TLIAW: Six inches or so...

One day, a man came close to death. Within six inches in fact. Such an event is not wholly remarkable.

Millions come close to death, every day. A moment’s hesitation, one step in the wrong direction. That is the distance between life and death. Coming within six inches is of little note.

But what if you were to move things six inches or so?

Maybe little, maybe nothing.

Thousands die every day. Most are missed; their absence a tragedy for those close to them. Some aren’t missed at all; their death might even be celebrated. That is a tragedy all its own.

Either way, the wider world probably won’t take any notice. One man more or less makes little difference, except in rare cases and even then it will eventually be agreed that wider forces were responsible for whatever happened. Events would have followed the same path, more or less, whether the man lived or died. In the broad sweep of history, one man is much like another.

This may be true, broadly speaking. But the devil is in the details.

A certain day, a certain man and a certain place. Life or death can make a difference. The fate of the kingdom is in the hands of the rider and much rests on whether his horse was properly shod that morning.

To reiterate, one day a man came within inches of death.

Let’s move things a few inches.

Will it make any difference?

Maybe, maybe not.

But I’m curious all the same…
 
I have some questions…

All too happy to answer them, my fine fellow.

First of all, who are you?

I’m Alberto Knox.

Why should I care?

Well, I’ll admit I’ve done little of note here on the site. My last attempt at a serious timeline was almost a decade ago and, frankly, it was an utter shambles. I’ve been lurking for quite a while now, but something has stirred in me of late. I want to change my ways and really start making a contribution.

So you decided this was the way to go?

What do you mean?

This ‘TLIA…’ bandwagon came to town some time ago, isn’t it a little late to jump on now? Particularly with this introduction style?

Better late than never?

Hmm…next question…

By all means…

What is this TL about?

Now really, what was the point of that vague and ominous introduction if I just tell you what’s going to happen?

You seem to be asking almost as many questions as I am…

No one gave you a monopoly on them.

Can we at least get a hint or two?

Well, the introduction at least made clear that it rests on a matter of life and death. Also, it revolves around British politics.

That hardly narrows it down…

I know.
 
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OP: When you refer to a horse, is that a literal horse? Or is it a "for the want of a nail" metaphor?

When you speak of six inches the first thought that occurs to me is a gunshot or stab wound to the chest -- you know, six inches to the right and it's directly in the heart. But I can think of other meanings. I'm looking forward to finding out. You've written suspense very well there.
 

Page last updated at 15:55 GMT, Thursday, 6 May 2010 16:55 UK


Nigel Farage killed in plane crash on election day


The former UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage was found dead after his plane crashed in Northamptonshire.


The aircraft came down at Hinton-in-the-Hedges Airfield near Brackley.

Cause of death has been determined to be a broken neck, sustained upon impact. Pilot, Justin Adams, is alive and in hospital.

It is thought the aircraft came down when a trailing campaign banner became entangled.

Due to these events, polling has been suspended in Buckingham, where Mr. Farage was standing as a parliamentary candidate.


'Trapped in wreckage'


Party leader Lord Pearson made a statement, expressing his own shock and sorrow, as well extending his sympathies to Mr Farage’s family.

He said: "A great tragedy has befallen us on a day that we hoped would bring triumph, both for Nigel personally and our party as a whole. Nigel Farage was one man in a million and he will be sorely missed.

He continued: "We understand that the injuries to the pilot, Justin Adams, may be less serious than previously feared though we have been unable to speak to his family. We wish him a speedy recovery.

"Mr. Adams had a most fortunate escape and we should be grateful that today’s tragedy wasn’t greater still."

The aircraft was due to circle over Buckingham, where Mr Farage was standing as a candidate, trailing a banner, a UKIP spokesman said.

Mike Jose, Mr Farage's assistant, said they had previously flown the plane and banner over the constituency without any problems.

Surveying the mangled metal of the aircraft, Det Ch Insp Martin Kinchin, of Northamptonshire Police, said: "I think you can make your own judgment as to just how unlucky they were.


White banner


Describing how the crash happened, he said: "It is our belief that the plane had recently taken off from here and was manoeuvring back to the airfield."

When asked if the UKIP banner had become tangled in the aircraft, causing the crash, he said it was too early to speculate.

