Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

[Quinkana]

Simple enough, the English dominate the other European colonies in North America and implement policies that cause a rebellion of enough colonies (have said rebellion succeed).

Tbf just having the Americans hold New France would probably mean all the North American colonies would be American.

By right the POD should alter so much. Who knows maybe England and Scotland don’t unify? Maybe France wins in North America.

Far too much has to go a certain way

Exactly. I agree. I expect North America to be far far more linguistically and culturally diverse due to a potentially surviving New Sweden and New Netherlands

Considering what Ambassador Huntsman said about America it's not going to be different other than small differences like the Delaware River being called the Vasa River, which was what the Swedish called the river.

Alaska is enormous. From the mouth of the Yukon, to round the Alaska Peninsula to get to the Kenai Peninsula is over 2,000 km of sailing, roughly the distance between Tokyo/Kanto and the southern tip of Kamchatka. Sailing weather is also terrible and unpredictable.

Unlike other people in the thread (and generally on this site), I'm not convinced at all there'd be much Japanese activity in California. In addition to Alaska's size, there's the big thing of "how much resources" the natives have to offer. Furs are universal, but furs from northerly lands are more valued than southerly lands, hence why California's fur industry was exploited later. Other than minor goods like antler velvet, the largest would be jade, as jade was traded from the interior to coastal peoples who used it for art and tools. Most of this jade use was concentrated in coastal British Columbia, with jade dropping off north of southeastern Alaska and south of the Fraser River. The Japanese would recognise the jade and know selling it to China would mean a huge profit (indeed, this same jade OTL was later mined by Chinese immigrants who came to mine gold).

So if we look at the motives for sailing south in North America, they drop off once you hit Vancouver Island, which incidentally is among the northernmost places you can grow rice in the entire world. The Columbia River would probably be the southernmost point of interest, because it was the southernmost area decently linked to these trading networks, and also had a very substantial native trade. However, given Manila galleons were occasionally shipwrecked nearly that far north, I'd say further Japanese-Spanish hostility may lead to more exploration in that region on the basis that Spain uses it for shipping.

Everything else from timber cutting to gold mining would have to come later, since indigenous law strictly regulated logging (basically the Japanese would have to own the rights to log, lest they face hostility) and gold was unknown. A few local trees could become highly valued like red cedar, yellow cedar, or Port Orford cedar--all of these are exported in large amounts to Japan OTL because they're considered good substitutes for Japanese trees like Cryptomeria which have been overlogged.

Tbf I think at the very least we'd see a Japanese Fort Ross and colonisation of Alaska and Oregon as the ports there would encourage ports and ppl to start farming around there.

Beyond that I think it depends on the circumstances the Japanese find themselves in. If they can't go beyond the Phillippines I think they'll put their excess population in Cascadia, which means more of North America would be Japanese. If they're successful in SEA the Japanese won't colonise North America and would focus on otl Malaysia like Brunei and Malaya. Sulawesi and the rest of Borneo would be good places to colonise too.

Oh no sorry mate wasn’t accusing you of being bad faith. I was making a tad bit of a lighthearted joke but it might not have gone well.

Anyway my own point is that any state that does exist from English colonies is in no way guaranteed to resemble the USA or be able to manifest destiny across the continent due to tense competition. The Thirty Years War has greatly altered Europe ITTL due to its different outcome greatly weakening the Habsburgs and consequently empowering France and Sweden.

Tbf I'd like a different America but I think Ambassador Huntsman wants a recognisable US even though there'll be minor differences.

I think New Sweden will be more substantial than otl due to German immigration, and it'd be fun to see a lot more Swedish and French culture in American culture in general.

Other posters here might be talking about prospects for further Japanese settlement, but my main question/point is about exploration -- just because Japan feels satisfied with sea mammal hunting in the northern waters, that doesn't mean they wouldn't want to at least look to see if there isn't any "unclaimed" land worth "developing", provided what they already have gives them a point of "access".

