WI: Decisive Union Victory at Perryville?

[Fearless Leader]

Pretty much every scholarly assessment of the Battle of Perryville that I've read states that though Bragg managed to score a tactical victory, he narrowly escaped a decisive defeat that could have happened had the other 2 corps of the Army of the Ohio been more actively engaged.

With this in mind, I propose a pair of PODs:

POD #1: Jefferson Davis misses when he tries to shoot William "Bull" Nelson in Louisville on September 28th, 1862. Davis is sidelined for the campaign as per OTL, but Nelson remains a corps commander in Buell's army and Gilbert is not promoted.

POD #2: While riding with Nelson's III Corps, Buell finds some stragglers from the 75th Illinois Infantry cleaning out a private garden late in the afternoon of October 7th. Buell begins to berate the soldiers and after boring down on one particular soldier for using precious water from his canteen to wipe his face, the soldier in question stands up and grabs the bridle of Buell's horse jerking it hard causing the beast to fall backward with Buell onboard. In OTL, Buell was bruised pretty badly and was unable to ride or walk the next day which prevented his participation in the battle. In TTL there's a cloud of dust and the infantrymen find to mixed shock and relief that Buell's neck was broken during the fall and though his horse was fine the leader of the Army of the Ohio lay dead.

Buell's death on the afternoon of October 7th means that the command of the Army falls to George Henry Thomas. Thomas had been relegated to second in command of Buell's army and was with Crittenden's corps. In OTL he would sit out the Battle of Perryville for reasons that are not fully understood to this day. In TTL Thomas finds himself thrust into the very position he refused only days before ostensibly out of a sense of personal honour and loyalty. Likely, the meticulous side of Thomas was uncomfortable with the poor level of preparation for the campaign and wanted to be given a chance to plan and execute a campaign from the beginning rather than take over. In OTL this decision resulted in Lincoln replacing Buell with Rosecrans, in TTL Thomas gets another chance.

Thomas is going to take a while to get his bearings, so I don't see a lot changing during the first hours of the Battle of Perryville. The biggest difference is that Thomas is going to be far more active than Buell was in OTL and he's going to have more confidence from his subordinates and a better relationship. Without Thomas to run interference for Buell, Crittenden probably moves his corps a bit more aggressively during the night of Oct 7 / the morning of Oct 8 and is likely slightly closer to Perryville in TTL when the battle actually occurs.

Unlike Buell who was recovering from his fall a few miles away from the front in OTL, having long luxurious dinners with his corps commanders and was fooled by an acoustic shadow into thinking that the Battle was merely Sheridan wasting ammunition, Thomas will likely have a far better understanding of what's happening far earlier. I'm fairly certain that even taking into account Thomas' cautious and meticulous nature and the poor state of his army's supplies, when he figures out that Bragg has engaged the entire Army of the Ohio with only a portion of the Army of the Mississippi, Thomas is going to spring into action and commit both the II and III Corps to the battle.

I imagine that the planned attack looks something like what was considered at the end of the Battle of Perryville in OTL with III Corps flanking the Confederate Army and II Corps marching through Perryville and up the Harrodsburg Pike to completely cut off the Confederate Army's main avenue of retreat. Interestingly enough, Bragg's HQ, Crawford House was right along the Harrodsburg Pike potentially putting him at risk.

While I don't think Bragg's army would be completely destroyed during the battle in TTL, I do think that it would be a decisive defeat that would effectively eliminate the involved Confederate forces' combat effectiveness for months. This defeat and its ramifications would completely change the course of the Civil War IMO. With Bragg's army retreating north, there's nothing between Thomas and the main Confederate logistics hub at Camp Dan Robinson. I'd wager that in TTL Thomas sends whatever cavalry forces he has to secure it ASAP to improve his supply situation. Having won the Battle of Perryville and seized the Confederate supplies, Thomas' army also stands in between Kirby Smith's forces and the route they took in OTL to retreat back to Tennessee, Thomas may be able to force another engagement with Kirby Smith shortly after Perryville. Even if Kirby Smith avoids engaging Thomas, the loss of supplies is going to put his forces under severe logistical strain as they march back to Kentucky. I think it's fair to say that in TTL the Confederate troops retreating from Kentucky in TTL are going to be in shambles.

