What if Poland joins Hitler's side?

[Suleyman]

Yes it is possible. POD must be Poland being run by someone competent like a healthy, young Pilsudski, the one from 1920. They simply had no other options. Western allies were of no help- they couldnt do much more than declaring war, Britain had a token army and France was so defensive theyd have to be mad to leave Maginot line. Blind Polish leadership didnt even think about Germany allying with Russia while it was obvious. If you rule a country like Poland- between two expansive totalitarian regimes without any real possibility of being helped, what can you do? Bleed for nothing and be betrayed ( western allies did what they had to, traded Poland and central europe for soviet manpower) or submit to one of them. Germany is the one less liked, but it's the one that can be defeated by the western powers, wich have no real interest in destroying the USSR. Sure theyre commies but who cares? Germany is just beyond the Rhine... So, consider this: After Munich Poland allies with Germany (it will be a satellite de facto but noone will say it loud... yet) ceding Danzig and allowing to build the highway like Hitler demanded. It will cede rest of the corridir and Silesia sooner or later but not yet. What happens?
Is Ribbentrop-Molotov pact still signed (forcing Poland to cede few eastern provinces to the SU)?
Where does Hitler strike? France or Russia? - if he goes for France it' going to be probably be like OTL: a quick defeat with Stalin not having enough time for a backstab, even if he wants to, but if he goes for Russia what are western allies doing?
Who is in charge in the UK?

 

[Anaxagoras]

Yes it is possible.

No, actually, it's not.

Wrong Forum, by the way.

 

[Germaniac]

No, actually, it's not.

Wrong Forum, by the way.

not necessarily, the POD would prolly need to be prior to 1900

 

[SilverPhantom2]

Then unless we have a very very minor POD, then I find it hard to believe we'd end up with the same World War II, or World War I, Treaty of Versailles, etc. by 1939.

 

[Nicksplace27]

1898, A young Hitler befriends a polish boy who also hates the Jews. Voila!

 

[RCTFI]

Then unless we have a very very minor POD, then I find it hard to believe we'd end up with the same World War II, or World War I, Treaty of Versailles, etc. by 1939.

It would actually be possible to have Hitler take a different view of the Poles. Especially if the Poles were more accomadating towards his efforts. After all, quite a lot of ethnically Polish people had been living in Germany until a very short time ago, and there was a big influence from back when Imperial Germany had held so much stuff. So, they could have been treated as different from the Slavic sub-humans of Russia - for one example of how this could have been arranged, see how the Germans viewed the Sorbians (yes, that is the correct spelling, it's nothing to do with the Serbians) - as more or less Aryan people who ended up speaking a Slavic dialect "by mistake".


Of course, the Poles have against them the fact that they're foreigners (the Sorbs were right in the middle of Germany), the fact that they're more visible, the fact that they're in the way of German Lebensraum and a whole slew of other things, like having tried to grab German territory in Germany's moment of weakness after WWI.

So, basically, while it could happen, it would be terribly unlikely, and terribly implausible. But, it could happen. At least, that's my take on the situation.

 

[DuQuense]

There was a great Time Line about this on SHWI several years ago.

Un fortinitally I can't find it in my TL backups.

?Anyone else remember it?

 

[danielbd]

Of course, the Poles have against them the fact that they're foreigners (the Sorbs were right in the middle of Germany), the fact that they're more visible, the fact that they're in the way of German Lebensraum and a whole slew of other things, like having tried to grab German territory in Germany's moment of weakness after WWI.

So, basically, while it could happen, it would be terribly unlikely, and terribly implausible. But, it could happen. At least, that's my take on the situation.

It is not fair comparing 10 000 more or less assimilated Sorbs with 20 million politically aware, nationalistic Poles all concentrated in one big region and with a tradition of rebellion against foreign rule.
I know you said it was terribly implausible, but imo it's even less than that.

