WI USS Indiana fires on SMS Kaiserin und Königin Maria Theresia?

[historyfool]

During the Spanish-American War the Austria-Hungarian Armoured Cruiser SMS Kaiserin und Königin Maria Theresia was dispatched to evacuate AH and German citizens from Cuba. On its first attempt to make contact with American forces to get clearance to enter Santiago a US naval auxiliary informed USS Indiana that a Spanish Battleship was attacking troop transports. Its captain got Indiana into position and only identified the ship as neutral relatively late. What if he did not notice that before opening fire? Hit chances are probably fairly low given the low hit percentage the US navy achieved during the war and being 4 knots faster the Austrian cruiser should be able to escape without serious damage. Then again shit happens when the shells start flying...

So what would be the diplomatic effect of that incident - with or without any hits or perhaps even with a golden BB sinking the cruiser? Even in the unlikely event that Maria Theresia is sunk neither side has anything to win from actually going to war. The Germans of course otl tried to profit from the war, but they too had no interest in an actual conflict with the US. But they might use it to put some more pressure on the US. For that matter how will the other great powers react to that incident, after the public reason for the war was an alleged attack on a neutral ship (USS Maine) during a conflict (Cuban revolution) it was not involved in.

 

[Count of Crisco]

During the Spanish-American War the Austria-Hungarian Armoured Cruiser SMS Kaiserin und Königin Maria Theresia was dispatched to evacuate AH and German citizens from Cuba. On its first attempt to make contact with American forces to get clearance to enter Santiago a US naval auxiliary informed USS Indiana that a Spanish Battleship was attacking troop transports. Its captain got Indiana into position and only identified the ship as neutral relatively late. What if he did not notice that before opening fire? Hit chances are probably fairly low given the low hit percentage the US navy achieved during the war and being 4 knots faster the Austrian cruiser should be able to escape without serious damage. Then again shit happens when the shells start flying...

So what would be the diplomatic effect of that incident - with or without any hits or perhaps even with a golden BB sinking the cruiser? Even in the unlikely event that Maria Theresia is sunk neither side has anything to win from actually going to war. The Germans of course otl tried to profit from the war, but they too had no interest in an actual conflict with the US. But they might use it to put some more pressure on the US. For that matter how will the other great powers react to that incident, after the public reason for the war was an alleged attack on a neutral ship (USS Maine) during a conflict (Cuban revolution) it was not involved in.

It would certainly give the Spanish ammunition in any peace talks, maybe (slim) chance the attack gets a few major powers involved to stop the fighting and launch an investigation into the sinking. Say the attack happens, Spain says the Maine Blew up without Spanish involvement, asking why they would do such a thing, and that now the US is attacking any foreign flagged warship. Proving the US is only out for conquest and has no higher motive than mere bloodlust. A-H meanwhile calls for mediation in the conflict and a force is dispatched to patrol the warzone and prevent any further action while the Maine sinking is investigated.

Again a slim chance, but a chance.

 

[p0lish_runn3r]

Well, if the fighting stops before July 25th the Americans will not have landed in Puerto Rico so maybe with this new leverage the Spanish keep a very tiny foothold in the Carribean? Just a tiny tidbit.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Wonder how FJ would take it? Mean, his brother was executed by Mexican Republicans (backed by the US) and now the US sinks one of his cruisers for no reason beyond an "honest mistake". If we move up Sissi's death a few months, FJ might not be in a "good place" mentally at the time of the occurence.

 

[historyfool]

Well, if the fighting stops before July 25th the Americans will not have landed in Puerto Rico so maybe with this new leverage the Spanish keep a very tiny foothold in the Carribean? Just a tiny tidbit.

Well, the incident took place on the 3rd of July, so the timing for that is a bit tight, but maybe the Americans need to be a bit more circumspect in the post war settlement.

And while we are a post-war settlement, could this affect the American annexation of the Philippines? It was not undisputed even otl after all. Could e.g. the Germans transform this into a wedge to guarantee at least a formal independence that allows equal economic access to them, even if the US retain special privileges? Perhaps a sort of Cuba in the Pacific?

 

[p0lish_runn3r]

Well, the incident took place on the 3rd of July, so the timing for that is a bit tight, but maybe the Americans need to be a bit more circumspect in the post war settlement.

And while we are a post-war settlement, could this affect the American annexation of the Philippines? It was not undisputed even otl after all. Could e.g. the Germans transform this into a wedge to guarantee at least a formal independence that allows equal economic access to them, even if the US retain special privileges? Perhaps a sort of Cuba in the Pacific?

So basically America takes Guam and Hawaii. Cuba and the Phillipines are freed but the US gains privileges. Spain probably then gets less or no money for Philippine freedom, but keeps Puerto Rico. The mighty Spanish Empire endures!

 

[historyfool]

Well that is one extreme of possible outcomes. The other extreme would be something like: not much changes for the war or peace, the US issues an apology and pays reparation, but they are a bit more cautious the next few years when dealing with the European powers, e.g. during the Venezuela crisis. Or not much changes for the war or peace, the US issues an apology and pays reparation, but loose some credibility short term so Germany, Britain and Italy push a bit harder in the Venezuela crisis.