The Bulgarians pretty much delivering Constantinople to the Soviets wont do them any favors when time comes for receiving terms from the WAllies that are a few hours outside of Sofia by now .
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
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I wasn’t trying to say that was the Bulgarians plan, my mistake if it came across that way. I think the Soviets were going to attempt a naval invasion on the city, hence the timing of the declaration of war and the loaning of the Turkish ships. I think that the Bulgarians are going to foil it with this armistice and quick WAllied movement to prevent a repeat of the Turkish situation. I’d kinda find it hilarious for the Soviets to show up expecting the city to surrender to them only for some kid from the Greek resistance telling them to go be useful somewhere else, they’ve already got things here under control. The only people I can see disagreeing with that are the Turks who joined up with the Germans instead of surrendering. And if they’re still even there, which considering the Germans more or less pulled out with the Romanians a month or two ago is unlikely, I find it very unlikely the Bulgarians stationed there let them do anything before they hand everything over to the Wallies.
There is the other option in all this. We’re assuming that the Yugoslavian government/ the Serbs are going to win this hypothetical civil conflict. And we’re trying to come up with way for them to do that and what the results might be. If they can’t come to some accord with the southern minority groups though, they could very well lose the civil war. To be honest I think that might be the most likely outcome. The Southern minority’s resist their persecution and ally with what remains of the collaborationist/nationalist forces. The communist nationalists rise up in the north. Serbian communist and liberals rise up against the royal government who hasn’t learned to compromise in their exile. Hell it’s only been 25 years, we might see the Montenegrins decide to make an attempt to go it alone again seeing what a mess this whole thing turned into. It’s not like unification was unopposed despite what Serbia likes to pretend. So yeah if the Serbs can’t or won’t compromise a loss against so many potential forces opposing them seems quite possible. It would be quite interesting to see the effect that losing a member of the “west” in Europe so early in the game might do to Western foreign policy. I could imagine it going in any number of different direction
The Allies called themselves the United Nations from pretty early on. There are some posters with "United Nations fight for freedom". "Declaration by United Nations" dating to 1942.
The United Nations was the official name of the Allies before it transitioned into the organization as we know it today.
As for the rest of the update, obvious is obvious and as others have said the fleet is most likely going to Constantinople and Bulgaria's surrender threw a massive wrench in the plan (and the Turkish SS units others have mentioned are probably elsewhere since Sofia would have had both time and reasons to get them sent elsewhere). I do, however, disagree with the notion they'll get redirected to Romania, as the straits are just too important for the Kremlin...
I do think the Soviets might have become a bit cockie in assuming it would all work out as it did in Uskandhar. Unlike the Turks the Bulgarians would not have let them waltz in, amphibious operations are not a joke (and the Soviets don't have a ton of resources to do it either), you had other Bulgarian troops in the vicinity and a landing near the old city would have most likely triggered an uprising from the Greek resistance in the city, which would have lead to an ''interesting'' situation between the two forces in the city had the Soviet landing been successful...
As it is, I can see two plausible scenarios: either, as others have guessed, the Soviets are met by a resistance firmly in charge of the city or they come in time and, either with or without previous fighting depending on the exact timing, we are in the ''interesting'' scenario outlined above, with the added bonus of both side competing with little subtlety for getting uber local surrenders over every single block in the city...
There was also some douzy on the Western Front, starting with Joe Kennedy Jr. surviving its ITTL version of his OTL death and, far more immediately, Falaise being set to be an even more massive WAllied victory then in OTL and Spain joining the war. Overall that will probably increase the WAllies' edge on schedule compared to OTL even further and if Ochoa is this preoccupied with being in the West's good graces odds he will allow Spain to transition back to democracy, which is obviously good.
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Huh. TIL. I consider myself decently knowledgeable on WW2 and never knew that. Thanks for telling me.
Unless the Soviets are already at the city when the announcement is made I can’t see them taking it before the resistance takes over. And after the Turkish surrender shenanigans they pulled I can’t see them letting the Russians in. Because I can’t see the Greeks not preparing for them to pull that crap again and telling all the local resistances how to play such a situation. Maybe they land as close by as they can but I’m not sure they can get a landing off anywhere before some Greeks show up and tell them everything is fine and to shove off. I can’t see even the Americans finding that objectionable.
Do we have evidences of this? Everything has just been Rommel following the OTL script for the most part as far as I can tell.
I’m not convinced he did this purely to stay in the good graces of the west. While there’s very little cost to joining the obvious winning side and not being on the outs with the Wallies is nice, is that enough to get you to force your country to join the third war it’s been a part of in a decade? Alone I’m not sure it is. I can’t see the British ever giving up Gibraltar, but I could see the Spanish getting the Tangiers international zone added to their protectorate. It just might not have been announced yet.
I do think that Spain is destined to be a founding member of NATO at this point though. It’s interesting how much larger the organization is likely to be upon founding ITTL.
Here's a neat poster circa 1943, fyi that's meant to be Belgium rather than Romania in the center, the color has gone a bit weird in digital. Also I think Greece's flag is still the blue/white cross ttl.