I'm pretty sure a few explorers would've circumnavigated Cascadia long before we'd see settlements, alongside knowing that Mexico is to the south of Arasuka and opening trade routes in the region.

 

[Aluma]

I agree with Tertius that with a POD that early the United States could and in some cases should be butterflied away, however a recognisable but more culturally diverse America as result of the british colonists still triumphing but having to deal with the integration of huge load of dutch, french and swedish citizens(kinda like Quebec on steroids) and immigrantion from Asia due to an early contact with Japan IS fascinating, it would be very cool to see a pan-american culture that is even more cosmopolitan than the OTL one due to english culture simply not being that dominant with so many others pushing it back & forth

 

[Quinkana]

I agree with Tertius that with a POD that early the United States could and in some cases should be butterflied away, however a recognisable but more culturally diverse America as result of the british colonists still triumphing but having to deal with the integration of huge load of dutch, french and swedish citizens(kinda like Quebec on steroids) and immigrantion from Asia due to an early contact with Japan IS fascinating, it would be very cool to see a pan-american culture that is even more cosmopolitan than the OTL one due to english culture simply not being that dominant with so many others pushing it back & forth

Yeah I agree. A more multicultural US with Japanese, German, French, Swedish, Spanish and Mexican influences would be very interesting. I don't think we'll get a lot of Dutch settlers considering their otl settling habits even tho we may get some influential ppl be Dutch.

 

[The Forty-Eighth Rōnin]

Oh boy. Another civil war.

 

[ChucK Y]

Oh boy. Another civil war.

I don't think a civil war is inevitable, perhaps not even likely. Japan has been united for 70 years by this point, 18 years longer than OTL. During this time, it has made great strides in becoming a nation with a national consciousness. Roads and commerce have linked the nation and fostered economic growth. A national army and navy have been founded and fought a war against an external enemy. The expansion overseas has been largely a national effort. Relations with other nations has been a point of pride for the whole nation. Regional development has been subsidized by the nation. Internal wars have become rebellions against the central government rather than wars between independent feudal realms. Thus, the infighting and struggle for power may be much more political than military.

 

[Herohunter]

If they can't go beyond the Phillippines I think they'll put their excess population in Cascadia, which means more of North America would be Japanese. If they're successful in SEA the Japanese won't colonise North America and would focus on otl Malaysia like Brunei and Malaya. Sulawesi and the rest of Borneo would be good places to colonise too

What about oceania? Would be easy to establish settler colonies on small to medium sized tropical islands or the temperate lands of New Zealand and eastern Australia.

It would certainly be easier then expanding into a vast, diverse, malaria ridden south east Asia rife With local Islamic states and expanding European colonies.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Owing from the shorter War of Imperial Liberties however, the non-British immigration to North America is going to be positively torrential relative to OTL. It's more so for New Sweden since they have part of the excess population of the Germany that died IOTL immigrating there, too.

As if different trade volumes, scheduling, and political appointments weren't enough — those were all certainly several orders of magnitude heavier than deciding what is cute to wear for a particular day. So heavy — in fact — that even the most ardent of all the Marxists will find it hard-pressed to disagree that this substantially changes the conditions — material, especially — in North America.

From this, it — alongside New Netherlands — won't exactly become weaklings either. They're sure damn likely to preserve their own legal system, if not their independence from English/British rule.

The addition — and from the outset at that — of legal systems other than the common law will make for an alien British North America, if not outright complicating its genesis as a cohesive entity and that of its constitution.

Hell — we still haven't reached the point when the Seven Years' War happened. As far as I am concerned, this gives a pretty good chance for New England to be dominated by Francophones ITTL!

In terms of New Sweden, ITTL it is already more populous in 1650 than it is in 1650 IOTL because of additional German and Finnish settlers. New Netherlands is basically the same although a bigger Dutch Republic in Europe itself could affect its future prospects.

Considering what Ambassador Huntsman said about America it's not going to be different other than small differences like the Delaware River being called the Vasa River, which was what the Swedish called the river.

