Interesting .... Very very interesting...
 
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Has greece enforced conscription in the Dodecanese?
In OTL the volunteer Dodecanese regiment already had something in the order of a couple thousand men, I have the exact number stashed somewhere, out of a total population around 120,000. At a guess not, but there should be a continuous flow of volunteers, even more so for local defence units.
With the sinking of force Z by air power averted, I wonder if this will mean more focus on battleships from the Allies because the opponents of carriers can still play the "Pearl Harbor/Taranto only worked because you caught them in port with your pants down" card.
You might see less underestimation of battleships TTL, well into the 1950s battleships were still very effective, if very costly, units.
I'm surprised the Lexington got sunk but I guess you can't have everything.
In OTL for the past several months there was not a single weekend that at least one or more carrier wasn't at Pearl. Aside from December 7th. Minor or not so minor butterflies have been accumulating for the past 2 decades at this point. They should not affect the broad events, why Japanese policy would be affected by what happened to the Greco-Turkish war, or even by a somewhat altered fighting in the Mediterranean? But the exact location of individual ships?

So, the big difference with OTL Pearl Harbour raid is that the Japanese have sunk an aircraft carrier besides the battleships (and as result they sufferd slightly more casualties). The loss of Lexington will be offset (partially) however by the presence of Ark Royal in the Pacific plus the survival of the 2 British battleships. I hope that leads the Amricans being lesscocky against the British...
Also, Ireland is not going to participate very actively in the war (at least at first) but the logistics for the Allied anti-submarine campaign will be much simpler with the usage of Irish ports and airports. I would like to see however an Irish brigade participate in the liberation of France!
Collins will certainly want to get lend lease and would hardly mind a stronger Irish army... but this needs to see some use.
Finally, ΗΝ Salamis the only active Allied battleship in the Med?
Two RN battleships are out, Warspite on the way but should take weeks. Then you have a single RN battleship, Malaya IMS, in Gibraltar.
That is a nice bargaining chip for Dragoumis (but also an enormous pressure on the HN). How many Italian battleships are active at this time ITTL?
Three at the moment, Littorio, Cesare and Duilio with Roma about to enter service in early 1942.

While I can't remember exact numbers off the top of my head, I do remember that the Taranto raid was even more successful in this timeline, so the Italian navy is in shape to set sail.

If I can remember, every battleship took some damage, but one of them was basically fully functional, but the other 2 would take months to fix up. Salamis can't take out that battleship by itself however, so it's not like it can properly contest the med without ground based air support.
Salamis is individually superior to the two older Italian ships and inferior in turn to Littorio.

I wonder what impact a much stronger Britain in the East will have. If they can prevent the fall of Singapore, then it basically cuts off the Japanese from Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, etc. It would also do wonders for British morale, as the combined loss of Singapore and Hong Kong was an enormous hit both to domestic confidence, and colonial prestige, with many groups which were previously loyal-ish reconsidering when it was apparent that the UK was so weak. ITTL the UK is fighting actively all over, North Africa, greece, the Middle East, and Asia.
Singapore holding out would potentially have massive effects. How likely that is... is a different question though the trio of surviving RN capital ships at Singapore is an additional headache to the Japanese for certain.
Historiographically, I imagine that greater emphasis would be placed on the UK's role compared to OTL, where they are often the forgotten third partner of the big three. France will also benefit, from the fighting French army serving so heroically after the fall. I don't know if these morale/prestige/legacy benefits will have any material good in the immediate postwar however.
Greeks and French are likely the big beneficiaries compared to OTL in public perception. British somewhat. Poles and Yugoslavs again somewhat, even larger free Polish army and the Yugoslavs can play "gallant little Serbia, the sequel" here. On the reverse, Turkey.. ok the less said he better. As for the Italians TTL it's... more difficult to radically underestimate them.

I did read an incredibly detailed thread about the difference of the war ending in 1944 due to a normandy equivalent in 43, and how it would have major impacts on Britain's war debt, and ability to handle reconstruction.
I'd question the feasibility of doing Normandy in 1943...
Very good timing by Collins. Soon, the Allies will invest in Ireland in order to upgrade its infrastructure. I think just for political reasons, an Irish formation will have to get trained for deployment in NWE.
By all accounts the man was naturally good. Or perhaps I have a soft spot for revolutionaries in the mold of Garibaldi...

I would argue that compared to OTL, the Americans will have at least the same number of CVs come spring 1942. Lady Lex might have been sunk, but there is no need for Wasp to deliver aircraft to Malta - they are delivered through Greece and Cyrenaica.
And Glorious till it so inconveniently sunk...

