WI the Brandenburg naval squardron meets the treasure fleet in 1681

[historyfool]

In 1680/81 Brandenburg tried to get owed subsidies from Spain by privateering with limited success.
In 1681 of St. Vincent the Brandenburg commander mistook a force of 12 Spanish galleons and 3 smaller ships for the treasure fleet they were waiting for. In fact it was a fleet hunting the Brandenburg fleet. Noticing his mistake the Brandenburg commander was able to extract his ships with minor damage and losses after 2 hours, but he was forced to take refuge in Lagos. A few days later the Spanish treasure fleet passed the location of the battle and reached Cadiz unharmed.

With the lack of success of that operation and because diplomatic pressure mounted the elector decided to cancel the privateering operation.

Now I have been wondering what happens if the Brandenburg fleet is delayed by a few days and encounters the treasure fleet. How much of it can they really capture with the limited force available:

• Markgraf von Brandenburg (ex Carolus Secundus, captured from Spain 1680), 50 guns
• Fuchs, 20
• Rother Löwe, 20
• Eichhorn, 12
• Prinzess Maria, 12
• Wasserhund, 10

What would be the short term results of a major success? OTL Spain protested and increased patrols to counter the privateers when it learnedo of the operation, but considered it just a nuisance, while Brandenburg was pressured by other states diplomatically to stop the operation and decided that the meagre results were not worse the trouble. Would a major hit change both evaluations in a major way? Would Brandenburg be willing to continue despite the risks from possible reactions and would Spain consider more direct action against Brandenburg?

And how about the long term consequences? OTL Brandenburgs fleet remained of minor importance and died a slow death over the next decades and with it the limited colonial ambitions of Brandenburg (or the other way round). At the same time Brandenburg/Prussia remained a largely inoffensive and unthreatening power with mostly good relations with other countries some of which might not react well to its naval ambition (as did otl at times the French, the Dutch and the emperor).

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

I had this scenario in mind for a future TL. Anyway, I think with a success of taking the Spanish treasure fleet it would have tremendous consequences. The Brandenburg fleet would be strengenthed and could possibly play a minor rule in the next centuries, at least being able to keep the Dutch and Spanish at bay. That may indeed make Brandenburg/Prussia to an early British ally.

However, to do so it must be more profitable. Thus own colonies were needed. With more weight, more victories in the wars with France this would have been possible.

 

[jabberwoky]

Thus own colonies were needed. With more weight, more victories in the wars with France this would have been possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Thomas_(Brandenburg_colony)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandenburger_Gold_Coast

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arguin

They did have some colonies. Id imagine, with a more succsessful fleet, we would see more Brandenburg colonies a larger Brandenburger involvement in the slave trade. I would also be interested to see what Brandenburg-Prussias run of highly competent kings would do with a fleet and some colonies...

 

[Major Major]

The Great Elector puts the money in kegs, and the kegs in the cellar. Twenty years later Friedrich I has an Even Grander coronation.

 

[historyfool]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Thomas_(Brandenburg_colony)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandenburger_Gold_Coast

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arguin

They did have some colonies. Id imagine, with a more succsessful fleet, we would see more Brandenburg colonies a larger Brandenburger involvement in the slave trade. I would also be interested to see what Brandenburg-Prussias run of highly competent kings would do with a fleet and some colonies...

The otl colonial attempts of Brandenburg were not profitable though due to two major problems: corruption and the lack of a secure, large enough market at the American end of the triangle.

The first might be less of a problem if the operations are better funded ittl and if some of the key players have less need for greed due to their share of the fleet.

The second needs major Brandenburg plantation colonies in the Americas. I am not sure where they would be placed. Furthermore I wonder about the diplomatic consequences. Spain of course will be pissed at Brandenburg for some time after a captured treasure fleet (which might produce difficulties with the emperor). But extended colonial activities might also produce some strains with other nations, especially the Netherlands, which were the leading nation of the triangle trade, but also with France and Britain, which might be interested in the same lands as Brandenburg.

Brandenburg profited in the time before the Silesian wars from the fact that it was considered moderately powerful, but did not seriously threaten/rival any areas of interest of other major powers except Sweden. That diplomatic inoffensiveness gave Brandenburg/Prussia much freedom of action.

And finally, how would the mere existence of important colonies itself restrict Brandenburgs freedom of action? They did not exactly have a decent access to the Atlantic. In fact they did base their colonial actions out of Emden to improve access, but still most major powers would be able to interrupt access to them. Not to mention that Brandenburg hardly would be able to defend its colonies.

The Great Elector puts the money in kegs, and the kegs in the cellar. Twenty years later Friedrich I has an Even Grander coronation.

You say that as a joke, but since the successful attacks on treasure fleets all captured several annual budgets of Brandenburg it is well possible that some of the money still remains twenty years later. Not even Friedrich I. was that much of a spendthrift, especially in the first decade of his rule.