Thomas is likely going to be something of a celebrity for the decisive defeat of Bragg. Perryville may just end up allowing the GOP to hold the house in the 1862 midterms. The shine on his victory will likely be tempered a bit by his failure to pursue the Confederates and retake Eastern Tennessee in the winter of 1862. IMO Thomas likely follows the same path Rosecrans did in OTL and moves the Army by rail back to Nashville or Murfreesboro and winters there. He then uses the goodwill from Perryville to fundamentally reform the Army of the Ohio and prepare for a campaign in the spring of 1863 to take Chatanooga. He does this due to his focus on logistics and meticulous personality. While an early advance on Knoxville and Chatanooga would be possible, Thomas preference would be for a more deliberate campaign with fewer casualties and better logistics.

I'd really like input on how the Confederacy and the rest of the Union reacts to this alt-Perryville.

-Assuming Bragg survives, does he maintain command of the AoT? Or is he removed and replaced with someone to keep the seat warm until Johnston recovers? If so who?

-How does the Confederacy react to the effective destruction of one of their major formations? Obviously, troops have to be moved to plug the hole but where do they come from? I was thinking that a good chunk of the Army of Western Tennessee is transferred to shore up the survivors of the Kentucky campaign. Then again, how would Davis react? Would he be comfortable with leaving the AoT in such a dilapidated state in order to ensure that Vicksburg is held? Does he force Lee to part with a chunk of the ANV instead?

-How does Halleck respond to this victory? Does he order Grant to take Vicksburg in TTL or does he send an army after Chatanooga right away to take advantage of the defeat? I'm leaning towards the former and I do wonder what it would look like if Van Dorn is too busy reinforcing Chatanooga to destroy Grants supplies at Holly Springs.

-What happens to Rosecrans in TTL?

-How does Thomas' career develop without the resentment caused by being passed over for Rosecrans?

I think it's fairly obvious where this TL's heading in the long term. The Confederate rout at Perryville and the earlier emergence of Thomas are going to have a profoundly negative effect on the Confederacy and the Civil War is going to end earlier than OTL. I do have some longer-term questions though:

-Does a Confederate defeat at Perryville alter the state trajectory of Kentucky? In TTL, Bragg's invasion is going to likely be seen in a very negative light. Instead of retreating in something resembling good order, the Confederates are going to be seen running back to Tennessee starving and with their tails tucked between their legs. I'm having a harder time seeing Kentucky being dominated by Confederate veterans in TTL. Am I missing something?

 

[hzn5pk]

A problem with Union strategy in 1862 and 1863 was how to keep pressure on the Confederates. Hopefully, Thomas would not allow the Confederates to regroup in Tennessee.

The second problem that the various Union armies had were to coordinate advances to keep the pressure on.

East Tennessee would be good, but the real prize would have been Chatanooga while Grant took Vickburg. If you want to end the war sooner, both of these objectives have to fall sooner early 1863. A second good possibility is for Thomas to keep pressuring, to keep hammering at the confederate army until it is rendered useless, then sweep to Chatanooga and then Atlanta.

 

[Anaxagoras]

A very interesting and well thought-out TL.

It is October, of course, and there are only a few weeks of good weather remaining before the armies go into winter quarters, so even with this victory it will be difficult for the Union to push the front lines in Tennessee much farther forward than they did IOTL.

