Would an ultra coup Portuguese government implement the 'Plan of Lusaka'?

The Banker

I essentially wish to continue the discussion based on @Viriato 's post here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-1962-anc-ufp-pact-holds.338794/post-10117622

Suppose the Portuguese are just a tad bit more successful in Angola, Mozambique and most importantly Guinea-Bisseau thanks to an Ultras coup and manages to barely avoid the revolution and stay in power atleast until 1985
Would the Portuguese Ultras government also support the 'Plan of Lusaka' where Mozambique black and white elites would declare independence under Jorge Pereira Jardim and Portugal would simply act like it had nothing to do with it and accept it as a "fait accompli".

Would the Ultras dictatorship also support such a thing or was it a Caetano only plan?

How would this effect subsequent events?
 
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Viriato

It's hard to say, but it might depend on external pressure. The big key would have been to be more flexible than the old guard of the regime (Salazar and later Américo Tomás). During the last years of the dictatorship there were two different factions in the government. The first was the older guard who favoured keeping the the empire intact at any cost and saw Portugal's future in developing the overseas provinces and integrating their economies further into that of Portugal, while the second tended to be younger technocrats in favour of economic integration with Europe. Marcelo Caetano tried unsuccessfully to appease both and that was ultimate his downfall.

It's hard to predict how things might have turned out, but even amongst some ultras, ditching Portuguese Guinea could have bought some time. An interim solution with limited autonomy for Angola and Mozambique could have possibly kept the status quo going until the end of Communism in Europe (if things play out similarly to how they did). This likely would have meant that if the reins of power are handed over to FRELIMO in Mozambique that a civil war could be averted and in all likihood economic turmoil is also avoided and many if not most of the Europeans and Asians remain in the country. In Angola, this is trickier of course because you still have the MPLA, UNITA and FNLA. Perhaps elections could be successfully held and a civil war in Angola could be avoided instead of just postponed.
 
TheKutKu

TheKutKu

The problem is that by the time of the "ultra" coup (which would almost necessarily either be led or have Arriaga as one of its prominent plotters) in the last months of the Estado Novo, Jorge Jardim had allienated Arriaga over the handling of the Wiriyamu Massacre in summer 73, Jardim had gone against the Army's official line on that and reportedly had presented Caetano evidences of the massacre (there are speculation he did it to appear as more "impartial" to Kaunda and the other african leaders), so he probably played a part in Arriaga's dismissal from his role as head of Armed forces (as well as Governor of Tete Armindo Videira). By 1974 Arriaga refused the Lusaka plan when Jardim presented it to him.
 

The Banker

TheKutKu said:
The problem is that by the time of the "ultra" coup (which would almost necessarily either be led or have Arriaga as one of its prominent plotters) in the last months of the Estado Novo, Jorge Jardim had allienated Arriaga over the handling of the Wiriyamu Massacre in summer 73, Jardim had gone against the Army's official line on that and reportedly had presented Caetano evidences of the massacre (there are speculation he did it to appear as more "impartial" to Kaunda and the other african leaders), so he probably played a part in Arriaga's dismissal from his role as head of Armed forces (as well as Governor of Tete Armindo Videira). By 1974 Arriaga refused the Lusaka plan when Jardim presented it to him.
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First of all, good answer. I appreciate it
Ok for events like this I sometimes use a simple althistory mechanism
Go one year back in history and fix it. Suposse the massacre didn't happen or was covered up or it didn't alienate Jardim.

Then they would continue to have cordial relations
how about then?

if its gonna happen in this fixed timeline then what year would they give self gov to Mozambique iyo?
 

The Banker

Viriato said:
It's hard to say, but it might depend on external pressure. The big key would have been to be more flexible than the old guard of the regime (Salazar and later Américo Tomás). During the last years of the dictatorship there were two different factions in the government. The first was the older guard who favoured keeping the the empire intact at any cost and saw Portugal's future in developing the overseas provinces and integrating their economies further into that of Portugal, while the second tended to be younger technocrats in favour of economic integration with Europe. Marcelo Caetano tried unsuccessfully to appease both and that was ultimate his downfall.

It's hard to predict how things might have turned out, but even amongst some ultras, ditching Portuguese Guinea could have bought some time. An interim solution with limited autonomy for Angola and Mozambique could have possibly kept the status quo going until the end of Communism in Europe (if things play out similarly to how they did). This likely would have meant that if the reins of power are handed over to FRELIMO in Mozambique that a civil war could be averted and in all likihood economic turmoil is also avoided and many if not most of the Europeans and Asians remain in the country. In Angola, this is trickier of course because you still have the MPLA, UNITA and FNLA. Perhaps elections could be successfully held and a civil war in Angola could be avoided instead of just postponed.
Click to expand...
Any Portuguese right winger would never consent to handing over power to a Marxist group like FRELIMO.
Instead I believe they would prop up their own fav 'Pro-Portuguese' governments
Maybe Jardim in Mozambique and 'Wang Jingwei style' Collaborator turned UNITA under Savimbi in Angola.
 
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