WI: Henri of Navarra dies during the War of the Three Henris
- Thread starter Yorel
- Start date
Bumping this.
So, what would be the consequences of Henri III of Navarra (OTL Henri IV of France) dying somewhere between 1585 and 1588 (the year Henri of Guise died)?
Henri III's new heir according to Salic Law is Cardinal Charles of Bourbon, the Ligue's first candidate. After him comes Prince Henri I of Condé, who died in 1588 OTL and left behind a posthumous son (Henri II of Condé) who would most likely be Henri III's heir in this scenario.
Regarding Henri of Navarra's possessions, they are likely to be split. What Henri of Navarra inherited from his father (Bourbon, Vendôme, etc...) will go to the Cardinal of Bourbon and later the Prince of Condé since it seems to work under Salic Law. However, the crown of Navarra and the Albret possessions will pass to Henri's younger sister Catherine, who would thus become Queen Catherine II of Navarra. She is staunchly protestant, still unmarried and, in case she were to die childless, her heir is Henri, Duke of Rohan and another staunch Protestant leader.
So how does that affect Henri III of France's reign? Does he still fight the Ligue as OTL? Is he still murdered? How does his succession go in this scenario?
So, what would be the consequences of Henri III of Navarra (OTL Henri IV of France) dying somewhere between 1585 and 1588 (the year Henri of Guise died)?
Henri III's new heir according to Salic Law is Cardinal Charles of Bourbon, the Ligue's first candidate. After him comes Prince Henri I of Condé, who died in 1588 OTL and left behind a posthumous son (Henri II of Condé) who would most likely be Henri III's heir in this scenario.
Regarding Henri of Navarra's possessions, they are likely to be split. What Henri of Navarra inherited from his father (Bourbon, Vendôme, etc...) will go to the Cardinal of Bourbon and later the Prince of Condé since it seems to work under Salic Law. However, the crown of Navarra and the Albret possessions will pass to Henri's younger sister Catherine, who would thus become Queen Catherine II of Navarra. She is staunchly protestant, still unmarried and, in case she were to die childless, her heir is Henri, Duke of Rohan and another staunch Protestant leader.
So how does that affect Henri III of France's reign? Does he still fight the Ligue as OTL? Is he still murdered? How does his succession go in this scenario?
I was thinking of Henri III marrying and siring children but isn't it possible for him to sire children though.
I do think Henri III of France could sire children. He has no recorded bastards, but it was most commonly admitted that it wasn't him but his wife (Louise de Lorraine) that was sterile. And apparently, he did made her pregnant: it is just that the first pregnancy ended in a miscarriage of horrible consequences (from what I read at least).kasumigenx said:
There are few chances he would divorce Louise though: he was deeply in love with her.
I think he needs to outlive Louise for him to sire heirs if that is the case.
The effect in Navarre will be pretty interesting. Catherine was a very intelligent woman and badly wasted in marriage to the Duke of Lorraine. I think Henri III would still fight the league as he wasn't very keen on the Guises and the power they had, especially in Paris. Condé would probably fight alongside him, and I can see him stretching out the hand of friendship to Catherine. Pity it's 1588 and Alençon is already dead, as he would've made a good match for her. Who might she consider as a husband: one of her Bourbon cousins like the Count of Soissons?
I think Catherine could marry Henri III if Louise of Lorraine dies earlier..I think Margaret of Valois could marry Henry I, Duke of Guise since she loves him..
I think it depends on when exactly Henry of Navarre dies. If it happens after the Treaty of Joinville then Henry III will still want to break the power of the League by trying to be the commander of the Catholics. With a clear Catholic successor he doesn't need to appeal that much for the Protestants. However, he must ensure that Cardinal becomes a viable heir, and it means that he must abbandon the clergy and sire a son. In the other hand, I doubt the king would allow it to happen during his lifetime.
Regarding his assassination, it happened as revenge for the killing of Henry de Guise, so it depends on whether the Guises continue to oppose the king or not. Considering how they were IOTL, I guess they would.
The same as IOTL: almost none.
Catherine had several suitors considered to her IOTL: Alençon, the duke of Lorraine, the duke of Savoy, Henry of Condé, the prince of Anhalt, even James VI of Scotland. But the only one she showed interest in (and even fell in love for) was Charles of Bourbon-Soissons. Now that she is Queen of Navarre she might decide her husband by her own, and probably would choose him. However, by 1585 he was among the members of the Catholic League, so I'm not sure if it would be possible.
If she marries James I of Britain, Gascony will be on personal union with England again but this time with Navarre and Scotland.
I think its almost a given that marriage to James VI would result in the loss of both her tiny kingdom and French estates.
The negotiations with Scotland were short. She didn't have the dowry the Scots wanted, neither James had interest in sending military help to her brother. With Henry IV dead, it becomes even less interesting.
Gonzaga has a good point about timing. But it we go with the 1585-1588 window Yorel mentioned that's safely after the Treaty of Joinville so the Guises have already gotten into bed with Spain. So Henry III is likely to try to cultivate a suitable heir among the Bourbons. There is a narrow window 85-86 before the Prince of Conde remarries. I wonder if he could be convinced to marry a Catholic in order to make him a more acceptable heir to Henry III and the Cardinal of Bourbon.
