Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Quinkana]

Snip

The WAllies getting to the Olympus passes and stopping there is a bit sad but I'd think ppl expected it.

Hmm where is the WAllies army being shipped to tho? Hopefully the Symrna Front could have some movement. Or is the Italian front being assaulted?

 

[Tursiops Amicus]

The WAllies getting to the Olympus passes and stopping there is a bit sad but I'd think ppl expected it.

Hmm where is the WAllies army being shipped to tho? Hopefully the Symrna Front could have some movement. Or is the Italian front being assaulted?

I think only Smyrna and maybe Sicily are worth enough objectives. All other nearby fronts are along high mountain ranges with snow and possesses difficult logistics.
Sicily has the potential to drive Italy out of the war and then, without Italian troops, making easier to bypass Olympus passes.
Smyrna also has the potential of driving Turkey out of the war.

 

[emperor joe]

I wonder were those units are headed, my money is on the syrian front but i am waiting for lascaris to surprise us

 

[stapet]

Why not prepare for a pincer movement against the forces singing down Smyrna
That way they will disable th Turkish army and free the field for offensives towards the southern and northern Turkish fronts

 

[emperor joe]

I think only Smyrna and maybe Sicily are worth enough objectives. All other nearby fronts are along high mountain ranges with snow and possesses difficult logistics.
Sicily has the potential to drive Italy out of the war and then, without Italian troops, making easier to bypass Olympus passes.
Smyrna also has the potential of driving Turkey out of the war.

Maybe...but naval landings in the middle of winter are difficult if not impossible

 

[Dunois]

Another solid update Lascaris.
I have to credit you for inspiring me to read Ionian Vision by Michael Llewellyn-Smith .
Its a fantastic read so far.

 

[Lascaris]

Country	Military Casualties in Near East fronts 1942
Greece	36,085
Britain	31,309
France	27,126
Poland	6,273
Yugoslavia	9,050
USA	3,264
Iran	8,562
Germany	76,010
Italy	106,667
Turkey	262,612
Bulgaria	67,341
Iraq	12,770
USSR	98,495

Country	Military Casualties in North Africa
Britain	29,558
France	32,000
USA	5,333
Germany	70,411
Italy	106,529

Greek civilian casualties by year	Deaths
1941	134,967
1942	155,231

 

[JSC]

I think the only logical front at this point for those troops is Smyrna. Sicily would be too far away and the Middle East forces have already exhausted themselves and need to rest and re-fit regardless of getting another division or two. Smyrna on the other hand has a lot of troops but lacks striking power; I can't imagine the allies would have sent any tanks to a static defensive front. Hence an armoured division or two married to the infantry divisions already on scene would represent a powerful striking force to break the siege lines and would have the added bonus of adding yet another "active" front to Turkey at a time when they can ill-afford it. I wonder how many units currently along the front in Southern Turkey and Middle East for example were recently transferred from Smyrna to replace losses. Especially those losses for Turkey are going to be harder and harder to replace if not in manpower than equipment. I had said earlier that I thought Turkey would be an army of essentially small arms and mortars by mid-1943 and nothing I have seen so far is changing my opinion on that.

I do wonder what 1943 could bring for Greece and Turkey. I feel like Turkey could be the first axis power aside from maybe Italy to try to bow out of the war offering an Ante Bellum peace with them keeping the East Side of Constantinople but than runs into problems of Greece outright refusing any peace that doesn't strengthen their security around Smyrna and European Constantinople. The old saying it only takes one to make war and everyone to make peace would seem to apply

 

[Andreas]

Well, I think we shouldn't take for granted that there will be an allied offensive right now.
The author has mentioned that there will be a conference at Casablanca in two weeks. Therefore, I suppose nothing will happen until then. After all, before any major operation, the units (leaving Piraeus) have to recuperate and train, and that would take at least six weeks.
And strategically it makes more sense to attack Italy. I mean, if Turkey is struck first, it will take a while before it's completely knocked out, since it has enough strategic depth to make a slow retreat. And even if Turkey capitulates, the overall situation for the Axis is still sustainable: large allied forces will be tied down on occupation duties of a large country, and Axis will have a pretty defensible front at Propontis and Olympus.
On the other hand, if Italy is the target, it can change the course of war altogether, even more than OTL, since if Mussolini collapses, so will the Axis front in the whole of the Balkans. How much to the North can the allies reach before Germany can check their advance? How many Italian units will be destroyed compared to the OTL? And if the Balkan front collapses, then isolated Turkey is doomed to capitulate, without much fight.
The only problem here is if the Allies think that Mussolini can collapse, given he is more successful than in OTL.

