Nice update. I'm guessing that Labour are going to manage to pull through by just one or two votes though, because of the author's known approval of the AV system! 
Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
AndyC
Donor
Nice update. I'm guessing that Labour are going to manage to pull through by just one or two votes though, because of the author's known approval of the AV system!
So - you and Meadow have both had a drink with me, and can each confidently predict that:
- Labour will lose the vote (in order to get a certain someone into Number 10; this ambush strategy certainly can't work if tried a second time so it would have to be now)
- Labour will win the vote (to get AV passed).
So - you and Meadow have both had a drink with me, and can each confidently predict that:
- Labour will lose the vote (in order to get a certain someone into Number 10; this ambush strategy certainly can't work if tried a second time so it would have to be now)
- Labour will win the vote (to get AV passed).
This just shows you have a split personality when you're drunk.
Well, that and you're a devious bugger who has left room for things to go whichever way you want them to.
This just shows you have a split personality when you're drunk.
Now I know why BG was on the OJ all night - to watch us closely and with full sobriety when alcohol loosened our lips...
Did Alan Johnson resign ITTL? If so, who's at the Home Office?
On the vote, I reckon Labour will edge it - mostly because anything else pretty much ends the story, (given his talk with Mandy, will Brown really not go for an election?) or at least reverses it to OTL. OTOH, there was a scene a couple of pages ago where Congdon was practically begging for an election ("We're as credible as ever - we could break in!"), so maybe it's another chapter in the inexorable rise of UKIP - then again, Osbourne doesn't think so.
On the vote, I reckon Labour will edge it - mostly because anything else pretty much ends the story, (given his talk with Mandy, will Brown really not go for an election?) or at least reverses it to OTL. OTOH, there was a scene a couple of pages ago where Congdon was practically begging for an election ("We're as credible as ever - we could break in!"), so maybe it's another chapter in the inexorable rise of UKIP - then again, Osbourne doesn't think so.
After some thought, I have a feeling that the vote might well end up tied meaning the Speaker would have the casting vote. I'm not entirely sure how he would vote though; I know that the Speaker will vote to prevent legislation from being enacted and to prevent the fall of a Government. Here though voting Aye could lead to a major change in how Parliament is elected while voting Nay could bring down the Government and cause new elections. In such a situation, how does the Speaker vote? It would be very much in keeping with this timeline for the rare tie-breaking vote to take place.
Oh the intrigue! I love this kind of parliamentary manoeuvring and it's all phenomenally well-written. Great job! (personally hoping Labour just gets the numbers this time).
I would think maintaining the tradition of preserving the government would trump even preventing AV. His is not to reason why, after all. His position would become almost untenable if he made a personal decision on how to vote in the Commons, as not doing so is rather the point of him.
Is Bercow still speaker in this one? Or was it Iain's 2010TL that saw Young take the chair?
AndyC
Donor
Bercow's still Squeaker here.
And the question on how he should vote in the event of a tie is, indeed, not a trivial one. As said, he must vote in favour of the status quo - if there is not a majority for change, he should not create it. Parliamentary scholars can easily create convincing arguments for both answers.
AndyC
Donor
The Commons Chamber
Gordon Brown’s heart was hammering. The division was effectively completed and the tellers were assembling their figures. Given the importance of the vote and the knife-edge closeness, he really couldn’t complain about them taking their time to ensure it was correct. They didn’t want another cock-up like that time – hell, how long ago was it? That was it - just before that Maastricht confidence vote under Major, when the tellers had miscounted and announced a tie when the Government had actually won by a single vote. In that case, the Speaker had cast her vote with the Government (for “no change”) anyway, so it hadn’t been crucial. This time, it could be. He had no idea how Bercow would vote in the case of a tie. If there was no majority for AV, he couldn’t vote to create one. But if there was no majority for confidence in the Government … hell. Would he take the stance that he couldn’t create such a majority?
