That Codreanu would attempt something of the short, being around was... well plausible. Now the short to long term effects are a different matter.Looks like my intuition that Codreanu would be a Romanian version of Szalasi with the Iron Guard filling the role of the Arrow Cross/Government of National Unity in Hungary ITTL was right.
Minor technical point. The Soviets are sitting at Uskudar at the moment. On average that's less than 1.5km across to the European side. If the plan is a naval assault on Constantinople... what you really need is comrade Gorshkov's Danube flottila and a lot of artillery on the land side... what the Turks did in 1941 TTL. A heavy cruiser and a destroyer flotilla indicates a target somewhere on the Black Sea coast not inside the straits. Like... Kumkoy for example.Is this a typo or did the UN form a year earlier and I don’t remember it at all? I’m assuming this is the United States or United Kingdom? Either way I have a sneaking suspicion that that Soviet flotilla is gonna be rerouting from Constantinople to Romania when that’s announced. At least I hope so. It would he nice to see the Wallies smarten up about such things after the last time, and I could see the Bulgarians wanting to keep the Soviets out like the Turks wanted to keep the Greeks out.
A few hours may be an exaggeration. The outskirts of Sofia are within range of Greek artillery. At least the M1 Long Tom they Americans have kindly provided as part of Lend Lease.The Bulgarians pretty much delivering Constantinople to the Soviets wont do them any favors when time comes for receiving terms from the WAllies that are a few hours outside of Sofia by now .
The "Ataturk" division is getting mauled at the moment by French colonial troops somewhere to the north of Skopje so that's not much of an issue...I wasn’t trying to say that was the Bulgarians plan, my mistake if it came across that way. I think the Soviets were going to attempt a naval invasion on the city, hence the timing of the declaration of war and the loaning of the Turkish ships. I think that the Bulgarians are going to foil it with this armistice and quick WAllied movement to prevent a repeat of the Turkish situation. I’d kinda find it hilarious for the Soviets to show up expecting the city to surrender to them only for some kid from the Greek resistance telling them to go be useful somewhere else, they’ve already got things here under control. The only people I can see disagreeing with that are the Turks who joined up with the Germans instead of surrendering.
East Thrace and Constantinople were annexed by Bulgaria, a way for the Germans to try to keep Bulgaria sweet, and left to the Bulgarians own devices to defend. Which for the Bulgarian soldiers assigned there was something of a plum assignment... as long as one does not fall in the hands of Greek or Pomak guerillas. If he does, well bad things tend to happen given the treatment of the civilian population during the occupation.And if they’re still even there, which considering the Germans more or less pulled out with the Romanians a month or two ago is unlikely, I find it very unlikely the Bulgarians stationed there let them do anything before they hand everything over to the Wallies.
Let me note that the Serb liberals are the ones dominating the government in exile. That you are a liberal in this day and era does not mean you are not a nationalist. Quite the contrary...There is the other option in all this. We’re assuming that the Yugoslavian government/ the Serbs are going to win this hypothetical civil conflict. And we’re trying to come up with way for them to do that and what the results might be. If they can’t come to some accord with the southern minority groups though, they could very well lose the civil war. To be honest I think that might be the most likely outcome. The Southern minority’s resist their persecution and ally with what remains of the collaborationist/nationalist forces. The communist nationalists rise up in the north. Serbian communist and liberals rise up against the royal government who hasn’t learned to compromise in their exile.
The Bulgarian troops would tend at least in the rank and file to feel more friendly to their Russian brethren than the Greeks. Now that does not necessarily mean much but without orders it's hardly a given that a Bulgarian officer that had to choose between Soviets or Greeks would not jump on the side of the Soviets instead of the second traditional enemy...The United Nations was the official name of the Allies before it transitioned into the organization as we know it today.
As for the rest of the update, obvious is obvious and as others have said the fleet is most likely going to Constantinople and Bulgaria's surrender threw a massive wrench in the plan (and the Turkish SS units others have mentioned are probably elsewhere since Sofia would have had both time and reasons to get them sent elsewhere). I do, however, disagree with the notion they'll get redirected to Romania, as the straits are just too important for the Kremlin...
I do think the Soviets might have become a bit cockie in assuming it would all work out as it did in Uskandhar. Unlike the Turks the Bulgarians would not have let them waltz in, amphibious operations are not a joke (and the Soviets don't have a ton of resources to do it either), you had other Bulgarian troops in the vicinity and a landing near the old city would have most likely triggered an uprising from the Greek resistance in the city, which would have lead to an ''interesting'' situation between the two forces in the city had the Soviet landing been successful...
