Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
formion
Banned
The geopolitics of greco-soviet relations in a greek victory senario would be much different than OTL.
From one side, a more powerful Greece that controls partially the Straits is far more important to the Soviet Union. Up to a point, Greece will have to be placated as in contrast to OTL Kemalist Turkey, it doesn't share a land border with the USSR, so it is more impervious to soviet pressure.
On the other side, Greece will be seen as even more of a british puppet. This will be very alarming for the Soviet leadership, especially when Stalin comes into power.
Therefore, I think that the Greeks of Russia will be seen as potential agents/ fifth column of a potentially hostile power. However, since the USSR will depend of greek goodwill to enjoy trade through the Straits, they cannot displace or liquidate the greek population.
I think that leaves the option of expelling the Greeks to Greece. At best, the russianized Greeks may be exempted, while those who maintain greek customs and language are gonners. There is a quote that half the russian Greeks were russianized (Petsalis, 1972) , so that leaves around 300k people for expulsion.
Frankly, Russian Greeks would be valuable human capital. The ones from around Mariopol were tobacco growers and would make excellent settlers for the tobacco growing regions of northern Greece. A significant part of the rest had experience with trade and a sizeable minority were wine growers.
Part 10 The battle of Sakarya
Biga area, May 15th, 1921
No-one could accuse Ahmet Anzavur of not being a stubborn man. The old Circassian had led three revolts in the name of the sultan against the nationalists, ironically the second one had been suppressed by Cerkez Ethem who had himself defected to the Greeks afterwards. Now he was at it for the fourth attempt. It was not to be as Nationalist guerillas captured and executed him. The killing would hardly help with the local Circassians attitude who had been already alienated by the nationalists.
Italy, May 15th, 1921
Eighteen months had passed from the previous election. With Italy in wake of its "biennio rosso", two years of industrial actions, strikes, occupations of factories by their workers and the rise of both the left and the right new elections had to be called ahead of time. They had been bloody and violent to say the least with over 200 deaths most from attacks by fascist squadristi. But unknown to every they were also the last free elections in Italy for a generation. The socialist party would come first, with 24,7% of the vote and 123 seats in the parliament 33 less than the last election. Prime minister Giovanni Giolitti's Blocchi Nazionali an unholy coalition between his Liberal party, the Social Democratic party, the Italian Nationalist Association and Mussolini's fascists had come third with 19.1% and 105 seats. A third of them belonged to the fascists. Giolitti would remain in power till early July before his government being replaced by one under Ivanoe Bonomi. With Bonomi coming to power, count Carlo Sforza, would be also gone from the Italian foreign ministry.
Sakarya river, May 11th, 1921 (old calendar)/ May 24th, 1921 (new calendar)
Greek combat engineers put pontoon bridges over the river under the fire of Turkish infantry and artillery, while their own artillery thundered over their heads trying to suppress the Turkish defenders. Despite the heavy casualties by nightfall the Greek army had established bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the river. At dawn of the 12th Greek infantry would attack out of them. The B and Smyrna Army corps with seven infantry divisions and the Greeks single cavalry division wερε attacking frontally towards Polatli, supplied by the railroad and the roads that run parallel to it. A corps, with three infantry divisions were attacking to the north of the main effort from Mihaliccic toward the Ankara tributary in hopes of turning the Turkish right flank as the Greek main effort pinned them down at Polatli. Paraskeuopoulos and Pangalos couldn't be accused of trying any elaborate plan of operations but with more than twice Kemal's numbers they didn't need one either. Thoughts of trying to flank the Turkish positions from the south and the mostly barren territory there had been dismissed out of hand as it would had added well over 100 km to the Greeks lines of communications over extremely inhospitable terrain and away from the railroad while the Turks were just as likely to be able to reposition themselves in time.
Polatli, May 14th, 1921 (old calendar)/ May 27th, 1921 (new calendar)
The Greeks took the town a little before nightfall after four days of fighting. The Turkish army was hardly broken but it was bleeding badly, in had suffered already nearly twelve thousand casualties and their own casualties did not seem to stop the Greeks. Kemal had to decide between saving the army and holding Ankara. It was not an easy decision but in the end it could be only one. The order to evacuate Ankara from the Grand National Assembly and all supplies that could be taken away was given. The army would fight on to give time for the evacuation then start pulling back itself.