With Bourbon already 65+ Henry has to realistically consider that Conde would inherit either from Bourbon or directly from Henry. But I suspect Conde would be more intransigent that Henry of Navarre so is it possible that he refuses to convert and/or marry a Catholic or make the necessary concessions to secure broad based support for his right to succeed. In some circles I could see how Conde would still be preferable to the Guises but would the majority of France accept a protestant as King, especially if he insists on raising his children in his faith? So if Henry III isn't assassinated and outlives Bourbon then its like OTL with a protestant as heir accept that Conde is arguably more devoutly protestant than Henry of Navarre. So it seems like it would just drag out the instability and religious conflict in France, unless of course by some miracle the the Cardinal of Bourbon marries and begets a son before he dies.
It seems like Henry IV was largely responsible for winning over moderates like Conti and Soissons so ironically they might side against their less amenable borther/half brother Conde. So could one of them be selected as heir instead of Conde even if it meant breaking Salic law? Perhaps some kind of coda to Salic law that states that while succession is within the male line protestants are barred? Sort of like a French Catholic equivalent to the British Act of Settlement. It seems conceivable since France is the eldest daughter of church, her Kings are anointed by God (via the Sainte Ampoule in Reims) that they could claim by tradition that the most Christian King of France must be a Catholic. If Henry III lives long enough to break the power of the Guises and a Catholic independent of the them emmerges this could offer a reasonable solution.
I don't think the Guises or the Catholic league ever framed it quite like this since they were still angling to succeed the Cardinal of Bourbon. And Conti and Soissons were not willing to advance their claims in favor of Henry of Navarre who proved willing to compromise with the Catholics. But under different circumstances maybe it offers a way out of the religious quagmire. Its not without problems, however. Conti has no children by his first wife and she lives until 1601 and Soissons may end up marrying the protestant Catherine of Navarre. And Conde may still claim the throne by force so I suppose its not a perfect solution.
As for Henry of Navarre's possessions the Cardinal of Bourbon would only receive Vendome, since Bourbon has long since fallen to the crown. But Catherine will have Navarre and all the Albret lands in the south of France so she could be a powerful figure in her own right. If she married Conde's brother Soissons they could be a powerful couple, her a protestant sovereign and he next in line to the throne after Conde and Conti. Though I wonder how that relationship would work out with Soissons being Catholic, albeit moderate, the big issue would likely be the religion of their children. If Catherine wins out it would only complicate the religious situation in France because yet another line of the Royal blood is now protestant.
With Bourbon already 65+ Henry has to realistically consider that Conde would inherit either from Bourbon or directly from Henry. But I suspect Conde would be more intransigent that Henry of Navarre so is it possible that he refuses to convert and/or marry a Catholic or make the necessary concessions to secure broad based support for his right to succeed. In some circles I could see how Conde would still be preferable to the Guises but would the majority of France accept a protestant as King, especially if he insists on raising his children in his faith? So if Henry III isn't assassinated and outlives Bourbon then its like OTL with a protestant as heir accept that Conde is arguably more devoutly protestant than Henry of Navarre. So it seems like it would just drag out the instability and religious conflict in France, unless of course by some miracle the the Cardinal of Bourbon marries and begets a son before he dies.
It seems like Henry IV was largely responsible for winning over moderates like Conti and Soissons so ironically they might side against their less amenable borther/half brother Conde. So could one of them be selected as heir instead of Conde even if it meant breaking Salic law? Perhaps some kind of coda to Salic law that states that while succession is within the male line protestants are barred? Sort of like a French Catholic equivalent to the British Act of Settlement. It seems conceivable since France is the eldest daughter of church, her Kings are anointed by God (via the Sainte Ampoule in Reims) that they could claim by tradition that the most Christian King of France must be a Catholic. If Henry III lives long enough to break the power of the Guises and a Catholic independent of the them emmerges this could offer a reasonable solution.
I don't think the Guises or the Catholic league ever framed it quite like this since they were still angling to succeed the Cardinal of Bourbon. And Conti and Soissons were not willing to advance their claims in favor of Henry of Navarre who proved willing to compromise with the Catholics. But under different circumstances maybe it offers a way out of the religious quagmire. Its not without problems, however. Conti has no children by his first wife and she lives until 1601 and Soissons may end up marrying the protestant Catherine of Navarre. And Conde may still claim the throne by force so I suppose its not a perfect solution.
As for Henry of Navarre's possessions the Cardinal of Bourbon would only receive Vendome, since Bourbon has long since fallen to the crown. But Catherine will have Navarre and all the Albret lands in the south of France so she could be a powerful figure in her own right. If she married Conde's brother Soissons they could be a powerful couple, her a protestant sovereign and he next in line to the throne after Conde and Conti. Though I wonder how that relationship would work out with Soissons being Catholic, albeit moderate, the big issue would likely be the religion of their children. If Catherine wins out it would only complicate the religious situation in France because yet another line of the Royal blood is now protestant.