The white banner, which landed several hundred metres from the plane, had been attached to it previously, he confirmed.

A UKIP spokesman said the pair were trapped in the plane after the crash, the pilot hanging upside down. Mr. Farage had become dislodged from his seat and the force of the crash apparently broke his neck, killing him. The pilot, though obviously in “great distress”, was "talking, conscious and breathing" during the rescue operation. He is now recovering at John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford.

Mr Adams, who is also Mr Farage's campaign manager, said: "Apparently the plane nose-dived. We had a banner attached to the back of the plane which basically got wrapped around the tail.

"The pilot had sent out a May Day signal and it basically crash dived. It's all a bit of a shock, especially on polling day."

The airfield has now been closed and the crash is due to be investigated by the Air Accident Investigation Branch, Northamptonshire Police said.

The aircraft, a PZL-104 Wilga 35A, is a Polish fixed-wing aircraft which is reportedly owned by Sky Banners, in Walton-on-Thames, Surrey.


Polling suspended


Upon hearing confirmation of Mr. Farage’s passing, Andrew Grant, the Acting Return Officer for Buckingham, suspended polling in the constituency. This was in accordance with the provisions of the Electoral Administration Act 2006, regarding the death of a parliamentary candidate.

He said that this delay was “regrettable” but he wished to assure concerned constituency voters that the poll would resume “at the appropriate date”.

Mr. Farage was contesting the Buckingham seat against John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons seeking re-election. The suspension of the poll will mean he will not be a sitting member of the House when Parliament convenes later this month. This is understood to be an unprecedented scenario.

Mr. Bercow was unavailable for comment and his team are yet to release a statement in response to today’s events.


Mr Farage lead the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from September 2006 to November 2009 and was a Member of the European Parliament, representing South East England, from 1999 until his passing. He is survived by his wife, Kirsten Mehr, and four children (two by a previous marriage).
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I know one man who might be happy in this TL;

9_tim-congdon-profile.jpg
 
Wait, that's it?

What do you mean?

Don't you think your introduction was a bit...grandiose?

In hindsight, my tone may have been a touch verbose. I suspect there were some stray inspiration particles in the air that evening.

Frankly I think the Churchill idea sounded more interesting.

Well, perhaps another time. But we're doing this now, so do at least try and enjoy it.

Mumble grumble...
 
Mmm, interesting. So a very different trajectory for UKIP with potentially huge consequences. But immediately there's the question of John Bercow's Speakership, which could also be highly significant. Enjoying this!
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Mmm, interesting. So a very different trajectory for UKIP with potentially huge consequences. But immediately there's the question of John Bercow's Speakership, which could also be highly significant. Enjoying this!
It puts him into a pretty rough situation, but the blunt is that the poison dwarf will simply not be Speaker anymore. Assuming that the Coalition is still formed and Parliament convenes roughly the same time (18 May), the Speaker may end up being the previous Chairman of the Ways and Means, Alan Haselhurst.

It's also likely that the question of Speakership will become part of Coalition talks- Bercow has been delayed by a month, so either get someone temporary in, or just fully replace him with someone perceived as being more friendly to Cameron and friends.
 
The Aftermath

Despite a high profile and heavy on the day coverage, Farage’s death had little obvious impact or meaning for the United Kingdom.

'Obvious' is the key word.

There were ripples to be sure, but it would be some time before they were properly felt.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Though the Buckingham poll had been quickly suspended, the rest of the country (with the exception of Thirsk and Malton) continued unimpeded. Thus, as the British public walked into the polling stations, Nigel Farage was prominent in their thoughts. By and large, this made little difference but a combination of shock and non-specific guilt was enough to sway a few handfuls of floating voters. Though small compensation for their loss, the United Kingdom Independence Party experienced a small increase in their already improved vote share. It was, nonetheless, a point of interest only to statisticians, psephologists and the like, the added votes not being sufficient in number or geographically focused to shift any seats. Certainly not enough to see a UKIP gain. Such is the way of first-past-the-post.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The election night coverage, across channels, included brief Farage tribute pieces and short eulogies by the various talking heads of the night (these ranging from the sincere to the strained) but these were very much sideshows to the great drama that was unfurling. The first hung parliament in over 30 years.

