WI/AHC: Megali Idea Fullfilled In The 1800's (1880 being the latest limit)

[AudieonAHCom]

Yes!

As the title explains..

What is the repercussions of a fall of the Ottoman Empire that early, and a fullfillment of the Megali Idea on those dates?
How early/late it could happen?
And how it could happen exactly?

Thank you...

 

[JanWellem]

The Great Powers, i.e. Britain and France, don't prop up the decaying corpse the Ottoman Empire had become before the full implementation of the Tanzimat reforms, in the 1850s, instead coming to an agreement with Russia, where a Britain aligned Greece gains the Megali Idea territories including Constantinople, thus controlling both sides of the Straits and a significant part of Asia Minor's Mediterranen coast with Russia gaining the up until then still Ottoman parts of Armenia and the Balkans reorganised along the OTL's post Balkan Wars lines,with the Arabian parts of the Ottoman Empire falling under British or French control respectively along an Indian Princely States model.

 

[AudieonAHCom]

The Great Powers, i.e. Britain and France, don't prop up the decaying corpse the Ottoman Empire had become before the full implementation of the Tanzimat reforms, in the 1850s, instead coming to an agreement with Russia, where a Britain aligned Greece gains the Megali Idea territories including Constantinople, thus controlling both sides of the Straits and a significant part of Asia Minor's Mediterranen coast with Russia gaining the up until then still Ottoman parts of Armenia and the Balkans reorganised along the OTL's post Balkan Wars lines,with the Arabian parts of the Ottoman Empire falling under British or French control respectively along an Indian Princely States model.

The question is, what is the ramifications that could happen in your scenario?

Plus...

Does Greece actually had the capability to adminstrate such length of territories?

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

Did Greece actually have the capability to administrate such length of territories?

Greece may not, but there's a friend that's willing to help. Also, mass conversions/deportations to help homogenize the populace?

 

[AudieonAHCom]

Greece may not, but there's a friend that's willing to help. Also, mass conversions/deportations to help homogenize the populace?

So, few regions gonna be Russia's, yet forced deportations and conversions could do the trick.

But then

Whats the ramification for that?

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

So, few regions gonna be Russia's, yet forced deportations and conversions could do the trick.

But then

Whats the ramification for that?

Ottoman Revanchism.Austria wants to remove the bear from Balkans, the Turks at least want all of Anatolia, and this could be achieved when the Balkans do the thing that they are the best at, screwing each other.

Let's say there is a TTL Balkan War or a crisis in 1860s -1870s time frame. Austria could pick sides against Serbs, who have claimed "Greater Serbia" and assist Bulgaria. The new formed Romanian kingdom has claims against Bulgaria in Dobruja and will join the Serbs. Megali Greece means all of Thrace is Greek so maybe no Greek intervention until the Ottomans want their lands back.

This could be a string of conflicts or could be one whole. There is also a chance that a few conferences by the Great Powers helps in the solution or aversion of the crisis.

 

[fraa Jad]

Mid 1840-ish at the latest. Before the revolutions of 1848 throw butterflies in all kind of places.

 

[AudieonAHCom]

Ottoman Revanchism.Austria wants to remove the bear from Balkans, the Turks at least want all of Anatolia, and this could be achieved when the Balkans do the thing that they are the best at, screwing each other.

Let's say there is a TTL Balkan War or a crisis in 1860s -1870s time frame. Austria could pick sides against Serbs, who have claimed "Greater Serbia" and assist Bulgaria. The new formed Romanian kingdom has claims against Bulgaria in Dobruja and will join the Serbs. Megali Greece means all of Thrace is Greek so maybe no Greek intervention until the Ottomans want their lands back.

This could be a string of conflicts or could be one whole. There is also a chance that a few conferences by the Great Powers helps in the solution or aversion of the crisis.

Is there is any chance for further Greek expansion?

Second, is it possible for Greece to return to Constantinople as their seat?

 

[AudieonAHCom]

Mid 1840-ish at the latest. Before the revolutions of 1848 throw butterflies in all kind of places.

Such as?

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

Is there is any chance for further Greek expansion?

Second, is it possible for Greece to return to Constantinople as their seat?

The Greeks could always further expand into Anatolia, but they either have to assimilate and convert the Turks or they will face HARSH resistance. They could purchase Cyprus and Ionian islands from the UK and possibly be considered a regional power and be given some colony, which I believe will most probably be OTL Djibouti or somewhere in the Western Africa region.
And talking about the return to Constantinople, YES. The Greeks will probably move the seat of their administration to Constantinople as the Turks are not in a position to affect them and due to it being the historical seat of power.