 

[X Oristos]

Judging from the author's comments on landing craft availability I doubt we will see any time soon an alt-Husky. That leaves Smyrna as the only logical destination. Patton, Triandafillov, de Lattre and Slim attacking at the same time ...

 

[galileo-034]

Americans had already their reservations about Italy, and so far, only Sicily has value in the way it is needed to secure the shipping lanes across the Central Mediterranean sea; as if a soft underbelly, Churchill already has the Balkans front active.

Turkey may have strategic depth, but it depends on which goal you try reaching: Sivas or Constantinople?
If the Allies were to break out of Smyrna towards the Straits and seize Constantinople along, they blow up the lock to the Black sea and open an alternate venue for the Lend Lease to reach the Soviets, provided whatever ports the Soviets still control in the Caucasus can handle the volume or even if they can be improved to handle greater volumes; I think that's a safer route than running past Norway towards Arkhangelsk and Murmansk, and it allows convoys to USSR to go a more southern route that is within reach of Allied airfields and further away from uboat bases.
At the very least, that's way more tempting a target than Italy.

 

[Quinkana]

Americans had already their reservations about Italy, and so far, only Sicily has value in the way it is needed to secure the shipping lanes across the Central Mediterranean sea; as if a soft underbelly, Churchill already has the Balkans front active.

Turkey may have strategic depth, but it depends on which goal you try reaching: Sivas or Constantinople?
If the Allies were to break out of Smyrna towards the Straits and seize Constantinople along, they blow up the lock to the Black sea and open an alternate venue for the Lend Lease to reach the Soviets, provided whatever ports the Soviets still control in the Caucasus can handle the volume or even if they can be improved to handle greater volumes; I think that's a safer route than running past Norway towards Arkhangelsk and Murmansk, and it allows convoys to USSR to go a more southern route that is within reach of Allied airfields and further away from uboat bases.
At the very least, that's way more tempting a target than Italy.

It'd make sense to liberate Constantinople so they could get the USSR and Iran to be more active in the ME while creating the basis for Greek control of Constantinople. Also I think if the Turks try to surrender it'd have to surrender unconditionally. It'd be punished heavily this time ittl.

 

[generalurist]

Country	Military Casualties in Near East fronts 1942
Greece	36,085
Britain	31,309
France	27,126
Poland	6,273
Yugoslavia	9,050
USA	3,264
Iran	8,562
Germany	76,010
Italy	106,667
Turkey	262,612
Bulgaria	67,341
Iraq	12,770
USSR	102,196

Country	Military Casualties in North Africa
Britain	29,558
France	32,000
USA	5,333
Germany	70,411
Italy	106,529

Greek civilian casualties by year	Deaths
1941	134,967
1942	155,231

Wow. Italy, Turkey, and Germany got the stuffing beaten out of them. That's some very lopsided casualties compared to Britain and France. Shame about the civilian deaths though.

 

[Lascaris]

Is Russia doing better than OTL? I'm getting that impression.

Overall things are about even against Germany and Finland. The Soviets had begun comparatively better off the war but had one more active front to deal with.

The WAllies getting to the Olympus passes and stopping there is a bit sad but I'd think ppl expected it.

Olympus is not breakable in the middle of winter...

I think only Smyrna and maybe Sicily are worth enough objectives. All other nearby fronts are along high mountain ranges with snow and possesses difficult logistics.
Sicily has the potential to drive Italy out of the war and then, without Italian troops, making easier to bypass Olympus passes.
Smyrna also has the potential of driving Turkey out of the war.

At the time Turkey's situation is not such that it would be knocked out of the war.

Why not prepare for a pincer movement against the forces singing down Smyrna
That way they will disable th Turkish army and free the field for offensives towards the southern and northern Turkish fronts

Smyrna to Antep is 1,115 km. Smyrna to Kars 1,698 km. Kars to Antep 830 km. Coordinating offensive operations between the three fronts at anything but the broadest sense of the word would be problematic.

Another solid update Lascaris.
I have to credit you for inspiring me to read Ionian Vision by Michael Llewellyn-Smith .
Its a fantastic read so far.

I think it's been 25 years or so since the first time I read it...

I think the only logical front at this point for those troops is Smyrna. Sicily would be too far away and the Middle East forces have already exhausted themselves and need to rest and re-fit regardless of getting another division or two.

The Syrian front should need 8-10 weeks before any new major offensive.

