WI Austria-Hungary survives WW1?

[Evil Crusader]

Yeah, Split is a bigger starting port than Sibenik. It and Zara have better logistics though.
That said, I would believe A-H would be a big success story for multi-ethnic Capitalism. So there should be an equal but opposite push in the Communist side, rejecting grandiose multi-national dreams like it happened OTL ("Communism in one state") but to an even sharper degree.
Which now that we're at it, incidentally also makes the USSR a more appealing working partner for big tent nationalists ("we both believe our country should strive to be the best for its people after all").

 

[lukedalton]

The elephant in the room, as it stands, is Communism; regardless, A-H will face her own Red Peril and it'll have an impact. I wonder if the survival of a multi-national regime would lead Communism to accentuate an emphasis on nationalism.
If we're going by Féhérvári's proposal, then I would expect to go back to enemy blocs, with France, A-H and Poland as the Versailles party and Germany, the USSR and Italy as the Revisionists; A-H will also be very concerned that both her surviving major ports (Fiume and Dubrovnik) are in the Hungarian (or Slav) area, and frankly too exposed to potential enemies. Perhaps work is started on powering up either Zara or Sibenik?
If we're going by Galba's proposal, then A-H would be the real new third power in Continental Europe. It has survived the War and outdone the mighty German Empire; that alone would be great. The ditching of Wilsonian idealism slows down work on an international organisation, though. Italy will be resentful at everybody, being forced to accept no gain for her cost, and much more likely to fall in the Biennio Rosso. And Germany will likely aim the stab in the back myth even more, because only "the treacherous Jews" could engineer such a betrayal after all. That's my impression, at least.

The problem for A-h is that Italy can close access to his major ports if she rise from the bed on the wrong foot and A-h can't do anything against as, military reduction clause aside, the italians hold the best defensive line of the continent with in South Tyrol and Istria has his own mountain line that will be difficult to break.
And while she had outlast the German Empire had his tons of problem (both social and economic) to resolve while not counting the limit at his military and the reparation; regarding ditching Wilsonian idealism...forget it, Britain, France and Italy are too much indebted with the USA to put the foot down too strongly they only way for WW to not really control the conference is him drop dead for an earlier stroke before the conference, otherwise what he tell will happen

 

[Fehérvári]

The problem for A-h is that Italy can close access to his major ports

That's an act of war though.

 

[JanWellem]

And even if Austria-Hungary should survive the crisis of 1918-1919, the next one would come when Emperor Charles I dies in 1922. to be succeeded by his 9 year old son Otto, likely under the regency of his mother. Many constituent parts of the empire, not wanting to be ruled by an arch-conservative Empress-mother Zita for the next 8+ years, seceede.

 

[Fehérvári]

And even if Austria-Hungary should survive the crisis of 1918-1919, the next one would come when Emperor Charles I dies in 1922.

That's not a given. From Wiki: "On 9 March 1922 he caught a cold in town, which developed into bronchitis and progressed to severe pneumonia. Having suffered two heart attacks, he died of respiratory failure on 1 April"
Nothing garantuees he would suffer the same illness ITTL. Furthermore, there would be much higher quality medical facilities available to him in Vienna, should he still get ill ITTL.

Many constituent parts of the empire, not wanting to be ruled by an arch-conservative Empress-mother Zita for the next 8+ years, seceede.

I don't think Zita would be given power either way. The most likely development would probably be the establishment of a regency council consisting of the senior members of the House of Habsburg-Lorraine, such as Archduke Eugen, Archduke Friedrich, Archduke Karl Stephan and Archduke Joseph August. Maybe Archduke Maximilian (Karl's younger brother) would also get a seat in the council.

 

[JanWellem]

That's not a given. From Wiki: "On 9 March 1922 he caught a cold in town, which developed into bronchitis and progressed to severe pneumonia. Having suffered two heart attacks, he died of respiratory failure on 1 April"
Nothing garantuees he would suffer the same illness ITTL. Furthermore, there would be much higher quality medical facilities available to him in Vienna, should he still get ill ITTL.

In the Wikipedia article on Empress Zita it's stated that Charles had been in poor health for quite some time before he caught the cold, which makes sense since 34 year olds normally don't suffer multiple heart attacks after catching a cold, not even if said cold progresses to pneumonia, that's something which will usually only do in people twice as old like e.g. William Henry Harrison.

 

[marathag]

ouldn't A-H survival rather reinforce the viability multinational states, and thus reinforce the internationalist worldview of Communism

With Charles or Otto as Emperor, even as in Constitutional Monarch?

