Japhy
Banned
In February of 1855 the newly elected state legislature of Illinois met to elect the new United States Senator from their state for the coming term in Washington. The incumbent, James Shields (Notable to history for having been a General in the Mexican-American and American Civil Wars, having challenged Abraham Lincoln to a duel in their youths, and having been elected to be a United States Senator by three separate states) a Pro-Nebraska Democrat was generally seen as doomed, even by his fellow and political ally Stephen A. Douglas.
In the aftermath of the passage of the Kansas and Nebraska Act, Illinois has followed the trend of Northern states and seen the state government taken over by a varied collection of opposition parties. Know-Nothings, Anti-Nebraska Democrats, Whigs, Republicans, and Free-Soilers combined held a majority, while simultaneously being an inherently weak coalition.
In the midst of this messy example of what political realignments look like though, the opposition parties all forwarded their own suggestions for whom should be the man to use against Shields. Foremost among their potentials being Abraham Lincoln, who at the time was still a Whig but with a foot in the door of the newly formed Republicans. In preparation for presenting himself Lincoln had turned his law office into an unofficial campaign headquarters, was lobbying for himself and using his decades of political connections for good use, and resigned from the legislature to qualify. In the lead up to the vote Lincoln was sure of 26 votes for himself, needing only 51 to win the seat.
The problem being there were two other candidates running from the opposition parties, first being Chicago Tribune owner Charles H. Ray who was the man for the more radical Free Soil and Republican factions, with support from the Know-Nothings in addition. Ray would focus his campaign on attacking Lincoln, mostly for not being a true Anti-Slavery man (While Lincoln was running perhaps his most anti-slavery campaign of his political life before 1864) citing among other things Lincoln's Kentucky Birth and his in-laws the slave and plantation owning Todd's of that same state.
The third man being that of the weakest faction in the opposition, the Anti-Nebraska Democrats, Congressmen-elect Lyman Trumbull.
On the first vote in the Legislature Lincoln came incredibly close to winning outright. Of 100 votes cast, Lincoln managed 45 to Shield's 41, with Ray winning 9 and Trumbull a measly 5.
The failure on the first ballot would see Lincoln's previously secured pledges begin to fret and scatter, many to Trumbull based on the simple fact that while Trumbull had the fewest votes they were also the most partisan and unwilling to shift to vote for Whigs or Republicans. In a bid to win them back, Douglas would via telegraph drop Shields for Illinois Governor Joel Matteson who was popular and viewed as a Moderate on the issue of Slavery in the Territories.
The threat of Trumbull's growing support going back over to the Democrats being too much, Lincoln abandoned the race and threw his support behind Trumbull, the sudden shift proved too much for Ray's small gains and Trumbull secured nearly all the opposition votes and those of a few moderats of the Pro-Nebraska Democrats.
Lyman Trumbull would eventually drop his claims of being a Democrat, and become one of the more prominent members of the Republican party in the two decades that would follow, though his actual political loyalty to the ideas of the party would be proven in 1870 when he turned against his previous support to join the anti-Civil Rights Liberal Republicans.
So, the obvious what if, as offered in the title, what if Lincoln had been able to win on the first ballot? In 1855 the Democrats will still hold the Senate, but Lincoln will have six years worth of a national platform, and will be serving co-currently with his great rival. Does being more than a failed one term Congressmen hurt his chances in 1860 or help them? Any thoughts on what other effects there would be?
In the aftermath of the passage of the Kansas and Nebraska Act, Illinois has followed the trend of Northern states and seen the state government taken over by a varied collection of opposition parties. Know-Nothings, Anti-Nebraska Democrats, Whigs, Republicans, and Free-Soilers combined held a majority, while simultaneously being an inherently weak coalition.
In the midst of this messy example of what political realignments look like though, the opposition parties all forwarded their own suggestions for whom should be the man to use against Shields. Foremost among their potentials being Abraham Lincoln, who at the time was still a Whig but with a foot in the door of the newly formed Republicans. In preparation for presenting himself Lincoln had turned his law office into an unofficial campaign headquarters, was lobbying for himself and using his decades of political connections for good use, and resigned from the legislature to qualify. In the lead up to the vote Lincoln was sure of 26 votes for himself, needing only 51 to win the seat.
The problem being there were two other candidates running from the opposition parties, first being Chicago Tribune owner Charles H. Ray who was the man for the more radical Free Soil and Republican factions, with support from the Know-Nothings in addition. Ray would focus his campaign on attacking Lincoln, mostly for not being a true Anti-Slavery man (While Lincoln was running perhaps his most anti-slavery campaign of his political life before 1864) citing among other things Lincoln's Kentucky Birth and his in-laws the slave and plantation owning Todd's of that same state.
The third man being that of the weakest faction in the opposition, the Anti-Nebraska Democrats, Congressmen-elect Lyman Trumbull.
On the first vote in the Legislature Lincoln came incredibly close to winning outright. Of 100 votes cast, Lincoln managed 45 to Shield's 41, with Ray winning 9 and Trumbull a measly 5.
The failure on the first ballot would see Lincoln's previously secured pledges begin to fret and scatter, many to Trumbull based on the simple fact that while Trumbull had the fewest votes they were also the most partisan and unwilling to shift to vote for Whigs or Republicans. In a bid to win them back, Douglas would via telegraph drop Shields for Illinois Governor Joel Matteson who was popular and viewed as a Moderate on the issue of Slavery in the Territories.
The threat of Trumbull's growing support going back over to the Democrats being too much, Lincoln abandoned the race and threw his support behind Trumbull, the sudden shift proved too much for Ray's small gains and Trumbull secured nearly all the opposition votes and those of a few moderats of the Pro-Nebraska Democrats.
Lyman Trumbull would eventually drop his claims of being a Democrat, and become one of the more prominent members of the Republican party in the two decades that would follow, though his actual political loyalty to the ideas of the party would be proven in 1870 when he turned against his previous support to join the anti-Civil Rights Liberal Republicans.
So, the obvious what if, as offered in the title, what if Lincoln had been able to win on the first ballot? In 1855 the Democrats will still hold the Senate, but Lincoln will have six years worth of a national platform, and will be serving co-currently with his great rival. Does being more than a failed one term Congressmen hurt his chances in 1860 or help them? Any thoughts on what other effects there would be?
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