Would the Ottoman Empire still join WW1 without the 1913 coup?

[Orko]

Say that they 1913 coup, which brought the Three Pashas to power in Constantinople, had failed or never attempted. And that otherwise all other international affairs concerning the Ottoman Empire between Jan. 1913 and Oct. 1914 (outcomes of the two Balkan Wars, Goeben and Breslau affair etc.) remained the same, would the Ottoman Empire still attempt to join the Great War on the Central Powers' side? And if so, would their chances be any better without the mostly-incompetent Three Pashas in charge?

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

Say that they 1913 coup, which brought the Three Pashas to power in Constantinople, had failed or never attempted. And that otherwise all other international affairs concerning the Ottoman Empire between Jan. 1913 and Oct. 1914 (outcomes of the two Balkan Wars, Goeben and Breslau affair etc.) remained the same, would the Ottoman Empire still attempt to join the Great War on the Central Powers' side? And if so, would their chances be any better without the mostly-incompetent Three Pashas in charge?

They would remain neutral but still persecute Christian minorities, albeit not on a genocidal scale like the CUP did. The Ottoman Empire would still collapse at one point, though.

 

[Nivek]

Say that they 1913 coup, which brought the Three Pashas to power in Constantinople, had failed or never attempted. And that otherwise all other international affairs concerning the Ottoman Empire between Jan. 1913 and Oct. 1914 (outcomes of the two Balkan Wars, Goeben and Breslau affair etc.) remained the same, would the Ottoman Empire still attempt to join the Great War on the Central Powers' side? And if so, would their chances be any better without the mostly-incompetent Three Pashas in charge?

Yes,once the battleships were stolen they knew they were next

 

[Sarthak]

Say that they 1913 coup, which brought the Three Pashas to power in Constantinople, had failed or never attempted. And that otherwise all other international affairs concerning the Ottoman Empire between Jan. 1913 and Oct. 1914 (outcomes of the two Balkan Wars, Goeben and Breslau affair etc.) remained the same, would the Ottoman Empire still attempt to join the Great War on the Central Powers' side? And if so, would their chances be any better without the mostly-incompetent Three Pashas in charge?

Unlikely. The 1913 Cabinet was not scheduled an election until 1917 and their cabinet members were very Francophone

They would remain neutral but still persecute Christian minorities, albeit not on a genocidal scale like the CUP did. The Ottoman Empire would still collapse at one point, though.

The 1913 Cabinet famously included 2 Christians and a Jew. While personal cultural and religious biases existed and this came out in regional and local statesmen, official policy from 1909 - 1913 was to remove state and institutional discrimination and persecution of its minorities. Their punishment against Kurds who were killing Armenians ironically led to the Kurds supporting the 1913 Coup, just to give an example.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

Unlikely. The 1913 Cabinet was not scheduled an election until 1917 and their cabinet members were very Francophone

The 1913 Cabinet famously included 2 Christians and a Jew. While personal cultural and religious biases existed and this came out in regional and local statesmen, official policy from 1909 - 1913 was to remove state and institutional discrimination and persecution of its minorities. Their punishment against Kurds who were killing Armenians ironically led to the Kurds supporting the 1913 Coup, just to give an example.

That's great to learn!