The constitutional issues presented by a delayed poll in Buckingham, likewise, gained little attention on election night. While the matter was discussed several times over the evening it was always as a secondary matter and quickly glossed over by experts and interviewees who either didn’t appreciate the significance of the situation or did not wish to go on record giving an inaccurate (and potentially costly) view of it. Looking back, it has been speculated that if not for the dramatic nature of the election result, the matter would have been a more immediate focus and gained greater scrutiny from both the media and the public at large. As it was, attention was focused in the days after on the hung parliament and the inter-party negotiations over the formation of a government. When the matter finally came into focus on the 11th of May, what might have otherwise been merely an intriguing footnote in the history of parliamentary procedure was briefly transformed into a national cause célèbre.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the exception of friends and family, the loss of Farage was most keenly felt by the party with whom he was so intimately linked and identified. During a campaign stop at a pub in Buckingham, a UKIP supporter was thus quoted by a journalist from The Guardian:

If he [Farage] went under a bus tomorrow, we’d be buggered.”

While, in the event, a different vehicle was responsible, the sentiment was shared widely. Over the days immediately following the crash, there was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth as officials, members, and supporters all came to terms with the loss of their great champion.

But as the immediate shock subsided, certain senior individuals of a cooler and more detached perspective began to confer. This tragedy, no question that it was mind you, presented an interesting opportunity for the party.

The facts were these, as one or another of them may have laid them out:

1. The Buckingham seat was still up for grabs.

2. If Bercow was no longer Speaker when the poll was held, the voters could be more easily swayed to consider another candidate.

3. None of the major parties would be entering a candidate.

4. UKIP’s profile in the constituency would never be higher.

5. The party was in a position to devote substantial resources (that were distributed nationally during the election) to a focused campaign in a single seat.


The conclusion? With the right candidate and application of party resources, there was a real possibility of UKIP winning its first seat in Parliament. Even if one were less optimistic, a strong second would lend the party further electoral credibility that could be built upon for the future.

However the facts were presented, the leadership were convinced it was too good an opportunity to miss. Discussion quickly turned to the appropriate candidate to be presented to the constituency party for rubber-stamping.

It needed to be someone with some proven electoral success. For UKIP, that meant holding on to your deposit and thus the list was swiftly winnowed down. The other qualifications proved more difficult.

It needed to be someone with some existing notoriety. Someone who could appeal to the traditionally Conservative-leaning voters of Buckingham. Most importantly, in the event of their election, it needed to be someone that the party could rally around as a potential leader.

After some considerable debate, one name was finally agreed upon.

The appropriate steps were taken.

On Thursday 21st May, when other matters had already run their course, the (Acting) Returning Officer for Buckingham received the nomination papers of the UKIP constituency party. The name presented was that of Tim Congdon, recent party parliamentary candidate for Forest of Dean.
 
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shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
649 continued uninterrupted.
Sorry, but small quibble, but it would be 648 as the poll in Thirsk and Malton was delayed due to the death of the UKIP candidate.

Overall, good update, though given that Bercow is standing at the *Conservative candidate, he's more than likely going to retain the seat.
 
Sorry, but small quibble, but it would be 648 as the poll in Thirsk and Malton was delayed due to the death of the UKIP candidate.

Overall, good update, though given that Bercow is standing at the *Conservative candidate, he's more than likely going to retain the seat.

You're quite right to quibble. I should have known better. In fact, I did know better and am most irritated by the oversight. Have revised the offending sentence, as well as making some other small edits.

A Bercow victory is certainly the more likely scenario and UKIP know that. As was said, while overall victory would be best, a strong second would be almost as good.


A very interesting timeline. I love the name! And Congdon! Haven't seen him in AH for a while.

Thanks on all counts. The name was a whim, so I'm glad it has met with some approval.

While I did consider a couple of other people, it was very hard to resist putting Congdon in as the UKIP candidate. While he was obviously suited to the circumstances, I'll admit it was love of AndyC's 'Lectern' duology that ultimately swayed my decision.
 
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The Speaker of the British House of Commons election, 2010: Part I.

The prelude

While the formation of government obviously took precedence, the question of the Speakership was easily the second most important topic of discussion within the world of Westminster. Various schools of thought emerged on the matter but broadly they were divided into essentially two camps. One for Bercow’s return and one against.