Ankara, May 21st, 1921 (old calendar)/ June 3rd, 1921 (new calendar)
Ankara fell. By now the Grant National Assembly was well on its way to Sivas and the Turkish army in full retreat with the Greeks closely behind it. The Greek advance would halt itself four days later as it reached the Halys river, the Turkish Kizilirmak, a bit over 50 km to the east of the city. The Turkish army had retained its cohesion, but it had lost over a third of his strength, nearly 25,000 men. And with Ankara it had also lost control of the railroad and the supply route to Inebolu, supplies now had to come from Samsun and Sivas over a single paved road on carts, mules and camels. Morale was starting to plummet. Some of the soldiers had been in action since 1911. During a decade of war they had suffered terrible casualties and they were still fighting with no end in sight. It could not continue indefinitely. At some point peace had to return. But the Greeks had also lost 11,000 men and any thought of pursuing the Turkisj army beyond the Halys was out of the question, their supply situation was precarious enough even reaching the Halys. Now it remained to be seen whether their victories so far were enough....
Naples, Italy, June 13th, 1921
The troopships sailed out of Naples with the 75th and 76th Infantry regiments of the Napoli brigade aboard. In a few days they would be joining the 14,600 men Italy already had deployed in south-western Anatolia. Ostensibly this was due to a number of negligible incidents between the Turks and Italians. There had been some incidents around Soke, a dispute earlier in May over a Greek navy DH.9 bomber that had crashed in the Italian zone and some shots fired at an Italian boat in Gulluk. In practice if the nationalists were being defeated, Italy had no reason not to take advantage, its colonial ambitions were very much alive after all. Arms shipments would continue for the time being but Italy wanted to keep all its options open...
No-one could accuse Ahmet Anzavur of not being a stubborn man. The old Circassian had led three revolts in the name of the sultan against the nationalists, ironically the second one had been suppressed by Cerkez Ethem who had himself defected to the Greeks afterwards. Now he was at it for the fourth attempt. It was not to be as Nationalist guerillas captured and executed him. The killing would hardly help with the local Circassians attitude who had been already alienated by the nationalists.
Italy, May 15th, 1921
Eighteen months had passed from the previous election. With Italy in wake of its "biennio rosso", two years of industrial actions, strikes, occupations of factories by their workers and the rise of both the left and the right new elections had to be called ahead of time. They had been bloody and violent to say the least with over 200 deaths most from attacks by fascist squadristi. But unknown to every they were also the last free elections in Italy for a generation. The socialist party would come first, with 24,7% of the vote and 123 seats in the parliament 33 less than the last election. Prime minister Giovanni Giolitti's Blocchi Nazionali an unholy coalition between his Liberal party, the Social Democratic party, the Italian Nationalist Association and Mussolini's fascists had come third with 19.1% and 105 seats. A third of them belonged to the fascists. Giolitti would remain in power till early July before his government being replaced by one under Ivanoe Bonomi. With Bonomi coming to power, count Carlo Sforza, would be also gone from the Italian foreign ministry.
Sakarya river, May 11th, 1921 (old calendar)/ May 24th, 1921 (new calendar)
Greek combat engineers put pontoon bridges over the river under the fire of Turkish infantry and artillery, while their own artillery thundered over their heads trying to suppress the Turkish defenders. Despite the heavy casualties by nightfall the Greek army had established bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the river. At dawn of the 12th Greek infantry would attack out of them. The B and Smyrna Army corps with seven infantry divisions and the Greeks single cavalry division wερε attacking frontally towards Polatli, supplied by the railroad and the roads that run parallel to it. A corps, with three infantry divisions were attacking to the north of the main effort from Mihaliccic toward the Ankara tributary in hopes of turning the Turkish right flank as the Greek main effort pinned them down at Polatli. Paraskeuopoulos and Pangalos couldn't be accused of trying any elaborate plan of operations but with more than twice Kemal's numbers they didn't need one either. Thoughts of trying to flank the Turkish positions from the south and the mostly barren territory there had been dismissed out of hand as it would had added well over 100 km to the Greeks lines of communications over extremely inhospitable terrain and away from the railroad while the Turks were just as likely to be able to reposition themselves in time.
Polatli, May 14th, 1921 (old calendar)/ May 27th, 1921 (new calendar)
The Greeks took the town a little before nightfall after four days of fighting. The Turkish army was hardly broken but it was bleeding badly, in had suffered already nearly twelve thousand casualties and their own casualties did not seem to stop the Greeks. Kemal had to decide between saving the army and holding Ankara. It was not an easy decision but in the end it could be only one. The order to evacuate Ankara from the Grand National Assembly and all supplies that could be taken away was given. The army would fight on to give time for the evacuation then start pulling back itself.
