This came out of reading a book about the invasion plans (that were never implemented). Comments welcome.
What if Germany invaded Malta in 1942?
What actually happened?
Historically, Malta was a major thorn in the German side throughout the Mediterranean War. Aircraft and ships based on the island could and did harass German and Italian shipping travelling between Italy and Libya, making it difficult for the Germans to keep Rommel supplied and ensuring the Germans could not launch a major offensive that would drive all the way to Egypt. The Germans considered ways to invade the island, and drew up plans to carry out an invasion in 1942, but never risked carrying it out. The Invasion of Crete had been costly enough to put even Hitler off the idea of airborne invasions, and the whole concept was dropped after El Alamein and Stalingrad.
What Might Have Happened?
The Germans decide to risk the invasion.
The odds were not as badly stacked against them as it may seem. Malta was constantly on the verge of running out of supplies and being forced to surrender, even without a major invasion. The Royal Navy took immense losses bringing supplies to the island and could easily have lost too many ships to continue. If there was an invasion, it would take time for ships based at each end of the Mediterranean to reach Malta and intervene. Let us assume that the Germans launched one final gamble and land a major force on the island, prolonging the fight long enough for Italian ships to arrive with reinforcements and the defenders to literally run out of ammunition. If that happens before the Royal Navy can intervene, Malta is likely to surrender. In this timeline, the island does.
The Germans and Italians move more troops to the island, mainly Italian, and deport as many civilians as possible, particularly the ones who are disinclined to swear loyalty to Fascist Italy. Malta is not particular useful as an airbase for the Axis, at least at first, but the island does make easier to ship supplies to Rommel and keep the British from sinking supply ships, while also making it harder for the British to get supplies to Egypt. Convoys from Britain now have to go around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than passing through the Mediterranean, and that means the British can no longer reinforce and replenish their troops so effectively. Rommel is still outmassed by his enemies, but the gap between them is not as wide as the British would prefer.
The defeat is minor, in cold-blooded terms, but it adds to a sense that the British Empire is steadily falling and Britain itself is no longer capable of waging war. FDR does not believe that that is actually true, but many of his generals and admirals believe the British are a spent force; afraid to confront the Germans even in a theatre where they have all the cards in their hands. This is not particular fair, and FDR knows it, but even a powerful president has to be careful when arguing with his military officers and political opponents. America is still committed to the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, but she is more determined to end the matter as quickly as possible - through an invasion of France and then an offensive into Germany - rather than the more careful strategy proposed by Britain. Matters are only made worse by Rommel thrusting east, driving into Egypt, triggering off an uprising and forcing the British to the Suez Canal. His logistics are a shoestring, and they start to fray as the RAF goes on the offensive, but it looks very good on paper. Mussolini gets to ride into Alexandria on a white horse, as he wished.
The Germans don’t know it, but they have a second - unexpected and unappreciated - advantage. The invasion wiped out nearly all of the remaining airborne assault and transport aircraft, along with nearly all of their experienced pilots. The Germans bulked out their flying crews by using the training crews, which ensured that any losses meant they had to rebuild their training cadre from scratch. Their ability to supply their troops through air transport is effectively non-existent in this timeline and they know it. As their troops approach Stalingrad, and the Russians close the jaws of their trap, there is no hope of keeping the Stalingrad pocket supplied through air transport alone. Historically, this illusion contributed to the Germans refusing to try to break out from Stalingrad until it was too late. In this timeline, the Germans have no illusions and launch the operation as soon as they realise they are trapped. The Russians still have a major advantage in men and material, and the Germans get savaged, but they managed to save a sizeable number of the troops that were historically lost at Stalingrad. The Russians insist the battle was a major victory, and they’re not wrong, but it was nowhere near as decisive as the historical battle. The Germans are stronger as they go into 1943 and the Russians are weaker.