Bragg would certainly be out. He was almost ousted for his failure in Kentucky IOTL, so I cannot see how he survives this, especially as it predates the real rancor of the AoT high command that caused President Davis to respond so stubbornly. Command would fall to William Hardee, whose commission as a lieutenant general predated that of Leonidas Polk by one day. This is good news for the Confederacy, because Hardee was a tough and competent soldier who would have worked his heart out to get the army back into fighting condition. And he was far and away a superior commander to Bragg.

The bad news for the Confederacy is that Thomas is now in command of the Army of the Cumberland, which will go forward into the next campaign with a much stronger morale. Thomas will be careful and cautious, of course, but then so was Rosecrans IOTL, not advancing until June. Considering the shambles of Kentucky ITTL, I would expect the AoT to fall victim to the superior numbers and superior generalship of Thomas, despite the fact that they are going to be led by Hardee rather than Bragg.

 

[Fearless Leader]

A problem with Union strategy in 1862 and 1863 was how to keep pressure on the Confederates. Hopefully, Thomas would not allow the Confederates to regroup in Tennessee.

The second problem that the various Union armies had were to coordinate advances to keep the pressure on.

East Tennessee would be good, but the real prize would have been Chatanooga while Grant took Vickburg. If you want to end the war sooner, both of these objectives have to fall sooner early 1863. A second good possibility is for Thomas to keep pressuring, to keep hammering at the confederate army until it is rendered useless, then sweep to Chatanooga and then Atlanta.

I think Thomas doing anything other than allowing the Confederates to regroup in Tennessee is unrealistic given his character and OTL performance. I'm not out to make him a "Gary Tzu", or at least any more of one than he was in OTL. That being said, looking at the OTL aftermath of Perryville and the roads in Kentucky, Thomas may be able to score an even more decisive victory than I initially thought if he takes the primary Confederate supply depot at Camp Dick Robinson following TTL's Battle of Perryville. I'm beginning to see this as incredibly likely for the following reasons:

• One of Thomas' early commands was at Camp Dick Robinson, he knows the lay of the land and it's strategic position.
• Thomas in OTL advocated sending troops to Camp Dick Robinson almost immediately after the Battle, Buell hesitated and by the time the Union cavalry arrived, the Confederates had already taken everything they could and set fire to the rest.
• One of Thomas' main concerns about taking over the army from Buell when it was offered to him was its poor supply situation. Given the first two points, I think Thomas would attempt to kill two birds with one stone and improve his own supply situation while hammering the Confederates'. Further giving him the incentive to do this is the fact that in TTL, Bragg's likely going to have to retreat North which will open up a clear shot for Thomas' cavalry to seize Camp Dick Robinson.

IMO Thomas is going to send II Corps' cavalry under Ed McCook to secure Camp Dick Robinson ASAP, perhaps even on the night of the 8th following the battle. This coupled with the position of Bragg's army gives them the advantage even assuming that the Army of the Mississippi reacts instantly and makes a beeline there themselves instead of following their OTL course and toying with the idea of fighting the Union again. Though cautious, Thomas did show a willingness to take risks in OTL if it meant securing a decisive victory. I think that this situation would qualify and I think that instead of resting and regrouping Thomas pushes his army forward to back up McCook and secure the Confederate supplies. IMO this probably is enough to cause Bragg/Kirby Smith to retreat again, perhaps after a brief skirmish.

Now without their supplies, the Army of the Mississippi is in a seriously bad position. Kirby Smith's detachment had just been forced to retreat due to poor logistics and Bragg's command has just been routed at Perryville. Thomas' army meanwhile stands between them and their best route of escape. While I think in TTL the Army of the Mississippi will be able to evade Thomas due to having superior cavalry and Thomas' own caution, they're going to be headed back to Tennessee on even worse roads with fewer supplies and fewer opportunities to forage. Perryville in TTL's going to be a disaster for the Confederates but it's going to pale in comparison to TTL's retreat from Kentucky as hunger, disease, and desertion take their toll. In terms of an OTL analog, I'm thinking something along the lines of what happened to the AoT after retreating from Nashville.