 

[carlton_bach]

It is not fair comparing 10 000 more or less assimilated Sorbs with 20 million politically aware, nationalistic Poles all concentrated in one big region and with a tradition of rebellion against foreign rule.
I know you said it was terribly implausible, but imo it's even less than that.

The key would be a shift in German policy. OTL the Nazis believed that the majority of Poles were suibhuman and only a minority racially worth saving (and in the long run Germanising). That coloured their view of what to do about Poland and led them to never even consider the idea of a serious alliance. If they were to believe that the Poles were by and large a Nordic people that only spoke a Slavic language by accident (they believed that about the Wends and Sorbs), an alliance becomes possible. There still is the matter of territorial claims, but since this would obviously be an alliance of necessity, Warsaw might be willing to forgo the Corridor in return for protection from a Soviet invasion if offered on those terms. The Finlandisation of POland, if you will.

 

[Admiral Canaris]

I strongly doubt Poland would cede Danzig AND Gotenhafen; that'd both leave them landlocked (perhaps not a huge issue) and deprive them of one of their single greatest sources of income (BIG isse in Europe's poorest country).

 

[carlton_bach]

I strongly doubt Poland would cede Danzig AND Gotenhafen; that'd both leave them landlocked (perhaps not a huge issue) and deprive them of one of their single greatest sources of income (BIG isse in Europe's poorest country).

What are their options? By '38 or early '39 it will be amply clear that German troops will move through Poland at one point. The question is, will they come as putative allies in a move against the Soviets, or as invaders? If an alliance with possible territorial gains in Russia is offered, that is. POland wouldn't offer it on its own, clearly.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by carlton-bach

What are their options? By '38 or early '39 it will be amply clear that German troops will move through Poland at one point. The question is, will they come as putative allies in a move against the Soviets, or as invaders? If an alliance with possible territorial gains in Russia is offered, that is. POland wouldn't offer it on its own, clearly.

Everybody criticizes Polish policy, but you're all forgetting you do it with a benefit of a hindsight. In 1939 nobody suspected there would be an alliance between Hitler and Stalin. After all comunism and nazism were mortal enemies. Nobody could forsee how effective German mechanized forces would prove to be (even Germans themselves were surprised). Nobody suspected how low French fighting spirit had sunk.
Polish policy was simple. Keep the balance between Germany and USSR, protect the integrity of Polish territory. Poles had no illusions they would defeat Germans by themselves. They hoped they would keep Germans busy long enough for France (and Britain) going into offensive, with military supplies going to Poland via Romania.
After invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939 whole Europe already knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. Giving up Pomerania would only make Poland more vulnerable for further German demands, practically changing it into German semi-colony. Many of you claim it would be better than hell made by Hitler in Poand IOTL. Perhaps you're right, but in Poland nobody suspected anything like that. After all Germany was civilised, European country. In worst case Poles might have expected a similar kind of occupation like in 1915-1918 - harsh, but not cruel or brutal, with relatively civilized, human terms. They were for a terrible surprise...
In short, Poland didn't ally with Hitler, because it would mean practically unconditional surrrender and loss of very valuable territory with milions of Polish inhabitants. OTOH, Poles had promises of help from France and Britain, two major military powers in Europe, and they had big and brave, even if obsolete, army. They knew it wouldn't be easy, but they had reasons to believe they might win. Their choice was simple - surrender, and loose independence; or fight, hand in hand with powerful allies, with reasonable chances for victory. Yes, they miscalculated, but at that time they posistion seemed quite reasonable.

 

[Admiral Canaris]

What are their options? By '38 or early '39 it will be amply clear that German troops will move through Poland at one point. The question is, will they come as putative allies in a move against the Soviets, or as invaders? If an alliance with possible territorial gains in Russia is offered, that is. POland wouldn't offer it on its own, clearly.

