WI no Teutonic Knights in Prussia?

[seraphim74]

WI the Teutonic Knights never came to Prussia? Let's say they remained in Transylvania or simple they were never invited by Polish prince Konrad of Masovia. What are the consequences for Poland, Lithuania, Old Prussians, Livonian Knights etc.?

 

[BrotherToAll]

I would think eventually the Poles would absorb all of Prussia as Crown Territory. I think eventually the Old Prussians would be absorbed by the Poles and of course this would pit Lithuania against Poland. No Teutonic Knights trying to kill them would mean that eventually the Poles and Lithuanians would come into conflict, but that doesn't need to happen though since the Poles were never filled with the Crusader spirit in the way the Germans were. Also Lithuania still might convert to Catholicism anyway in order to secure a friendly ally to the west in order for it to continue its conquests in the east.

Of course I could be completely wrong in my assumptions.

 

[carlton_bach]

The Danes and Swedes would play a major role in the area and might well come to dominate coastal regions like they did further north. But in terms of suzerainty, Polish domination is likely - they were the big player in the region.

Without the pressure of the crusaders, the political history of Lithuania may look completely different. I simply don't know enough about it to say how it would go, but unless the Poles decide to take an active aggressive stance, that has to have an effect.

The Russians might be able to push further west sooner - coastal lands of Great Novgorod...

You'd probably still see extensive German settlement in the area, but by invitation, the way it went in Poland and Bohemia.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Yes, but what about Drang nach Osten? The Germans are an expanding people that are looking to colonize somewhere; if not the Teutonic Knights, than german people may just come and settle in Poland without direct Germanic rule. The Polish nobility seemed to prefer the German settlers, as they were loyal, paid taxes, and often were skilled in western european trades that did not exist in great quantities in the East. Remember, when the knights came, Danzig was exclusively a German city that resisted control by the German Order in favor of the Polish King. Perhaps greater settlement of the East with a friendlier attitude between the Germans and Poles initially, but when the Western most provinces of Poland become basically German, the various German kings/princes are going to come knocking later on in history, looking to annex them into the Reich/Prussia/whatever.

 

[carlton_bach]

Yes, but what about Drang nach Osten? The Germans are an expanding people that are looking to colonize somewhere; if not the Teutonic Knights, than german people may just come and settle in Poland without direct Germanic rule. The Polish nobility seemed to prefer the German settlers, as they were loyal, paid taxes, and often were skilled in western european trades that did not exist in great quantities in the East. Remember, when the knights came, Danzig was exclusively a German city that resisted control by the German Order in favor of the Polish King. Perhaps greater settlement of the East with a friendlier attitude between the Germans and Poles initially, but when the Western most provinces of Poland become basically German, the various German kings/princes are going to come knocking later on in history, looking to annex them into the Reich/Prussia/whatever.

The Teutonic Order control of Prussia became a national myth much later. German settlement is going to be largely unaffected, though it may well take on a slightly different shape (the order drew settler from High German speaking areas IIRC, while most settlers in Poland and the Baltics were Low German speaking, mostly from Westfalia and modern Lower Saxony). There cis no reason why the port cities from Reval to Stettin should be any less dudesch than OTL.

 

[robmel]

WI the Teutonic Knights never came to Prussia? Let's say they remained in Transylvania or simple they were never invited by Polish prince Konrad of Masovia. What are the consequences for Poland, Lithuania, Old Prussians, Livonian Knights etc.?

First of all Poland was not united at that time when Konrad gave Kulmerland/Chelmno land as a fief to TO, so its very hard to tell. We of course assume that some Piast prince would unite Polish duchies somewhere around 14th century.

As for Masovia, Prussians would continue to raid it (the reason why Konrad asked TO to help) unless the power balance is severely changed.

Duchy of Pomerelia seemed to be on friendly terms with neighbouring Prussian tribes for commercial reasons (Swantopolk II support for Prussian fight against TO). So when there would be drive for Poland's unification, Gdansk will become integral part of kingdom and commercial hub bringing money through Wisla river trade network way faster than 1466 unless of course Brandenburgians conquer Gdansk in 1308.