I'm curious what the Soviets are up to, Constantinople is the obvious pick but as others pointed out it's likely to be in western allied hands in one fashion or another by the time they arrive. Which could mean a not small amount of egg on the Soviet's face, especially if they go in guns blazing. One might wonder how such attempted shenanigans would affect the post-war calculus...
I still kinda feel like the post war borders are likely to be decided much more by boots on the ground when compared to otl. Maybe East Germany is shifted a bit further east and Poland keeps slightly more of its pre-war territory as compensation?
Any reason why the Allies being further east would mean the GDR would be shifted a bit further east?
My logic was for the GDR to be large enough to be a vaguely self-sustaining nation and not comically small on a map. I was picturing something along these lines... Although this was more for my own fun I admit.
I think there's a possibility that the Greeks will push towards Constantinople themselves with their own armies while the Greek Resistance holds up against the Soviets, since I'd think the Bulgars would allow the Greeks to move in, as they have already unconditionally surrendered to both the Americans and the Soviets.
I do think Constantinople could be Western-controlled if the Americans allow the Greeks to move into the City ASAP.
Ochoa is a radical republican, I think he'll act to bring back democracy just bc of that, and he has been ruling for quite a while now. Joe Kennedy surviving is quite interesting too, and if he becomes an American president ittl it'd be quite interesting.
Onto other things, Serbia is basically going to be under monarchical control, while Rommel leaves for Germany (and probably suffers a similar fate than otl I wager. Unfortunate.), and I wonder would we see a neutral Bulgaria and a Communist Romania, since the Bulgarians definitely won't trust the Greeks and Americans and Brits I think, and would be quite close to the Soviets. I think it is a possibility that could happen, and I'm surprised that so little ppl have suggested it.
Oh god I could just see that happening. The invasion force being told to go radio silent for maximum stealth. They don’t know the Bulgarians surrendered. The go in gun blazing trying to make a naval landing work. The Greek resistance and the Bulgarians fight it off. The Greek upper command freaking out because they think the Soviets are invading. It would be a comedy of errors but I can easily imagine that disaster.
As for Poland keeping some more of its prewar land because of a more physically eastern GDR, it’s certainly possible. I could also see the Soviets telling the Poles that it’s tough all over and to suck it up. The territory given to the Lithuanians might be the most likely outside of East Prussia and what Curzon line B covers. After all the Soviets don’t particularly like the Lithuanian as opposed to the Belarusians and Ukrainians.
Note that the GDR's position will depend not on the frontlines at war's end but the agreed to occupation zones. If they agree upon the OTL zones then we'll have the OTL borders regardless.
Why would everybody assume there will be GDR? Stalin had no definite plans for Germany. Or Eastern Europe. What Stalin generally wanted (circa the end of war) was broadening Soviet zone of influence, a warm-water port, and 6 billion US loan to reconstruct Soviet economy. He was not counting on Cold War starting because of inflated Red Scare.
Considering how penetrated the Manhattan Project was you can call the Red Scare a lot of things but inflated isn't one of them. McCarthy was a bullshitter but there were a lot of Soviet agents in sensitive locations in the US (and Britain).
In OTL the retreat was sounded on August 17, and I suppose the same is possible ITTL, but the last update does give the sense that the Germans are very much still ''not there'' in term of ordering the retreat so the WAllies will probably get a few precious extra days to close the trap.
The only threat I see here is a threat to US monopoly on nuclear weapons.
If they actually close the trap, or mostly close it and and are able finish off the remains outside of Antwerp in a few weeks, the Wallies could easily march into northwestern German by October 1st.
I mean I have to agree. The red scare, at least initially wasn’t overblown. It was largely a reaction to the numerous civil wars and Coups throughout Eastern Europe perpetrated by the communists. Plus all the communists in sensitive locations in the government. I mean the US had good reason to be worried. Not that McCarthyism was a good response, but Stalin wasn’t innocent in the Cold War starting
That was the primary aim of Soviet espionage but
a. It's not unreasonable that the US would want to obtain a monopoly, any more than the Soviet's would want to break it
b. The fact that the Soviet's were able to obtain so much information, so quickly, leading to going from essentially no nuclear program to a working bomb in 4 years says everything about how penetrated the US was and American unease about that was totally reasonable and sensible, imagine how Stalin would have reacted were the situations reversed, the death toll would have been measured in the millions.
I could definitely see this happening, plus the greek army barreling towards Constantinople things would be even more interesting... Ittl the first shots of the Cold war might very well be shot in Constantinople.
Tbf I agree, especially if the Soviets don't manage to get to Germany beyond Silesia and Pomerania. Yalta would be very different if things were like this. There's no way the WAllies would give Pomernia to the Soviets if they want it to be part of Germany while the Soviets want it to be part of Poland.
A tighter Falaise pocket definitely would be good for the WAllies and may allow them to march to Germany (they'd basically be in Northern Germany) a lot faster than otl. And if we see the Spanish march into Vichy France things would definitely be different too.
pls don't ban me
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I honestly hope that Bulgaria can manage to avoid being a Soviet puppet like OTL at this point