 

[AudieonAHCom]

The Greeks could always further expand into Anatolia, but they either have to assimilate and convert the Turks or they will face HARSH resistance. They could purchase Cyprus and Ionian islands from the UK and possibly be considered a regional power and be given some colony, which I believe will most probably be OTL Djibouti or somewhere in the Western Africa region.
And talking about the return to Constantinople, YES. The Greeks will probably move the seat of their administration to Constantinople as the Turks are not in a position to affect them and due to it being the historical seat of power.

I kinda see Greece might want some part of Egypt tbh.

But then, will they pull shit such as proclaiming the second Byzie?

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

I kinda see Greece might want some part of Egypt tbh.

But then, will they pull shit such as proclaiming the second Byzie?

Oh Yes. Maybe Alexandria. They'd probably claim to be the protector of the Copts too.

And they will probably proclaim themselves as Byzantium, but that could be not so well-received by the Russians, the Italians, and maybe all of western Europe

 

[Pauh the federalist]

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea)
If you want the most complete Megali Idea within the time frame you specified, you are going to want to start with a pod that starts with a succesfull Greek Plan (its the best way to incorporate Bulgarian land and gives a huge pod window). The Greek Plan was hatched up by Catherin the Great to partition the ottoman empire between the hapsburgs (yellow) russia (green) venice (light blue) a newly independent romania (dark blue) and a "Neobyzantine Empire" (red)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Plan)
Between 1780-1880 (1800-1880 to fit pod if needed) you have nearly 100 years for the Neobyzantine Empire (greeks) to gradualy gain land through likly events such as the eventual partiton of venice to get remaining greek land (alt french revolution or the hasburgs just deciding to end it being the most likly) further partions of the ottomans between Russia and the Neobyzantine Empire to get western/northern anitolia. (further coflict seems inevitable) on the face of it the proior examples are the safest and get you to where you want to be to have a wank megali idia but if a alt greak war breaks out some time after a rift with the hapsburgs and the russians and the Neobyzantine Empire has to pick a side then they might be able to scoop up additional land from one of the two major powers.

 

[AudieonAHCom]

View attachment 543561
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea)
If you want the most complete Megali Idea within the time frame you specified, you are going to want to start with a pod that starts with a succesfull Greek Plan (its the best way to incorporate Bulgarian land and gives a huge pod window). The Greek Plan was hatched up by Catherin the Great to partition the ottoman empire between the hapsburgs (yellow) russia (green) venice (light blue) a newly independent romania (dark blue) and a "Neobyzantine Empire" (red)
View attachment 543563
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Plan)
Between 1780-1880 (1800-1880 to fit pod if needed) you have nearly 100 years for the Neobyzantine Empire (greeks) to gradualy gain land through likly events such as the eventual partiton of venice to get remaining greek land (alt french revolution or the hasburgs just deciding to end it being the most likly) further partions of the ottomans between Russia and the Neobyzantine Empire to get western/northern anitolia. (further coflict seems inevitable) on the face of it the proior examples are the safest and get you to where you want to be to have a wank megali idia but if a alt greak war breaks out some time after a rift with the hapsburgs and the russians and the Neobyzantine Empire has to pick a side then they might be able to scoop up additional land from one of the two major powers.

Ah, any expansion to Anatolia must wait, eh?

So, i assume that Greece could proclaim the new Empire?

 

[Lascaris]

Combine a Greek revolution starting around 1807, led by the Septinsular republic, which actually came close to happening, with Mahmud failing to hide in that bath and getting assassinated leaving Mustafa IV as sultan. Mahmud's reforms and restoration of centralized government fail to happen just as Greek rebels with European style troops and British backing are establishing themselves in the south...

 

[Wendell]

I do't think Greece getting large parts of Anatolia is plausible or viable in these constraints.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Ah, any expansion to Anatolia must wait, eh?

So, i assume that Greece could proclaim the new Empire?

Expansion into Anatolia would likely come in a future Russian, Byzantine war with the ottoman empire, since at this stage without constant great power support, full partition of the ottomans seems inevitable. If the ottomans can not get support or if support toward the Russian and greek side can be bought by promising them ottoman land (likely in Arabia or North Africa) in the same way the Russians otl succeeded in getting the support of the Austrian empire.
In a future war, Russia is likely to expand south from its recently conquered lands in Trebizond to the lands of greater Armenia where there are decent Arminian populations

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians_in_the_Ottoman_Empire)
The Byzantines would push to take cypress western Anatolia and northern Anatolia in order to link up with Russian Trebizond and completely sever the ottomans from the black sea (They would take roughly the solid dark area of the Megali idea, not the dark striped area in order to maintain stability)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea)