With destruction of Order of Sword Brothers in battle of Saule in 1236 by alliance of Lithuanians, Samogitians, Semigallians, there would be no Teutonic Order which could take over Sword Brother's possessions in Livonia. Basically the whole left bank of Daugava/Duna/Dvinsk river and paganic tribes like Curonians, Semigallians, Selonians will fall under Lithuanian influence. The right bank would be unprotected from Lithuanian attacks after loosing the main military force. Its likely that Estonian tribes would revolt again this time succesfully. The Archbishop of Riga and its German vassals would be hard pressed to keep any kind of control over Lets and Livs.

The Prussians would continue to be divided in clans unless some strongman would appear amongst them and would start a bloody unification like Mindaugas did with Lithuanians. If not - because of cultural, language and religious similarities they would be drawn into expansionist Lithuanian pagan state, but with high autonomy like Samogitia - essentially it would be tribal confederation. Actually the centre of Lithuanian state would likely move to more vantage-ground like Sembian peninsula in Prussia, because of maritime and trade options it would offer, but that is very speculative anyway.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Plus the Teutonic order also helped unite the Lithuanians and Poles, making possible the later union. Without a common enemy the pagan Lithuanians and the Catholic Poles would fight each other, essentially wearing themselves down, perhaps making themselves MORE vulnerable in the long run, perhaps allowing for greater Germanic penetration into Eastern Europe. Maybe Poland falls apart sooner as a result, but who knows. The pesky butterflies are so unperdictable.

The most likely outcome is a more bitter eastern European feud among the Slavic groups and Baltic peoples, with German settlers moving in for more freedom from the German princes further west. Eventually those princes are going to be looking to expand their power and if Eastern Europe is disorganized, they will fall victim to ambitious nobles looking to carve out an empire and establish a base outside the Holy Roman Empire.

Who knows, perhaps the German Order actually set back German expansion!

 

[Valdemar II]

Plus the Teutonic order also helped unite the Lithuanians and Poles, making possible the later union. Without a common enemy the pagan Lithuanians and the Catholic Poles would fight each other, essentially wearing themselves down, perhaps making themselves MORE vulnerable in the long run, perhaps allowing for greater Germanic penetration into Eastern Europe. Maybe Poland falls apart sooner as a result, but who knows. The pesky butterflies are so unperdictable.

The most likely outcome is a more bitter eastern European feud among the Slavic groups and Baltic peoples, with German settlers moving in for more freedom from the German princes further west. Eventually those princes are going to be looking to expand their power and if Eastern Europe is disorganized, they will fall victim to ambitious nobles looking to carve out an empire and establish a base outside the Holy Roman Empire.

Who knows, perhaps the German Order actually set back German expansion!

There's no doubt it did, the fast conquest of the Baltic Countries and the conversion and enserfment of the natives under a German aristrocracy resulted in little need to import settlers to the Baltic countries.

 

[robmel]

Plus the Teutonic order also helped unite the Lithuanians and Poles, making possible the later union. Without a common enemy the pagan Lithuanians and the Catholic Poles would fight each other, essentially wearing themselves down, perhaps making themselves MORE vulnerable in the long run,

Why would they fight each other?

perhaps allowing for greater Germanic penetration into Eastern Europe. Maybe Poland falls apart sooner as a result, but who knows. The pesky butterflies are so unperdictable.

German penetration? Which tiny German duchy or county is going to penetrate into Eastern Europe? Germans were way more divided than Poles.

The most likely outcome is a more bitter eastern European feud among the Slavic groups and Baltic peoples, with German settlers moving in for more freedom from the German princes further west.

There actually were not that many German settlers and after the Black Death the flow of settlers stopped. Many were polonized in Greater Poland and Lesser Poland provinces. Silesia was very mixed. In Pomerania peasantry spoke Slavic till 30 years war. Prussia was only "Germanized" in 18th century.

Eventually those princes are going to be looking to expand their power and if Eastern Europe is disorganized, they will fall victim to ambitious nobles looking to carve out an empire and establish a base outside the Holy Roman Empire.

