USSR wins moon race

First, assume that what happened on Apollo 13 happens on Apollo 11.
This should push America's first landing into 1970 (pedants will say that Kennedy's "before this decade is out" deadline is December 31, 1970).
If you butterfly the N1 to be more successful, can you get a Russian on the Moon before Apollo 12? Who would this Russian be? How does it affect space exploration afterwards?
 
First question does the crew get back?,

(1)if yes the crew can provide input and the CM tapes can be reviewed (like AS-13), this gives NASA the ability to make fixes and more confidence into the rest of the stack NASA might just go ahead with Apollo-12 on schedule, NASA how has a proved contingency "lifeboat" plan that can get the crew home...

(2) CM not does get home, which means, Crew lost , then there's a longer pause to review procedures, and the flight data (that data they have), basically figure is out. They still may try to get AS-12 off before 31DEC 69, never forget NASA was an organization run by Flight test/ Fighter pilots and engineers (who had mostly been Fighter pilots and flight test pilots) they always expected to lose astronauts, just like flight test.

Key here is now close/ready are the Russians? If INTEL thinks they're going to try something (yes, we know the Russians were not ready even to flight test mission, let alone a landing,) but this 1969, INTEL "assessed" the Russian's didn't have the ability but it was still … "just INTEL," and we'd been surprised before.... NASA with White House approval (which would be the long pole in the tent), goes ahead, fixes the issues it knows about. In the this case I'd image that the time on the surface would be shorter than the AS11 plan, plant the flag, get a sample or two and head home, and hour?. Note, NASA had "first landing failure plans" that included moving the AS-12 launch up as much as 10 weeks, if there was a possible Russian moon landing/flyby try.

** Remember NASA and DoD always assumed they would have "mission failures," along the way (see Gemini VIII)and was prepared to move on...an get to the moon.

" How does it affect space exploration afterwards?

Likely both programs get scaled back... either side "wanted" to spend the money (and the Russian's didn't have the money for a real space race....)

Maybe you get AS-18 and AS-19, or you get Skylab 5, but then your out of SATURNs and Apollos...so it becomes our timeline...
 
Always mars for the win.. That's the problem with political benchmarks.. They just raise the bar toll they can claim victory
 
Even if the Hammer and Sickle, then Lenin, look down on Earth from Luna the US will find another way to be great. A permanent moon presence, going to Mars, accelerating what will become Skylab... the US will find a new project.
 
Even if the Hammer and Sickle, then Lenin, look down on Earth from Luna the US will find another way to be great. A permanent moon presence, going to Mars, accelerating what will become Skylab... the US will find a new project.
If its not the moon.. Its Mars...a benchmark will be reset until someone concedes the outer void.

Seriouslly up until the moon the soviets had almost every first. We declared victory because we got to the moon, when in fact they were ahead in most things spacewise
 
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Vaporized

Banned
The United States will just do other projects like the firs space shuttle, first orbital space station, first base on the Moon. It will find some way to top it. The Soviet Union won't be able to continue to afford a space program by the 1980s anyway. There is plenty they can do to trounce what happened.
 
First, assume that what happened on Apollo 13 happens on Apollo 11.
This should push America's first landing into 1970 (pedants will say that Kennedy's "before this decade is out" deadline is December 31, 1970).
If you butterfly the N1 to be more successful, can you get a Russian on the Moon before Apollo 12? Who would this Russian be? How does it affect space exploration afterwards?

Short answer is "no", as I see it, even if the Soviets get super lucky, the soonest they can be ready is 1972. More likely getting the rocket right would take until 1974 or 1975. And that's assuming that the real tricky parts of the program for the Americans (the LEM, the spacesuits, the Apollo capsule) are not tricky for the Soviets. I am not confident of that, since the mass margins on the capsule and the lander were brutally tight.

Also, the Soviets beating the US to the first landing probably wouldn't change much. Apollo 8 is probably the more important one to beat (and one the Soviets have much more capability to do, though it requires some luck).

Also, the Apollo 13 accident happening to Apollo 8 would kill the crew, which could be cause for a much longer operational pause.

And we're discussing in more depth over here what it would take to get the Soviets on the moon first (mixed in with the discussions about whether or not the US would then try a Mars program to top the Soviets).

