Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

[Alberto Knox]

Not that an election is a disappointment, of course. July. Not much chance of rain, so Labour won't be slaughtered for that reason at least. I'm probably still too heady to realise, but what's the 'obvious difference' in the debates this time? Two parties speaking from a position of government (but not really, as it's C+F, not coalition)?

I'm actually wondering how many people will see it coming. Someone is bound to highlight it. Afterwards, of course, it'll seem so totally obvious.

I think I know...

A couple of snippets from The Fourth Lectern

From A Highly Unusual Election, by Greg Callus

The ruling that the debates would consist of “the leaders of parties standing in a majority of seats, who already have representation in the House of Commons” was widely agreed to have been phrased very carefully to ensure the exclusion of the BNP, despite the official argument that it restricted the floor to only those Party Leaders with a real (however miniscule) chance of winning a majority at the General Election. The SNP and Plaid Cymru were loudly annoyed and the BNP were up in arms about it.

CCHQ, 0500 - 0615
Andy Coulson

...

I ignored us failing to take Brentford & Isleworth because the result from Brighton Pavilion was in. It was official – Caroline Lucas had taken it for the Greens, with a majority of over two thousand.

“Christ”, said a staffer near the front. “They’ll need five lecterns next time!”.

There was a moment of absolute silence and then we all cracked up. You know what it’s like when you’ve been tense for hours, you’re exhausted and excited simultaneously and then someone says something that just sets you off? And it sparks everyone? Well, this was that for us. Howls of laughter, way beyond what the crack merited. It took us a couple of minutes to settle down and even then we could be set giggling again by anyone saying “FIVE lecterns?”. By the end of it, we had postulated an SNP alliance with the English Democrats so they could claim they were standing in more than half of UK seats, Griffin winning in Barking and even Dr Taylor getting a movement to stand in another three hundred and twenty four seats. The Eight Lecterns.

So, assuming they can field the candidates and I believe they can, the current rules would require a fifth lectern for Caroline Lucas.

Am I right?

Edit: Damn it, beaten to the punch due to the need to show my working.

 

[RPW@Cy]

but what's the 'obvious difference' in the debates this time?

The first thought that occurred to me was that this isn't the first time any more - people will be a lot clearer about strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, what buttons to press, and so on.

The second thought is that OTL Vicki Pryce was speaking to the Mail in May 2011 (googling - the story was first published on the 8th) - I don't think this has appeared in the timeline yet, is Vicki/the Mail holding off until the election campaign is under way so as to release it when it can cause the maximum possible damage? The morning of the first debate offers opportunities...

 

[Meadow]

I think I know...

A couple of snippets from The Fourth Lectern





So, assuming they can field the candidates and I believe they can, the current rules would require a fifth lectern for Caroline Lucas.

Am I right?

Edit: Damn it, beaten to the punch due the need to show my working.

While it wouldn't be impossible to change things, the Greens can't stand in Scotland because they're the Green Party of England and Wales. This means the 'stand everywhere' rule would keep Lucas out. But I suspect a hasty federalisation of the Green Parties might be hammered out in Brighton over the weekend after the election is called...

 

[Blackadder mk 2]

Not sure I can believe UKIP overtaking the Lib Dems in seats even here. Unless, as I now notice reading your post again, your sentence changes in meaning halfway through.

I meant that in terms of the seats in the Commons, the Tories come first, and in terms of the popular vote across the country, UKIP edges out the LibDems probably due to Vicki deciding that its time for blood.

I'd say scores similar to the local elections a while back but the Greens are probably going to be doing a lot better.

27/22/15/21/10/5 are my predictions for the election ITTL.

 

[iainbhx]

The second thought is that OTL Vicki Pryce was speaking to the Mail in May 2011 (googling - the story was first published on the 8th) - I don't think this has appeared in the timeline yet, is Vicki/the Mail holding off until the election campaign is under way so as to release it when it can cause the maximum possible damage? The morning of the first debate offers opportunities...

That's my thinking on this matter. Vicki and the Mail will hit at a suitable point.