This statement works both ways - a disorganized Germany could fall victim to ambitious Polish dukes.

There's no doubt it did, the fast conquest of the Baltic Countries and the conversion and enserfment of the natives under a German aristrocracy resulted in little need to import settlers to the Baltic countries.

There was little need to import settlers to the Baltic countries because the Baltic region largely escaped Black Death and German aristocracy were not 19th century German nationalists.
Also serfdom came way later - gradually from 16th century it became stronger reaching its zenith in 18th century. The Latvian or Estonian peasant duties differed very little to those which German peasants in Brandenburg, Holstein, Mecklenburg or Saxony had to perform to their local manoral nobility.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Why would they fight each other?

Religious differences, plus Lithuania was expanding as an empire, which means there very well could be a struggle to determine the pecking order in the East. Now there could have also been detente and a marriage just like OTL, but that is much easier if both sides were fighting a common enemy that is trying to take control of the area. Chances are that a power struggle would happen. I am not an expert on Polish-Lithuanian relations in the period, but speaking of broad trends in human and European nature, it is a stronger possibility than if the German Order was battering down the door.

German penetration? Which tiny German duchy or county is going to penetrate into Eastern Europe? Germans were way more divided than Poles.

No one up front. I am speaking about the future. In the coming centuries there will be a "peaceful penetration" of Germans escaping the confines of princely control for the freedom of the east. The population pressure was building in the west, especially in the lowlands in the north. In the east, the trade skills that the Germanic settlers brought with were in high demand, as the local population had not produced enough skilled workers (not speaking of Congress Poland, rather the lower populated areas on the coast that still had pagan tribes).

There actually were not that many German settlers and after the Black Death the flow of settlers stopped. Many were polonized in Greater Poland and Lesser Poland provinces. Silesia was very mixed. In Pomerania peasantry spoke Slavic till 30 years war. Prussia was only "Germanized" in 18th century.

Well, there were not millions of settlers moving in to Poland straight away, as the process happened over centuries. But as time went on, the German populations all over Eastern Europe were expanding through settlers and natural growth. The Black Death cut off immigration for some time, but as farming improved in the 15th and 16th centuries, population pressures began to build, sending more people the Eastern Europe. Again, I am speaking of the long term, not the 12th and 13th centuries exclusively.

Plus, I am suggesting that there may also be a power struggle for control of the east, and nations that were aligned OTL, Lithuania-Poland, perhaps would not, as there was no outside pressue to join together. Given human nature, it is likely that these two nations would fight for dominance of the East instead of uniting. This means wars, which generally means depopulation, which in turn makes the East more attractive for settlers looking for cheap land, and beneficial for the Polish princes to attract skilled labor from the West.

This statement works both ways - a disorganized Germany could fall victim to ambitious Polish dukes.

Very true. It could happen, given that the Polish were not attacked ITTL. But they had trouble exerting control over the periphery of the nation. Centeralization was a benefit of having to fight a powerful enemy. However, the Poles had a tendency not to like central control, which makes it less likely that they would be able to centralize enough to take over the German principalities. They didn't OTL, despite being more powerful and dominant after the Teutonic Knights left (Brandenburg/Prussia excluded as they fell under Polish control intermittently for a while).

There was little need to import settlers to the Baltic countries because the Baltic region largely escaped Black Death and German aristocracy were not 19th century German nationalists.
Also serfdom came way later - gradually from 16th century it became stronger reaching its zenith in 18th century. The Latvian or Estonian peasant duties differed very little to those which German peasants in Brandenburg, Holstein, Mecklenburg or Saxony had to perform to their local manoral nobility.

Well, the Black Death might have spared Eastern Europe, but the Mongols sure didn't. That was a major cause of the German Drang nach Osten: the devestation caused by the invasion left entire areas depopulated, which meant that the Germanic peoples to the west were actively welcomed by the Polish nobility. Similar situation in Hungary.

 

[abas]

WI the Teutonic Knights never came to Prussia? Let's say they remained in Transylvania or simple they were never invited by Polish prince Konrad of Masovia. What are the consequences for Poland, Lithuania, Old Prussians, Livonian Knights etc.?