I don't recall saying that America is gonna be hardly different in that specific way unless I said something I didn't mean to or meant in a different way. North America is gonna definitely be different ITTL, I'm still figuring out how it'll be though. The thing is North America was shaped by conflicts between European powers often over matters outside of North America like the Deluge and at the minimum the Thirty Years War being drastically different ITTL will definitely affect things in so many ways. For instance, Upper Silesia and Lower Silesia are now independent Lutheran duchies ruled by different branches of the Silesian Piasts sandwiched between the Austrian Habsburgs, the Commonwealth, and Brandenburg-Prussia and that alone changes everything.

What about oceania? Would be easy to establish settler colonies on small to medium sized tropical islands or the temperate lands of New Zealand and eastern Australia.

It would certainly be easier then expanding into a vast, diverse, malaria ridden south east Asia rife With local Islamic states and expanding European colonies.

That's a possibility, albeit one very dependent on Japanese interests and priorities to its south and one unlikely to emerge as an option for a while.

 

[Quinkana]

In terms of New Sweden, ITTL it is already more populous in 1650 than it is in 1650 IOTL because of additional German and Finnish settlers. New Netherlands is basically the same although a bigger Dutch Republic in Europe itself could affect its future prospects.

Yeah New Sweden probably would be much bigger than otl, albeit sandwiched between the juggernauts that are the English colonies.

I don't recall saying that America is gonna be hardly different in that specific way unless I said something I didn't mean to or meant in a different way. North America is gonna definitely be different ITTL, I'm still figuring out how it'll be though. The thing is North America was shaped by conflicts between European powers often over matters outside of North America like the Deluge and at the minimum the Thirty Years War being drastically different ITTL will definitely affect things in so many ways. For instance, Upper Silesia and Lower Silesia are now independent Lutheran duchies ruled by different branches of the Silesian Piasts sandwiched between the Austrian Habsburgs, the Commonwealth, and Brandenburg-Prussia and that alone changes everything.

Tbf I might've misconstrued something when I read about which colonies were present and which weren't.

I do think the Mid Atlantic colonies don't have a good starting position as New England and Maryland will sandwich it, and France is more likely to lose than not against the British (Arcadie isn't big enough to really pose a threat against the British. I could see Quebec still being French for much longer than otl but that's about it).

That's a possibility, albeit one very dependent on Japanese interests and priorities to its south and one unlikely to emerge as an option for a while.

Yep, and that it's a lot more likely that the Japanese just want to settle their money making colonies considering the Chinese were settling them too, especially in pockets where it is viable.

I do think a Japan that settles in Cascadia in the 18th century and slowly moves southwards is the most probable route of colonisation, as with SEA colonisation.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Chapter 76: Kōbu Kanpaku​

After the death of daijo-daijin Oda Nobutsugu, the Japanese realm was thrown into political limbo. His son, Manchiyo, was far too young to take on the reins of power and govern Japan. Nevertheless, the Sangi-shu was summoned by Nobutsugu’s younger brother Konoe Toshishige who also happened to be the imperial regent and would meet for the first time since the late chancellor’s death on October 27th, 1653, and they alongside Toshishige would decide on the political future of Japan. At this time, the composition of the Sangi-shu was as follows:​

Ukita Nobuie (宇喜多信家): 1625-
Akechi Mitsutada (明智光忠): 1633-
Kanbe Tomoyoshi (神戸朝吉): 1633-
Oda Tomoaki (織田朝昭): 1633-
Takigawa Kazutoshi (滝川一利): 1635-
Nanbu Shigenao (南部重直): 1636-
Kitabatake Takanaga (北畠高長): 1637-
Maeda Noriyuki (前田則之): 1639-
Date Norimune (伊達則宗): 1641-
Kajuuji Tsunehiro (勧修寺経広): 1641-
Ikeda Yoshinori (池田由則): 1646-
Kudō Kanetada (工藤包忠): 1649-
Mizuno Katsutoshi (水野勝俊): 1650-
Shimazu Norihisa (島津則久): 1651-
Seikanji Tomofusa (清閑寺共房): 1652-
Nijou Norimichi (二条則道): 1653-
Chosokabe Tadachika (長宗我部忠親): 1653-​

