Monty in Malaya

[Athelstane]

One other thing to keep in mind, if they try to campaign in Burma in the summer of 42 and they are not going to have much in the way of air support. Neither side did much flying in the summer and fall of 42.

Since this is yourbailiwick, Zheng...let us assume that Malaya is stretched into late spring, rather than mid-February. Let's assume - it seems fairly safe to assume - that the IJN still acts to dispose of ABDACOM naval forces in the Java Sea with reasonable dispatch, regardless of whether the amphibious attack on Java is delayed. After all, Yamamoto will want to minimize the prospects for reinforcement of Singapore by sea, if nothing else, right?

Is the Darwin Raid still on the table? What does Yamamoto most likely do with the Kido Butai if Operation C (the Indian Ocean Raid) is off the table? Does it get used merely for naval support for Yamashita? Sent back to Japan for refit? Something else?

 

[Zheng He]

Since this is yourbailiwick, Zheng...let us assume that Malaya is stretched into late spring, rather than mid-February. Let's assume - it seems fairly safe to assume - that the IJN still acts to dispose of ABDACOM naval forces in the Java Sea with reasonable dispatch, regardless of whether the amphibious attack on Java is delayed. After all, Yamamoto will want to minimize the prospects for reinforcement of Singapore by sea, if nothing else, right?

Is the Darwin Raid still on the table? What does Yamamoto most likely do with the Kido Butai if Operation C (the Indian Ocean Raid) is off the table? Does it get used merely for naval support for Yamashita? Sent back to Japan for refit? Something else?

I'll give you the ultimate non-answer - IT ALL DEPENDS.

Seriously though, it really does. The Darwin raid will still go off at some point, maybe not the same dates, because the Allies are running convoys to the DEI from Darwin. In fact, in a TL where the Allies are doing better, Darwin may even get more tender loving care from the Japanese.

I have no doubt the KB will get involved heavily. I agree that OP C as we know will not happen but I assume in this TL that ABDA naval forces are making some sort of nuisance of themselves and the KB will be called upon at some point to help deal with them, especially if Force Z is still active in some way shape or form.

The other two big questions are when and where does the Eastern Fleet start assembling? Probably not on the exact same timeline as OTL but there will likely be some sort of RN naval buildup in the Indian Ocean and if they are operating further forward to support Allied operations in Malaya and/or the DEI I imagine Nagumo will try to bring about an engagement at some point. The other question is what happens when the US Pacific Fleet's activities reach a sufficient level of annoying (Tokyo Raid or something else) that the Japanese decide they have to be dealt with. What happens when the KB and other major units are pulled out of South East Asia to go after the Americans when there is still unfinished business down there?

Essentially you are now in a totally alternate TL and things are going to be very different.

 

[Magniac]

If Monty is ordered out he's OK, the fault lies in London.
If he evacuates to Summatra or Java with whatever forces he can save and keeps fighting he'll probably keep his reputation.
If he just abandons his men and runs using Bennett's BS "I must pass on what I learned" excuse he'll find a loaded revolver and a glass of whisky in his quarters and be expected to spare the Army the shame of his courts martial.

I agree in principle with your first and last sentences, but I don't think him retreating into NEI territory gives him any kind of third option; it merely delays either surrender, a sanctioned flight to safety, or disgrace.

 

[Draconis]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/keynes-cruisers.388788/

This link takes you to Keynes Cruisers volume 1. In it among many other things there is an interesting and detailed ATL account of Malaya being successfully defended and the effects this has in Burma and other places. However this ATL brings in not only a different commander of the British and Commonwealth forces in Malaya but also a little bit better supplies and preparations. So not strictly in accordance with the OP but still quite interesting.

 

[fester]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/keynes-cruisers.388788/

This link takes you to Keynes Cruisers volume 1. In it among many other things there is an interesting and detailed ATL account of Malaya being successfully defended and the effects this has in Burma and other places. However this ATL brings in not only a different commander of the British and Commonwealth forces in Malaya but also a little bit better supplies and preparations. So not strictly in accordance with the OP but still quite interesting.

I figured that my universe, the Malayan Command is significantly better off than the OTL Malayan command both in terms of material, morale and leadership. Veteran units that had significant combat experience were already in Malaya and the fact that the Med was not an arterial bleed of Royal Navy losses and a suck of supply and manpower for the Western Desert Force leads to a massive divergence between my scenario and the OP.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

What if General Gerald Templer is sent with Monty to Malaya?

Based off his otl abilities to organize the civilians and police into coordinating with the military as Governor General during the communist insurgency in the 50s, he might make a good second in command for Monty.

 

[yulzari]

What if General Gerald Templer is sent with Monty to Malaya?

Based off his otl abilities to organize the civilians and police into coordinating with the military as Governor General during the communist insurgency in the 50s, he might make a good second in command for Monty.

and Templer was a student under Montgomery and a brigade commander under him in V Corps. The two got on well. When Montgomery was moved up to command XII Corps he recommended Templer for advancement before leaving.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Also the Chinese had 9 Divisions (of the 5th,6th and 66th Corps) in Burma defending the 'Burma Road' and while it is generally the done thing to treat a National Republic Army (NRA) unit a realistically 1 call sign weaker in real terms - that is still in effect at least 9 Brigades (and some of the units were among the best the NRA had so probably stronger than that) along with half a years additional resupply from Rangoon which OTL did not happen on account of a rather rude change of ownership.

This extra resupply may very well cause the IJA issues in Main land China resulting in fewer available units for the adventures elsewhere!

Are you talking about the Chinese Expeditionary Force?
As I recall they were decimated during the 1942 retreat due to disease and a lack of medical care.
It was only after the survivors were reformed, reequipped with US gear and then retrained that the Chinese Expeditionary Force actually became a serious threat to Japanese forces.
Sure they had General Sun and the troop quality was good (by post Shanghai NRA standards) but they were let down by several problems out of their control.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Are you talking about the Chinese Expeditionary Force?
As I recall they were decimated during the 1942 retreat due to disease and a lack of medical care.
It was only after the survivors were reformed, reequipped with US gear and then retrained that the Chinese Expeditionary Force actually became a serious threat to Japanese forces.
Sure they had General Sun and the troop quality was good (by post Shanghai NRA standards) but they were let down by several problems out of their control.

Some of the Divisions were formally the German trained ones - cannot recall which ones so those at least would have been worth the rations so to speak

The 200th Division -a 9000 strong unit so relatively weak by the standards of the day fought well at the Battle of Toungoo against elements of 2 IJA Divisions

If Rangoon does not fall then the Japanese cannot support a campaign with the best parts of 4 Fully leaded Infantry Division and a Tank Brigade to close the Yunnan - Burma road with Logistics from Moulmein and the Thai boarder.