The thinking of the former was that, given the Speaker’s absence was the result of unique and unforeseeable circumstances, every effort should be made to accommodate his return. Ideally, the election of the Speaker would be suspended until Bercow’s return, the Deputy Speakers filling his role until he could be reconfirmed. Failing this, if a new Speaker had to be elected, it should be one that would step aside for Bercow at the first possible opportunity. As it so often had before, the British constitution should bend to circumstance with the creation of an interim measure. This school of thought dominated within Labour, where Bercow had had support both for his election and tenure as Speaker, but had some supporters in all three of the major parties.

The latter school of thought dominated within the Conservative party, who had perceived Bercow’s tenure as biased against them. Their argument was based on strictly legalistic grounds. When Parliament convened, the Speaker’s Chair would be vacant. Regardless of the circumstances, procedure must be followed and a new Speaker elected.

After David Cameron’s appointment as Prime Minister, on 11th May, the British media turned its eye onto the question of the Speakership, hoping to draw out the speculative post-election coverage. The two camps finally came into the focus of the wider public and the matter swiftly became the tea-break topic of conversation, at least for those of a political bent.

By and large the public took more sympathy with the pro-Bercow point of view, this being particularly prominent among the chattering classes. When queried on the matter, many prominent pundits speculated that the Coalition (still finding its feet) would bend to popular pressure and seek to accommodate Bercow’s return to the Speaker’s seat.

In turn, the new Prime Minister’s reportedly antagonistic relationship with Bercow was raised in discussion by other professional speculators. It was suggested that Cameron and the Conservatives would take this unique opportunity to usurp the Speaker’s chair, either with one of their own or by supporting a Lib Dem candidate as a sop to their coalition partners. As the first meeting of parliament approached, rumours began to emerge in the newspapers that the question of the Speakership had been raised during the negotiations and a deal made.

These were, some retorted, unsupported conspiracy theories. David Cameron had shown his pragmatic streak since the election. Having embarked upon the first formal coalition government since the war, it would seem a foolish move to antagonise sections of both Parliament and the public by blocking Bercow.

Nonetheless, despite public positions, none of them knew exactly what would happen when Parliament met and, as the week passed, Westminster became increasingly tight-lipped.


The session

In more usual circumstances, the first meeting of the new parliament on the afternoon of 18th May should have been a brief affair. The Father of the House, Sir Peter Tapsell, would preside and, if not for an unfortunate set of circumstances, the session would have merely gone through the formality of asking Bercow if he was still willing to serve, followed by the ceremonial dragging of the member for Buckingham to the Speaker’s seat. The remainder of Parliamentary time before the Queen’s Speech would be spent electing other officers of the House and swearing in the Members.

But Bercow was not the member for Buckingham. No one was yet. Thus, in accordance with the provisions of Standing Order 1B, the House would now proceed to the election of a new Speaker by secret ballot.

I beg your pardon, that’s not entirely accurate. Before the house could proceed as such, a point of order was raised by a Labour back-bencher chosen for the thankless task of proposing a bending of the rules to accommodate circumstance.

Given Bercow’s near inevitable return to the House, as the honourable member put it, and his apparent willingness to return as Speaker, it would be improper to elect another due to technicalities arising from unforeseeable circumstances. Instead an interim solution was proposed:

The election of the Speaker should be held temporarily in abeyance. Instead, under Standing Order 2, the election of the Deputy Speakers would take place with the Father of the House continuing to hold the place of the Speaker for this purpose in accordance with Standing Order 1 (3).

Once the Deputy Speakers has been elected, Sir Peter would step down. The Chairman of Ways and Means, as the most senior deputy, would continue to carry out the functions of the Speaker of the House as per Standing Order 3 (2). When Mr. Bercow returned to the House, the election for the Speakership could proceed as it should have done.

The proposal resulted in much noise and consternation from the Government benches and a similar amount of Hear Hear’s from the Opposition. For the first time in a long while, it fell to the Father of the House to restore order and to make an important decision on procedure.