Personally, I don't see how much would change, even with the Soviets landing the first man on the moon. Going on to build moonbases or launch Mars missions is just crazy expensive and will require very long commitments by the politicians who are approving the funding for these things. So at most, I think we'd see a more aggressive US program in the 70s, with a space station and some way to make access to space cheaper (like the Shuttle was supposed to be). There's just no way with the US economy in the state it was and the Vietnam War growing more and more expensive that the US would continue Apollo-level spending and the Soviets were so much poorer than the US, they don't have money to waste.

fasquardon
 
Even if not much would change, the cultural effects would be pretty big. Moon landing conspiracies will become more mainstream in America, especially on the far-right.
 
Even if the Hammer and Sickle, then Lenin, look down on Earth from Luna the US will find another way to be great. A permanent moon presence, going to Mars, accelerating what will become Skylab... the US will find a new project.
This. The impact would be much greater than Sputnik, and the US will always have greater industrial and scientific capacity than the USSR with a post-1945 PoD, and probably with just about any post-1900 PoD. NASA would simply move the goalposts.

Given the impact of the Apollo Guidance Computer on the OTL production of silicon integrated circuits, do you think the panic resulting from a Soviet moon landing would accelerate the development of computers in the 1970s?
 
The United States will just do other projects like the firs space shuttle, first orbital space station, first base on the Moon. It will find some way to top it. The Soviet Union won't be able to continue to afford a space program by the 1980s anyway. There is plenty they can do to trounce what happened.

Why not.. A more hard on space program is a great outlet to building crap tons of nukes.

There would be butterfly's
 
This. The impact would be much greater than Sputnik, and the US will always have greater industrial and scientific capacity than the USSR with a post-1945 PoD, and probably with just about any post-1900 PoD. NASA would simply move the goalposts.

Given the impact of the Apollo Guidance Computer on the OTL production of silicon integrated circuits, do you think the panic resulting from a Soviet moon landing would accelerate the development of computers in the 1970s?

During said time frame the soviets and Americans were technological equals - the gap didn't widen until the mid 70s

Whatbisbtonsay a more successful Soviet space program for the moon doesn't bare similar fruit either in house or via other means.

Industrially the soviets were also on par with the capability to produce mass quantities of widgets. The education system also was no slacker - that's western bias speaking

Prevent the oil crises or at least soften it.. Keep the export market open, get brezhnev out sometime late early 70s.

Obviously the butterfly's would be sooner as getting the N1 to work correctly is going to be a major hurdle.

But still.. Iys bias that says the soviets were behind
 
We've had some good threads of Soviet Lunar landing getting there first, that did not require such an accident to strike Apollo 11--in other words, it beat Apollo 11's OTL schedule.

The key in the one I am thinking of, named Red Star, was the Kremlin committing to a less ambitious target for N1, at an earlier date, and committing to actually going forward with this scaled back N1 earlier. Basically they omit the center six engines (which only were supposed to burn 31 seconds!) and accept a lower LEO payload--as originally conceived by Korolev's design team, N1 was supposed to be a heavy space station component launcher, not a moonship.

By that TL's diagnosis, which I think was reasonable, N1 of OTL was doomed because it was overambitious and also committed to too late. Not being able to do much to stretch the already quite gigantic stack, Mishin, Korolev's successor, pushed to lighten it instead, in order to squeeze in enough margin for a lunar Soyuz/LK stack pretty analogous to the Apollo CSM/LM stack in some ways--save that the upper stage of the N-1 would serve to brake the pair into LLO, and then IIRC have propellant left to push the Soyuz alone back toward Earth.

There is every reason to question whether LK was adequate to the job, being slashed in size and requiring a crasher stage to descend. The process of lightening the N-1 enough to enable it to push even this shrunken stack to TLI was fatal.

Now suppose we have a more robust but heavier N-1 of slightly reduced maximum thrust, which cannot by itself put even the dangerously ultralight Soyuz-LK combination into orbit along with the upper stages needed for TLI.

Here comes the clever bit--instead, the program went in the ATL story to two N-1 launches. The first one would place an LK and crasher stage into LLO, to wait there, for a second N-1 launch enabling a crewed Soyuz to proceed independently to the Moon, there to enter LLO and rendezvous with the LK.