In less dramatic times, it could be an interesting thought experiment. Did the Speaker’s tendency on a tie in a confidence vote depend on who submitted it? If it was a vote of no-confidence, could he take the stance that he couldn’t create a majority of no-confidence where none existed, but if it was a vote of confidence, he couldn’t create a majority of confidence? And in a wider sense, could the Speaker – the neutral and impartial guardian of the standards of the Commons – cast a vote that would bring down the Government? But if he didn’t, he’d be creating a majority for a potential fundamental change to the electoral system of the Commons where none existed. Assuming a tie, of course. He glanced up. Maybe Bercow would be able to give a hint? No – the Speaker just looked faintly queasy. Of course. He’d be running through the same chain of thought. Odds were that Bercow had no idea what he’d have to do and was praying for a majority on one side or the other.
Angrily, he forced his thoughts back on track. All he could do now was work out what he’d do in either case. If he’d won, then those Tory bastards would have lost for good. He’d make absolutely damned sure that the Bill got through the Lords successfully in record time. If he lost – would they have really beaten him? Forced him to dissolve Parliament and give up?
Damn it – Osborne and Cameron were insisting on hanging around chatting just across from him. Looking across and grinning at him. Glancing between Ed Balls and David Milliband every few seconds. They were doing it to fluster him, of course. They knew they had to be standing close in order for him to make them out clearly. Bastards.
Osborne was actually almost as nervous as Brown, but doing a better job at putting on an unworried face. He’d stacked the deck ruthlessly to try to pull this off and if it didn’t work, then Mandelson would be utterly unmerciful in doing everything possible to crush him. All of the possible tricks and ploys that even the so-called Prince of Darkness would normally rule as offside would come into play. He wrenched his thoughts away. He had to focus on the here and now. Do whatever he could to prod Brown in the right direction. He and Cameron had deliberately placed themselves squarely in Brown’s field of view – he had to be stampeded into desperation.
To cover his nervousness, Osborne whispered to Cameron, nonchalantly. “So – who do you reckon he’ll tap? Balls or Milliband? I’ve got fifty on Balls – Brown doesn’t abandon his trusted lieutenants lightly”
Cameron grinned back. “No – it’ll be young David. Even Brown knows that Balls would rip the Party apart. I’ll take that fifty. Heads up – here come the tellers”
Brown took a deep breath. Here was the moment of truth. He watched closely. Which side of the Speaker were the Tory tellers standing?
Oh God. Oh God, no. The Tories were on the Speaker’s left. That’s where the majority stood. On his left. Except – what was the procedure for a tie? Maybe … no, he was grasping at straws.
Bowing to the Speaker, the tellers advanced and the teller standing closest to the Opposition despatch box recited the numbers: “Ayes: two hundred and fifty. Noes: two hundred and fifty-two”
The rest of the words were lost. There was a roaring in his ears, drowning out everything else. Across the Chamber, Cameron and Osborne looked on, slightly disconcerted, as Brown hunched forward, head shaking slowly back and forth, like a bewildered bear. “You don’t think we’ve just killed him, do you?” whispered Osborne, irreverently.
Brown gasped for air. He needed to think! He needed time, damn it! The Clerk had taken the card from the tellers and handed it to the Speaker, who had reread the numbers. “So the Noes have it!” announced Bercow. It was official.
Brown grabbed at a thought. That division he’d been thinking about earlier – on Maastricht. The alternative to dissolution had come up in the debate – God knows which antique had come up with it. Resignation and handing over. And – yes. He didn’t have to hand over to bloody Cameron. Or did he?
No – it had been established in that debate that the PM could hand over to the Chancellor, for example. He could hand over to Balls! Or Milliband! That’d screw the bastard Tories! But which one?
He’d lurched to his feet automatically. He had to make answer to Bercow. The Speaker had just said something along the lines of “… and that this House does not have confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”. He knew his role. He had to make answer, even if there was no answer to make. He had to choose. Right now. Balls? His protégé for so long? But no – like he’d told Mandelson, Balls would never command the Parliamentary Party. It had to be Milliband. But Mandelson had said that Milliband would be a huge error. He was painfully aware that the eyes of the entire House – and doubtless the wider public after the news got out and the camera feeds were piped to the news channels – were on him and he was just standing there, mute.
Balls or Milliband? He had to choose, and choose right now. Oh, shit. Cameron and Osborne. They knew. They knew. That’s why they’d been glancing between Balls and Milliband earlier – they couldn’t help but gloat in advance. They knew either would be a serious error. He had to find another option. He had to.