 

[lukedalton]

That's an act of war though.

Sure but unless the British or the French say something what A-H can do? And even if Italy don't do anything both in term of words and action, there is always the perspective of the menace...and this alone will stop many on the private sector to invest there

 

[Fehérvári]

In the Wikipedia article on Empress Zita it's stated that Charles had been in poor health for quite some time before he caught the cold, which makes sense since 34 year olds normally don't suffer multiple heart attacks after catching a cold, not even if said cold progresses to pneumonia, that's something which will usually only do in people twice as old like e.g. William Henry Harrison.

Considering the circumstances he was put through, having a poor health isn't that surprising, imo. All those stress, anxiety and lethargy from seeing his empire fall apart, losing his thrones and getting betrayed probably really did a number on him. Ofcourse, this is probably very subjective, but I don't believe he would have passed so early given more hopeful circumstances.

With Charles or Otto as Emperor, even as in Constitutional Monarch?

Regardless of the exact form, it would be a testament of the possibility of overcoming national/ethnic divide. In communist interpretation, it could prove that the greatest divisor of the people is class.

Sure but unless the British or the French say something what A-H can do? And even if Italy don't do anything both in term of words and action, there is always the perspective of the menace...and this alone will stop many on the private sector to invest there

A-H would be powerless, sure. Whose ships would the Italians deny entry to though? British, French, Spanish, Greek, etc. ...and also their own. I don't think these third countries (or some domestic elements) would view the Italian government's actions favourably. What exactly would the Italians hope to gain here? Why would they do such a thing? I believe, this kind of blocade would only make sense if war already broke out between the two countries.

 

[lukedalton]

A-H would be powerless, sure. Whose ships would the Italians deny entry to though? British, French, Spanish, Greek, etc. ...and also their own. I don't think these third countries (or some domestic elements) would view the Italian government's actions favourably. What exactly would the Italians hope to gain here? Why would they do such a thing? I believe, this kind of blocade would only make sense if war already broke out between the two countries.

View favourably? No but OTL had clearly show that frankly interwar France and UK are not really interested in what happen in est europe if it mean that they need to sacrifice blood and treasure to stop it.
What Italy hope to gain? As you are so sure that Benny come to power the answer is simple: whatever he want and nation like Serbia and Romania and Poland or Germany will be happy to help...Italy. Well there is the option of an alliance with the URSS, but good luck after

Sorry but there is no scenario where A-H win aka survive with this precondition, hell even a victory in 1918 it's basically simply a prelude to collapse; very few have interest in remaining in the nation and surely not after a so costly defeat, the Jugoslavian idea has a lot of support and in general postwar the entire nation will be a colossal disaster

 

[Fehérvári]

View favourably? No but OTL had clearly show that frankly interwar France and UK are not really interested in what happen in est europe if it mean that they need to sacrifice blood and treasure to stop it.

Economic sanctions on Italy, withheld loans, and consent to A-H ceasing reparations towards Italy could all be powerful tools to discourage Italy from continuing its blocade. Also, I don't think the British and French would be as much unwilling to conduct some naval action against Italy as they were unwilling to have a new land war with Germany.

What Italy hope to gain? As you are so sure that Benny come to power the answer is simple: whatever he want and nation like Serbia and Romania and Poland or Germany will be happy to help...Italy. Well there is the option of an alliance with the URSS, but good luck after

Romania and Serbia yes, however the exact German stance would probably greatly depend on what timeframe we're talking about. If it's pre-1930, I wouldn't expect much from Germany. Meanwhile, both Poland and Germany could be great beneficiaries of Austria-Hungary's trade being forced to reroute from the Med. Sitting back and counting their coins would be the easiest and most advantageous stance they could take.
If we're talking about what would Nazi Germany do, then support for Italy is certainly on the table, sure. At that point however, we would already be on the brink of WW2.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

An unbiased perspective on the most probable outcome

Early 1920s: Austria struggles to hold together, but Central Europe does much better than OTL.

Late 1920s: Austria sees a significant degree of economic recovery, struggles to finance rebuilding of military.

Early 1930s: Depression makes reparation payments difficult, rebuilding of military halted.

Late 1930s: Economic recovery, WWI debts becoming less significant, military rebuilt. Mussolini invades Ethiopia and Albania. Austria is a difficult target so Hitler goes after Poland first. Poland is triple partitioned by Germany, Soviet Union, Austria along 1914 borders.