Ankara, May 21st, 1921 (old calendar)/ June 3rd, 1921 (new calendar)
Ankara fell. By now the Grant National Assembly was well on its way to Sivas and the Turkish army in full retreat with the Greeks closely behind it. The Greek advance would halt itself four days later as it reached the Halys river, the Turkish Kizilirmak, a bit over 50 km to the east of the city. The Turkish army had retained its cohesion, but it had lost over a third of his strength, nearly 25,000 men. And with Ankara it had also lost control of the railroad and the supply route to Inebolu, supplies now had to come from Samsun and Sivas over a single paved road on carts, mules and camels. Morale was starting to plummet. Some of the soldiers had been in action since 1911. During a decade of war they had suffered terrible casualties and they were still fighting with no end in sight. It could not continue indefinitely. At some point peace had to return. But the Greeks had also lost 11,000 men and any thought of pursuing the Turkisj army beyond the Halys was out of the question, their supply situation was precarious enough even reaching the Halys. Now it remained to be seen whether their victories so far were enough....
Naples, Italy, June 13th, 1921
The troopships sailed out of Naples with the 75th and 76th Infantry regiments of the Napoli brigade aboard. In a few days they would be joining the 14,600 men Italy already had deployed in south-western Anatolia. Ostensibly this was due to a number of negligible incidents between the Turks and Italians. There had been some incidents around Soke, a dispute earlier in May over a Greek navy DH.9 bomber that had crashed in the Italian zone and some shots fired at an Italian boat in Gulluk. In practice if the nationalists were being defeated, Italy had no reason not to take advantage, its colonial ambitions were very much alive after all. Arms shipments would continue for the time being but Italy wanted to keep all its options open...
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formion
Banned
Great update!
I see that Pangalos, being the good organizer he was, took notice of the logistics regarding the push to Ankara. The idiots in OTL used the southern approach, far away from the railroad. Incompetent nincompoops.
So, in total the Kemalists have lost around 60,000 men in a couple of months. Their field army is gutted and I doubt it can be rebuilt in significant numbers. In addition to the mentioned war weariness of a decade of war, I would like to add the manpower base and material.
Regarding manpower, the population of Turkey was slightly over 13 million (500k of those were refugees from Greece that hadn't suffer any casualties during the Great and Greco-Turkish Wars). In this population there were reported 1,062,916 widows. The realy number of widows should have been higher as it was customary in Anatolia for widows to remarry. I do believe thst the population base the Kemalists currently control holds no more than 4,5 million people at best, with the adult male population devastated. Moreover, this population includes perhaps 0,75-1 million Kurds that won't tolerate conscription in a regular army.
Material will be even more difficult to replace than soldiers. Lenin gets cold feet and the Italians are opportunistic "allies" at best. Their main concern was control of Marmaris an excellent port that was desired by the admirals. After all, warships drawing more than 3 meters could no enter Rhodes' harbor.
I see that Pangalos, being the good organizer he was, took notice of the logistics regarding the push to Ankara. The idiots in OTL used the southern approach, far away from the railroad. Incompetent nincompoops.
So, in total the Kemalists have lost around 60,000 men in a couple of months. Their field army is gutted and I doubt it can be rebuilt in significant numbers. In addition to the mentioned war weariness of a decade of war, I would like to add the manpower base and material.
Regarding manpower, the population of Turkey was slightly over 13 million (500k of those were refugees from Greece that hadn't suffer any casualties during the Great and Greco-Turkish Wars). In this population there were reported 1,062,916 widows. The realy number of widows should have been higher as it was customary in Anatolia for widows to remarry. I do believe thst the population base the Kemalists currently control holds no more than 4,5 million people at best, with the adult male population devastated. Moreover, this population includes perhaps 0,75-1 million Kurds that won't tolerate conscription in a regular army.
Material will be even more difficult to replace than soldiers. Lenin gets cold feet and the Italians are opportunistic "allies" at best. Their main concern was control of Marmaris an excellent port that was desired by the admirals. After all, warships drawing more than 3 meters could no enter Rhodes' harbor.