Well how likely was it for his bomb, sorry aircraft, to blow up in flight. His was the only one to do so IMS so statistics are on Joe's side. Now this may have unintended consequences mid to long term...As it is, I can see two plausible scenarios: either, as others have guessed, the Soviets are met by a resistance firmly in charge of the city or they come in time and, either with or without previous fighting depending on the exact timing, we are in the ''interesting'' scenario outlined above, with the added bonus of both side competing with little subtlety for getting uber local surrenders over every single block in the city...
There was also some douzy on the Western Front, starting with Joe Kennedy Jr. surviving its ITTL version of his OTL
Ochoa was a liberal... even though he ended up leading the Nationalists TTL, in this he's not unlike Pangalos in OTL Greece. His agreement with his former enemies when the Falangists at German instigation restarted the civil war and a provisional government established was elections 6 months after the end of the civil war. That got delayed with the provisional government and the communists happily humming along... well now we see the reason why.death and, far more immediately, Falaise being set to be an even more massive WAllied victory then in OTL and Spain joining the war. Overall that will probably increase the WAllies' edge on schedule compared to OTL even further and if Ochoa is this preoccupied with being in the West's good graces odds he will allow Spain to transition back to democracy, which is obviously good.
Now in the city you have both Greek Army of the Interion and People's Army resistance units... are you certain comrade Makedon would be finding the presence of allied Soviet troops objectionable?Huh. TIL. I consider myself decently knowledgeable on WW2 and never knew that. Thanks for telling me.
Unless the Soviets are already at the city when the announcement is made I can’t see them taking it before the resistance takes over. And after the Turkish surrender shenanigans they pulled I can’t see them letting the Russians in. Because I can’t see the Greeks not preparing for them to pull that crap again and telling all the local resistances how to play such a situation. Maybe they land as close by as they can but I’m not sure they can get a landing off anywhere before some Greeks show up and tell them everything is fine and to shove off. I can’t see even the Americans finding that objectionable.
Does payback for starting a war by proxy against his country and hunting down the Falangists the Germans have given shelter to count a good additional incentive? Gibraltar... there is no change Britain even discuss this at this stage of the war...I’m not convinced he did this purely to stay in the good graces of the west. While there’s very little cost to joining the obvious winning side and not being on the outs with the Wallies is nice, is that enough to get you to force your country to join the third war it’s been a part of in a decade? Alone I’m not sure it is. I can’t see the British ever giving up Gibraltar, but I could see the Spanish getting the Tangiers international zone added to their protectorate. It just might not have been announced yet.
If it is founded how much larger is ot likely to be? Greece is likely a founding member. Turkey is out, the British had misgivings about it joining in OTL. TTL forget about it. Sweden, if bad things happen to Finland is not unlikely to joint. Spain is a likely candidate. Yugoslavia very much depends on its post-war situation.I do think that Spain is destined to be a founding member of NATO at this point though. It’s interesting how much larger the organization is likely to be upon founding ITTL.
The blue white cross is not nor was it ever the national flag. It had been the state flag and was and remains the army regimental colours as well (with St George in the center of the cross).View attachment 877932
Here's a neat poster circa 1943, fyi that's meant to be Belgium rather than Romania in the center, the color has gone a bit weird in digital. Also I think Greece's flag is still the blue/white cross ttl.
They are pushing east as fast as they can in the face of Bulgarian resistence. At the time of the armistice their easternmost elements are nearing Alexandroupolis. Which puts them about 340km from Constantinople. The resistance... remember at this point you have Greeks, moth communists and non-communists, Armenians, even Turkish stay-behind groups...I think there's a possibility that the Greeks will push towards Constantinople themselves with their own armies while the Greek Resistance holds up against the Soviets, since I'd think the Bulgars would allow the Greeks to move in, as they have already unconditionally surrendered to both the Americans and the Soviets.
Joe if he survives to 1945 is quite likely to be getting the political mantle of the family. Does that automatically mean he becomes US president? It likely makes him potential candidate for president but that's different...I do think Constantinople could be Western-controlled if the Americans allow the Greeks to move into the City ASAP.
Ochoa is a radical republican, I think he'll act to bring back democracy just bc of that, and he has been ruling for quite a while now. Joe Kennedy surviving is quite interesting too, and if he becomes an American president ittl it'd be quite interesting.
Certainly there is a LOT of bad blood between Greeks and Bulgarians, Sebs and Bulgarians too for that matter. Getting Bulgaria into alt-NATO if it exists would not be the easiest of sells even inside Bulgaria where there has always been a strong pro-Russian element couples with a very strong communist part in the interwar...Onto other things, Serbia is basically going to be under monarchical control, while Rommel leaves for Germany (and probably suffers a similar fate than otl I wager. Unfortunate.), and I wonder would we see a neutral Bulgaria and a Communist Romania, since the Bulgarians definitely won't trust the Greeks and Americans and Brits I think, and would be quite close to the Soviets. I think it is a possibility that could happen, and I'm surprised that so little ppl have suggested it.
