Fearless Leader
Donor
Now, a cursory glance at the German Invasion of Denmark and Norway reveals that the Germans were incredibly lucky in achieving the level of surprise they did. In fact there have been several timelines in which the Germans did not achieve a similar level of surprise leading to a prolonged campaign in Norway. While doing research for a similar TL I was struck by an interesting possibility for things to have gone the other way.
One of the key moments of the Invasion of Norway was the [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dr%C3%B8bak_Sound]Battle of Drøbak Sound[/URL] in which the German taskforce assigned to land at Oslo was fired upon by Norwegian coastal fortifications resulting in the German heavy cruiser Blücher being sunk and the Lutzow being damaged as well as the rest of the taskforce being forced to land outside of Oslo.
Yet, had the commander of the Oscarborg fortress not been willing to defy government orders and fire upon the unknown flotilla, history could very well have been considerably different. For our POD let's assume that the Germans manage to sink the Norwegian patrol boat before it can fire off flares and that Oberst Birger Eriksen slips and is knocked unconscious around midnight April 8/9. I think these two POD's would effectively give the German taskforce enough leeway to slip past the guns of Oscarborg (paralyzed due to a lack of leadership) and land their troops in Oslo as originally intended.
Now had the Germans managed to do this it would have had some interesting ramifications. The German troops onboard the Blücher were tasked with capturing the Norwegian Royal Family, the Norwegian government, and the Norwegian Gold Reserves. Without the precious hours bought by the Oscarborg fortress in OTL, in TTL the Germans stand a good chance of scoring a major coup and capturing a good chunk of the Norwegian gold reserve along with the Royal Family and much of the government.
Assuming they succeed, I think this will change the Norwegian campaign significantly. First off, having been captured by the Germans the Norwegian government is going to be far more willing to negotiate in order to secure a lenient occupation. King Haakon will most likely resign in favour of his son (who was in favour of remaining in Norway in OTL to lessen the blow of the occupation), and Vikdun Quisling will be appointed to be head of the new Norwegian government with far more legitimacy than OTL. This will undoubtedly affect Norwegian resistance as, though I'm sure some units will continue to regard Quisling as illegitimate, many will lay down their arms and quit fighting for what seems like a lost cause. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to posit increased German gains during the initial phases of the Norwegian campaign.
With a far more legitimate collaborationist government, a far weaker anti-Nazi Norwegian force, and a less secure strategic situation, I'm tempted to think that the Allies will not only think twice about committing ground troops to Norway...I think they might just write Norway off altogether. Naval actions will continue, and as much of a Free Norway movement as possible will be evacuated, but I don't see the Allies committing nearly as many resources to Norway in TTL. The whole campaign is probably wrapped up by early may at the latest.
So, how does this affect things?
-No fall of Neville Chamberlain for one, the intervention in Norway was the final nail in the coffin. How will he react to the invasion of France? Dunkirk? Will Churchill get a chance to take over?
-Will the extra allied resources not committed to Norway in TTL affect the Battle of France?
-Assuming a WWII roughly analogous to OTL's how does the resistance take shape in Norway in TTL? Might the communists have more of a presence in TTL given the failings of the government/ a weaker Free Norway?
-Other thoughts?
One of the key moments of the Invasion of Norway was the [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dr%C3%B8bak_Sound]Battle of Drøbak Sound[/URL] in which the German taskforce assigned to land at Oslo was fired upon by Norwegian coastal fortifications resulting in the German heavy cruiser Blücher being sunk and the Lutzow being damaged as well as the rest of the taskforce being forced to land outside of Oslo.
Yet, had the commander of the Oscarborg fortress not been willing to defy government orders and fire upon the unknown flotilla, history could very well have been considerably different. For our POD let's assume that the Germans manage to sink the Norwegian patrol boat before it can fire off flares and that Oberst Birger Eriksen slips and is knocked unconscious around midnight April 8/9. I think these two POD's would effectively give the German taskforce enough leeway to slip past the guns of Oscarborg (paralyzed due to a lack of leadership) and land their troops in Oslo as originally intended.
Now had the Germans managed to do this it would have had some interesting ramifications. The German troops onboard the Blücher were tasked with capturing the Norwegian Royal Family, the Norwegian government, and the Norwegian Gold Reserves. Without the precious hours bought by the Oscarborg fortress in OTL, in TTL the Germans stand a good chance of scoring a major coup and capturing a good chunk of the Norwegian gold reserve along with the Royal Family and much of the government.
Assuming they succeed, I think this will change the Norwegian campaign significantly. First off, having been captured by the Germans the Norwegian government is going to be far more willing to negotiate in order to secure a lenient occupation. King Haakon will most likely resign in favour of his son (who was in favour of remaining in Norway in OTL to lessen the blow of the occupation), and Vikdun Quisling will be appointed to be head of the new Norwegian government with far more legitimacy than OTL. This will undoubtedly affect Norwegian resistance as, though I'm sure some units will continue to regard Quisling as illegitimate, many will lay down their arms and quit fighting for what seems like a lost cause. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to posit increased German gains during the initial phases of the Norwegian campaign.
With a far more legitimate collaborationist government, a far weaker anti-Nazi Norwegian force, and a less secure strategic situation, I'm tempted to think that the Allies will not only think twice about committing ground troops to Norway...I think they might just write Norway off altogether. Naval actions will continue, and as much of a Free Norway movement as possible will be evacuated, but I don't see the Allies committing nearly as many resources to Norway in TTL. The whole campaign is probably wrapped up by early may at the latest.
So, how does this affect things?
-No fall of Neville Chamberlain for one, the intervention in Norway was the final nail in the coffin. How will he react to the invasion of France? Dunkirk? Will Churchill get a chance to take over?
-Will the extra allied resources not committed to Norway in TTL affect the Battle of France?
-Assuming a WWII roughly analogous to OTL's how does the resistance take shape in Norway in TTL? Might the communists have more of a presence in TTL given the failings of the government/ a weaker Free Norway?
-Other thoughts?