Conde was the leader of the most fanatical Huguenots, to the point of becoming a embarrassment to Henry of Navarre. IOTL he married a Catholic (his second wife Charlotte de La Tremoille) but she needed to convert to Protestantism in order to marry him - that probably shows how uncompromising he was. But, of course, "Paris is worth a mess", and I'm not sure if he wouldn't accept better the idea of becoming Catholic if the throne of France would be more easily conquered by this way.
Would Henri III have the strength to suppress the Guise and the League?Gonzaga said:
What you suggest was the original plan of the Catholic Ligue: to them, the King of France had to be Catholic. This the reason why they first supported the candidacy of Charles, Cardinal of Bourbon, who was second-in-line for the throne. Without Henri of Navarra, they would probably still go with that plan since that only leaves Condé as a potential Protestant successor: I could see the Ligue eventually support Francis of Conti out of the same logic they had supported the Cardinal of Bourbon. Of course, that doesn't mean the most radical elements would try to go with the solution of abrogating Salic Law.Vitruvius said:
Charles seems to have left the League shortly after he joined it and joined forces with the Royal party. In OTL, he was fighting the Ligue by 1587. That could mean that he is a moderate Catholic, so he could be more tolerant to Catherine's Protestantism than anyone else.Vitruvius said:
The problem is that Catherine does seem like a zealous Protestant and I'm not sure what the results would be. Charles of Soissons could try to have his children raised as Catholics but I doubt Catherine would agree. Of course, it will depend on how strong Catherine's feeling for Charles of Soissons are. It could also depend on their political views and interests: after all, if they can't count on one of their son inheriting the French throne as a Protestant, they could raise him up as a Catholic.
Besides Charles of Soissons, was there any other possible suitors for Catherine, since she would be Catherine II of Navarra in this scenario?
Alternatively, Catherine could remain unmarried as per OTL. In that scenario, the next-in-line for the throne of Navarra is Henri, Duke of Rohan, another Protestant leader. How would that play out?
There is something that could be convenient in this scenario: Henri I of Condé died in 1588 OTL. He left a posthumous son who became Henri II of Condé and was raised as a Catholic by his cousin Henri IV. Of course, that Prince of Condé was rather neglected by Henri IV who neglected him and married him to one of his mistresses (Charlotte of Montmorency). Another problem was that Henri II of Condé was homosexual, even if he did have three sons by Charlotte of Montmorency.Gonzaga said:
Anyway, we could have a similar situation here if Henri I of Condé still dies on schedule, except that his posthumous son would be raised as a Catholic by Henri III of France instead of Henri IV. We would probably end up with a completely different character from OTL. Plus, I don't know why, but I have the image of Henri III of France and Louise de Lorraine raising Henri II of Condé as if he was their own son because they can't have children...
I understand that the Catholic League wanted to skip over Henry of Navarre because he was protestant but I always had the impression -perhaps mistaken- that this was more exceptional circumstances than a general rule. In other words it seems like the conservative Catholics never sought to codify as general policy/succession law that all protestants were always barred from the throne and therefore explicitly excluded from the line of succession, but that said succession would otherwise follow traditional salic law. If we consider who was favored to succeed Bourbon it seems to bear this out. Certainly there were small numbers of Catholics who looked to Conti but there were also elements who looked to Guise or to Isabella Clara Eugenia. If it were established as the law of the land so to speak then Conti would be the clear successor (at least to Catholics) in a way he wasn't OTL.
I suppose this has to do with how Henry IV came to power OTL. His ability to compromise on religious issues largely diffused the situation so an amendment to the succession law 'for all time' was not necessary. And then of course all the relevant people became Catholic within a generation so it became a moot point. But theoretically it was still legally possible for a protestant to succeed through the rest of the ancien regime it was just never an issue because it was, practically speaking, impossible. But if its Conde instead of Henry, someone more militantly protestant, such radical action to permanently alter a fundamental law of the kingdom may be taken to close the door on the possibility of a protestant ever succeeding to the French crown. Such forwarding looking action may be more apropos if the succession issue drags on for longer with a string of possible protestant successors constantly popping up.
Of course I think the other necessary component is a strong monarch who can arrange a consensus on what any new succession plan would be. Otherwise the anti-protestant Catholics may still splinter between those who support Conti and those who want to scrap the old salic law all together. Furthermore the death of Conde in '88 as you mentioned would once again make the issue moot because his posthumous son could simply be raised Catholic (assuming he still makes the same marriage as OTL).
Ultimately I would expect this succession law issue would be tied up in the final religious settlement. In a situation where Catholics are triumphant in a more protracted struggle the succession law may be changed to bar protestants and protestants in France may be suppressed/harassed or otherwise have their rights curtailed. But if compromise is reached with the protestants or the succession resolves itself peacefully (the Catholic Conde jr scenario) and some degree of toleration is agreed to then the succession issue may be less important and the law left alone. So I think the way Henry III's successor comes to power, what legal mechanism gives him claim to the throne, will dictate to a certain extent his policy on religion.