Smyrna on the other hand has a lot of troops but lacks striking power; I can't imagine the allies would have sent any tanks to a static defensive front. Hence an armoured division or two married to the infantry divisions already on scene would represent a powerful striking force to break the siege lines and would have the added bonus of adding yet another "active" front to Turkey at a time when they can ill-afford it.

Definitely no armour in Smyrna at this point. Overall the allies had 3 Greek armoured divisions in Thessaly, on the British 1942 TOE (ie 200-227 tanks per division), one US armoured division (pre re-organization hence ~390 tanks) and a British army tank Brigade with the British 6th Armoured Division on its way to the front, in landed in Greece in December.

I wonder how many units currently along the front in Southern Turkey and Middle East for example were recently transferred from Smyrna to replace losses. Especially those losses for Turkey are going to be harder and harder to replace if not in manpower than equipment. I had said earlier that I thought Turkey would be an army of essentially small arms and mortars by mid-1943 and nothing I have seen so far is changing my opinion on that.

The Germans are delivering artillery, of various degreed of quality and some tanks. In OTL the Germans delivered 232 leFH18 in 1943-45 to the Bulgarians and several hundred artillery pieces of other types. Why in creation they delivers 605 artillery pieces to the Bulgarians who were doing nothing and only a handful to Romania is frankly beyond me. The table below is the artillery deliveries to Bulgaria from my notes. A sizeable portion TTL goes to Turkey. Also Germany in OTL 1943 delivered PzIII and PzIV to Turkey and FW190 fighter aircraft. Possibly other arms too, I've seen some mention of artillery deliveries, possibly from captured French stocks, but that unlike the tanks and aircraft I could not corroborate it. @Gokbay is there anything to that end in Turkish sources?

Post that would increases to German production to cover some level of exports to Turkey in exchange from chrome be plausible? Yes in the sense of the Germans having the industrial capacity and machine tools to do so. Much more questionable in the sense of the Nazi war economy being a horrendous mess. Then Skoda, the prime arms exporter to Turkey is controlled by Goering and lean Hermann TTL is every bit of a self-aggrandizing empire builder as OTL only without the morphine addiction. This would be arguably both good and bad for Germany, but it might be good for Turkey?

Belgian 75mm	32​	1942​
Bofors 75mm	8​	1942​
Belgian 105mm	180​	1942?
A19 122mm	24​	1942​
Schneider 155mm	28​	1942​
mle1916 220mm	8​	1942​
sFH18 150mm	7​	1943?
GPF 155mm	18​	1943​
105mm gun	24​	1943​
220mm gun	12​	1943​
lefH18 105mm	232​	1943-44
K18 105mm	12​	1944​
Krupp 75mm	20​	1944​

I do wonder what 1943 could bring for Greece and Turkey. I feel like Turkey could be the first axis power aside from maybe Italy to try to bow out of the war offering an Ante Bellum peace with them keeping the East Side of Constantinople but than runs into problems of Greece outright refusing any peace that doesn't strengthen their security around Smyrna and European Constantinople. The old saying it only takes one to make war and everyone to make peace would seem to apply

Certainly Turkey if it could call it quits keeping her gains, or some of them would hardly mind doing so. How easy it would be to do so?

• Greece at a minimum wants Turkey out of its pre-war borders and Constantinople. This runs to two problems. First for the Turks Constantinople, Thrace and Ionia are part of the homeland they just liberated at heavy cost. Second, Turkey jumping out means the Germans and Bulgarians immediately rolling to the Bosporus... unless the Turks had moved large forces there in advance... which means they'd fight their former allies on behalf of the Greeks or try to keep it which the Greeks and Allies won't accept?
• The Soviets at a minimum would want a return at their pre war borders, if Stalin does not start talking about Sevres Armenia and Constantinople. So Turkey has to give up at a minimum Kars and Ardahan after liberating/conquering them (depending if you are Turk or Armenian) back in the summer?
• The British and French would not have territorial ambitions of their own against Turkey... well back in 1941 the British being hard pressed took a page from the previous war and unleashed the SOE in Turkish Kurdistan. The last Allied advances have brought several heavily Kurdish areas that were in some degree of insurrection under British control and the Kurds already have a provisional government. Should the British throw their ally, which is getting propaganda what good gallant freedom fighters they are under the bus or is Turkey to accept giving up parts of Kurdistan when in Turkish public consciousness territories to the south of it are unredeemed Turkish land?

