Was the Spanish-American War or a Spanish-[insert nation here] War unavoidable? I'm wondering how good the odds are of Spain staving off conflict with a more powerful nation until they throw in the towel and are prepared to sell their Pacific colonies to the Germans.
Was the Spanish-American War or an Analogue Unavoidable?
- Thread starter Rush Tarquin
- Start date
Depends on the PODs; you might end up with no USA at all, or a better 19th century for the Spanish.
In fact you might keep the USA far more isolationist for a bit longer; the rise of the imperialist elements in the government wasn't set in stone.
In fact you might keep the USA far more isolationist for a bit longer; the rise of the imperialist elements in the government wasn't set in stone.
Well, I'm assuming largely the same interests and for America to be largely the same country. I suppose mine was a question about probabilities, though I know this forum prefers to focus on the structure side in the structure-agency debate and to deal with inevitabilities given a certain set of facts.
I suppose an important secondary question is, do you think the Spanish-American War was an inevitability OTL?
If Maine was just an unhappy accident, were the interests pushing for war powerful enough to get their way even without an igniting incident? Were McKinley and the speaker capable of solving the situation diplomatically absent such an incident.
What other powers might then seek to snatch up Spain's colonies and would they have the political will and capacity to do so? What might deter them?
Wasn't really meant to be an AHC, but if you want a POD, is there some minor tweaking in the decade leading up to the OTL war which could avert the conflict and potential conflicts with other major powers for long enough?
1. Inevitability: No to the Spanish-American War, Yes to an Analogue. The events that led up to the Spanish-American War was definitely a windfall for America, but America was now ready to expand abroad: the same-old "we're better than the natives" logic definitely hadn't died in the West at this point in time, and given that yellow journalism was a major factor in the call for war it seems it was pretty likely the U.S. would be willing to attack someone, and Spain made a good target given how sickly it had become (for those who disagree, please note that this forum often debates over whether or not the C.S.A. could take Spain, meaning that the C.S.A. plus the Union equals a pretty definite chance for an American victory).
2. Capability of Solving the Dispute: Yes, it could have been easily solved. If the U.S. had gone to war with every nation that attacked its ships, it would have fought Britain and France 100 times by now. The difference was the public didn't want to (almost like a reverse FDR).
3. Other Powers: Japan annexing the Philippines is probably the most common war in AH and the most likely war if America doesn't fight the Spanish. The only other pieces worth taking were Cuba and Puerto Rico, and I have a hard time seeing that going to anyone else through a war. You could always sell it, but I think the Spanish would want to hold onto them for as long as possible.
4. Averting Conflict: Reducing the interest in American expansionism/American confidence (prolonged Civil War equals a more weary and damaged U.S.) while convincing the Japanese that they can't take Spain either because they are exhausted from the Russo-Japanese War or the Russo-Japanese War doesn't happen and Japan fears a coalition of European powers if they try to annex the Philippines. Exhaustion from the Russo-Japanese War is the most plausible.
The Dude
Banned
It is far from unavoidable, but if you don't change too much, you can probably have it happen. By 1898, the United States was an industrial power looking to prove itself. Spain was a declining country with numerous colonies quite close the United States. Assuming you have both of those things, war is likely.
The funny thing is that with conditions being more favorable for Spain in the 19th century, it could have stood a chance at winning said war.
That was one of the best things in A Prussian on the Spanish Throne.
Of course, if Spain were in a significantly stronger position the war might not have happened in the first place. The US would not be as sanguine about the possibility of war with Spain if TTL's Spain isn't a weak and declining power.
Do you guys have any recommendations on the most plausible or detailed timeline depicting a Japanese acquisition of the Philippines from Spain?
(I was contemplating having the Philippines annexed by Japan from Germany anyway.)
(I was contemplating having the Philippines annexed by Japan from Germany anyway.)
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I think the spanish were trying their best to keep their prized possesions in the east the Spanish could have lost the Philippines during the Dagohoy and the Diego Silang rebellions but had those rebellions succeded the Philippines would be Balkanized...
And of course the dutch could war with Spain to gain control of the Philippines taking advantage of the unrest there..
And of course the dutch could war with Spain to gain control of the Philippines taking advantage of the unrest there..
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