A very interesting and well thought-out TL.

It is October, of course, and there are only a few weeks of good weather remaining before the armies go into winter quarters, so even with this victory it will be difficult for the Union to push the front lines in Tennessee much farther forward than they did IOTL.

Bragg would certainly be out. He was almost ousted for his failure in Kentucky IOTL, so I cannot see how he survives this, especially as it predates the real rancor of the AoT high command that caused President Davis to respond so stubbornly. Command would fall to William Hardee, whose commission as a lieutenant general predated that of Leonidas Polk by one day. This is good news for the Confederacy, because Hardee was a tough and competent soldier who would have worked his heart out to get the army back into fighting condition. And he was far and away a superior commander to Bragg.

The bad news for the Confederacy is that Thomas is now in command of the Army of the Cumberland, which will go forward into the next campaign with a much stronger morale. Thomas will be careful and cautious, of course, but then so was Rosecrans IOTL, not advancing until June. Considering the shambles of Kentucky ITTL, I would expect the AoT to fall victim to the superior numbers and superior generalship of Thomas, despite the fact that they are going to be led by Hardee rather than Bragg.

If Hardee does take over from Bragg in TTL, does Johnston feel the same about replacing him when he's brought back on November 24th, 1862? If the majority of the effectives from TTL's AoT are comprised of troops that in OTL were fighting around Corinth would Hardee have enough credibility?

As for the weather, 1862 was by all accounts a dry year and the weather in OTL was good enough to allow campaigning up until January 1863. But as far as Thomas and the Army of the Ohio are concerned they're not going to resume campaigning until Spring 1863. Unlike Rosecrans, Thomas is going to have a HUGE victory to hang his hat on and buy himself enough time to make adequate reforms and preparations (much to the consternation of Lincoln and Johnson).

That being said I think Grant's initial overland campaign to take Vicksburg might have a different result in TTL. I fail to see how the near destruction of the Army of the Mississippi at Perryville won't cause something of a panic for the Confederates. Lee proved to be more than capable of holding on to his forces at this point in time so I doubt that troops are pried from the ANV just yet. I think that the Army of the Western Mississippi is split again, with Van Dorn taking half to protect Chatanooga and Sterling Price keeping his half and protecting Vicksburg as per OTL. Without Van Dorn to raid Grant's supplies, I think he's able to march south and back up Sherman which will cause even more problems for the CSA.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Another thought's crossed my mind with potentially interesting ramifications:

With Thomas firmly in command of the Army of the Cumberland, what happens to Rosecrans?

IMO Rosecran's was destined to some kind of high command position in 1862/63 due to his relative military skill, Catholicism, and Democratic Party membership. Based off the correspondence we have right before he was asked to replace Buell in OTL, we can see that keeping him under Grant would also a problem. As far as I can see there are a couple places they can put him.

1. Rosecrans replaces Butler in New Orleans as the new commander for the Army of the Gulf
PROS: Rosecrans is a Democrat like Butler. Rosecrans is a Catholic. Rosecrans' engineering background might prove extremely useful given the challenges facing the Union in New Orleans.

CONS: The Army of the Gulf is a very political post, and Lincoln was set on using Louisiana as an experiment for his version of Reconstruction. Also, most of the troops for the Army of the Gulf are coming from New York and New England. I'm not sure if these factors outweigh the above ones and lead Lincoln to go with Rosecrans over Banks in TTL.

POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS: Undoubtedly, Rosecrans does a better job commanding the Army of the Gulf than Banks did. While he probably will struggle with the political side of things, particularly due to his views on freed slaves, the Army of the Gulf probably takes Port Hudson much earlier than OTL due to Rosecrans superior management of logistics, and engineering talent (he designed new pontoon bridges for the Union Army in OTL). I'd also wager that he'll reorganize the Army of the Gulf's cavalry along similar lines to what he did in the Army of the Cumberland. Union forces also likely make more progress in Texas and Eastern Louisiana.