Well, I think we shouldn't take for granted that there will be an allied offensive right now.
The author has mentioned that there will be a conference at Casablanca in two weeks. Therefore, I suppose nothing will happen until then. After all, before any major operation, the units (leaving Piraeus) have to recuperate and train, and that would take at least six weeks.
And strategically it makes more sense to attack Italy. I mean, if Turkey is struck first, it will take a while before it's completely knocked out, since it has enough strategic depth to make a slow retreat. And even if Turkey capitulates, the overall situation for the Axis is still sustainable: large allied forces will be tied down on occupation duties of a large country, and Axis will have a pretty defensible front at Propontis and Olympus.

There is an obvious way to break Olympus, of course...

Americans had already their reservations about Italy, and so far, only Sicily has value in the way it is needed to secure the shipping lanes across the Central Mediterranean sea; as if a soft underbelly, Churchill already has the Balkans front active.

Sicily needs to be taken sooner or later. Otherwise moving convoys from the Western to the Eastern Mediterranean, all the more important given the need to keep Greece fed and fighting is much costlier than it could be.

Turkey may have strategic depth, but it depends on which goal you try reaching: Sivas or Constantinople?
If the Allies were to break out of Smyrna towards the Straits and seize Constantinople along, they blow up the lock to the Black sea and open an alternate venue for the Lend Lease to reach the Soviets, provided whatever ports the Soviets still control in the Caucasus can handle the volume or even if they can be improved to handle greater volumes; I think that's a safer route than running past Norway towards Arkhangelsk and Murmansk, and it allows convoys to USSR to go a more southern route that is within reach of Allied airfields and further away from uboat bases.
At the very least, that's way more tempting a target than Italy.

It may be easier said than done, if anything Constantinople and Gallipoli are at the end of the European railway system, a German division getting aboard trains in France or Germany a week or so later would be able to reach it without undue hassle, nevermind proximity to Bulgaria, but you could well be hearing Churchill arguing about "doing Gallipoli right" I suspect along with a Greek breakout out of Smyrna.

Wow. Italy, Turkey, and Germany got the stuffing beaten out of them. That's some very lopsided casualties compared to Britain and France. Shame about the civilian deaths though.

They suffered two pretty heavy defeats in Thessaly and Antep, between them accounting for about a quarter million men, and a smaller one in Iraq, in addition to TTL's version of Tunisgrad, though the latter had been less costly than OTL. And then you have the meat-grinder of the Caucasus front, the Soviets have not taken over 100,000 casualties while being on the defensive with more artillery and tanks exactly for free...

 

[emperor joe]

Obvious way to break the Olympus line you say...is a naval invasion of Macedonia possible; i mean i don't think that even a combined land and sea attack is going to break the line
but if the allies manage to bring tanks in Macedonia then the axis are in a difficult position but i think that the next offensive is going to be in Epirus...if Ioannina falls and metsovo is taken as well the the road to Macedonia passes thru grevena and kozani..while not exactly flat they are more suited for tanks

 

[galileo-034]

It may be easier said than done, if anything Constantinople and Gallipoli are at the end of the European railway system, a German division getting aboard trains in France or Germany a week or so later would be able to reach it without undue hassle, nevermind proximity to Bulgaria, but you could well be hearing Churchill arguing about "doing Gallipoli right" I suspect along with a Greek breakout out of Smyrna.

Still easier as it goes for logistics than venturing deep into Anatolia I guess, and a lot more short term benefits.

Plus, it would cut the Turks off their Axis allies, force Germans and Bulgarians to divide their resources between Thrace and Macedonia (the Thracian plain is also great tank ground, I surmise, if the Allies were trying to outflank the Olympus line)

 

[DracoLazarus]

Obvious way to break the Olympus line you say...is a naval invasion of Macedonia possible; i mean i don't think that even a combined land and sea attack is going to break the line
but if the allies manage to bring tanks in Macedonia then the axis are in a difficult position but i think that the next offensive is going to be in Epirus...if Ioannina falls and metsovo is taken as well the the road to Macedonia passes thru grevena and kozani..while not exactly flat they are more suited for tanks

Seems to me that the Chalcis is rather absurdly defensible, though.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

I realized that in this timeline the allies are more numerous for the date, perhaps by 1944 we will be able to see all the countries of Latin America and Portugal joining the allies

 

[Aristomenes]

Seems to me that the Chalcis is rather absurdly defensible, though.

Surely you mean Chalkidiki peninsula! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalkidiki

 

[DracoLazarus]

Surely you mean Chalkidiki peninsula! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalkidiki

Yeah. Chalcidique. Full of mountains. Not the best place to make a naval landing, honestly.