Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I'm really curious to see what will happen to Spanish colonies after the end of WW2: especially the Ifni War with Marocco (if it ever happens) and the whole Western Sahara question.
Unlike almost every other country that was at war during this period, Spain is likely to be one of the few that are worse off than OTL, at least in the short term. Having a second civil war on top of the first is going to leave her even more devastated than OTL. Having a moderate-ish government this time around might help them achieve a diplomatic solution with Morocco though.

I think they might be an interesting outlier in that respect though. With the English and French armed forces so far being less mauled than OTL I have a feeling that there will be more willingness to keep some colonies. France in particular wasn’t happy about Decolonization and they may fight even harder to keep some areas.
 
Well. The issue is not per se availability of forces, but collapse of economies, and US-USSR support for decolonization.

That's very true and the major force behind decolonization. Having said that, it seems plausible that Spain might be an early NATO member. In OTL France supported Spain, so I guess that they would provide greater political support to a fellow NATO ally, despite the US policy. I think this new France, with the much more successful Free French movement might be stronger internally. And a France that has smaller internal problems, is a France that can pursuit her interests abroad with greater confidence. Granted, it might not mean much in the case of Spanish Sahara, but it is bound to produce some butterflies.
 
That's very true and the major force behind decolonization. Having said that, it seems plausible that Spain might be an early NATO member. In OTL France supported Spain, so I guess that they would provide greater political support to a fellow NATO ally, despite the US policy. I think this new France, with the much more successful Free French movement might be stronger internally. And a France that has smaller internal problems, is a France that can pursuit her interests abroad with greater confidence. Granted, it might not mean much in the case of Spanish Sahara, but it is bound to produce some butterflies.
Yeah this was my thought process as well. I’m not saying that decolonization won’t still happen, but I could definitely see a faction of NATO forming that’s focused on keeping some of their colonies. Portugal, France, and possibly Spain would likely be the core of this group as they were the ones to that tried to hold on the longest OTL. They might not be anymore successful than OTL, but the French in particular could fight harder for the parts of their empire that that they see as “essential”. And they might help out the countries they see as dealing with similar issues. It might all end up the same as our timeline, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more French possessions around the world that stayed French. And I wouldn’t be surprised if she helped Spain and Portugal keep additional small portions of their empires as well.
 
I can see a Western Sahara model in Algeria. But Portugal's future will depend if the Estate Nuovo survives. A democratic Spain might be its death knell. Also of course events in thecME will affect decolonization in North Africa.
 
Yeah this was my thought process as well. I’m not saying that decolonization won’t still happen, but I could definitely see a faction of NATO forming that’s focused on keeping some of their colonies. Portugal, France, and possibly Spain would likely be the core of this group as they were the ones to that tried to hold on the longest OTL. They might not be anymore successful than OTL, but the French in particular could fight harder for the parts of their empire that that they see as “essential”. And they might help out the countries they see as dealing with similar issues. It might all end up the same as our timeline, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more French possessions around the world that stayed French. And I wouldn’t be surprised if she helped Spain and Portugal keep additional small portions of their empires as well.
Tbf I could see France attempting to retain Algeria same as otl and doing better ittl. I do feel Spain would be pressured by America to lose their colony in Morocco tho, and considering how devestated Spain is I could see them fighting in general.
 
I can see a Western Sahara model in Algeria. But Portugal's future will depend if the Estate Nuovo survives. A democratic Spain might be its death knell. Also of course events in thecME will affect decolonization in North Africa.
I don’t think Portugals colonial future is tied up as completely with the dictatorship as we traditionally think. The incredibly strong military response absolutely is. But there’s no reason a government focused on keeping some colonies with weak independence movements but cutting their loses elsewhere couldn’t do so. Cape Verde for example never had a particular strong independence movement, so if they directed some of the money they spent on the military responses in mainland Africa to address the issues the people living there had it could likely be retained. São Tomé and Principe and Cabinda are other possibilities.
Is there any problem of Spain with Morocco in this TTL? Or do you mean something about Western Sahara?
Specifically I was thinking of the issues that led to the Ifni War between Spain and Morocco. Which included the Western Sahara area as well. I could see the current Spanish government trading most of that to Morocco if it meant they could keep Ifni though.
Tbf I could see France attempting to retain Algeria same as otl and doing better ittl. I do feel Spain would be pressured by America to lose their colony in Morocco tho, and considering how devestated Spain is I could see them fighting in general.
I do see the French fighting to retain Algeria, and I could see them doing better. But it would be better if you could prevent the war completely. That might not be possible, but if you prevent the Setif and Guelma massacres from happening it would go a very long way towards keeping the peace in general and maintaining Muslin support for the French. Tempering the response should at least be possible. Maybe with a stronger free France different officers and different men are around. Guelma in particular was peaceful so it shouldn’t be hard to avoid that one completely. With a stronger army and better relations with the local population a victory of some kind in Algeria is much more possible.

Without local support though it’s hard to see the French doing that much better, even with more manpower. Maybe they could keep a few coastal cities but anything beyond that is hard to see.
 
