The UK gets Catholic emancipation in 1800?

[Vinization]

When Ireland was admitted as a full member of the United Kingdom in 1800-1801, prime minister William Pitt the Younger wanted this to be combined with a law ensuring Catholic emancipation. The objective of this was to assuage any concerns that London would automatically side against Irish Catholics in any disputes with the Protestants.

Unfortunately, this plan was scuppered by George III's refusal to give it his assent, on the grounds that doing so would violate his coronation oath, and it wasn't until 1829 that emancipation became law. So what if Pitt got his way somehow, and emancipation was passed almost 30 years ahead of schedule? How would British politics be affected from that point onward? Would Pitt stay in power continuously until his death, instead of resigning in 1801? Would the Tories still split over the issue like IOTL, or not?

 

[Vinization]

Calling in @Thoresby, since he was very helpful in my thread about the Corn Laws.

 

[Thoresby]

British politics wouldn't be that affected in the short term, Addington initially followed Pitt's plans up to and including the Treaty of Amiens and it's breakdown would be just as inevitable so barring butterflies no change there. Once you get the resumption of the war butterflies will be adding up and as politics in this period was so dominated by how the war against France was going it is impossible to say more unless you write a proper tl. It's worth pointing out that despite his age Pitt was in notoriously poor health and a massive drinker so if he remains Premier I don't think he will make 1806 but will probably die sooner though I have no idea if Grenville would succeed him as in OTL, in fact without his failed Premiership and falling out with Pitt Addington might succeed Pitt on his death.

In terms of the big picture Catholic emancipation on the pre Reform Act franchise will at a guess only effect about 40 Irish seats at this time, while a much larger proportion of Irish seats had Catholic majorities in their overall population, the patterns of wealth distribution would mean Protestant majorities in the remaining 60. In those 40 seats (basically the One's where the Repeal Association won in 1832) where there are Catholic majorities you will probably see slightly more Pacifist and Radical friendly candidates elected but you're not going to get real radicals, if nothing else 1798 means most of those are in France or Australia.

 

[Vinization]

snip

Would an Addington ministry be noticeably different from the likes of Perceval and Liverpool? My guess is no, since he was a member of the latter's cabinet.

 

[Thoresby]

Would an Addington ministry be noticeably different from the likes of Perceval and Liverpool? My guess is no, since he was a member of the latter's cabinet.

They were all drawing from the same limited pool of ministers and the broad strokes of British policy would be consistent, the detail of course would be subject to growing changes as butterflies take effect but the basic themes and goals would be the same for any plausible successor to Pitt.

 

[Valentinian]

Could emancipation have happened if George III went mad for long enough for a regency and the Prince of Wales approve it?

 

[Vinization]

Could emancipation have happened if George III went mad for long enough for a regency and the Prince of Wales approve it?

That could be possible. AFAIK the Prince was personally against emancipation, supposedly weeping when he gave it his assent as king IOTL, but he didn't stop it.

To focus on Irish affairs specifically, how could the island's politics be affected by this WI? I assume the Protestant Ascendancy would decay earlier in the face of competition from Catholics, but what else could happen? Would guys like Daniel O'Connell and his Repeal Association still rise to prominence ITTL?

Lastly, since emancipation will be passed during a period of Tory dominance rather than when their grip on power was crumbling, could we see at least some Catholic MPs aligning with them instead of the Whigs, out of gratitude and patronage?

 

[Thoresby]

That could be possible. AFAIK the Prince was personally against emancipation, supposedly weeping when he gave it his assent as king IOTL, but he didn't stop it.

While he is just the Regent it's unlikely he'll pass Emancipation after his Father stated his opposition so clearly. Not least because what happens if his father gets better and finds out Emancipation has been passed? I think you either need an early start for George III or a very early Regency before his views on Emancipation become known.

To focus on Irish affairs specifically, how could the island's politics be affected by this WI? I assume the Protestant Ascendancy would decay earlier in the face of competition from Catholics, but what else could happen? Would guys like Daniel O'Connell and his Repeal Association still rise to prominence ITTL?

Repeal or some variant on it is always likely as Ireland will always be outweighed in a UK Parliament but the more functional and pleasant the Union is the weaker opposition to it will be.

Lastly, since emancipation will be passed during a period of Tory dominance rather than when their grip on power was crumbling, could we see at least some Catholic MPs aligning with them instead of the Whigs, out of gratitude and patronage?

During the early 18th century Catholics were overwhelmingly Tory, though things had changed over the intervening past century including the collapse of Jacobitism. To link it with another element you've brought up, the Corn Laws, they could be a good opportunity to get West of Ireland Catholic landowners and farmers into a Tory friendly frame is mind, or at least anti-Liberal.

 

[Vinization]

To link it with another element you've brought up, the Corn Laws, they could be a good opportunity to get West of Ireland Catholic landowners and farmers into a Tory friendly frame is mind, or at least anti-Liberal.

Now this could be very interesting indeed, since from what I know the west was the poorest region of Ireland. Could this potential friendliness towards the Tories translate into some economic development there whenever they're in power? It'd be funny if, say, Robert "Orange" Peel became known as "Green" instead ITTL. Sure, he eventually supported emancipation IOTL, but he had that nickname for a reason.

 

[Thoresby]

Now this could be very interesting indeed, since from what I know the west was the poorest region of Ireland. Could this potential friendliness towards the Tories translate into some economic development there whenever they're in power? It'd be funny if, say, Robert "Orange" Peel became known as "Green" instead ITTL. Sure, he eventually supported emancipation IOTL, but he had that nickname for a reason.

The West was comfortably the poorest region of Ireland and most importantly the most Catholic both in terms of overall population and in terms of landownership, it was also the region that, post-Emancipation, had the most Catholic electorate. Remember the 26 counties had a substantial Protestant population at this time and they were a lot more than a handful of Ascendancy landowners

A large chunk of the professional classes, doctors, lawyers, merchants etc. were Protestant as well and on the pre 1832 franchise Catholics would have been a majority of the electorate in a minority of Irish seats. Now in those seats you are going to get proto-Repealers elected and while they might agree with the Tories on some issues (Corn Laws) they aren't going to be Tories, but you could get them to adopt a more "centrist" position and try and work with both major parties which will create all sorts of butterflies. With regards to development the problems of the West of Ireland are numerous and the ability/interest of the British state in state action to foster development is limited but it's hard to see how it could hurt and it can't be worse than OTL!