Mussolini and His Generals
This is the first authoritative study of the Italian armed forces and the relationship between the military and foreign policies of Fascist Italy from Mussolini's rise to power in 1922 to the catastrophic defeat of 1940. Using extensive new research, John Gooch explores the nature and...
books.google.com
Pangalos had his issues but as an officer he had been demonstratively above average. But the irony of the thing is that military wise the TTL Greeks have remained competent at the operational/strategic level but not extraordinarily so. They are merely solid, what you'd expect from a veteran army or any competent officer that can read a map. Ok yes that's also my way of saying the post-November leadership was with few exceptions idiots. But then I'm not saying something new. Dousmanis a royalist himself was way more scathing of Papoulas and Gounaris was calling him an idiot. Now why Gounaris had decided it was a good idea to select an idiot to head the army... granted if stupidity was a shooting offence...
So, in total the Kemalists have lost around 60,000 men in a couple of months. Their field army is gutted and I doubt it can be rebuilt in significant numbers. In addition to the mentioned war weariness of a decade of war, I would like to add the manpower base and material.
Regarding manpower, the population of Turkey was slightly over 13 million (500k of those were refugees from Greece that hadn't suffer any casualties during the Great and Greco-Turkish Wars). In this population there were reported 1,062,916 widows. The realy number of widows should have been higher as it was customary in Anatolia for widows to remarry. I do believe thst the population base the Kemalists currently control holds no more than 4,5 million people at best, with the adult male population devastated. Moreover, this population includes perhaps 0,75-1 million Kurds that won't tolerate conscription in a regular army.
Material will be even more difficult to replace than soldiers. Lenin gets cold feet and the Italians are opportunistic "allies" at best. Their main concern was control of Marmaris an excellent port that was desired by the admirals. After all, warships drawing more than 3 meters could no enter Rhodes' harbor.
Mussolini and His Generals
This is the first authoritative study of the Italian armed forces and the relationship between the military and foreign policies of Fascist Italy from Mussolini's rise to power in 1922 to the catastrophic defeat of 1940. Using extensive new research, John Gooch explores the nature and...books.google.com
At a rough estimation the territory the grand national assembly controls is closer to 8 million people, probably a little more. That said to quote Erickson Ottoman casualties in WW1 were as follows
Dead and missing: 771,844
POWs: 145,104
Wounded, permanently lost: 303,150
Deserters: 500,000
That said at the time of the 1918 armistice the Ottoman armed forces were still supposed to have 1,095,000 men under arms. Now a portion of these were Arabs, another portion Christians forcibly conscripted but still the Turkish nationalists are likely more constrained over arming men and keeping them from deserting than finding them.
formion
Banned
It seems I grossly miscalculated! However, I don't think that it would be close or over 8 million.
I am not sure in what degree we can trust ottoman statistics in politically sensitive regions, such as the Six Vilayets. The Erzurum, Bitlis and Van vilayets were also the regions where a long and brutal campaign was fought.
In any case I terribly miscalculated !
I expect a collapse of the Turkish war effort by the end of 1921 due to lack of supplies and desertions (and possibly attacks by other parties...). I wonder what will happen with the Pontic Greeks.
Those small edits
Now on the good part!!It seems the Greeks weren't really bothered by the Turkish defense, when having a 2:1 ratio in number and 4:1 in artillery it's not really that weird. But what now? They can progress no further and if Kemal still holds on indefinitely ,although not a real threat due to lack of supplies, the Greeks need to pays for their army and not put themselves deeper in debt than they already are. To bad the Armenians and Pontic Greeks have been defeated and can't benefit from this collapse.
On the International front now. if Italy gets land in Asia Minor maybe the current gov can stay put and stop the road to Rome by Mussolini and maybe agree on border issues with Greece. On the other hand maybe they get to ambitious and want to bully Greece to give up some lands but that is up to debate really. Also France has an armistice with Turkey but for how long really?With this turn of events they can claim back Cilicia without any serious resistance and that goes to the Soviets as well they can renegotiate their borders with Turkey.
In any case things are getting more dire for the nationalists and more secure for the Greeks, it would need a natural disaster or a meteor to reverse the last battle in favor of the nationalists now. I wonder how the final borders will look like and the establishment of a new status quo. Great work!!!
formion
Banned
Yeah, as Soviet policy was maintaining the old tsarist borders, I don't see them giving back Kars and Ardahan in TTL.