This makes harder for Germany’s allies to consider switching sides. Mussolini’s regime was historically tottering for quite some time after the defeats in North Africa and would eventually collapse in late 1943. In this timeline, Mussolini finds it easier to stay in power (as the Germans have not yet suffered a disastrous defeat) and his enemies are concurrently weakened. The same is true of the other allies on the eastern front, although the smarter ones are growing increasingly aware that they are increasingly outmatched by the Russians and the balance of power is slowly tipping against Nazi Germany. They start putting together contingency plans for switching sides, when they can do it without facing massive and brutal German retaliation.
The US/UK/USSR conferences in early 1943 are acrimonious. FDR wants to land in France as quickly as possible. Churchill is all too aware that an invasion would be dangerously premature; the British cannot afford to lose another army and the Americans are dangerously untrained and inexperienced in modern war. Stalin demands a second front as quickly as possible, one that might actually draw German troops away from Russia. Proposals for landing in French North Africa are shot down very quickly, if only because the Germans don’t have the ability to reinforce the French colonies very quickly; Stalin believes the Germans would simply write off North Africa because they’d have little other choice. After much arguing, they come to a decision; a major American force, with all the air and naval support Britain can spare, will aim to land in France in late 1943. The concept seems good, on paper, but is going to be a logistics nightmare. The only good news, as far as Churchill is concerned, is that decision means the USN will have to make a major commitment to opening the sea lanes between Britain and America.
This decision has a number of impacts, someone noticeable than others. There are fewer American troops for the Pacific, so the war becomes almost solely a naval war. The British forces in Palestine and Southern Egypt do not get massive reinforcements, which makes it harder to launch a counter-attack across the canal, but the Germans do not have the ability to cross the canal themselves and their one attempt to try gets slapped back hard. The Egyptians, meanwhile, are discovering the Germans are terrible masters; the Germans rapidly make themselves unwelcome, and crush any attempts at resistance with immense brutality. In the East, the war seesaws back-and-forth; Hitler still believes one more punch will be enough to knock the Russians out of the war for good, while the more sensible Germans suspect otherwise. The Russians have soaked up immense losses and kept coming.
Stalin himself is unsure just how he wants to proceed. His dream is Russia managing to dominate all of Europe. He is much more practical than Hitler and knows it is unlikely that the Germans will fold quickly enough to allow the Russians to liberate all of Europe without risking war with the British and Americans. If the Germans defeat the American invasion, it will weaken them badly, but also guarantee the Americans cannot launch another invasion until 1944 at the very earliest, which will allow Hitler time to constrict his forces against the USSR. Stalin is also very aware of the looming atomic bomb. His nightmare is German troops being deep within the USSR when the atomic bomb is used to force Germany to surrender, thus letting the Anglo-Americans claim all the booty without having to fight for it. This isn’t wholly realistic, but to him it is a very real fear. He has no moral issues about coming to terms with Germany, yet Hitler cannot be trusted. Stalin will only make peace with Germany if he sees no other choice.
The Germans are vaguely aware that the Americans are planning to invade. German sources within England have been silenced, or turned against their former masters, but the Germans still have enough air reconnaissance to determine that vast numbers of American troops arriving in Britain, along with enough equipment to mount an invasion. They start taking some precautions, such as setting up more defence lines in France, but there are limits to how many troops they can send with the vast majority of their army tied up in Russia, fighting for an illusionary and elusive victory.
The Americans open secret communications with Vichy France. If the French can be convinced to join the allies when the Americans invade, the invasion will be a great deal easier. Vichy France is unsure which way to jump. There are factions within the Vichy France government that believe they can find a place within the Nazi order, and others that are genuinely fascistic, and still others that hate the Germans but fear them too. Their nightmare is an invasion that is rapidly defeated, leaving Vichy France to face the Germans alone. They have no illusions about their relative weakness. If the Germans deploy even a relatively small force, Vichy France will lose and lose badly. The French are all too aware of how the Germans treat the countries they occupy, and many in Vichy feel that they’re all that stands between the French population and the horrors of Nazi-occupied territories. They are not willingly helping the Germans, but they think that if they don’t help the Germans they will just come in and take what they want anyway, brutalising the French population in the process. The French would be delighted if the Americans drove out the Germans. They’re just not convinced the Americans can.