In this way, both the Soyuz and LK, along with their respective propelling stages, can be more massive, while the N1 can be a bit simpler and more robust. To make it to the Lunar landing before Apollo 11 it also needs to be authorized much earlier, but perhaps it would work to have the space station launcher version approved quite early in the '60s; perhaps a POD could be that Korolev consolidates his position as the master of the Soviet space program with fewer rivals, and the regime commits to the "N" system as the immediate successor to the R-7 upgrades that were Vostok and Soyuz rockets, with a plan to develop a large space station from components launched on the early draft version of N1.

It should be noted, N1 was part of a larger scheme, in which a smaller rocket that essentially would be N1 minus its first stage would take the place of roughly the Proton rocket OTL. The advantage being, it would have been possible to first develop this smaller rocket, typically described as N2, testing out all the upper stack of N1, before developing the supersized N1 first stage.

By accepting that N1 could not be stretched to match a Saturn V type performance, but SpaceX style relying on the economies going with production of many instances of the same engine in large numbers (N1 would use 30 engines, in the ATL reduced or rather with designers refusing to raise it beyond 24, on the first stage, IIRC 8 of essentially the same engine on the second stage (a variant with longer vacuum optimized nozzle) and one of those engines again on the third stage) I think it just might have been possible, as in the TL, for the Soviets to get a one cosmonaut LK down just before Apollo 11 was possible.
 
During said time frame the soviets and Americans were technological equals - the gap didn't widen until the mid 70s

No! The Soviets were very far from technological equals of the US. There are a few fields they were ahead in (especially metallurgy), some they had parity in, but in most areas Soviet technology was behind or far behind the US. It's no great surprise. The Soviets had a different system from most of the world, so the most effective means of technological transfer (your engineers go there and work with the technology for a bit or their engineers who know the technology come to you and work for a bit - which is most usually done between capitalist countries by way of corporate subsidiaries setting up in your country or of simple purchase of intellectual property) were precluded by simple system mismatch.

One specific area, for example, is in chemical industries, the Soviets couldn't produce as wide a variety of chemicals, like fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, plastics, fire retardants, pharmaceuticals, gasoline additives and on and on. The chemical etching process that Douglas Aircraft Corporation introduced to etch a waffle-grid pattern in the aluminium of the propellant tanks of the Thor missile in the 1950s would not be duplicated in the USSR until the 1970s.

But still.. Iys bias that says the soviets were behind

No, it most certainly isn't. Objectively, they were behind. The US started racing for the moon 5 years before the Soviets did. The Soviets at first figured it was some crazy misinformation. The idea that the practical Americans would spend 10s of billions to just land some guys on the moon before them was just too nuts. What was the practical purpose? Then, around 1965/1966 the Soviets began to realize that the Americans really were serious, that they really were willing to spend enough money to fight a small war in order to prove that they could into space better than the Ruskies.

But not only did the Soviets start the race late, they were in relative terms underfunded, because the Soviet Union to its dying day was what we would call now a "developing country" - they needed their resources for new houses, better hospitals, better schools, modern factories, new technology, new roads, new railways, new canals, not to mention the weapons to defend themselves against an alliance that included every single major economically developed state on the planet. Add to that, unlike the Americans, who re-organized their entire aerospace sector to effectively manage the effort to land men on the moon, the Soviets were going through a regime change as Brezhnev consolidated power after Khrushchev's ouster in 1964 and the chief designers of the various aerospace enterprises would not cooperate because they all wanted to go to the moon their way, not the other guy's way. So there was no top-down organization or bottom-up organization keeping everyone coordinated. Not only were resources wasted on duplicate efforts and pointless infighting, but Brezhnev and co were considering whether they needed to dismantle the organizations of the two designers most connected to Khrushchev - Korolev and Chelomei. The very men who were doing the most work to get men on the moon.

The key in the one I am thinking of, named Red Star, was the Kremlin committing to a less ambitious target for N1, at an earlier date, and committing to actually going forward with this scaled back N1 earlier.

I still think Red Star is an amazing TL. It, along with Eyes Turned Skywards, definitely raised the bar for space alternate history when it was written, but I think it is also implausible. It doesn't give a plausible answer for why the Soviets would make the political choices they do and I think it is generally overly generous to the Soviets in terms of how they easily develop some pieces of hardware that probably would have taken more time and resources than the TL assumes.

It is a fun read, I encourage everyone here to go read it, but don't come away from reading the fun story thinking that this is a likely alternative.

fasquardon
 
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