Germany invades Soviet Union with surprise attack in 1939 and takes Poland. After four years the Soviets push the Germans beyond to prewar borders, secure Baltics. Military coups Hitler. Austria offers to protect Germany in exchange for restoration of German monarchs and several Habsburg cadets to be able to marry Catholic states; German military complies. Soviet Union backs down to Austrian ultimatum, agrees to annex only Baltic. Secret agreement regarding Romania.

In 1944, Austria, Russia, and Bulgaria force Romania to return to 1914 borders without shot being fired.

Italy tries to exploit chaos in Europe with war against Greece. Bogged down in Greece and Ethiopia simultaneously leaves them vulnerable. France and Austria decide to launch a quick containment war, resulting in Italy quickly collapsing. Austria gets its frontiers and satellites of 1861 restored.

1940s: Austria sees strong economic and population growth, enlarges further.

1950s: Economic boom. Austria is the economic center of Europe. Franco tries to place a Habsburg on the throne; France feels threatened. A war is launched by France to prevent themselves from being surrounded. France is soundly defeated by Austria, Germany, and Spain. Spain accepts a Habsburg on the throne. France fights a civil war between different extremist groups after government js discredited, resulting in the French right winning and the Bourbons being restored. France loses its colonies.

1960s: Austria sponsors decolonization movements around the world, offering financial assistance. Colonies accept Habsburg monarchs to demonstrate they are civilized. Latin American dictatorships accept Habsburg monarchs as well. Austria sends first man to the moon.

1970s: France and Italy both intermarry with Habsburg royal family, colonial era is effectively over internationally. Congo, Angola, and most Catholic leaning African states accept Habsburgs.

1980s: Austria invents the internet as we know it today.

1990s: Former Eastern Bloc accept Habsburg monarchs to get access to easy finance and technology, not appear backwards.

2000s: Habsburgs build first underwater city. Emperor Otto von Habsburg, on a stroll in the University of Vienna, notices flaw in physics department. Discovers fusion.

2010s: Austria builds first city on the moon, send first man to Mars.

2020s: Karl von Habsburg discovers cure for COVID. Despite underfunding from Hungarians, Austria makes first contact with advanced aliens. Space conquistadors introduce diseases, wipe out alien civilization, begin converting it to Catholicism and place Habsburg institutions on top of native institutions.

 

[Fehérvári]

@Jiraiyathegallant
Could you please not troll?

Late 1920s: Austria sees a significant degree of economic recovery, struggles to finance rebuilding of military.

Financing the rebuilding of military shouldn't be a problem, considering A-H wouldn't be allowed to do so in the first place. That money is better spent elsewhere, anyway.

Early 1930s: Depression makes reparation payments difficult, rebuilding of military halted.

If the Hoover Moratorium and the Lausanne Conference of 1932 still happen, then A-H probably stops payments starting from 1931/'32, just like everyone else.

Late 1930s: Economic recovery, WWI debts becoming less significant, military rebuilt. Mussolini invades Ethiopia and Albania. Austria is a difficult target so Hitler goes after Poland first. Poland is triple partitioned by Germany, Soviet Union, Austria along 1914 borders.

Let's suppose the Nazis still come to power in Germany, Italy still invades Ethiopia, the Rhineland still gets remilitarised and there's still a Spanish Civil War. The increasing tension in Europe could finally provide impetus for A-H to begin rearming. Until this point, we more or less have the same idea, I believe.

The first questionable development concerns Albania. Italian withdrawal from Vlorë in 1920 can still happen, just like Zog's rise to power and proclamation as king. However, Zog's marriage would be unlikely to happen like it did IOTL. Without the imminency of Zog establishing a lasting dynasty, there would be one less reason for the Italian invasion of Albania. The absence of the Anschluss and the invasion of Czechoslovakia ITTL would also decrease the likelihood of Mussolini taking such action.

The only way I could imagine Italy actually going forward with the invasion, if Zog at some point would begin to pivot towards Austria-Hungary to decrease Italian influence in his country. In such scenario, the Italians could decide to invade the country perhaps as early as 1934. However, if Italy takes no such action in 1934, then the Abyssinian Crisis and the consequent 2nd Italo-Ethiopian War would probably prevent it from dealing with Albania atleast until the first half of 1937. Italian intervention in the Spanish Civil War could further delay matters.