Negotiations continue through mid 1943. Vichy Frane wants the Americans to land in sufficient force to guarantee France’s physical security. They also want lend lease supplies, guarantees for the French Empire, and agreement they will be treated as an allied government (an understanding that will alienate the Free French). The Americans are unable to meet most of the demands, for one reason or another. They do promise to bring in as many supplies as possible, as quickly as possible, and draw up plans for an Anglo-American landing in Southern France. The Germans catch wind of some of these plans, and start making preparations to deal with Vichy France as well as the incoming invasion. Ironically, they believe the invasion is likely to arrive in Southern France rather than Normandy. They assume the Americans intend to link up with Vichy France, and make a stand against invading German troops.
The invasion begins, as planned. Anglo-American naval and air forces bombard German positions and raid deep into France. French resistance forces cut wires, destroy railway lines, attack German supply dumps and do everything in their power to impede the German response. American Marines land in Normandy and establish a beachhead as quickly as possible, then advance further into France as the follow-up units start to land. The Germans are caught by surprise, but hastily counter-attack. German aircraft launch raids into the beachhead, discovering it is a very real invasion (Hitler originally thought it was a diversion because he was fixated on Southern France), and German troops are not far behind. The Americans get their first taste of German combined arms operations, and discover they don’t like it. The lead American spearheads get beaten by the Germans, and the Germans launch a series of counter-attacks. The allies have massive naval supremacy, however, and naval guns rain shells on the Germans as they try to destroy the beachhead. The fighting is savage in places, but by the end of the week the beachhead is solidly established. The Americans start bringing in reinforcements, preparing for an offensive into Northern France and Germany.
There are two major diversionary operations launched at the same time. In Egypt, British forces crossed the canal and drive back the Germans and Italians. Hitler has nothing to spare for Rommel and the Axis suits are forced to retreat. In the Mediterranean, British troops move towards Southern France. If Vichy invites them in, it might be the beginning of the end of the war …
What if Germany invaded Malta in 1942?
What actually happened?
Historically, Malta was a major thorn in the German side throughout the Mediterranean War. Aircraft and ships based on the island could and did harass German and Italian shipping travelling between Italy and Libya, making it difficult for the Germans to keep Rommel supplied and ensuring the Germans could not launch a major offensive that would drive all the way to Egypt. The Germans considered ways to invade the island, and drew up plans to carry out an invasion in 1942, but never risked carrying it out. The Invasion of Crete had been costly enough to put even Hitler off the idea of airborne invasions, and the whole concept was dropped after El Alamein and Stalingrad.
What Might Have Happened?
The Germans decide to risk the invasion.
The odds were not as badly stacked against them as it may seem. Malta was constantly on the verge of running out of supplies and being forced to surrender, even without a major invasion. The Royal Navy took immense losses bringing supplies to the island and could easily have lost too many ships to continue. If there was an invasion, it would take time for ships based at each end of the Mediterranean to reach Malta and intervene. Let us assume that the Germans launched one final gamble and land a major force on the island, prolonging the fight long enough for Italian ships to arrive with reinforcements and the defenders to literally run out of ammunition. If that happens before the Royal Navy can intervene, Malta is likely to surrender. In this timeline, the island does.
The Germans and Italians move more troops to the island, mainly Italian, and deport as many civilians as possible, particularly the ones who are disinclined to swear loyalty to Fascist Italy. Malta is not particular useful as an airbase for the Axis, at least at first, but the island does make easier to ship supplies to Rommel and keep the British from sinking supply ships, while also making it harder for the British to get supplies to Egypt. Convoys from Britain now have to go around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than passing through the Mediterranean, and that means the British can no longer reinforce and replenish their troops so effectively. Rommel is still outmassed by his enemies, but the gap between them is not as wide as the British would prefer.