It was agreed almost immediately that Manchiyo could not take over as daijo-daijin until he was deemed old enough to assume the helm of Azuchi. In the meantime, to prevent someone from outside the main Oda line from usurping the chancellorate, the position would remain vacant. Instead, a guardian would be assigned to the young Oda lord who would guide Manchiyo and preside over the affairs of the Sangi-shu, the Shinka-in, and the central bureaucracy. With Manchiyo’s mother, Imperial Princess Teruko (照子女王), having passed away in 1651, there would be intense deliberation among the Sangi-shu on who would take up the guardianship. Initially, the overwhelming choice among the body to be Manchiyo’s guardian was Kanbe Tomoyoshi, a great uncle of the child and regarded as the realm’s most experienced general. However, Tomoyoshi would decline, preferring to continue to guard the realm’s southern borders in Luson province. Because of this, the position of guardian would be contested in the Sangi-shu between the imperial regent and Manchiyo’s uncle Toshishige and Oda Tomoaki, another great uncle. In some ways, the two men represented different agendas and paths for the realm. Tomoaki, as a trailblazer of Japanese foreign policy particularly in regards to the French, would be a continuation of the trade expansionism and reformism his older brother Nobutomo based his reforms and achievements on. By contrast, Toshishige had grown up as the head of one of the Sekke, the noble families that had taken up the post of imperial regent for hundreds of years. Therefore, even though he was a blood member of the Oda clan in blood, Toshishige was closer to conservative and traditionalist elements of the Japanese ruling class as well as the long-standing Shinto-Buddhist institutions. While not an isolationist, he was more inward-looking and notably held anti-Christian sentiments.

These differences divided the various members of the Sangi-shu. This inevitably even created a personal rivalry between uncle and nephew. Ultimately, those in the council who emphasized unity would successfully push to pick a third person, Kudō Kanetada, as the guardian of Manchiyo. While a more distant relative of the young Oda lord, Kanetada had been Oda Nobutsugu’s second guardian in Gifu and therefore was felt to have the direct experience necessary for the job while also being a neutral figure in Azuchi politics. The divisions sowed by deliberations preceding this final selection, however, would remain and fester. While Kanetada had been a capable mentor and senior advisor in the past, he would prove unable to suppress the increasing factionalism in the capital of an increasingly complex and complicated Japanese realm. Toshishige in particular would be impossible to please and although somewhat relegated away from central affairs in his position as the imperial regent, his high position and prestige would enable him to strengthen his support base. The only person who was able to effectively assist Kanetada in maintaining some measure of stability in the central government was the 81 year old Ukita Nobuie, the most senior member of the Sangi-shu and the last daimyo lord from before the unification of Japan by Oda Nobunaga [1]. However, he would pass away on December 17th, 1655 at the age of 83, removing yet another pillar from under Azuchi.​

Portrait of Kudō Kanetada​

1656 would see the arrangement made in 1653 fall apart through events instigated by an off-color remark at a dinner party in Azuchi. On February 4th, Tomoaki hosted a private banquet which featured a noh (能) play and plenty of sake. Notable attendees included Tokugawa Noriyasu (徳川則康), Ikeda Yoshitomo (池田由朝), and Amago Nariyasu. Also present at the party was Tomoaki’s 16 year old son and heir, Tsuguaki (織田嗣昭). After the noh ended, an attendee praised Tsuguaki for being such a noble and strong samurai. In response, Ikeda Yoshitomo exclaimed, “Better than our current lord!” for which he was received with disapproving looks and comments on his inappropriateness. However, he continued and rambled about the need for strong leadership and exclaimed, “Indeed it is to those like Tsuguaki-sama that we must entrust our future to”. Noriyasu would subsequently pull a clearly drunk Yoshitomo aside and reprimand his actions, for which he later apologized for the next day to Tomoaki. Notably, however, Tomoaki made little effort to push back against his behavior, something which some observers noted. The next day, Amago Nariyasu reported what had transpired to Kanetada. The guardian immediately summoned many of the attendees, including Tomoaki and Yoshitomo. Initially, Kanetada planned nothing beyond putting Yoshitomo under house arrest for blasphemy. However, the imperial regent and his allies pounced upon this opportunity and lobbied for more severe punishments including towards Tomoaki and Tsuguaki for their failure to push back against Yoshitomo and even suggested that their silence and “inappropriate behavior” constituted acquiesence to treason towards the young Manchiyo. Ultimately, Ikeda Yoshitomo would be ordered to commit seppuku while Tomoaki would be ordered into confinement. These events increased the power of Toshishige’s faction in Azuchi politics as it effectively removed his main rival.