Then, he knew what to do. His heart rate slowed. His thoughts cleared. For the first time in so, so long, he felt relaxed. He knew what to do. For possibly the first time since he’d taken this damned job, the words came out easily. They fell into the silence, before the uproar started. He had the intense satisfaction of seeing Osborne’s face with a look of complete disbelief painted on it.
Three hours later, in 10 Downing Street.
Mandelson was looking drawn. He clutched his drink like a drowning man clinging to a lifebelt. “Gordon – it’s my fault. I only realised too late. I’m sorry”.
Brown shook his head. “Peter – you pulled off miracles time and time again. Don’t beat yourself up because this last time the miracle was just not quite enough. One more minute and you’d have herded enough of the rebels into the Chamber. You're the only one who saw through it at all, even if it was just too late. What’s done is done”
Mandelson shrugged. “Maybe”. He took a long drink. “But …”
Brown’s lips quirked into a smile. “But … ?”
“But why? Why did you choose to do what you did? You must have known that there were alternatives”
Brown’s smile broadened. “I did. And so did they. They wanted me to choose between Ed and David, and you and I both know that either would be the wrong choice right now. And so do the Tories. So … someone not a million miles from me right now told me some time ago: if you don’t know what to do but you know what the other side want, choose the other option. So I did. And I have no idea what’s going to happen next - but neither do the Tories”
They looked over at the television in the corner of the office. It was a beautiful flatscreen system, hanging delicately from the ceiling in the corner. On it, BBC News 24 were replaying the moment for what had to be the tenth time.
Brown had been standing at the Government Dispatch Box. “Mr Speaker, the House has spoken and its will is absolute under our system, no matter how deceitful has been the way in which it has been brought about. I have to accept that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government and I cannot continue in this way. Mr Speaker, the composition of this House is such that I cannot, in good conscience, recommend to her Majesty that any Member in this House could command a reliable majority. I will therefore go this evening to the Palace and request an audience with Her Majesty. I will request a dissolution of Parliament in the hope that a new election will resolve this issue.”
Mandelson reached out and muted the sound. “It’s a hell of a gamble, Gordon. You have to know that. We’re probably going to lose”
“Yeah. But the Tories won’t necessarily win, either. And we can get back from here. If I’d taken the choice they wanted me to take, we could have ended up at the next election – our fourth in Government – as a Party divided, with a reputation of staleness and infighting. How much support did Major lose at the polls between 92 and 97? More than ten percent, wasn’t it? Where would we be if we were ten percent lower down? The white collar workers could peel off to UKIP. The intelligentsia to the Lib Dems. The floaters to the Tories. The tribal core could sit on their hands. If we ended up third in seats, it’d be over. So, yes. I rolled the dice. I gambled. The one thing that they’d never foresee me doing. And Christ, Peter. It felt good. It felt bloody good!”
There was a long silence, before Mandelson chuckled. “Did you see Osborne’s face? I thought he was going to faint on the spot! Gordon – you did the right thing. We’re screwed, of course, but that’s all. It was either screwed or dead. The Tories are screwed as well. The Lib Dems are broke, so they're screwed, and UKIP are going to have to deal with more public scrutiny than ever before, so they’re screwed as well – they just don’t know it yet. I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen next, either. But neither will anyone else”
He paused. “Any idea about the damned election debates? They media are going to want them again, aren’t they?”
Brown hesitated. “Well, on the plus side, I’m not going to do much worse than last time. On the minus side, it really did cut into the campaigning – but that might actually be better for us. We can’t afford much of a campaign. Only the Tories can. But could the Tories squash the debates?”
Mandelson considered. “I don’t think so. Before we ever did them, either of us could raise up some artificial issues and fail to agree, so the status quo would reign: no debates. Now, the cat is out of the bag. The status quo is that there will be debates under the established principles, unless all of us agree to a change or hiatus”
“Huh. Congdon’s not likely to do that. Neither’s Huhne. But if either Cameron or I withdraw, would they really put on a debate with an empty chair? What if we insist on only Cameron and me, or only Cameron, Huhne and me?”