Going forward with this latter scenario, let's say Italy finally invades Albania in 1939. Seeing Italy getting away with all of these aggressive actions pretty much unpunished (aside from some sanctions), the German leadership would probably feel emboldened to realise their own ambitions too. The restoration of Memel could probably go throught without any problems, but the question of Poland is trickier. The British and French would probably try to appease Germany and persuade the Polish leadership to give up the corridor in exchange for garantueed access to sea trade (Gdynia could be left in Polish hands and transit rights could be granted connecting it to the Polish mainland) and further garantuees on the territorial integrity of what remains of Poland.

I'm not convinced Poland would play along with this though.

On a related note, I don't believe A-H would pile on Poland. Restoring Galicia was not worth it, and an independent Poland was more beneficial to A-H anyway.

 

[Fehérvári]

Going forward with this latter scenario, let's say Italy finally invades Albania in 1939. Seeing Italy getting away with all of these aggressive actions pretty much unpunished (aside from some sanctions), the German leadership would probably feel emboldened to realise their own ambitions too. The restoration of Memel could probably go throught without any problems, but the question of Poland is trickier. The British and French would probably try to appease Germany and persuade the Polish leadership to give up the corridor in exchange for garantueed access to sea trade (Gdynia could be left in Polish hands and transit rights could be granted connecting it to the Polish mainland) and further garantuees on the territorial integrity of what remains of Poland.

I'm not convinced Poland would play along with this though.

On a related note, I don't believe A-H would pile on Poland. Restoring Galicia was not worth it, and an independent Poland was more beneficial to A-H anyway.

Suppose the British and French agree to the conditions presented above, but Poland refuses to cooperate. War breaks out between Germany and Poland. Germany successfully takes the area of the corridor, but the germans don't stop there, they attack Poznań and Polish Silesia and the war continues. Now, how would this development influence Soviet actions? How would the British and French react once it becomes obvious the Germans plan to take much more than what was agreed upon? Would they still let the Germans act unpunished (just like in the case of Czechoslovakia's invasion IOTL)?

Back to the Soviets, how likely would a rushed invasion of Eastern Poland be? Denying the area to the Germans would probably be viewed as crucial by the Soviet leadership. Without the M-R Pact securing non-hostility (and delineating planned spheres of influence) between the two invaders, I wonder how could things play out when the two armies inevitably come across each other on the field?

 

[drakeVL]

Germany probably still sees rise of nazism altough it has probably pay lesser of reparations than in OTL. And I guess that nazis and basically all of Germans would hate A-H since it would be seen as traitor who left the war too early.

Doesnt that butterfly Hitler taking over though ?
considering he is a austrian he might get alot of resentment in this scenario

 

[Fehérvári]

Doesnt that butterfly Hitler taking over though ?
considering he is a austrian he might get alot of resentment in this scenario

He served in the Bavarian military during the war. That might cut him some slack. Besides, the blame would probably rather fall on the Habsburgs, not the average Austrian Germans.

 

[Fehérvári]

Suppose the British and French agree to the conditions presented above, but Poland refuses to cooperate. War breaks out between Germany and Poland. Germany successfully takes the area of the corridor, but the germans don't stop there, they attack Poznań and Polish Silesia and the war continues. Now, how would this development influence Soviet actions? How would the British and French react once it becomes obvious the Germans plan to take much more than what was agreed upon? Would they still let the Germans act unpunished (just like in the case of Czechoslovakia's invasion IOTL)?

No takers?

 

[marathag]

On a related note, I don't believe A-H would pile on Poland. Restoring Galicia was not worth it, and an independent Poland was more beneficial to A-H anyway

I feel that since the areas in Poland and Ukraine lost were among the poorest in the Empire, would not want them back, but would have good relations with those newly independent nations. Well Poland at least, after Ukraine gets subsumed into the USSR

 

[OxSpace]

Austria offers to protect Germany in exchange for restoration of German monarchs and several Habsburg cadets to be able to marry Catholic states

Absolutely not; monarchism is dead. A-H would not drag their Empire into a war over a petty restoration nor would Austro-Hungarians want to enter the war on these merits.

 

[Fehérvári]

I feel that since the areas in Poland and Ukraine lost were among the poorest in the Empire, would not want them back, but would have good relations with those newly independent nations. Well Poland at least, after Ukraine gets subsumed into the USSR

Relations would be pretty normal imo, although A-H trying to remain neutral in the interwar German-Polish feud would probably hinder somewhat the development of diplomatic and economic ties between A-H and Poland. The potential rise of Nazi Germany (which would be a threat to both countries) could change that however.