Poland would be more successful in taking on Pomerelia in 14th century without strong force to compete with.
Prussian confederacy would some time be able to fence out attempts to conquer by Mazovian princes, in beginning of 13th century they were even able successfully counter-attack, but I doubt they would be so successful against united Polish kingdom.
Lithuania would expand in the territory on the East from Prussian confederacy (which orginaly included only Pomesania, Pogesania, Lubava and Sasna on the map ) and along Daugava and the Sword Brothers hardly were power that were able to prevent this.

 

[Extrasolar Angel]

WI the Teutonic Knights never came to Prussia? Let's say they remained in Transylvania or simple they were never invited by Polish prince Konrad of Masovia. What are the consequences for Poland, Lithuania, Old Prussians, Livonian Knights etc.?

Was done, you would have to buy the article though:

http://wyborcza.pl/1,75480,375747.html

Basically. Without TK-Poland and Lithuania are not merged-Polish focus is not diverted to East from its former territory in Pomerania and Silesia. Poles do take part in fights in HRE to regain Silesian holdings and are succesfully to a certain measure.
Without expansion in the East Polish population instead of spreading out in large agricultural regions concentrates in the cities, creating the urban class similiar to what happened in the Western Europe.
A side effect due to lack of German threat is that German language is more accepted at the court and among nobles-which leads to more changed Polish, more similiar to Silesian but not as heavily Germanised, simply more loand words, phrases etc.
Without Polish intervention Lithuania faces the onslaughts from the East and becomes Orthodox gradually, it remains to be seen if its absorbed into Russia or becomes a state of its own engaging in constant wars in after states of Kievan Rus.
By XIX century Poland is based on nobility and gentry as well as rich urban folk. It is a far more rational, economic driven country rather then idealistic, missionary type of state like in OTL. Its infrastructure and its industry if also more developed. It's still however influenced by its slavic heritage in poetry, arts and attachment to individualism.
From there it's hard to tell-Germany certainly gets unified by one of its states, while some kind of Russian state also emerges in the East.
The author assumes that with lack of strong colonies, and more pro-German orientation Poland could be tempted to join Central Powers if they emerge in WW1, altough I don't think if its appropriate to envision such similiar constructs with so early POD.

But they had trouble exerting control over the periphery of the nation.

Masovia was the periphery. Up to 14th century Silesia was the strongest in terms importance region of Poland, with most serious contenders for Polish throne coming from there.

Without a common enemy the pagan Lithuanians and the Catholic Poles would fight each other

They were creating alliances earlier due to fights of Lithuania with Muscovy.

 

[abas]

Religious differences, plus Lithuania was expanding as an empire, which means there very well could be a struggle to determine the pecking order in the East. Now there could have also been detente and a marriage just like OTL, but that is much easier if both sides were fighting a common enemy that is trying to take control of the area. Chances are that a power struggle would happen. I am not an expert on Polish-Lithuanian relations in the period, but speaking of broad trends in human and European nature, it is a stronger possibility than if the German Order was battering down the door.

They were fighting over 14th century. But keep in mind that was presence of Teutonic knights that pushed Poles' expansion more to the East.

Plus, I am suggesting that there may also be a power struggle for control of the east, and nations that were aligned OTL, Lithuania-Poland, perhaps would not, as there was no outside pressue to join together. Given human nature, it is likely that these two nations would fight for dominance of the East instead of uniting. This means wars, which generally means depopulation, which in turn makes the East more attractive for settlers looking for cheap land, and beneficial for the Polish princes to attract skilled labor from the West.

The pressure that forced Lithuania and Poland to unite was not the Teutonic knights, but the Grand Principality of Moscow and Russia latter

Well, the Black Death might have spared Eastern Europe, but the Mongols sure didn't. That was a major cause of the German Drang nach Osten: the devestation caused by the invasion left entire areas depopulated, which meant that the Germanic peoples to the west were actively welcomed by the Polish nobility. Similar situation in Hungary.

But Mongols didn't reached Baltic.