Mandelson shook his head. “What’s the better story? ‘Back to the Old Guard’, or ‘Labour running scared’? Anyway, I think Cameron’s more scared of Congdon than we are. I’ll get a message to the Beeb that we’re content with the debates to be run again on the same format as last time. I’m pretty sure they damaged Cameron more than us last time, anyway”
From “On the Cusp”
The Friday ambush on the 20th of May ended up with an outcome that not even the plotters who brought it off had foreseen. The second General Election in just over a year would occur in July, with the UKIP question not even close to being settled. The Government confirmed that they would be content for the Prime Ministerial debates to occur again under the same rules as before. The Liberal Democrat and UKIP leadership swiftly confirmed their participation before a possibly more grudging acceptance by the Conservative Party. It is likely that none of the participants had consciously realised the obvious difference this time around.
Gordon Brown’s heart was hammering. The division was effectively completed and the tellers were assembling their figures. Given the importance of the vote and the knife-edge closeness, he really couldn’t complain about them taking their time to ensure it was correct. They didn’t want another cock-up like that time – hell, how long ago was it? That was it - just before that Maastricht confidence vote under Major, when the tellers had miscounted and announced a tie when the Government had actually won by a single vote. In that case, the Speaker had cast her vote with the Government (for “no change”) anyway, so it hadn’t been crucial. This time, it could be. He had no idea how Bercow would vote in the case of a tie. If there was no majority for AV, he couldn’t vote to create one. But if there was no majority for confidence in the Government … hell. Would he take the stance that he couldn’t create such a majority?
In less dramatic times, it could be an interesting thought experiment. Did the Speaker’s tendency on a tie in a confidence vote depend on who submitted it? If it was a vote of no-confidence, could he take the stance that he couldn’t create a majority of no-confidence where none existed, but if it was a vote of confidence, he couldn’t create a majority of confidence? And in a wider sense, could the Speaker – the neutral and impartial guardian of the standards of the Commons – cast a vote that would bring down the Government? But if he didn’t, he’d be creating a majority for a potential fundamental change to the electoral system of the Commons where none existed. Assuming a tie, of course. He glanced up. Maybe Bercow would be able to give a hint? No – the Speaker just looked faintly queasy. Of course. He’d be running through the same chain of thought. Odds were that Bercow had no idea what he’d have to do and was praying for a majority on one side or the other.
Angrily, he forced his thoughts back on track. All he could do now was work out what he’d do in either case. If he’d won, then those Tory bastards would have lost for good. He’d make absolutely damned sure that the Bill got through the Lords successfully in record time. If he lost – would they have really beaten him? Forced him to dissolve Parliament and give up?
Damn it – Osborne and Cameron were insisting on hanging around chatting just across from him. Looking across and grinning at him. Glancing between Ed Balls and David Milliband every few seconds. They were doing it to fluster him, of course. They knew they had to be standing close in order for him to make them out clearly. Bastards.
Osborne was actually almost as nervous as Brown, but doing a better job at putting on an unworried face. He’d stacked the deck ruthlessly to try to pull this off and if it didn’t work, then Mandelson would be utterly unmerciful in doing everything possible to crush him. All of the possible tricks and ploys that even the so-called Prince of Darkness would normally rule as offside would come into play. He wrenched his thoughts away. He had to focus on the here and now. Do whatever he could to prod Brown in the right direction. He and Cameron had deliberately placed themselves squarely in Brown’s field of view – he had to be stampeded into desperation.
To cover his nervousness, Osborne whispered to Cameron, nonchalantly. “So – who do you reckon he’ll tap? Balls or Milliband? I’ve got fifty on Balls – Brown doesn’t abandon his trusted lieutenants lightly”
Cameron grinned back. “No – it’ll be young David. Even Brown knows that Balls would rip the Party apart. I’ll take that fifty. Heads up – here come the tellers”
Brown took a deep breath. Here was the moment of truth. He watched closely. Which side of the Speaker were the Tory tellers standing?
Oh God. Oh God, no. The Tories were on the Speaker’s left. That’s where the majority stood. On his left. Except – what was the procedure for a tie? Maybe … no, he was grasping at straws.
Bowing to the Speaker, the tellers advanced and the teller standing closest to the Opposition despatch box recited the numbers: “Ayes: two hundred and fifty. Noes: two hundred and fifty-two”
The rest of the words were lost. There was a roaring in his ears, drowning out everything else. Across the Chamber, Cameron and Osborne looked on, slightly disconcerted, as Brown hunched forward, head shaking slowly back and forth, like a bewildered bear. “You don’t think we’ve just killed him, do you?” whispered Osborne, irreverently.