In contrast, French policy in Cilicia was not forceful and by that point they have even dissolve the Armenian Legion. The civilian armenian population are refugees in and around Adana and they are not even given guns to protect themselves. Thus, Cilicia is as goodmas lost. However, Alexandretta may be incorporated for good in the mandate.
@Lascaris, do you have any notion on turkish material losses? Did Kemal managed to extract most of his artillery or not ?
Αt a minimum you have 750,000 military deaths during the war. How many civilian casualties you have... it is unclear beyond saying they were heavy. McCarthy's figures are grossly inflated of course, the man took the Ottoman 1914 census from Karpat, claimed it was a gross undercount of the Muslim population (evidence is it was to greater or smaller degree exaggerated actually just as the Greeks and Armenians were doing in their own publications) and from there when on to produce civilian losses. Frex Karpat gives a Muslim population for the Aydin vilayet in the 1914 census of ~1,249,000, McCarthy adds about ~146,000 Muslim refugees from the Balkans (table 10 of his Death and Exile book) to reach an end population of ~1,888,000 in table 29 of the same book, 35% higher than the sum of Karpat's census data and his own refugee numbers. He may be counting Menteshe as part of Aydin though which would add 189,000 more people in which case he's off by 19.2% instead.
At a very rough calculation of my own starting from Karpat's ~12.865 million in 1914, inflated or not, you have at a minimum ~510,000 excess civilian deaths if you assume no population growth during the war years to about 1,389 million if you assume population was still growing during the war at the ~0.79% it did in 1906-14 (again calculated from Karpat). Which means at a minimum 1.26 million deaths from all causes...
It is certainly becoming increasingly difficult to maintain it. Supposedly after OTL Sakarya the nationalists expected the army had one more major battle in it. Here they certainly do not have the luxury to wait for a year preparing for it. The Pontic Greeks... even with a Greek victory I'm not very optimistic of their chances. Militarily should someone break through the multiple passes in the mountains you have no fallback position. And they themselves are how many? Fewer than half a million by Venzelos statistics in the Paris peace conference. How will a population of half a million generate a sufficient army to hold out long term?
At the moment there is some short of equilibrium militarily if you will. The Greeks are near victory on one hand, Turkey east of Ankara is mostly invulnerable on the other. So in any peace treaty, if something does not change drastically, there are terms that the Greeks and by extension the entente can enforce frex holding onto Smyrna but if something is not critical for Greece and directly held by them or the entente, good luck on enforcing it on the Turks...
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Amazing timeline Lascaris, I will follow this with great interest.
I am curious as to how the post war landscape will look in Anatolia. Greece will almost certainly gain everything ceded to it under the Treaty of Sevres, but I wonder what else they might get. Also it looks like Italy might be returning to Antalya, while the Soviets might renege on their deal with Turkey taking back Kars and Ardahan. Suffice to say, it looks like Anatolia will look quite different after the Greco-Turkish War in this timeline.
I am curious as to how the post war landscape will look in Anatolia. Greece will almost certainly gain everything ceded to it under the Treaty of Sevres, but I wonder what else they might get. Also it looks like Italy might be returning to Antalya, while the Soviets might renege on their deal with Turkey taking back Kars and Ardahan. Suffice to say, it looks like Anatolia will look quite different after the Greco-Turkish War in this timeline.
formion
Banned
Its good to see you here Earl!
So... let's speculate!
The most economically important greek gain would have been the Meander valley, as it is very fertile and produces a lot of exporting cash crops (figs, tobacco, cotton) while it has a railroad and paved roads. On the plus side, the greek army controls the north bank of the river although not Kusadasi, a very important port. Moreover, the north bank of the river is the most fertile part of the valley (irrigated by a multitude of small streams) with all important towns located in it.
The other important region is control of the Smyrna-Pandirma/Panormos railway. Good infrastructure and of paramount strategic value as it shields the Dardanelles.
On the other hand, I don't see the Nationalists accepting an italian Antalya. Turkey would need a Mediterranean port after the war, as any port in the Marmara and Black Seas can easily be blockated by Greece. That leaves Antalya as the best solution. On the other hand, I think they would write off the southern bank of the Meander and the sanjak of Menteshe across the Dodecanese: a poor mountainous region of little importance. The Italians gain the great Marmaris harbor and a colony with the same climate as Italy. I can easily see the Italians settling the best regions of the colony (south bank of Meander, Miletus and the lowlands) utilizing the olive oil potential of the region.