 

[Extrasolar Angel]

Interesting butterflies in regards to future of Germany.
Without Prussia there would be less expansionistic ideas, less militiarism and less tradition of viewing Slavs and Balts as inferior barbarians. Also the idea of Drang Nach Osten would be diminished.
Would Brandenburg be strong enough to press for unification of Germany in the way Prussia did or would Austria assume that role ?

 

[robmel]

Without Prussia there would be less expansionistic ideas,

Why?, the start of Prussian expansionism depended only upon the rulling character - Friedrich the Great. Same kind of guy may come to the throne in Oldenburg, Baden or any other German duchy.

and less tradition of viewing Slavs and Balts as inferior barbarians. Also the idea of Drang Nach Osten would be diminished.

"Inferior Barbarians?" That's in the spirit of the 19th century nationalism. Also the idea of "Drang nach Osten" is way more often attributed by Slavic writers to Germans, not in the other way. Plus it is also a 19th century invention.

Would Brandenburg be strong enough to press for unification of Germany in the way Prussia did or would Austria assume that role ?

Why do you assume that no matter what kind of events happen in history, the Brandenburg is going to press for unification of Germany sooner or later?

Also Austria might as well not exist, all it depends is some Habsburg duke dieing without leaving heirs, which they were quite close several times in medieval ages.

 

[Philip]

Interesting butterflies in regards to future of Germany.

Quite an ironic statement given the way you ignore the effects of butterflies in the rest of your post.

Without Prussia there would be less expansionistic ideas, less militiarism

Why? OTL Prussian tendencies are a result of a man living 500 years after the POD. There is no reason to assume that a man with similar ambitions would not arise somewhere else in the German lands over the course of history. In fact, it seems more likely to assume that at least one German prince would have the same idea. Maybe not the same success, but certainly the same ideas.

Would Brandenburg be strong enough to press for unification of Germany in the way Prussia did or would Austria assume that role ?

Again, you miss the effects of the butterflies. It doesn't have to be Brandenburg or Austria. There are some 600 years between the POD and OTL's German Unification. There are any number of ways the Germans can be unified in that time. It could follow a path similar to OTL with another duchy leading the way. It could come from a successful imperial reform. Or a *Reformation leading to a German National Church that is the catalyst. Or 27 other way that I can't imagine.

 

[Extrasolar Angel]

, the start of Prussian expansionism depended only upon the rulling character - Friedrich the Great. Same kind of guy may come to the throne in Oldenburg, Baden or any other German duchy.

The origin of Prussia was in expansionism. To the extent of my knowledge it was the only surviving crusader state.

In fact, it seems more likely to assume that at least one German prince would have the same idea. Maybe not the same success, but certainly the same ideas.

Might be, but he wouldn't have the combination of supreriority complex towards the east, his country origins as crusader state and militarism.
Prussia was quite an unique creation and its frutis were consequence of that.

It doesn't have to be Brandenburg or Austria.

Well butterflies don't mean changing the whole world-many changes there would be but geopolitics would stil leave similar resources and population drifts to certain regions.

"Inferior Barbarians?" That's in the spirit of the 19th century nationalism.

Funny, its quite present in XVIII century in Prusssia.

Plus it is also a 19th century invention.

Is that why Frederick the Great settled German colonists to displace Polish population ?

 

[Typo]

Well butterflies don't mean changing the whole world-many changes there would be but geopolitics would stil leave similar resources and population drifts to certain regions.

To certain regions, but not to certain states, Brandenburg-Prussia only got catapulted to great power status after the acquiring Silesia, the taking of which is far from inevitable. Without the Pomeranian, Prussian or Silesian provinces Brandenburg probably would just be another mid-sized German states, probably without less power in the north than Bavaria in the south.

 

[BrotherToAll]

One question is what about the Teutonic Knights? What do they do instead of riding off to fight the Prussians?

 

[Philip]

One question is what about the Teutonic Knights? What do they do instead of riding off to fight the Prussians?

Per the OP:

WI the Teutonic Knights never came to Prussia? Let's say they remained in Transylvania

Most likely, they end up fighting Turks.