The first thing is that I wait to see is whether Saratoga gets a torpedo hit at January 11th 1942. Due to butterflies it seems quite possible that a random hit in the middle of the vast ocean by a IJN picket-line submarine might not take place. What are the chances for such random hit?
Random events are always going to happen. The SAME random events with OTL?

Next we need to see whether the Doolittle Raid takes place or no. If it does, when does it take place? We know that Nimitz sent TF16 to SWPA, five days after they returned from the raid. If the raid takes place 8-9 days sooner, then Enterprise and Hornet will be able to participate in Coral Sea.

At the worst possible scenario (random hit on Saratoga or another CV) and the Doolitle Raid taking place at the same date, we will have a Coral Sea with Yorktown and Wasp.

If there is no random hit, we have a Coral Sea with 3 CVs instead of the OTL 2.

If the Doolittle Raid is either cancelled or sceduled a few days earlier, we have 5 CVs taking part in Coral Sea...
Not entirely certain why the raid should happen earlier? Although by the same token it's not certain it would happen either...

Good news for the RN. I checked again the timeline and it seems that neither Illustrious nor Formitable have been damaged. With airbases in Cyrenaica and Greece, Cunningham can afford to temporarily lose his armoured carriers for a few months since there is a grave naval danger in the Indo-Pacific.
Perhaps then perhaps not. His battleships just got knocked out...

Moreover, I think the British will remove their carriers from Singapore. They were there to deter the Japanese and now they find Singapore is within range of japanese land-based bombers. I wonder though if they will try use them one more time in defence of Java or if they will wait in Ceylon for more ships to arrive to constitute a proper fleet.

In any case, armoured carriers and Ark Royal can constitute a pretty decent Eastern Fleet in time for the Indian Ocean Raid.
It stands to reason the RN would try to interfere with Japanese operations... it also stands to reason they won't be leaving precious capital ships to get sunk for no reason...

There is a quick temporary fix for it: keep a defensive posture in Iraq and more any additional forces to Syria. Luckily by this point the 5 brigades of South Africans must be available for use in Tripolitania.
The South Africans at the moment are in the Western Desert. Where O'Connor has resumed the offensive...
 
Let's hope Singapore gets plenty of High Explosive (HE) shells for its coast artillery batteries ITTL.

In OTL, the lack of HE shells limited the batteries effectiveness - armor piercing (AP) shells aren't that effective against "soft" targets.
 
Singapore holding out would potentially have massive effects. How likely that is... is a different question
Given the massive Japanese logistical issues it does not take a lot, not sinking Force Z could on its own, by making the IJN more cautious, be enough to delay things so Singapore is not taken on the bounce. It seems a common meme in TL's that the Japanese in the early years are super soldiers and therefore people ignore just how lucky they were ( overcomplex operations that depended on previous ones finishing on time with no unexpected losses etc )
 
Would we see a Carpathian gap ittl for the USSR? Like considering Greece being a regional power ittl Russia and Greece have to think about how they deal with it.
 
Part 89
Norfolk Virginia, December 16th, 1941

USS Yorktown and USS Wasp were ordered into the Pacific ocean.

Sirte, Libya, December 16th, 1941

Threatened to be outflanked by the British 4th Armoured brigade, Rommel ordered a general retreat towards Tripoli. In the three weeks since taking command general O'Connor had gotten the British 8th army's act together and German and Italian casualties had kept mounting. Over 28,000 men and 190 tanks had been lost already. British tank losses were over twice as many, but unlike the Afrika Korps they were far better able to absorb them, while they had lost far fewer men, less than 10,000 so far.

Sevastopol, December 17th, 1941

Further to the north, the Germans had been stopped cold in front of Moscow with Soviet troops counterattacking against them. But here in the south the Germans continued to have the upper hand and kept the pressure on Sevastopol. The city defenders had so far beaten back two assaults. Now a third was launched and unlike the previous ones start making headway against the defences. But after a week of fighting a Soviet landing in the Kerch peninsula and reinforcements to the garrison would stabilize the situation. Sevastopol would hold for the time being...

Scapa Flow, December 20th, 1941

The battleship Lorraine, escorted by 4 destroyers sailed away for Gibraltar to join the RN's Force H, since HMS Malaya its single battleship currently was taking the risky route across the Mediterranean to reach Alexandria, as soon as Lorraine reached Gibraltar. The Allied navies still had 23 battleships operational. But with the Axis having 16 battleships of their own their margin of superiority had been at its thinnest since the start of the war.

Smyrna, December 22nd, 1941

The Greek Archipelago division landed in the city and was immediately rushed to the frontline. The transports that had brought it would be filled with civilians to make the trip back to Piraeus the next night. The reinforcements were sorely needed, Magnesia had fallen the previous day and Axis forces were pushing hard against Mount Sipylus, the defenders had taken more than 13,000 casualties in two weeks of fighting, almost as many as the previous two assaults put together.