The following year, Kudō Kanetada passed away from illness under suspicious circumstances. Modern-day historians debate whether he was poisoned by Toshishige. In any case, with the guardianship of Manchiyo vacant, it seemed inevitable that the imperial regent would fill the position. However, Toshishige would go beyond even this victory. After the death of Kanetada, he used his position as imperial regent to summon the entire Shinka-in where in the name of the emperor, he not only took over as guardian but as Seii-tai-shogun, which had been vacant since the death of Nobutsugu in 1653. He would also force the emperor to retire, replacing him with one of his older brothers, Prince Tsuguhito (紹仁新王), who took on the regal name Go-Koumyou (後光明天皇). Toshishige would very quickly consolidate his newfound power and establish a new governing apparatus centered around his authority as imperial regent combined with his positions as guardian and grand shogun. He himself would henceforth be referred to as the Koubu Kanpaku (公武関白) for his unified position over both the imperial court and the samurai clans.​

Portrait of the Kobou Kanpaku, Konoe Toshishige​

This era saw relatively little change in policy in the realm and Japan would continue to progress in its expanding prosperity and trade, greater urbanization, and progressing economic development. The recently established Japanese presence in Karafuto would also slowly expand as fur traders and fishermen began to concentrate in Oodomari. However, Nobutsugu’s expansionist ideals were abandoned and no plans were made for the Philippines or the Amur region. Indeed, when the extended Treaty of Gapan finally expired in 1654, negotiations went nowhere and the Spanish-Japanese truce established at the Treaty of Gapan ended for good. With that went the 5% collection of the Manila-Acapulco galleon trade Azuchi had relied on to some extent, forcing Kanetada to look for other revenue sources. He found his solution in his hatred and suspicion of organized faith, particularly Christianity. Toshishige rescinded the privileges the Church of Yamato previously enjoyed in their places of worship in Oda lands and urban areas and to a lesser extent Nichiren and Pure Land Buddhist temples and Calvinist institutions in southern Kyushu. Under him, Kyoto and Azuchi would continue to patronize other Buddhist temples and Shinto shrines, displaying the most overt religious preference in government policy in nearly a century.

The unprecedented concentration of power under one man through nearly usurping methods was very controversial. Toshishige’s overriding ambition and arrogance did not gain him any favors and as a result, many daimyo, merchants, and even court nobles privately disapproved of the Koubu Kanpaku. This fact would not be lost on Oda Tomoaki, Driven emotionally by the loss of Tsuguaki to smallpox in 1657, he was secretly planning a comeback along with many of his longtime supporters. Fate had it that when he finally took a stand, Japan would face conflict from both the inside and from the outside.

[1]: Nobuie succeeded his father Ukita Naoie (宇喜多直家）at the age of 10 in 1582.​

 

[Dragonboy]

Damn. I really hope that the Odas can make it out of this well and that they alingside Japan can weather the storm

 

[Simeon]

my reaction to this information:

 

[souvikkundu25140017]

What was his intention regarding Buddhist missionaries and interconnections between Buddhist nations and recent focus towards india by laity?

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

(sigh) Tomoaki, kill this clown.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

my reaction to this information:

I see the kuge-like laugh lmao.

What was his intention regarding Buddhist missionaries and interconnections between Buddhist nations and recent focus towards india by laity?

