WI Historically Islam slows in Palestine / 1947: Palestinians are 65% Christian

[Cryptic]

Historically, Christians in Palestine were probably between 10-15% of the population in 1947

What if....

Either due to a longer Crusader presence, internal divisions in Islam, or simply a more steadfast rejection by locals in the 'Land of the Savior', Islam's historical expansion slowed in Palestine.

1947: Palestinians are 65% Christian. Nearly split 50/50 between Catholics of various flavors and Orthodox, with Orthodox having a slight majority.

How would this impact the creation of Israel? Will the British permit the initial partition if it puts Christians at risk? Will Israel be able to enforce its 'No Return" policies following the expulsion / flight of Palestinians?

France has a historical role as protector of Middle Eastern Christians? Will that lead to a French response regarding expulsions? After a moderate conversion rate of Palestinians to Evangelical Christianity, will US support be at the same level as familiarity increases amongst U.S. Evangelicals?

 

[RedSword12]

The butterfly effect makes one doubt there would even be a U.S. as we know it...

It's an interesting question but one better-suited to the ASB section.

 

[CalBear]

If Islamic expansion failed to this degree the entire Old World (at the very least) would be radically different. It would mean that the more distant lands (from Mecca & Medina) would be far more Christian than IOTL. There probably would never have been any Crusades.

 

[ramones1986]

The principal problem here is the location of the region itself, being surrounded by more powerful geopolitical entities (e.g. Egypt, Syria/Mesopotamia and, in this case, Arabia).

 

[Cryptic]

The principal problem here is the location of the region itself, being surrounded by more powerful geopolitical entities (e.g. Egypt, Syria/Mesopotamia and, in this case, Arabia).

Please note that the scenario does not require stopping Islamic expansion. Rather, the expansion still occurs. But.... it flows around Palestine (similar to modern Lebanon).

At the end of the day Islamic power, IOTL, did not end Christianity as a visible religion in many areas:

Lebanon retained a 50% Christian population until just recently. Likewise, though Egypt's Coptic population has not been accurately counted, it could be as high as 20%. The Syrian Christian population was probably close to 20% and the Iraqi what 10%?

Please note that the

It's an interesting question but one better-suited to the ASB section.

Given Lebanon's 50% Christian population (aided by mountains, but still a pretty good feat), I don't think a 65% Christian Palestine would be ASB.

But....Ok, drop the Palestinian Christian percentage to: 55% Christian 35% Muslim and 10% Jewish / other including Druze

 

[aaronupright]

Lebanon retained a 50% Christian population until just recently.

Lebanon was a gerrymandered enclave created out of Syria.

 

[Parma]

Palestinian Christian percentage to: 55% Christian 35% Muslim and 10% Jewish / other including Druze

Just to be clear, you mean British mandate Palestine I asume? And in this time it is some sort of leftover of a longer living Kingdom of Jerusalem, which in the end was subdued by the Ottomans? And despite Ottoman rule of several centuries still remained largely Christian?

 

[Cryptic]

Lebanon was a gerrymandered enclave created out of Syria.

At the end of the day, the area contained substantial number of Christians.

 

[Cryptic]

Just to be clear, you mean British mandate Palestine I asume? And in this time it is some sort of leftover of a longer living Kingdom of Jerusalem, which in the end was subdued by the Ottomans? And despite Ottoman rule of several centuries still remained largely Christian?

Yes. As a side note, however, that area that later became Lebanon also contained substantial number of Christians.

Ottoman rule had a religious preference, but that preference was not rigorously pursued. Instead, the Ottomans created the millet system. In the end, there were plenty of Christians in the Ottoman systems,

 

[RedSword12]

Given Lebanon's 50% Christian population (aided by mountains, but still a pretty good feat), I don't think a 65% Christian Palestine would be ASB.

But....Ok, drop the Palestinian Christian percentage to: 55% Christian 35% Muslim and 10% Jewish / other including Druze

It's not ASB itself, but the butterfly net implied by asking how this affects US support for Israel, etc., is pretty close.

 

[Eivind]

The greatest sin in alternate history: Forgetting the butterfly effect. It is pointless to talk about the recreation of Israel or assuming France has a similar role several hundred years after the POD.

 

[Cryptic]

It's not ASB itself, but the butterfly net implied by asking how this affects US support for Israel, etc., is pretty close.

Why is that approaching ASB? At the end of the day, humans find if far easier to tolerate, facilitate, or tacitly support negative action against people to whom the do not have a strong connection to.

Historically, most Americans have had little connection with Muslims. It was easy to think of them as the inherently foreign and inherently dangerous "other". Thus, it is easier for the United States to support and facilitate Israeli policies against the Palestinian Muslims. The fact that these polices also dispossess a small number of Christians of the Catholic / Orthodox sort can be glossed over.

But.... What if the majority in Palestine was Christian? Its now a lot harder to create an image of Palestinians as being inherently foreign and inherently dangerous. Would Catholic US politicians be so keen on funding Israel?

Have some of that Palestinian Christian majority converting to evangelical Christianity and establishing dozens of congregations (not just the one small historical Gazan congregation) and.... even American evangelical Christians are going to be dialing down their support of Israel.