2. Rosecrans remains with Grant until March 1863 when he replaces Horatio Wright instead of Burnside as the head of the Department of the Ohio.

PROS: Rosecrans is a no-brainer for the position and would do extremely well due to both his skills and political connections.

CONS: Grant and co. are put in a difficult situation with Rosecrans.

POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS: Grant might appoint Rosecrans to be 2nd in command and deal with him by "kicking him upstairs". This could have a positive ramification on the Central Mississippi Overland campaign as I can't see Rosecrans being okay with having Robert Murphy guarding the key supply depot at Holly Springs given the fact that Murphy had been put in a similar position during the Battle of Iuka and abandoned his depot under Confederate pressure. Following his arrival in Ohio Rosecrans probably performs similarly to Burnside and advances into Eastern Tennessee. Burnside meanwhile would be freed up, perhaps he's given command of X Corps and the Department of the South leading to a better Union performance around Charleston?

Any other possibilities that I missed? Both seem equally interesting to me for different reasons. I'm really not sure which is more likely.

 

[River of Death]

Another thought's crossed my mind with potentially interesting ramifications:

With Thomas firmly in command of the Army of the Cumberland, what happens to Rosecrans?

This is an excellent question. I suspect you will know more details than most, based on the two scenarios you suggested. A 3rd possibility sprung to my mind - I don't know if it would work out with seniority or with other political concerns, so feel free to shoot it down:

3. Rosecrans replaces McClellan commanding the Army of the Potomac.

PROS: By October/November 1862 or so, McClellan has contributed as much to the AotP as he ever will, viz a viz organization and training, and getting some good people into mid-level command spots (corps commanders still requiring some overhaul to reach their 1863-levels of competency). Putting Rosecrans here avoids putting Burnside here and so butterflies away Fredericksburg, at least as OTL knows it. Much of Rosecrans' later clashes with the government came from (as he saw it) lack of supplies in a timely manner or in the quantity or quality he viewed necessary - here this won't be a problem as the AotP was the best-equipped and best-supplied of the Union armies. Rosecrans showed very solid skill in preparing an army to fight, in terms of both equipment and morale. Once he did launch an offensive he proved to have an overall solid track record, and imagination in creating plans - this makes him *at least* as good for the AotP as, say, Hooker. Plus he's faced Lee once already, in West Virginia in 1861, and won.

CONS: The AotP is *the biggest* political plum in the entire army system. Rosecrans' background may be an overall negative in comparison to options 1 or 2. For my part, IDK the relative seniorities of Rosecrans and the AotP corps commanders - this may not be a deal-breaker as Rosecrans in OTL had his date of commission back-dated once to make him senior to Thomas in the Army of the Cumberland, but if it must happen a 2nd time for AotP it might be a problem.

POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS: Immensely Huge.

 

[Fearless Leader]

This is an excellent question. I suspect you will know more details than most, based on the two scenarios you suggested. A 3rd possibility sprung to my mind - I don't know if it would work out with seniority or with other political concerns, so feel free to shoot it down:

3. Rosecrans replaces McClellan commanding the Army of the Potomac.

PROS: By October/November 1862 or so, McClellan has contributed as much to the AotP as he ever will, viz a viz organization and training, and getting some good people into mid-level command spots (corps commanders still requiring some overhaul to reach their 1863-levels of competency). Putting Rosecrans here avoids putting Burnside here and so butterflies away Fredericksburg, at least as OTL knows it. Much of Rosecrans' later clashes with the government came from (as he saw it) lack of supplies in a timely manner or in the quantity or quality he viewed necessary - here this won't be a problem as the AotP was the best-equipped and best-supplied of the Union armies. Rosecrans showed very solid skill in preparing an army to fight, in terms of both equipment and morale. Once he did launch an offensive he proved to have an overall solid track record, and imagination in creating plans - this makes him *at least* as good for the AotP as, say, Hooker. Plus he's faced Lee once already, in West Virginia in 1861, and won.