 

[AndyC]

It was never going to last all week as a cliffhanger - especially as I gave it away explicitly in the Fourth Lectern



In order:

For a Prince of Darkness and miracle-maker, Mandy doesn't seem good at remembering the Greens.

n.


As for the obvious difference, there's now the Greens in Parliament. If they can get enough candidates together, they would have to be included as well, leading to a Fifth Lectern during the debates.

I think I know...

A couple of snippets from The Fourth Lectern





So, assuming they can field the candidates and I believe they can, the current rules would require a fifth lectern for Caroline Lucas.

Am I right?

Edit: Damn it, beaten to the punch due to the need to show my working.

Yup. Labour were too focussed on what had just happened and the Lib Dems and UKIP were so eager to ensure they were going to get the same visibility ... it's possible that the Tories saw it (given their delay) and certainly Osborne will claim he foresaw it in an attempt to salvage some of his reputation after accidentally getting Parliament dissolved (which is always an "oops" moment if you didn't mean it to happen ...)

While it wouldn't be impossible to change things, the Greens can't stand in Scotland because they're the Green Party of England and Wales. This means the 'stand everywhere' rule would keep Lucas out. But I suspect a hasty federalisation of the Green Parties might be hammered out in Brighton over the weekend after the election is called...

Nope - the rules are meant to delineate Party Leaders with a chance of becoming Prime Minister. If your Party are not standing in enough seats to secure a majority if you win every one of them, you cannot become PM (ruling out the Northern Irish parties, SNP, Plaid and IKHH). The "representation in the Commons" rule was to ostensibly rule out the minor Parties who did stand nationwide (UKIP, Greens, BNP).

Given the rules, as long as the Greens have 326+ candidates, they're in.

 

[LancyIain]

While it wouldn't be impossible to change things, the Greens can't stand in Scotland because they're the Green Party of England and Wales. This means the 'stand everywhere' rule would keep Lucas out. But I suspect a hasty federalisation of the Green Parties might be hammered out in Brighton over the weekend after the election is called...

I believe that the rule wasn't stand in all three of England, Scotland and Wales. It was field enough candidates to have a mathematical chance of a majority. Also, as all four parties have agreed to the same rules, if the Greens can put together enough candidates they're in the debate. If they're somehow gerrymandered out then that would in and of itself generate publicity and support for them. You're probably right though that the Green parties of all four of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably agree to a joint election campaign.

I very much think we're in for a five-way FPTP shoot-out.

 

[AndyC]

I believe that the rule wasn't stand in all three of England, Scotland and Wales. It was field enough candidates to have a mathematical chance of a majority. Also, as all four parties have agreed to the same rules, if the Greens can put together enough candidates they're in the debate. If they're somehow gerrymandered out then that would in and of itself generate publicity and support for them. You're probably right though that the Green parties of all four of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably agree to a joint election campaign.

I very much think we're in for a five-way FPTP shoot-out.

Welcome to The Fifth Lectern.
I had so much fun with one extra lectern last time, how could I resist adding another?

As Iain put it last time: "Welcome to 'When Bad Voting Systems Attack' "
FPTP with five parties in England, and six in Scotland and Wales. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[OwenM]

I think if this carries on we may end up with an Indian-style party system.
And what are the latest polls?

 

[Meadow]

Will Horse wrap up now and a new TL called The Fifth Lectern begin? My inner child would be happy.

 

[Geordie]

Wow. Just wow.

When Brown decided "sod 'em", part of me expected to see The Prince of Darkness become the King of Darkness (even if it has been done elsewhere), and I couldn't wait to see the horror on Osborne's face...

The Fifth Lecturn really will cause chaos. The Greens will now be the insurgent force, with UKIP being established. The Greens are likely to do well in the background of cuts too - what with them being somewhat to the left of such things economically speaking. Also, as others have mentioned, Huhne is sitting on a time bomb, the fuse of which is getting dangerously close to the actual explosives...

If UKIP can make a decent showing in Scotland and Wales, then the ensuing Six Way war will be a bloody nightmare. Even for you just to work out the results. I hope your spreadsheet programme is prepared to crunch some hellish numbers.

 

[RPW@Cy]

Welcome to The Fifth Lectern.
I had so much fun with one extra lectern last time, how could I resist adding another?