He doesn't really have any, he's more anti-Christian if anything and is just very traditionalist.

 

[Quinkana]

Hmm this period of Japan is very interesting and I think it's a good period for Japan, because the lull in expansion would allow the country to further consolidate their overseas territories in Karafuto and Luzon. Entrenching in these territories will be very important for Japan considering their competition and I wonder who's going to attack Japan wldurinf their period of civil strife at the same time. My guess would be Russian exploration parties attempting to take over Karafuto or Spain attempting to take back Luzon.

 

[Arkenfolm]

That's quite a way to consolidate power. Even if he isn't really a Konoe, he's clearly the strongest of his clan since his (nominal) Fujiwara ancestors nearly 650 years prior. It would be quite a twist if the Oda Chancellorate ends up becoming the method through which the Fujiwara regents at last make a return to power.

Hmm this period of Japan is very interesting and I think it's a good period for Japan, because the lull in expansion would allow the country to further consolidate their overseas territories in Karafuto and Luzon. Entrenching in these territories will be very important for Japan considering their competition and I wonder who's going to attack Japan wldurinf their period of civil strife at the same time. My guess would be Russian exploration parties attempting to take over Karafuto or Spain attempting to take back Luzon.

In this era, the Russians just reached the Pacific several hundred km north of Karafuto, have no capability to build seagoing ships, and their main activity there is supplying fur trading in the region (which sometimes goes poorly and the Russians get attacked by indigenous groups). Europeans in general barely even know Karafuto exists. Spain is the actual danger.

 

[Quinkana]

That's quite a way to consolidate power. Even if he isn't really a Konoe, he's clearly the strongest of his clan since his (nominal) Fujiwara ancestors nearly 650 years prior. It would be quite a twist if the Oda Chancellorate ends up becoming the method through which the Fujiwara regents at last make a return to power.

Tbf I do hope the Odas eventually get back on top tho, they are the titular protagonists of this TL.

In this era, the Russians just reached the Pacific several hundred km north of Karafuto, have no capability to build seagoing ships, and their main activity there is supplying fur trading in the region (which sometimes goes poorly and the Russians get attacked by indigenous groups). Europeans in general barely even know Karafuto exists. Spain is the actual danger.

I was thinking bands of Cossacks landing on Karafuto and attempting to subjugate the Ainu, but yeah the Spanish is the more likely threat.

 

[YankeeCharlemagne]

Sounds like there's a very limited window now for the Japanese to colonize Amur. I really hope it goes through.

 

[goodol' turan]

my reaction to this information:

These guys kinda look like a Japanese version of Merry and Pippin from LOTR

 

[Arkenfolm]

I was thinking bands of Cossacks landing on Karafuto and attempting to subjugate the Ainu, but yeah the Spanish is the more likely threat.

I don't think Russia could even do that before the 19th century since it was considered the Qing sphere of influence. Even if they don't have to worry about the Qing TTL, the Russians have zilch capability in this era. Key quotes from Wikipedia:

In 1639 the Russians first reached the Pacific 105 kilometres (65 mi) southwest at the mouth of the Ulya River. In 1647 Semyon Shelkovnikov built winter quarters at Okhotsk. In 1649 a fort was built (Kosoy Ostrozhok). In 1653 Okhotsk was burned by the local Lamuts. Although the Russian pioneers were skilled builders of river boats, they lacked the knowledge and equipment to build seagoing vessels, which meant that Okhotsk remained a coastal settlement and not a port. In 1682 Okhotsk had eight dwellings and five other buildings. When the Russians entered the Kamchatka Peninsula they had to travel overland from the north.

The Russian threat would be 100% in the minds of the Japanese, even if the Russians might take a greater interest at an earlier date since it means the opportunity to directly trade with Japan without Chinese or indigenous intermediaries.

Sounds like there's a very limited window now for the Japanese to colonize Amur. I really hope it goes through.

I suspect the Koreans and Jurchens could repel the Russians from the area, but they might see value in keeping the Russians relatively close to keep the Japanese out.