The reserve signals officer in me would note going radio silent means you are not emitting yourself. Not that you are not eavesdropping on others.Oh god I could just see that happening. The invasion force being told to go radio silent for maximum stealth. They don’t know the Bulgarians surrendered. The go in gun blazing trying to make a naval landing work. The Greek resistance and the Bulgarians fight it off. The Greek upper command freaking out because they think the Soviets are invading. It would be a comedy of errors but I can easily imagine that disaster.
I'm sympathetic to Curzon B myself but I'm open to reasonable arguments for or against. We are still in 1944 not very many things in the final peace settlement are cast in stone.As for Poland keeping some more of its prewar land because of a more physically eastern GDR, it’s certainly possible. I could also see the Soviets telling the Poles that it’s tough all over and to suck it up. The territory given to the Lithuanians might be the most likely outside of East Prussia and what Curzon line B covers. After all the Soviets don’t particularly like the Lithuanian as opposed to the Belarusians and Ukrainians.
Take... Constantinople for example. The Soviets have every reason to hold fast on the Asiatic side and they will, come hell or high water. The European side now, if they cannot avoid its control by western troops does it matter to them much how the west rules it beyond scoring diplomatic/propaganda points?
Countries do have that tendency to get paranoid when they find out that you have penetrated their most secret war project to a laughable degree with the implications on what this might mean on other parts of government. And the cold war did not start on account of the Red Scare.Why would everybody assume there will be GDR? Stalin had no definite plans for Germany. Or Eastern Europe. What Stalin generally wanted (circa the end of war) was broadening Soviet zone of influence, a warm-water port, and 6 billion US loan to reconstruct Soviet economy. He was not counting on Cold War starting because of inflated Red Scare.
Somehow no country ever took well to the concept of getting thoroughly penetrated by the security services of another...Considering how penetrated the Manhattan Project was you can call the Red Scare a lot of things but inflated isn't one of them. McCarthy was a bullshitter but there were a lot of Soviet agents in sensitive locations in the US (and Britain).
Or not. Model after all played the same games OTL as well. Now there is a difference that could affect things further down the line... Monty is leading the 14th army in Burma at the moment.In OTL the retreat was sounded on August 17, and I suppose the same is possible ITTL, but the last update does give the sense that the Germans are very much still ''not there'' in term of ordering the retreat so the WAllies will probably get a few precious extra days to close the trap.
No nuclear program is overstating things. The Sovies had a program underway since 1942 and were delving into the idea since at least 1940..That was the primary aim of Soviet espionage but
a. It's not unreasonable that the US would want to obtain a monopoly, any more than the Soviet's would want to break it
b. The fact that the Soviet's were able to obtain so much information, so quickly, leading to going from essentially no nuclear program to a working bomb in 4 years says everything about how penetrated the US was and American unease about that was totally reasonable and sensible, imagine how Stalin would have reacted were the situations reversed, the death toll would have been measured in the millions.
The Greeks would be... ill advised to start a fight with Soviet troops. Not that if the Soviets start a fight they won't fight back.I could definitely see this happening, plus the greek army barreling towards Constantinople things would be even more interesting... Ittl the first shots of the Cold war might very well be shot in Constantinople.
Why the West wants a single Germany? Roosevelt was talking about 5 states and both Churchill and Stalin were talking aout an independent Bavaria among other things.Tbf I agree, especially if the Soviets don't manage to get to Germany beyond Silesia and Pomerania. Yalta would be very different if things were like this. There's no way the WAllies would give Pomernia to the Soviets if they want it to be part of Germany while the Soviets want it to be part of Poland.
Vichy France got occupied quite a bit ago. But the Spanish add one more enemy in south-western France... not that this will matter all ltoo much given the likely speed of the German collapse in south France. But Spain joining the war also means opening Bilbao and Barcelona to Allied shipping and of course makes the life of German submarines even more difficult... as if it was not bad enough already by this time.A tighter Falaise pocket definitely would be good for the WAllies and may allow them to march to Germany (they'd basically be in Northern Germany) a lot faster than otl. And if we see the Spanish march into Vichy France things would definitely be different too.
Shaking of the taint of being aligned to the Axis and settling scores with Germany for that little mess it instigated back in 1941 another 200,000 military deaths seem good enough reasons...What does spain get in return joining the war?
Bulgaria is under a non communist government, the communists do participate in it not unlike Italy... and has excellent reasons to avoid alienating the SovietsI honestly hope that Bulgaria can manage to avoid being a Soviet puppet like OTL at this point