As Iain put it last time: "Welcome to 'When Bad Voting Systems Attack' "
FPTP with five parties in England, and six in Scotland and Wales. What could possibly go wrong?

The Greens only put up 310 candidates in May 2010. Given that they lost their deposits in all but a handful, can they even afford to put up 326 candidates a year later even if they can find the warm bodies?

 

[The Red]

The Greens only put up 310 candidates in May 2010. Given that they lost their deposits in all but a handful, can they even afford to put up 326 candidates a year later even if they can find the warm bodies?

If they did federalise that would put them up to 334 with the addition of the Scottish and Northern Irish Greens. Assuming they have at least the 163 k needed for deposits it's worth it, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

 

[RPW@Cy]

Wow. Just wow.

When Brown decided "sod 'em", part of me expected to see The Prince of Darkness become the King of Darkness (even if it has been done elsewhere), and I couldn't wait to see the horror on Osborne's face...

Speaking personally, but if I were to have one tiny criticism with this otherwise excellent TL it would be that the author is somewhat over impressed with Mandelson's evil charisma (well that and the fact that the Mandelson/Osborne scenes have a certain... homoerotic element to them). IMHO Mandelson's evil superpowers were always rather overstated (not least by the man himself), especially when his own career was the topic under discussion.

 

[LancyIain]

The Greens only put up 310 candidates in May 2010. Given that they lost their deposits in all but a handful, can they even afford to put up 326 candidates a year later even if they can find the warm bodies?

Isn't that just the Green Party of England and Wales rather than Green parties throughout the UK? As Meadow pointed out, there are different Green parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland to the one in England and Wales. The Northern Irish Greens fielded 4 candidates and the Scottish Greens 20. If they agree to a joint campaign (which I think they would) that would take them over the limit even if the England and Wales Greens can't quite do it on their own.

edit: And I see that The Red beat me to pointing this out.

 

[Meadow]

Speaking personally, but if I were to have one tiny criticism with this otherwise excellent TL it would be that the author is somewhat over impressed with Mandelson's evil charisma (well that and the fact that the Mandelson/Osborne scenes have a certain... homoerotic element to them). IMHO Mandelson's evil superpowers were always rather overstated (not least by the man himself), especially when his own career was the topic under discussion.

I dunno. He didn't really get anything wrong when he returned in 2009. His own career wasn't in the spotlight so maybe that's why he flourished. And, of course, Andy did just give us two chapter where he was outsmarted and unable to turn the situation to his advantage - that honour was left to Gordon Brown(!).

 

[RPW@Cy]

If they did federalise that would put them up to 334 with the addition of the Scottish and Northern Irish Greens. Assuming they have at least the 163 k needed for deposits it's worth it, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Gotcha on the numbers, I don't think they'd even need to federalise - an agreement to take the GPEW whip at Westminster would probably be enough, though I can see some ructions in the Scottish party at least about allowing Lucas to hog all the debates. As for the cash -

"According to accounts filed with the Electoral Commission, for the year ending 31 December 2010 the party had an income of £770,495 with expenditure of £889,867." (wikipedia)

Ouch. Raising £163K in probably only a couple of weeks will be a tall order.

 

[AlfieJ]

27/22/15/21/10/5 are my predictions for the election ITTL.

With those figures I get:

Conservative: 293
Labour: 263
Lib Dem: 58
UKIP: 4
Green: 2

Loving this TL, cant wait for election night. I'm praying for Labour to hang on again just for the shit storm which would head Cameron's way after two election defeats.

 

[The Red]

Ouch. Raising £163K in probably only a couple of weeks will be a tall order.

It's a tricky one, but if there ever was a time to bankrupt the party...

Also, as long as Caroline turns up on the night, they can expect to keep a great deal more of those deposits than they usually do.

 

[iainbhx]

With those figures I get:

Conservative: 293
Labour: 263
Lib Dem: 58
UKIP: 4
Green: 2

Loving this TL, cant wait for election night. I'm praying for Labour to hang on again just for the shit storm which would head Cameron's way after two election defeats.

Ah, but you have to go off the results from last time, which are only in the possession of the master of the spreadsheets.