You are all ignoring the main matter. All european colonies are rentier based exploitative regimes. With the downturn in economics due to the war, and the focus on rebuilding metropoles, it will take frankly very enlightened attitudes to prioritize economic changes in the rentier systems that could create sufficiently broad affluence and development to puruade the majority of the colonial population , the perennial losers in this system, to support remaining colonies. The goal is still to exploit the colonies forvthe benefit of the metrople. Rhetorical declarations of integration of the type the Portugese and French tried are not enough.

Which colonial power is going to attempt true land reform?

Also, you are forgetting. The Europeans did well enough in using force. Most colonial insurgencies were defeated OTL. It was not enough.
 
You are all ignoring the main matter. All european colonies are rentier based exploitative regimes. With the downturn in economics due to the war, and the focus on rebuilding metropoles, it will take frankly very enlightened attitudes to prioritize economic changes in the rentier systems that could create sufficiently broad affluence and development to puruade the majority of the colonial population , the perennial losers in this system, to support remaining colonies. The goal is still to exploit the colonies forvthe benefit of the metrople. Rhetorical declarations of integration of the type the Portugese and French tried are not enough.

Which colonial power is going to attempt true land reform?

Also, you are forgetting. The Europeans did well enough in using force. Most colonial insurgencies were defeated OTL. It was not enough.
Prioritize? That’s certainly out of the question. I’m not trying to be unrealistic. The colonial system was as exploitive as you say. But adjusting some of the economics a few years after the war in Portugal so it spend less on the military and more domestically and a little on the colonies? That seems possible. Especially if the dictatorship falls and the democracy that follows wants to atleast look like it’s trying to treat them equally. More countries cutting the major dead weight and focusing on what could be feasibly kept? That seems possible. The French not completely destroying any unity the people of Algeria might have had with them by not killing the while celebrating the end of WW2? That also seems easily achievable.

Decolonization was coming. That’s inevitable at this point. How all encompassing it is in TTL is still up in the air though. I’m just saying that the Iberians might be smarter about it this time, and that France has a chance of Algerians not being as completely against them as they were OTL.
 
@Lascaris just one thing if you may: what happened to the Tangier International Zone ITTL? Did Spain ever occupy the territory after the fall of France to not?
I don't see why they would not. The civil war is over at that moment and I don't see why any Spanish government at the time
Also, did Ochoa allow the Italians to carry out attacks against Gibraltar or not? Especially what happened with the Olterra?
No. After all the second civil war begun due to Ochoa staying neutral.
 
Part 141
Burma, February 23rd, 1944

Rajabil had fallen the the 7th Indian Division the previous month. Now the Japanese 55th Infantry Division attacked back, trying to seize it back. Despite pressure, Montgomery would not release reinforcements to the defending Indian troops. He would be proven true as the Indians held out against all Japanese attacks.

Batum, February 24, 1944

Over a thousand conscripts begun to disembark from the train. It had been recognized by the STAVKA, that Triandafillov was right, in his requests for reinforcements before the offensive against Turkey could be resumed. Over 146,000 men and nearly 700 tanks had been assigned to reinforce the Caucasus front and were being dispatched south. The STAVKA had been forced to delay the planned offensive against Finland and pull out from the Far East another five tank brigades in order to find the needed forces but Stalin had decreed that the offensive against Turkey should take priority. And what the vozd decreed happened.

Berlin, February 27th, 1944

The order to continue arms shipments to Turkey was given. Von Papen's reports from Sivas about Cakmak having meetings with politicians outside the government were concerning and Turkey's importance to the German war effort reduced after Slim seizing the Ergani chrome mines. But Turkey was still tying down hundreds of thousands of Allied and Soviet troops at relatively limited cost to Germany. But at the same time field marshal Von Weichs, the commander of Heeresgruppe E, was keeping all the replacements he was getting to his divisions in the Balkans. The five German divisions in Anatolia hardly had between six and seven thousand men each. Von Weichs would hardly mind pulling the divisions out outright if allowed from Berlin, He was not. And with the Turkish railroad network unable to hande moving more than a division a month till spring came, he could not even if allowed.

Norfolk Navy Yard, March 1st, 1944

What would become USS Tarawa, the nineteenth Essex class carrier was laid down. Simultaneously one more carrier was being laid down in the Brooklyn Navy Yard. Eight carriers were already in service with the USN. Another dozen were under construction, four had already been launched and yet more were being planned. Not a single purpose built fleet carrier had joined the Japanese navy since the start of the war. Six were building but by the time they completed at least two dozen Essex class carriers were likely to be in service. And this didn't even count the four British fleet carriers under construction...

Right Bank Ukraine, March 4th, 1944

The massive Soviet offensive to liberate Western Ukraine, start in late December had appeared to have come to an end with the capture of Krivoj Rog and Soviet forces advancing to the Inhulets river in the end of February. But as over 2.1 million Soviet soldiers resumed the offensive this would prove just wishful thinking. The ordeal of the German, Romanian and Hungarian forces would go on and keep getting worse.