IIRC such an offer was made IOTL; more land in the Ukraine in return for alliance and the return of German lands. That it wasn't taken speaks against this. The Poles weren't stupid; the lands in the West were much more valuable (and "pure" in ethnical terms; Poles were a minority in much of their land already) than anything they could hope to get Eastwards, and on top of that Hitler's reputation for telling the truth was never great in the first place and declined considerably as the '30s passed.

The Poles were very set on their sovereignty; they didn't want foreign forces on their soil, German or Soviet. They knew they'd be in trouble if they ever sided with one of the powers: if it won, they'd be its colony; if it lost, they'd be devastated and then taken by the victor.

 

[Vault-Scope]

Simple, would Poland side with Germany, war with France and Britain is averted in 1939. In exchange for Dantzig, Polish gov would take over Lithuania.
In 1940 (or 1941), axis offensive starts from Romanian, Latvian and Polish territories. For axis membershipe, they would gain western or southern part of the "ukrainian" SSR (rest going to Germany, of course), obtaining an opening to the black sea in the process.
In 41-42, a few millions Poles would be relocated from areas Germany had in 1914, then sent them to newly conquered territories.
Polish gov would have no moral issues whatsoever about it, in fact Poland might progressively become a missing link between Ustashee Croatia and axis Romania.

IOTL, Hitler was willing to negociate with Croatia/Slovakia/Slovenia, he even bosniaks and Bulgars. A friendly Poland would have not much troubles joining the axis.
IOTL 1938, polish gov was about to side with Germany and against Czechoslovakia (and by extension, the soviet-union), if war broke out.


Most certain result, no invasion and occupation of France. Italia stays neutral between Germany and France/Britain, Mussolini might even quit the axis if things goes wrong in 43-44.
If Mussolini is overthrowed, faschist Italia might even declare war on Germany if the colonial powers & the USA later bullied/bought them.

1898, A young Hitler befriends a polish boy who also hates the Jews. Voila!

It is only in 1912 Hitler became antisemitic...

In 1939 nobody suspected there would be an alliance between Hitler and Stalin.

Hovewer, it was clear that if there was a war between the soviet-union and Germany, it would be in fought mainly in Poland for obvious reasons.

 

[Prem_Rack]

The key would be a shift in German policy. OTL the Nazis believed that the majority of Poles were suibhuman and only a minority racially worth saving (and in the long run Germanising). That coloured their view of what to do about Poland and led them to never even consider the idea of a serious alliance. If they were to believe that the Poles were by and large a Nordic people that only spoke a Slavic language by accident (they believed that about the Wends and Sorbs), an alliance becomes possible. There still is the matter of territorial claims, but since this would obviously be an alliance of necessity, Warsaw might be willing to forgo the Corridor in return for protection from a Soviet invasion if offered on those terms. The Finlandisation of POland, if you will.

I don't think there were any racial reasons stopping wars. Hitler had no problem working with Croatians, Slovaks or Romanians when it was suitable to him, and they were hardly more "Aryan" than Poles.

 

[Fenwick]

I don't think there were any racial reasons stopping wars. Hitler had no problem working with Croatians, Slovaks or Romanians when it was suitable to him, and they were hardly more "Aryan" than Poles.

If the SS found Aryans in the Ukraine then they can find them in Poland too.

 

[Faeelin]

Everybody criticizes Polish policy, but you're all forgetting you do it with a benefit of a hindsight. In 1939 nobody suspected there would be an alliance between Hitler and Stalin. After all comunism and nazism were mortal enemies.

Did nobody remember Rapallo, which was enthusiastically supported by the German right?

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Vault-Scope

Simple, would Poland side with Germany, war with France and Britain is averted in 1939. In exchange for Dantzig, Polish gov would take over Lithuania.
In 1940 (or 1941), axis offensive starts from Romanian, Latvian and Polish territories. For axis membershipe, they would gain western or southern part of the "ukrainian" SSR (rest going to Germany, of course), obtaining an opening to the black sea in the process.
In 41-42, a few millions Poles would be relocated from areas Germany had in 1914, then sent them to newly conquered territories.
Polish gov would have no moral issues whatsoever about it, in fact Poland might progressively become a missing link between Ustashee Croatia and axis Romania.