The defeat is minor, in cold-blooded terms, but it adds to a sense that the British Empire is steadily falling and Britain itself is no longer capable of waging war. FDR does not believe that that is actually true, but many of his generals and admirals believe the British are a spent force; afraid to confront the Germans even in a theatre where they have all the cards in their hands. This is not particular fair, and FDR knows it, but even a powerful president has to be careful when arguing with his military officers and political opponents. America is still committed to the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, but she is more determined to end the matter as quickly as possible - through an invasion of France and then an offensive into Germany - rather than the more careful strategy proposed by Britain. Matters are only made worse by Rommel thrusting east, driving into Egypt, triggering off an uprising and forcing the British to the Suez Canal. His logistics are a shoestring, and they start to fray as the RAF goes on the offensive, but it looks very good on paper. Mussolini gets to ride into Alexandria on a white horse, as he wished.
The Germans don’t know it, but they have a second - unexpected and unappreciated - advantage. The invasion wiped out nearly all of the remaining airborne assault and transport aircraft, along with nearly all of their experienced pilots. The Germans bulked out their flying crews by using the training crews, which ensured that any losses meant they had to rebuild their training cadre from scratch. Their ability to supply their troops through air transport is effectively non-existent in this timeline and they know it. As their troops approach Stalingrad, and the Russians close the jaws of their trap, there is no hope of keeping the Stalingrad pocket supplied through air transport alone. Historically, this illusion contributed to the Germans refusing to try to break out from Stalingrad until it was too late. In this timeline, the Germans have no illusions and launch the operation as soon as they realise they are trapped. The Russians still have a major advantage in men and material, and the Germans get savaged, but they managed to save a sizeable number of the troops that were historically lost at Stalingrad. The Russians insist the battle was a major victory, and they’re not wrong, but it was nowhere near as decisive as the historical battle. The Germans are stronger as they go into 1943 and the Russians are weaker.
This makes harder for Germany’s allies to consider switching sides. Mussolini’s regime was historically tottering for quite some time after the defeats in North Africa and would eventually collapse in late 1943. In this timeline, Mussolini finds it easier to stay in power (as the Germans have not yet suffered a disastrous defeat) and his enemies are concurrently weakened. The same is true of the other allies on the eastern front, although the smarter ones are growing increasingly aware that they are increasingly outmatched by the Russians and the balance of power is slowly tipping against Nazi Germany. They start putting together contingency plans for switching sides, when they can do it without facing massive and brutal German retaliation.
The US/UK/USSR conferences in early 1943 are acrimonious. FDR wants to land in France as quickly as possible. Churchill is all too aware that an invasion would be dangerously premature; the British cannot afford to lose another army and the Americans are dangerously untrained and inexperienced in modern war. Stalin demands a second front as quickly as possible, one that might actually draw German troops away from Russia. Proposals for landing in French North Africa are shot down very quickly, if only because the Germans don’t have the ability to reinforce the French colonies very quickly; Stalin believes the Germans would simply write off North Africa because they’d have little other choice. After much arguing, they come to a decision; a major American force, with all the air and naval support Britain can spare, will aim to land in France in late 1943. The concept seems good, on paper, but is going to be a logistics nightmare. The only good news, as far as Churchill is concerned, is that decision means the USN will have to make a major commitment to opening the sea lanes between Britain and America.
This decision has a number of impacts, someone noticeable than others. There are fewer American troops for the Pacific, so the war becomes almost solely a naval war. The British forces in Palestine and Southern Egypt do not get massive reinforcements, which makes it harder to launch a counter-attack across the canal, but the Germans do not have the ability to cross the canal themselves and their one attempt to try gets slapped back hard. The Egyptians, meanwhile, are discovering the Germans are terrible masters; the Germans rapidly make themselves unwelcome, and crush any attempts at resistance with immense brutality. In the East, the war seesaws back-and-forth; Hitler still believes one more punch will be enough to knock the Russians out of the war for good, while the more sensible Germans suspect otherwise. The Russians have soaked up immense losses and kept coming.