Brown gasped for air. He needed to think! He needed time, damn it! The Clerk had taken the card from the tellers and handed it to the Speaker, who had reread the numbers. “So the Noes have it!” announced Bercow. It was official.
Brown grabbed at a thought. That division he’d been thinking about earlier – on Maastricht. The alternative to dissolution had come up in the debate – God knows which antique had come up with it. Resignation and handing over. And – yes. He didn’t have to hand over to bloody Cameron. Or did he?
No – it had been established in that debate that the PM could hand over to the Chancellor, for example. He could hand over to Balls! Or Milliband! That’d screw the bastard Tories! But which one?
He’d lurched to his feet automatically. He had to make answer to Bercow. The Speaker had just said something along the lines of “… and that this House does not have confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”. He knew his role. He had to make answer, even if there was no answer to make. He had to choose. Right now. Balls? His protégé for so long? But no – like he’d told Mandelson, Balls would never command the Parliamentary Party. It had to be Milliband. But Mandelson had said that Milliband would be a huge error. He was painfully aware that the eyes of the entire House – and doubtless the wider public after the news got out and the camera feeds were piped to the news channels – were on him and he was just standing there, mute.
Balls or Milliband? He had to choose, and choose right now. Oh, shit. Cameron and Osborne. They knew. They knew. That’s why they’d been glancing between Balls and Milliband earlier – they couldn’t help but gloat in advance. They knew either would be a serious error. He had to find another option. He had to.
Then, he knew what to do. His heart rate slowed. His thoughts cleared. For the first time in so, so long, he felt relaxed. He knew what to do. For possibly the first time since he’d taken this damned job, the words came out easily. They fell into the silence, before the uproar started. He had the intense satisfaction of seeing Osborne’s face with a look of complete disbelief painted on it.
Three hours later, in 10 Downing Street.
Mandelson was looking drawn. He clutched his drink like a drowning man clinging to a lifebelt. “Gordon – it’s my fault. I only realised too late. I’m sorry”.
Brown shook his head. “Peter – you pulled off miracles time and time again. Don’t beat yourself up because this last time the miracle was just not quite enough. One more minute and you’d have herded enough of the rebels into the Chamber. You're the only one who saw through it at all, even if it was just too late. What’s done is done”
Mandelson shrugged. “Maybe”. He took a long drink. “But …”
Brown’s lips quirked into a smile. “But … ?”
“But why? Why did you choose to do what you did? You must have known that there were alternatives”
Brown’s smile broadened. “I did. And so did they. They wanted me to choose between Ed and David, and you and I both know that either would be the wrong choice right now. And so do the Tories. So … someone not a million miles from me right now told me some time ago: if you don’t know what to do but you know what the other side want, choose the other option. So I did. And I have no idea what’s going to happen next - but neither do the Tories”
They looked over at the television in the corner of the office. It was a beautiful flatscreen system, hanging delicately from the ceiling in the corner. On it, BBC News 24 were replaying the moment for what had to be the tenth time.
Brown had been standing at the Government Dispatch Box. “Mr Speaker, the House has spoken and its will is absolute under our system, no matter how deceitful has been the way in which it has been brought about. I have to accept that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government and I cannot continue in this way. Mr Speaker, the composition of this House is such that I cannot, in good conscience, recommend to her Majesty that any Member in this House could command a reliable majority. I will therefore go this evening to the Palace and request an audience with Her Majesty. I will request a dissolution of Parliament in the hope that a new election will resolve this issue.”
Mandelson reached out and muted the sound. “It’s a hell of a gamble, Gordon. You have to know that. We’re probably going to lose”
“Yeah. But the Tories won’t necessarily win, either. And we can get back from here. If I’d taken the choice they wanted me to take, we could have ended up at the next election – our fourth in Government – as a Party divided, with a reputation of staleness and infighting. How much support did Major lose at the polls between 92 and 97? More than ten percent, wasn’t it? Where would we be if we were ten percent lower down? The white collar workers could peel off to UKIP. The intelligentsia to the Lib Dems. The floaters to the Tories. The tribal core could sit on their hands. If we ended up third in seats, it’d be over. So, yes. I rolled the dice. I gambled. The one thing that they’d never foresee me doing. And Christ, Peter. It felt good. It felt bloody good!”