 

[Masked Grizzly]

View attachment 543561
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea)
If you want the most complete Megali Idea within the time frame you specified, you are going to want to start with a pod that starts with a succesfull Greek Plan (its the best way to incorporate Bulgarian land and gives a huge pod window). The Greek Plan was hatched up by Catherin the Great to partition the ottoman empire between the hapsburgs (yellow) russia (green) venice (light blue) a newly independent romania (dark blue) and a "Neobyzantine Empire" (red)
View attachment 543563
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Plan)
Between 1780-1880 (1800-1880 to fit pod if needed) you have nearly 100 years for the Neobyzantine Empire (greeks) to gradualy gain land through likly events such as the eventual partiton of venice to get remaining greek land (alt french revolution or the hasburgs just deciding to end it being the most likly) further partions of the ottomans between Russia and the Neobyzantine Empire to get western/northern anitolia. (further coflict seems inevitable) on the face of it the proior examples are the safest and get you to where you want to be to have a wank megali idia but if a alt greak war breaks out some time after a rift with the hapsburgs and the russians and the Neobyzantine Empire has to pick a side then they might be able to scoop up additional land from one of the two major powers.

Would it have been possible for the Greeks to have achieved a limited form of the Greek Plan where they gain most of Western Thrace, parts of Southern Bulgaria / Eastern Rumelia / Northern Thrace, Northern Epirus and possibly Northern Macedonia yet the Ottomans somehow manage to retain a hold over Eastern Thrace akin to OTL?

Basically a scenario where the Ottomans manage to survive for a bit longer yet be significantly more weakened before WW1 compared to OTL for the Greeks to succeed in achieving the Megali idea from the west and the Russians the Sazonov part of the Sykes-Picot Agreement from the east (plus Mosul as well as Iranian Azerbaijan and Iranian Kurdistan along the way in some prior Russo-Persian war), with the French and the Italians permantantly removing Cilicia and Lycia respectively.

Could it be done whilst having the Greek, Armenian and Assyrian populations within the Ottoman empire manage to survive relatively intact?

 

[AudieonAHCom]

Combine a Greek revolution starting around 1807, led by the Septinsular republic, which actually came close to happening, with Mahmud failing to hide in that bath and getting assassinated leaving Mustafa IV as sultan. Mahmud's reforms and restoration of centralized government fail to happen just as Greek rebels with European style troops and British backing are establishing themselves in the south...

On this case, how far Greece could go?

I do't think Greece getting large parts of Anatolia is plausible or viable in these constraints.

If so, how much it could also go?

Expansion into Anatolia would likely come in a future Russian, Byzantine war with the ottoman empire, since at this stage without constant great power support, full partition of the ottomans seems inevitable. If the ottomans can not get support or if support toward the Russian and greek side can be bought by promising them ottoman land (likely in Arabia or North Africa) in the same way the Russians otl succeeded in getting the support of the Austrian empire.
In a future war, Russia is likely to expand south from its recently conquered lands in Trebizond to the lands of greater Armenia where there are decent Arminian populations
View attachment 544159
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians_in_the_Ottoman_Empire)
The Byzantines would push to take cypress western Anatolia and northern Anatolia in order to link up with Russian Trebizond and completely sever the ottomans from the black sea (They would take roughly the solid dark area of the Megali idea, not the dark striped area in order to maintain stability)

View attachment 544172
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea)

So it could took decades before Greece did a second push, right?

Also, are you implying Greece might actually proclaim the second Byzie?

Would it have been possible for the Greeks to have achieved a limited form of the Greek Plan where they gain most of Western Thrace, parts of Southern Bulgaria / Eastern Rumelia / Northern Thrace, Northern Epirus and possibly Northern Macedonia yet the Ottomans somehow manage to retain a hold over Eastern Thrace akin to OTL?

Basically a scenario where the Ottomans manage to survive for a bit longer yet be significantly more weakened before WW1 compared to OTL for the Greeks to succeed in achieving the Megali idea from the west and the Russians the Sazonov part of the Sykes-Picot Agreement from the east (plus Mosul as well as Iranian Azerbaijan and Iranian Kurdistan along the way in some prior Russo-Persian war), with the French and the Italians permantantly removing Cilicia and Lycia respectively.

Could it be done whilst having the Greek, Armenian and Assyrian populations within the Ottoman empire manage to survive relatively intact?

But in a event of a Greek Rebellion, i dont think the Bulgarians would be quiet. They gotta be try their own shot imho.

But yeah, the Russians possibly swoop in first too

 

[Wendell]

Maybe the European parts. Possibly some of the Anatolian coastline immediately facing Greece. Likely not both.