Stalin himself is unsure just how he wants to proceed. His dream is Russia managing to dominate all of Europe. He is much more practical than Hitler and knows it is unlikely that the Germans will fold quickly enough to allow the Russians to liberate all of Europe without risking war with the British and Americans. If the Germans defeat the American invasion, it will weaken them badly, but also guarantee the Americans cannot launch another invasion until 1944 at the very earliest, which will allow Hitler time to constrict his forces against the USSR. Stalin is also very aware of the looming atomic bomb. His nightmare is German troops being deep within the USSR when the atomic bomb is used to force Germany to surrender, thus letting the Anglo-Americans claim all the booty without having to fight for it. This isn’t wholly realistic, but to him it is a very real fear. He has no moral issues about coming to terms with Germany, yet Hitler cannot be trusted. Stalin will only make peace with Germany if he sees no other choice.
The Germans are vaguely aware that the Americans are planning to invade. German sources within England have been silenced, or turned against their former masters, but the Germans still have enough air reconnaissance to determine that vast numbers of American troops arriving in Britain, along with enough equipment to mount an invasion. They start taking some precautions, such as setting up more defence lines in France, but there are limits to how many troops they can send with the vast majority of their army tied up in Russia, fighting for an illusionary and elusive victory.
The Americans open secret communications with Vichy France. If the French can be convinced to join the allies when the Americans invade, the invasion will be a great deal easier. Vichy France is unsure which way to jump. There are factions within the Vichy France government that believe they can find a place within the Nazi order, and others that are genuinely fascistic, and still others that hate the Germans but fear them too. Their nightmare is an invasion that is rapidly defeated, leaving Vichy France to face the Germans alone. They have no illusions about their relative weakness. If the Germans deploy even a relatively small force, Vichy France will lose and lose badly. The French are all too aware of how the Germans treat the countries they occupy, and many in Vichy feel that they’re all that stands between the French population and the horrors of Nazi-occupied territories. They are not willingly helping the Germans, but they think that if they don’t help the Germans they will just come in and take what they want anyway, brutalising the French population in the process. The French would be delighted if the Americans drove out the Germans. They’re just not convinced the Americans can.
Negotiations continue through mid 1943. Vichy Frane wants the Americans to land in sufficient force to guarantee France’s physical security. They also want lend lease supplies, guarantees for the French Empire, and agreement they will be treated as an allied government (an understanding that will alienate the Free French). The Americans are unable to meet most of the demands, for one reason or another. They do promise to bring in as many supplies as possible, as quickly as possible, and draw up plans for an Anglo-American landing in Southern France. The Germans catch wind of some of these plans, and start making preparations to deal with Vichy France as well as the incoming invasion. Ironically, they believe the invasion is likely to arrive in Southern France rather than Normandy. They assume the Americans intend to link up with Vichy France, and make a stand against invading German troops.
The invasion begins, as planned. Anglo-American naval and air forces bombard German positions and raid deep into France. French resistance forces cut wires, destroy railway lines, attack German supply dumps and do everything in their power to impede the German response. American Marines land in Normandy and establish a beachhead as quickly as possible, then advance further into France as the follow-up units start to land. The Germans are caught by surprise, but hastily counter-attack. German aircraft launch raids into the beachhead, discovering it is a very real invasion (Hitler originally thought it was a diversion because he was fixated on Southern France), and German troops are not far behind. The Americans get their first taste of German combined arms operations, and discover they don’t like it. The lead American spearheads get beaten by the Germans, and the Germans launch a series of counter-attacks. The allies have massive naval supremacy, however, and naval guns rain shells on the Germans as they try to destroy the beachhead. The fighting is savage in places, but by the end of the week the beachhead is solidly established. The Americans start bringing in reinforcements, preparing for an offensive into Northern France and Germany.
There are two major diversionary operations launched at the same time. In Egypt, British forces crossed the canal and drive back the Germans and Italians. Hitler has nothing to spare for Rommel and the Axis suits are forced to retreat. In the Mediterranean, British troops move towards Southern France. If Vichy invites them in, it might be the beginning of the end of the war …
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