Colombo, Ceylon, December 23rd, 1941

HMS Formidable and HMS Indomitable, joined the Eastern fleet. Four old Revenge class battleships were already waiting in Colombo, while HMS Warspite was on the way. Despite Churchill's misgivings, admiral James Somerville would take over command of the fleet.

Philippines, December 24th, 1941

The previous day general MacArthur had declared Manilla an open city. Now his forces pulled into the Bataan peninsula. It was just one more failure in what appeared to be an endless string of defeats against the Japanese so far. Wake island had also fallen on the 23rd while the Japanese had landed on Sarawak on the same day. In Malaya the British were in headlong retreat. The Royal Navy's Force Z had sailed out from Singapore in an attempt to disrupt Japanese communications. It remained to be seen whether they would manage anything...

Alexandria, December 25th, 1941

Salamis, Lemnos, HMS Illustrious and their escorts took to the sea towards Malta. HMS Malaya, a number of fast transports and their destroyer escorts were on their way from the other side of the Mediterranean. If all went well, the transports would drop off to Malta, while Malaya would join the squadron coming out from the east...

Libya, December 25th, 1941

Advance elements of the British 8th army entered Misrata. By now the British had advanced nearly 560 km since the start of the offensive and were facing serious supply issues. But they were only 210 km away from Tripoli and if it fell, the Axis position in North Africa was unsustainable. Besides the Axis had its own problems. Between the British cruisers operating out of Malta and allied submarines Libya was being starved of supplies. Two weeks ago an Italian convoy bound for Tripoli had lost 4 out of its 8 ships the rest turning back. A new convoy had just sailed out this time with all three active Italian battleships escorting it.

Mudros, Lemnos, December 25th, 1941

Rauf Orbay had taken personal command of his fleet, as he brought it back from the Black sea to the Aegean. Marshal Fevzi Cakmak had been anything but happy with the navy, for failing to interfere with the Greeks transferring reinforcements to Smyrna and if Turkish politics since 1919 had proven anything, it was that it was ill advised to be on the wrong side of the marshal's ire. Despite the reinforcements, the army was still pushing forward but it was becoming increasingly hard, further reinforcements had to be stopped at all costs. At least if German intelligence was to be believed, the Greek battleship and one of the heavy cruisers was unavailable. And German and Italian reports from Egypt had grown very accurate in the past two months. Apparently there was a mole of some short in Cairo. This presented opportunities...
 
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Seeing the ittl WWII diverge that much than otl is very interesting, since Greece being present instead of being knocked out quickly ittl makes the axis having to think about Greece. This also means that the WAllies have to think about this tho, so they must be sweating when they see moves like this

May Thermopylae and Symrna be in allied hands.
 
Oh no he is going to sink the ships full of civilians
Looks like it's gonna be a repeat of the 1822 events. Back then the Turks massacred the Greek population of Chios and the Greeks sank their flagship at Cesme.
I bet the united allied fleet will return late to save the civilians, but timely enough for annihilating the Turkish navy.
 
Smyrna, December 22nd, 1941

The Greek Archipelago division landed in the city and was immediately rushed to the frontline. The transports that had brought it would be filled with civilians to make the trip back to Piraeus the next night.
Oh no he is going to sink the ships full of civilians

Mudros, Lemnos, December 25th, 1941

Rauf Orbay had taken personal command of his fleet, as he brought it back from the Black sea to the Aegean.

If I understood well, the transports carrying the civilians left Smyrna on the 23rd. The distance from Smyrna to Piraeus (IF they are going to Piraeus, which is not necessary) is 373 miles. With a speed of 10 knots the journey would last 1 1/2day. The Turkish fleet is not near Smyrna but in Northern Aegean. So, it would be highly not probable for the Turks to intercept THIS particular convoy. http://ports.com/sea-route/port-of-izmir,turkey/port-of-piraeus,greece/
 
The convoy will leave smyrna on the 23rd at night for Piraeus so there is a chance that the convoy gets caught...
On the morning of the 25th the convoy will be if not in Piraeus, then very close to it. There is no chance the Turkish fleet in Lemnos would intercept a convoy being near Piraeus on the 25th. If there has been a delay in the departure of the convoy or if the Turkish fleet was near Lemnos on the 24th it would be possible.
 
On the morning of the 25th the convoy will be if not in Piraeus, then very close to it. There is no chance the Turkish fleet in Lemnos would intercept a convoy being near Piraeus on the 25th. If there has been a delay in the departure of the convoy or if the Turkish fleet was near Lemnos on the 24th it would be possible.
Only lascaris would know.. but maybe an attack from the air is not out of the picture
 
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