There was a long silence, before Mandelson chuckled. “Did you see Osborne’s face? I thought he was going to faint on the spot! Gordon – you did the right thing. We’re screwed, of course, but that’s all. It was either screwed or dead. The Tories are screwed as well. The Lib Dems are broke, so they're screwed, and UKIP are going to have to deal with more public scrutiny than ever before, so they’re screwed as well – they just don’t know it yet. I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen next, either. But neither will anyone else”
He paused. “Any idea about the damned election debates? They media are going to want them again, aren’t they?”
Brown hesitated. “Well, on the plus side, I’m not going to do much worse than last time. On the minus side, it really did cut into the campaigning – but that might actually be better for us. We can’t afford much of a campaign. Only the Tories can. But could the Tories squash the debates?”
Mandelson considered. “I don’t think so. Before we ever did them, either of us could raise up some artificial issues and fail to agree, so the status quo would reign: no debates. Now, the cat is out of the bag. The status quo is that there will be debates under the established principles, unless all of us agree to a change or hiatus”
“Huh. Congdon’s not likely to do that. Neither’s Huhne. But if either Cameron or I withdraw, would they really put on a debate with an empty chair? What if we insist on only Cameron and me, or only Cameron, Huhne and me?”
Mandelson shook his head. “What’s the better story? ‘Back to the Old Guard’, or ‘Labour running scared’? Anyway, I think Cameron’s more scared of Congdon than we are. I’ll get a message to the Beeb that we’re content with the debates to be run again on the same format as last time. I’m pretty sure they damaged Cameron more than us last time, anyway”
From “On the Cusp”
The Friday ambush on the 20th of May ended up with an outcome that not even the plotters who brought it off had foreseen. The second General Election in just over a year would occur in July, with the UKIP question not even close to being settled. The Government confirmed that they would be content for the Prime Ministerial debates to occur again under the same rules as before. The Liberal Democrat and UKIP leadership swiftly confirmed their participation before a possibly more grudging acceptance by the Conservative Party. It is likely that none of the participants had consciously realised the obvious difference this time around.
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I was *so* sure you were going to put Mandy in Number 10, right up to and including the quote 'no member in this House could command a majority'. I'd started grinning.
Not that an election is a disappointment, of course. July. Not much chance of rain, so Labour won't be slaughtered for that reason at least. I'm probably still too heady to realise, but what's the 'obvious difference' in the debates this time? Two parties speaking from a position of government (but not really, as it's C+F, not coalition)?
Oh, and to show how closely I read this but how much of an anal so-and-so I still am - I tried it out loud several times, but I just couldn't get David Cameron to say 'Nah'. I think a 'No' might be more appropriate. Brown shouting 'it felt bloody good!' though, that was easy as pie to hear in my mind's ear.
Brilliant update mate, if this TL was about nuclear weapons and poorly-crafted caricatures of Russian politicians you'd read about on Wikipedia, you'd be a shoo-in for the Turtledove.
Not that an election is a disappointment, of course. July. Not much chance of rain, so Labour won't be slaughtered for that reason at least. I'm probably still too heady to realise, but what's the 'obvious difference' in the debates this time? Two parties speaking from a position of government (but not really, as it's C+F, not coalition)?
Oh, and to show how closely I read this but how much of an anal so-and-so I still am - I tried it out loud several times, but I just couldn't get David Cameron to say 'Nah'. I think a 'No' might be more appropriate. Brown shouting 'it felt bloody good!' though, that was easy as pie to hear in my mind's ear.
Brilliant update mate, if this TL was about nuclear weapons and poorly-crafted caricatures of Russian politicians you'd read about on Wikipedia, you'd be a shoo-in for the Turtledove.
Been faithfully reading this but haven't yet commented. So I'll echo Meadow and simply call it brilliant. Given OTL 2010, I wouldn't be surprised if Brown pulled off a miracle or at least came closish.
AndyC
Donor
I'd have loved to - but I just couldn't. It just didn't pass the plausibility test in my head.
I'm actually wondering how many people will see it coming. Someone is bound to highlight it. Afterwards, of course, it'll seem so totally obvious.
I think you're right. I'll edit it.