EDIT: I forgot the strategically important chrome deposits of Fethiye and Marmaris. In 1954, long after the Elazig and dozens of other mines were developed, Mugla province produced 119,7 thousand tons chrome out of a 561 thousand tons national production. Considering that the deposits were known pre-war and that Italy had no chrome at all, I believe the Italians would fiercely cling on the region.
At the same time, Turkey loses possibly half its interwar chrome production, as the eastern Anatolia mines were slow to develop (infrastructure such as railroads had to be built first).
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For sure even if Kemal pulls out of his hat a last minute victory a complete collapse of the Greek army as in August 1922 is not likely. Even in OTL it was for every practical purpose due to a command failure on the part of generals Trikoupis and Hadjianestis. Trikoupis had ben solid as a division commander but over his head at anything bigger, Hadjianestis had been replaced as a divisional commander in 1916 to have an army level command thrown on his head... and poor man was too duty bound to think he could refuse as Metaxas did (one more reason I think very low of Metaxas). So at the very least Greece will be keeping East Thrace come hell or high water.
Assuming a Greek/Entente victory though there are two things to consider, that I'm not entirely certain upon.
1. Sevres includes that interesting time bomb in article 36 of the treaty. What does article 36 say? To quote
"Subject to the provisions of the present Treaty, the High Contracting Parties agree that the rights and title of the Turkish Government over Constantinople shall not be affected, and that the said Government and His Majesty the Sultan shall be entitled to reside there and to maintain there the capital of the Turkish State.
Nevertheless, in the event of Turkey failing to observe faithfully the provisions of the present Treaty, or of any treaties or conventions supplementary thereto, particularly as regards the protection of the rights of racial, religious or linguistic minorities, the Allied Powers expressly reserve the right to modify the above provisions, and Turkey hereby agrees to accept any dispositions which may be taken in this connection."
Turkey has failed to observe the treaty of Sevres. Hell it has fought on with the express purpose of overturning the treaty, caused thousands of casualties not just on the Greeks but the French as well and while at it massacred some tens of thousands more Armenian and Greek civilians. Article 36 was not there by accident. It was put there by Venizelos to get a claim on Constantinople after as he expected Turkey fought on. The question is what form actual application of it does take. Could see a League city of Constantinople, Danzig style. Could just as easily the Greek army occupying the European side and Constantinople split between Greece on the European side and Turkey on the Asiatic side. But whatever happens to Constantinople will obviously affect the peace settlement in Asia Minor as well. Probably will be central to the peace conference when it comes.
2. There are two conflicting purposes here between Greece getting a defensible border in Asia Minor and minimizing the number of Muslims within its territory (and if there is a population exchange as seems likely minimizing the number of people involved as much as possible.) The ideal border on purely military grounds for example runs down from Nikaia/Iznik to the Olympus/Uludag mountains to the Simav mountains. This though leaves Bursa within the Greek zone which is highly problematic to put it mildly politically. And so on...
formion
Banned
So, the million dollar question is what Venizelos will go for:
Would a greek european-side Constantinople be his target? If that is so, did he actually wanted Constantinople?
Or does Venizelos prefer a League City Constantinople? It seems that the Entente would prefer a League City as it gives them more influence over the Straits than a straight-up divided Bosporus where both Greece and Turkey would have full sovereignty. In that case, Constantinople is basically a bargaining chip.
Lastly, the fate of Constantinople may be tied to the great matter of the Ottoman Public Debt. This is actually what matters most to Britain, other than control of the strategic waterway. In that case, the status of the City can be used by the Entente as a bargaining chip.
There's the precedent of Crete and East Rumelia. So Venizelos could easily see a League Constantinople turning into Greek Constantinople within the next 10-20 years. Come down to it there was the story in some Venizelist writers that the allies had already agreed to placing a Greek general commissioner in Constantinople at the time of the 1920 elections but no paper trail proving the claim exists. But by the same token Kemal could expect the same so could well prefer half of Constantinople to losing all of Constantinople. So the other big question is what Kemal would be thinking on the matter?
formion
Banned
I think the problem is that Kemal, in contrast to OTL is not victorious and has lost large swathes of Anatolia. He is a war hero, but he is now discredited. The various notables of the Grand National Assembly have more influence in policy making. One far-sighted individual can sacrifice the City: a body of politicians, officers and warlords would be hard pressed to make such decision and abandon the european part of Constantinople.
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I think the scapegoats you are looking for are Ismet Inonu and Refet Bele. Just saying.