Supporting the Second Coming via dis possessing Muslims is one thing. But dispossessing evangelical Christians in particular? Very different ball game- even when considering the Second Coming.

 

[RedSword12]

Why is that approaching ASB? At the end of the day, humans find if far easier to tolerate, facilitate, or tacitly support negative action against people to whom the do not have a strong connection to.

Historically, most Americans have had little connection with Muslims. It was easy to think of them as the inherently foreign and inherently dangerous "other". Thus, it is easier for the United States to support and facilitate Israeli policies against the Palestinian Muslims. The fact that these polices also dispossess a small number of Christians of the Catholic / Orthodox sort can be glossed over.

But.... What if the majority in Palestine was Christian? Its now a lot harder to create an image of Palestinians as being inherently foreign and inherently dangerous. Would Catholic US politicians be so keen on funding Israel?

Have some of that Palestinian Christian majority converting to evangelical Christianity and establishing dozens of congregations (not just the one small historical Gazan congregation) and.... even American evangelical Christians are going to be dialing down their support of Israel.

Supporting the Second Coming via dis possessing Muslims is one thing. But dispossessing evangelical Christians in particular? Very different ball game- even when considering the Second Coming.

Because you're assuming that over a thousand years of history go exactly the same if Palestine remains majority Christian.

 

[PhilKearny]

If Islamic expansion failed to this degree the entire Old World (at the very least) would be radically different. It would mean that the more distant lands (from Mecca & Medina) would be far more Christian than IOTL. There probably would never have been any Crusades.

I believe that this belongs in pre-1900. This forum, according to the introduction at the top, is for "General discussion about alternate history scenarios where the divergence from real history happens from 1900 AD onward."

 

[aaronupright]

At the end of the day, the area contained substantial number of Christians.

Give me good census data, an accurate map and a red marker and I will carve out minority majority areas pretty much anywhere you want.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Ahem. Addressing the OP question. I am assuming The increased Christian population occurs relatively recently, partially as a product of the Ottoman Milet system.

France has a historical role as protector of Middle Eastern Christians? Will that lead to a French response regarding expulsions? After a moderate conversion rate of Palestinians to Evangelical Christianity, will US support be at the same level as familiarity increases amongst U.S. Evangelicals?

In simple terms yes. There are many nuances, but the bottom line the 'native' Palestinian population including many more Christian means they have stronger allies among the western of Christian nations. This alone make the history since 1948, & earlier vis the Zionists unrecognizable to us in many way. I seriously doubt the Isralies/Zionists or whatever you want to call them will be able to execute population displacement on the same scale as OTL. I suspect the state of Israel as we know it does not even exist.

 

[Fries]

I seriously doubt the Isralies/Zionists or whatever you want to call them will be able to execute population displacement on the same scale as OTL. I suspect the state of Israel as we know it does not even exist.

There's a pretty high chance Zionism as an ideology doesn't exist. A big reason for Zionism taking off was the fact that it was seen as a civilizing mission to expand European civilization against uncivilized natives in the area: an outpost of "Europe against Asia", "civilization against barbarism".

There [in Palestine] we shall be a sector of the wall of Europe against Asia. We shall serve as the outpost of civilization against barbarism.

Theodore Herzl, 1896.

With Palestine being more Christian it's entirely likely that Europe sees Palestine as that European bulwark against Asia.

 

[Betaking]

It probably changes next to nothing, at best the british hope to group them into a greater lebanon type thing, but even then the zionists have ethnostate on the brain and there's a level of dispassion and utter ignorance on the part of most americans as to the religious makeup of that part of the world.

 

[Pelranius]

Would Palestinian Muslims be tempted to side with the Zionists?

How much of the Palestinian Christians are descended from non Arabs (i.e. Crusaders in a longer lasting Crusader state survival)? That could feed into a "Levant for the Semites" narrative that amusingly, would have a lot of resonance with Pan Arabs like Nasser.

 

[Cryptic]

Would Palestinian Muslims be tempted to side with the Zionists?

How much of the Palestinian Christians are descended from non Arabs (i.e. Crusaders in a longer lasting Crusader state survival)? That could feed into a "Levant for the Semites" narrative that amusingly, would have a lot of resonance with Pan Arabs like Nasser.

I could see a longer period of Crusader occupation leading to a Christian population that is viewed as inherently alien by Palestinian Muslims (despite being culturally and linguistically similar. I can also see a "Levant for the Semites" type view emerging.

But... I don't think it would lead to an alliance with arriving Zionists. At the end of the day, Jewish settlers would still be linguistically and culturally European. Likewise, their physical appearances would also be largely European- especially their leadership which was secular, thus more likely to have gentile admixture. So.... maybe Muslims view both Zionist settlers and local Christians as occupiers?

This forces local Christians to actually support some degree of Zionist settlement to bolster their own community? Some local Christian leaders then embrace a degree Zionist settlement as fellow Europeans who are bringing desperately needed European culture, technological skills, academic aptitudes and..... cash to ward off the encroaching Muslim hordes?

Israel is then founded with 60% Palestinian Christians, 35% Zionist settlers, 5% other and..... 100% European- even though most local Christians are not truly of European descent.