Had a military coup taken place, it is unlikely that (i) a civilian leader would have been appointed as Prime Minister and (ii) that an early General Election would have taken place. Part of the reason for intervening was the belief that the UK Government had failed to rein in the trade unions and that industrial action was proving costly to the nation, and that it was failing in the war against terrorism in Northern Ireland.
It is more likely that a military junta would have ruled for about 4-5 years and would have only ceded control to a civilian administration once it was satisfied that an elected Government could robustly face the challenges it would encounter. During the course of the junta's rule, the following policies might be implemented:-
- Trade unions are either banned outright or prohibited from calling strikes;
- Protests and demonstrations are banned;
- Greater censorship of the media, particularly on issues of security and national; interest;
- Military action against the IRA is escalated;
- People classified as "subversive" (i.e. trade union leaders, student activists, members of Marxist political organisations like the Communist Party, International Socialists, the International Marxist Group and the Workers Revolutionary Party, separatist organisations i.e. the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and organisations with terrorist links like Sinn Fein) will be arrested and interned;
- The death penalty is restored for murder and, specifically, terrorist murder; and
- The police will be armed and will have support from the armed forces on maintaining public order and countering terrorism.
It is unlikely that Harold Wilson would have been put on trial. The junta would have been aware that Wilson was respected abroad and that his imprisonment or execution would have had damaging implications for British interests. More likely that he would be quietly retired from public life.
The return to civilian rule would have been on terms dictated by the military junta. Probable key features are:-
- The Labour Party would be banned from receiving funding from the trade unions;
- Political parties advocating the break up of the United Kingdom would be prohibited from standing for Parliament;
- The police, armed forces and security services would be indemnified from prosecution for claimed human rights violations carried out during the junta's rule; and
- The minimum voting age would have been raised to 21.
Overseas reaction
The USA would be favourable towards a military coup. The United Kingdom was a key overseas partner and they could not risk it becoming ungovernable or facing a revolution.
Western Europe would have given guarded support. Their governments were concerned that the United Kingdom was becoming ungovernable and that the contagion could affect their own countries. But they would have been concerned about the loss of human rights and the risk of refugees from the United Kingdom swarming into their own countries. However, two countries would have diverged from this view:-
- Spain would have supported the coup. General Franco was still alive and head of state.
- The Republic of Ireland would have been very concerned about the coup. It would have been viewed as a move to cement Unionist rule in Northern Ireland in perpetuity.
The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact would have been hostile. Soviet propaganda would have presented the coup as evidence that capitalism was failing and was in its death throes.
Reaction from the Commonwealth would have been mixed. Australia, Canada and New Zealand would have broadly supported the coup, although expressing concerns about the possible loss of human rights. The "new" Commonwealth (i.e. Africa, Asia and the Caribbean) would have been more concerned because of the potential implications for immigration.
Most of the Middle East (the notable exceptions being Libya and Syria who were Soviet allies) would have given guarded support to the coup. Their main concerns would have been immigration being tightened up and the Government taking tit-for-tat measures to punish those countries who hiked oil prices after the Yom Kippur War.
Long-term implications for British politics
It would have been a mistake to assume that a coup would have been universally unpopular. There are many people who would have welcomed the smack of firm government, something that was proved during Mrs Thatcher's administrations.
However, there would be a potential legacy of bitterness, particularly if the police, army and security forces used heavy-handed tactics against people considered to be subversive. Demands for compensation and reparation, similar to those happening in Northern Ireland, would be made.
There is the question whether the military would intervene again if they felt that the country's interests were at risk. One issue is whether they would consider the EU as a threat because many powers previously vested in the UK Government were handed over to the EU.