South-Eastern Anatolia, March 7th, 1944

The southern front sprang to life as British, French and Iranian forces went to the attack. Progress was very slow, since the last offensive De Lattre had lost the 3e Division Blindee which had gone to Greece and the 10e Division Infanterie Coloniale, which had gone to Italy ans Slim was left with two Indian divisions, the Arab legion, by now expanded to a light division and seven brigades of Kurdish volunteers. Between them the three allied armies had a bit over 227,000 men facing nearly 171,000 Turkish and German soldiers. But the offensive even if going slow accomplished its goal of keeping the 2nd Turkish army engaged in heavy fighting and unable to dispatch reinforcements elsewhere.

Burma, March 8th, 1944

The Japanese 15th Army went to the offensive in Manipur aiming to capture Imphal and Kohima. But the 14th army was numerically superior, better armed, better supplied and well dug in. Bernard Montgomery had made certain his forces were thoroughly prepared...

Smyrna, March 11th, 1944

Another bunch of Challenger tanks was taken off the ships to be driven to the train station. From there they would be shipped to the III Armoured Division somewhere to the north of Palaiokastron [1]. The nine divisions of the Army of Asia Minor under Ptolemaios Sarigiannis had grown to more than a quarter million men and six hundred artillery pieces. The flow of men and supplies went on...

Budapest, March 15th, 1944

The Hungarian prime minister Miklos Kallay had start negotiations with the western allies over changing sides. But word had reached Germany and after the disaster that had been the Italian surrender the previous August, the Germans had had no intention of taking any chances. Which the Hungarian regent, admiral Horthy had been tricked into visiting Germany to consult with Hitler, several German divisions had invaded and occupied Hungary. Resistance had been virtually non existent, the Hungarian army had not fought against the Germans. Within days a new puppet government under Dome Sztojay would be established. The Hungarian army which had not fought against the invaders would continue to fight against the Allies.

Helsinki, March 21st, 1944

The Finnish government rejected Soviet peace terms. There appeared to be no immediate threat to Finland. Hopefully if the country held out some more it would extract better terns...

Caucasus, March 22nd, 1944

The largest artillery barrage in the history of Anatolia, signaled the beginning of the Caucasus Front's offensive, as Vladimir Triandafilloov unleashed 433,000 Soviet soldiers and 966 tanks against the Turkish 3rd army and its German allies. The Turks and Germans under Fahrettin Altay were well dug in but were also heavily outnumbers with about 242,000 men between them.

Western Anatolia, March 23rd, 1944

The Turkish Western Front had been the only one not to be under Allied attack. Or rather it had been the only one not to be under attack for the single day between the beginning of the Soviet attack in the Caucasus and its 181,000 men finding themselves under attack from the Greek Army of Asia Minor...

[1] Balikesir
 
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Huh, it seems Finland may be able to gain better terms from Moscow with their front basically becoming the third front for the Soviets and with operations picking up in the Balkans and Anatolia.
 
Huh, it seems Finland may be able to gain better terms from Moscow with their front basically becoming the third front for the Soviets and with operations picking up in the Balkans and Anatolia.
Not, in fact, I fear that it will be quite the opposite and that the Finns may come to lament to have let pass it as some sort of lost opportunity...
 
What would become USS Tarawa, the nineteenth Essex class carrier was laid down. Simultaneously one more carrier was being laid down in the Brooklyn Navy Yard. Eight carriers were already in service with the USN. Another dozen were under construction, four had already been launched and yet more were being planned. Not a single purpose built fleet carrier had joined the Japanese navy since the start of the war. Six were building but by the time they completed at least two dozen Essex class carriers were likely to be in service. And this didn't even count the four British fleet carriers under construction...
Isn’t this basically OTL? I’m not well versed on Naval stuff so I don’t see the difference if there is one.

As for all the Finland discussion, I don’t see what all the negativity is about. The Finns didn’t surrender until almost when the war was over anyway OTL. The Soviets will have likely had similar or worse casualties when this is all over baring something unexpected like a successful Valkyrie that suddenly stops the war. So I can’t see the Finns getting a worse deal. I don’t know if they’ll get a better one either, but I could see both sides just agreeing to reinstate the treaty of Moscow with no changes this time which would let Finland keep Petsamo. If the Soviet army is more bloodied and the Finns relatively untouched because what forces would have been used in OTL’s Vyborg Offensive are currently dying in Turkey, maybe the Finns can claw back a bit of territory. The Lost portion of Salla and the Rybachi peninsula seems easier to sell to the Soviets than anything in Karelia.

I can only see Karelia happening if something completely unexpected happens. Like the Battle of the Bulge doesn’t happen and the forces used there go East. Which is unlikely unless a Valkyrie happens and the Germans accept they’re going to lose but don’t want to surrender to the Soviets. Which is possible but I wouldn’t count on it. I would love to see a Finnish Viipuri when all is said and done, but at the moment it’s hard to see that happening.
 
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