Poland giving up its territories which had beloged to Germany before 1914 would have been as if Spain gave up Castille or Aragon, France gave up Aquitaine or US gave up New England. Posen region (known also as Great Poland) was a birthplace of Polish state (in Gniezno) inhabited by milions of Poles who wouldn't have been happy with some bizarre idea of translocation. No Polish goverment would have ever agreed to it, and if it had tried it would have had a national uprising on its head.
Poland might have swallowed giving up Danzig (they had Gdynia, after all) but not Pomeranian Corridor, even in exchange for Lithuania. Unofficially Germany proposed similar solution IOTL, but Poles weren't interested.
Besides, Poland had an alliance with France and an alliance with Germany would have meant loosing French support and relying totally on word of not exactly trustworthy politician who many times had spoken about Lebensraum in the east. Guess what lies east of Germany?

Hovewer, it was clear that if there was a war between the soviet-union and Germany, it would be in fought mainly in Poland for obvious reasons.

IF. Poles knew where exactly such a war would have taken place and they weren't particularly interested in it either. They weren't interested in any war at all.

Originally posted by Faeelin

Did nobody remember Rapallo, which was enthusiastically supported by the German right?

You're right, but Hitler was so rabidly anti-communist that nobody actually suspected an open alliance between him and Stalin. It takes two to tango, and people believed Stalin would never ally himslef with Hitler. Besides, Rapallo was in 1922 IIRC.

 

[Faeelin]

Besides, Poland had an alliance with France and an alliance with Germany would have meant loosing French support and relying totally on word of not exactly trustworthy politician who many times had spoken about Lebensraum in the east. Guess what lies east of Germany?

Though note the French came this close to ditching Poland.

You're right, but Hitler was so rabidly anti-communist that nobody actually suspected an open alliance between him and Stalin. It takes two to tango, and people believed Stalin would never ally himslef with Hitler. Besides, Rapallo was in 1922 IIRC.

And followed up with a decade of economic ties and military collaboration. Certainly I can't see the MR Pact was so surprising when many of the biggest advocates of Russo-German collaboration were still around...

 

[Markus]

Actually the polish regime and the Nazis were good friends as late as March 39, the friendship wasn´t too deep, but that can be changed. Here is how:

In 1918 the Poles realized one day, some day Germany and Russia will be strong again, so pissing off both is not a good idea! FM Pilsudski IIRC was rather interested in an eastward expansion, so the government is doing it´s best to keep the border with Germany quite, much to the dissatisfaction of the local polish radicals.

The Germans return the favour in 1920, when the Poles seem to loose the war with the USSR. Given the very moderate territorial claims of Poland, the USSR is seen as the far more dangerous enemy (which it actually was). German military and economic aid ensures a crushing defeat of the Red Army. This and the pressure from Britain and France to end the war ASAP is duly noted in Warsaw.

Than there is the Danzig Compromise. Poland okays Danzig´s formal return to Germany, while keeping the corridor. Of course Germany is allowed to build an extraterritorial railroad line to Danzig and East Prussia, while goods from Poland are not subject to customs inspection in the port of Danzig. A port which booms due to the polish im- and exports.

Equally important but more hush-hush is the secret military cooperation between Germany and Poland. Tanks, planes, poison gas … everything the ToV bans in Germany is tested in Poland.

And last but not least German Nazis and Polish militarists decide it´s time to take care of some unfinished business; the f…ing Communists. In 1940 Germany, Poland and Romania launch a joined invasion of the USSR over the lukewarm protests of the UK and France. Actually it´s just the governments protesting, quite a few people are overjoyed to see communism´s destruction.