The first thing that came to my mind is that Brown can't be called 'unelected' anymore. Of course Cameron could point out that the Conservatives won a plurality of the popular vote last time round, but everyone and their gran could then counter that they were the only party to vote en masse to preserve First Past the Post.
Can't wait for next Wednesday now!
EDIT: Oh.
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Hmmm. So it is another cliffhanger... I will mull. AV has fallen, of course (unless I've completely misunderstood the plot of the last chapter), but if it hadn't I would have foreseen a de-facto 'I agree with Tim/Dave VS I agree with Gordon/Chris' debate setup this time, which I wondered about.
I have to say not passing AV has caught me off-guard - I thought you'd get it through so that the next election would still produce insane results but you'd be able to grind them down in your spreadsheet dungeon to show us what 4-way popular vote splits probably turn into (knowing what we know about where UKIP's support can come from). Your restraint is admirable.
Love it, love it, love it. 4-way FPTP, round two: this time, it's incomprehensible.
I have to say not passing AV has caught me off-guard - I thought you'd get it through so that the next election would still produce insane results but you'd be able to grind them down in your spreadsheet dungeon to show us what 4-way popular vote splits probably turn into (knowing what we know about where UKIP's support can come from). Your restraint is admirable.
Love it, love it, love it. 4-way FPTP, round two: this time, it's incomprehensible.
For a Prince of Darkness and miracle-maker, Mandy doesn't seem good at remembering the Greens.
So Brown and Huhne get to go to the debates once more, now we get to play the guessing game again. I'm predicting the Tories in at first in terms of seats and UKIP coming in third, close to Labour in second, in terms of vote share due to Huhne losing large amounts of support due to tuition fees, the Greens and the Price being right.
So Brown and Huhne get to go to the debates once more, now we get to play the guessing game again. I'm predicting the Tories in at first in terms of seats and UKIP coming in third, close to Labour in second, in terms of vote share due to Huhne losing large amounts of support due to tuition fees, the Greens and the Price being right.
Not sure I can believe UKIP overtaking the Lib Dems in seats even here. Unless, as I now notice reading your post again, your sentence changes in meaning halfway through.
I've been looking forward to this all day, and I have to say I absolutely love this timeline. For a moment I really thought that the tie was going to happen and possibly poor Bercow have a heart attack as he tried to work out what the Speaker was supposed to do in this situation. When it wasn't I also wondered if you'd go with Mandelson as PM. The election is a brilliant outcome for us as well. I wonder if Congdon's happy that his rebel MP has brought about an election or if he's annoyed that the rebellion has prevented AV from coming in.
I'd think that an AV referendum would have to be in the Labour, UKIP and LibDem manifestos. The election is impossible to call, since only the Tories and perhaps UKIP have the funds for it, all four of the parties will be hit a little by their support for the cuts that have already happened (a Green surge as a result?), Labour and the Tories will have lost even more of the student vote, mostly to the LibDems (how did UKIP vote over fees? I have no idea what their policy was on the issue). There's also the potential ticking time bomb under Huhne that is his ex-wife; surely an election is the perfect opportunity for her to take her revenge, unless she's persuaded that they might both go to jail, though its possible she'd think that a price worth paying.
As for the obvious difference, there's now the Greens in Parliament. If they can get enough candidates together, they would have to be included as well, leading to a Fifth Lectern during the debates.
I so look forward to next Wednesday now. Damn you for writing such an enjoyable political timeline.
I'd think that an AV referendum would have to be in the Labour, UKIP and LibDem manifestos. The election is impossible to call, since only the Tories and perhaps UKIP have the funds for it, all four of the parties will be hit a little by their support for the cuts that have already happened (a Green surge as a result?), Labour and the Tories will have lost even more of the student vote, mostly to the LibDems (how did UKIP vote over fees? I have no idea what their policy was on the issue). There's also the potential ticking time bomb under Huhne that is his ex-wife; surely an election is the perfect opportunity for her to take her revenge, unless she's persuaded that they might both go to jail, though its possible she'd think that a price worth paying.
As for the obvious difference, there's now the Greens in Parliament. If they can get enough candidates together, they would have to be included as well, leading to a Fifth Lectern during the debates.
I so look forward to next Wednesday now. Damn you for writing such an enjoyable political timeline.