The Entente learned during the German spring offensive that the German emperor had taken quarters at castle Trenon. Hoping to break the German morale it was decided to make an attempt to kill him. On June 2nd several RAF bombers attacked and did some damage despite not destroying the castle and riddled the nearby stationed personal train of the emperor with bullets. But Wilhelm had left the day before and was not present.
But WI the emperor is killed, either because the attack is a day earlier or because he is still there?
It leaves a bit of a mess. I don´t think that the hoped for breakdown in morale happens, as the emperor is not really popular enough anymore. It won´t help the Germans either though, even if a direct attack on the constitutional makeup of the empire might be a bit of a rallying cry. The Crown Prince was a hardliner compared to his father, but he will need time to establish himself. Strongest power in Germany is now more than ever the OHL. The chancellor Georg von Hertling is in a weak position as he has no backing either among hardliners or peace proponents with his attempts to accomodate everyone. The Reichstag is divided, but at this point the peace at all cost faction is small otl and will ittl be even less influential. The negotiated peace faction will still be gaining, but might be less flexible about some peace conditions than otl.
Militarily the situation becomes more and more hopeless and Germany will likely have to ask for an armistice around the same time as otl. Fighting might be a bit harder before though. Then again, with the shakeup of the political landscape, which might lead to some instability, peace feelers might be extended earlier than otl, before the collapse of the German army becomes obvious. But what next? With the emperor a casualty of the war, I can see him become something of a martyr and republicanism being less popular in Germany. Maybe not enough to prevent the monarchy from falling, but then the new government will be less stable. And either way the opposition to a Versailles style treaty will likely be stronger. Even otl the Germans initially refused to sign and after it became recognized that they had no alternative more than a third of the Reichstag still refused to vote for its ratification. I mean what would the allies do if the German government simply could not get a majority for the treaty? Or if the government that signs it immediately collapses? Are they really willing to occupy a Germany on the edge of civil war for years or even decades?
And even if we get basically otl Versailles, how would the Entente deal with a government that needs to be more revisionist than otl just to remain minimally stable?
For that matter how would the Entente deal with the new (and maybe former) emperor after the war? Otl they wanted him for alleged war crimes, but relented on that. This tl he will probably have more backing in Germany and will be the rallying figure of German monarchism, not sharing that position with his tired father (who was held responsible for the war, something unlikely for the crown prince). The Entente also already killed his father.
More importantly what would be the international repercussions of killing a reigning head of state during a war? The last in Europe otl was IIRC Charles XII. in 1718, the last in the Western World was Paraguyan dictator Solano Lopez, who was at that point a madman. And both died in actual combat (Lopez actively refused to surrender), not from a planned, targeted attack on them. Assassination of the head of state of a peer power is not really diplomatic practice of the day.
But WI the emperor is killed, either because the attack is a day earlier or because he is still there?
It leaves a bit of a mess. I don´t think that the hoped for breakdown in morale happens, as the emperor is not really popular enough anymore. It won´t help the Germans either though, even if a direct attack on the constitutional makeup of the empire might be a bit of a rallying cry. The Crown Prince was a hardliner compared to his father, but he will need time to establish himself. Strongest power in Germany is now more than ever the OHL. The chancellor Georg von Hertling is in a weak position as he has no backing either among hardliners or peace proponents with his attempts to accomodate everyone. The Reichstag is divided, but at this point the peace at all cost faction is small otl and will ittl be even less influential. The negotiated peace faction will still be gaining, but might be less flexible about some peace conditions than otl.
Militarily the situation becomes more and more hopeless and Germany will likely have to ask for an armistice around the same time as otl. Fighting might be a bit harder before though. Then again, with the shakeup of the political landscape, which might lead to some instability, peace feelers might be extended earlier than otl, before the collapse of the German army becomes obvious. But what next? With the emperor a casualty of the war, I can see him become something of a martyr and republicanism being less popular in Germany. Maybe not enough to prevent the monarchy from falling, but then the new government will be less stable. And either way the opposition to a Versailles style treaty will likely be stronger. Even otl the Germans initially refused to sign and after it became recognized that they had no alternative more than a third of the Reichstag still refused to vote for its ratification. I mean what would the allies do if the German government simply could not get a majority for the treaty? Or if the government that signs it immediately collapses? Are they really willing to occupy a Germany on the edge of civil war for years or even decades?
And even if we get basically otl Versailles, how would the Entente deal with a government that needs to be more revisionist than otl just to remain minimally stable?
For that matter how would the Entente deal with the new (and maybe former) emperor after the war? Otl they wanted him for alleged war crimes, but relented on that. This tl he will probably have more backing in Germany and will be the rallying figure of German monarchism, not sharing that position with his tired father (who was held responsible for the war, something unlikely for the crown prince). The Entente also already killed his father.
More importantly what would be the international repercussions of killing a reigning head of state during a war? The last in Europe otl was IIRC Charles XII. in 1718, the last in the Western World was Paraguyan dictator Solano Lopez, who was at that point a madman. And both died in actual combat (Lopez actively refused to surrender), not from a planned, targeted attack on them. Assassination of the head of state of a peer power is not really diplomatic practice of the day.