CONS: The AotP is *the biggest* political plum in the entire army system. Rosecrans' background may be an overall negative in comparison to options 1 or 2. For my part, IDK the relative seniorities of Rosecrans and the AotP corps commanders - this may not be a deal-breaker as Rosecrans in OTL had his date of commission back-dated once to make him senior to Thomas in the Army of the Cumberland, but if it must happen a 2nd time for AotP it might be a problem.

POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS: Immensely Huge.

This is an interesting possibility. The relative seniorities is a bit of a problem though. Whereas Rosecrans only had Thomas to contest the command of the Army of the Cumberland, in the AotP he will have to deal with both Burnside and Hooker. Backdating his promotion will probably upset Hooker at the very least. Then again, Rosecrans is a War Democrat from a key state (Ohio). OTOH in TTL the GOP is likely going to perform better in the 1862 midterms due to the "October Surprise" of the decisive victory at Perryville. IMO this is certainly a possibility but it's the least likely due to the presence of Burnside and Hooker. I think Lincoln offers command to Hooker before Rosecrans and Burnside's dislike of Hooker means that he won't let the position fall that far.

If Rosecrans does take command in November 1862, I'm not sure that it ends well. Rosecrans likely brings in his own people to staff key positions within the AotP and pushes through similar reforms to what he did in the AotC. However, the increased pressure to do something in Virginia means that he'll be forced to launch an offensive before any of these reforms can be instituted. Any offensive that he launches in this scenario is going to look a lot more like Stones' River or Chickamauga than Tullahoma. Given that he'll be facing a much more unified and competent army in the ANV, it could be disastrous for the Union in the east.

 

[History Learner]

If Rosecrans does take command in November 1862, I'm not sure that it ends well. Rosecrans likely brings in his own people to staff key positions within the AotP and pushes through similar reforms to what he did in the AotC. However, the increased pressure to do something in Virginia means that he'll be forced to launch an offensive before any of these reforms can be instituted. Any offensive that he launches in this scenario is going to look a lot more like Stones' River or Chickamauga than Tullahoma. Given that he'll be facing a much more unified and competent army in the ANV, it could be disastrous for the Union in the east.

It'd certainly be ironic for the Federals to smash the Army of Tennessee only to then see the Army of the Potomac get annihilated somewhere in Virginia.

 

[spkaca]

-How does Thomas' career develop without the resentment caused by being passed over for Rosecrans?

Potentially very far indeed. Gaining Chattanooga in 1863 (and not getting besieged there) would be virtually certain under the conditions you set out, which means Atlanta itself is within reach a year earlier than OTL. In my Thomas TL (sigged), he gets command of the AotC at Stones' River, outshines Grant himself in 1863 (though he is lucky in still facing Bragg, which might not happen in your TL) and gets the overall command in the East in 1864, ending the war that year (albeit with a bit of luck).

 

[Alterwright]

This may be the wrong place to ask this, but since its about the Battle of Perryville, I want some feedback of any kind.

I know the thread is about a "Decisive Union Victory" at Perryville, which is fine, can I ask you all how you think a "Decisive Confederate Victory" would have happened? So, to reverse the outcome, how could the Confederates turn their tactical victory into a decisive one that gives them control over the state?

I am very aware of how difficult this may be to answer and how unlikely an outcome like this could be, given what we know in hindsight. But I would really like to know if a Confederate victory could have been pulled off here. If so how, and if not possible, why?

Bragg was even pressed to go on the attack by his subordinates wasn't he? Didn't they want him to press their attack even further? Didn't he even say he would do it?

Any information on this would be helpful. Again I am very aware a decisive victory for the Conderates may not be possible, but I guess its merely a question to indulge the idea.