Sir Peter stated his view of the proposal in the clear and unambiguous manner his parliamentary career had been noted for. It is quoted in Hansard as follows:



Sir Peter Tapsell (in the Chair): The hon. Gentleman has made his point and I am confident that it has been heard, but it is not one that I would consider a proper course of action under the Standing Orders of the House, which he has taken such care in quoting. As I am sure he knows, Standing Order 1 (1) makes clear that the House must choose a new Speaker if the previous holder of the office ceases, for any reason, to be a member of the House. This being the case, I see no grounds for delaying this election and ask that we proceed to it forthwith.



The House fell into chaos again, this time the Opposition benches were the voice of anger and distress. The Father of the House was once again required to restore order so that business could properly proceed.

Compared against the ballot for the Speakership 10 months ago, the list of candidates was limited. Many of the previous candidates had either retired or lost their seats in the interim and the unusual circumstances of the election (as well as pressure from the party leaderships) meant few new names had come forward. Indeed, all the candidates were veterans of at least one Speakership election. Sir George Young, Bercow’s main opponent in 2009, was notable by his absence. He had made it publicly known he wished to focus on his government role as the newly appointed Leader of the House of Commons.

Before the vote, the candidates would have the opportunity to address the House and layout their reasons and credentials for seeking the Speakership. The order of speaking had been determined earlier that day by Sir Peter, via the drawing of lots:



Sir Alan Haselhurst
, had served as Chairman of Ways and Means before the election and had sought t, had the privilege of speaking first. Having begun by paying proper tribute to Sir Peter and his long career, he took the opportunity to emphasise his experience of managing the house and made the case that, in these unusual circumstances, it would be best to have a Speaker more familiar with the duties of the role. He took the opportunity to repeat a phrase from his speech in the previous Speaker’s election: ‘I know the job and I believe that I could do it well.’ He also assured the house that, in this new and dynamic parliament, he would seek to foster and encourage reform of House procedure.

Sir Alan Beith, former Deputy Leader of both the Liberal Party and the Liberal Democrats; as well as veteran of two Speakership elections spoke next. He revisited familiar themes of procedural reform, greater transparency of the Speaker’s administrative structure and a greater degree of openness and support by the Speaker for the members.

Margaret Beckett, the former Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, made the most memorable statement. Echoing Anne Widdecombe’s 2009 speech, she made clear her intention to only serve as an interim Speaker of the House of Commons. She frankly stated that she would only serve until Mr. Bercow was returned to the House, upon which she would resign in the hopes that the House would re-elect the man who had done such honour to the office of Speaker over the last year. It was not in the spirit of democracy or good government, she intoned, for such a man to be denied his office ‘on a technical irregularity’. Her speech was repeatedly heckled by the government backbenches, creating more work for the Father of the House.

Richard Shepherd, a Conservative back-bencher who had had the whip withdrawn after voting against the Maastricht treaty in 1992, spoke last. He took up his theme from the previous election, the need to re-evaluate the Standing Orders, which had now been thrown into such sharp relief. He also expressed the view that MPs from Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland should be afforded greater equality within the House, which he still felt to be lacking. He also repeated his statement from 2009 that, at next general election (whenever that might be) he would resign and contest his seat in the normal manner. This, given circumstances, may well have lost him support but Mr. Shepherd made clear that he wished, if elected, to be sure he held the confidence of his constituents as well as that of the House. It seemed to be a point of honour for the gentleman.



The speeches having been made, Sir Peter thanked the candidates and took the opportunity to explain, in brief, the manner in which the ballot would be conducted. Having done so, he declared the voting open.

This was at 3:20 pm, voting would be open for 30 minutes with Sir Peter hoping to have a result

There were many different hopes among the members as the filed into the Lobbies to cast their votes. The one almost universally held was that the business would not drag on too late.
 
An apology to those reading:

When undertaking this TLIAW, I overestimated the time I would have available for writing and the degree of writer's block I'd experience. As such, a week later, I find myself only halfway through what I intend to write. I should have given myself more time in the first place, it was an error on my part and I apologise.

I have sometimes, in jest, mentally translated 'TLIAW' as 'Timeline In A While' in reference to the sometimes flexible attitude to the time-frame that posters take. Unfortunately, I now find myself in a position where I must use that seriously.

While I hope it won't take more than another week, all I can say is that this will be done when it's done.

Sorry again.
 
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