The Hispano-American War of 1870: CSA vs. Spain

[Condottiero]

We have seen several TLs in which the Confederate States manage to survive to American Civl War and by 1870-1880 they annex easily Cuba and Puerto Rico. I was wondering what was the relative forces of both navies and I have found this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_Confederate_States_Navy

http://www.revistanaval.com/armada/buques_marinablindada/index.htm


The Confederates would have more ships but they would be far from a match to the Spanish navy (the Numancia, considered the most powerful ship when built, with 34 200mm guns; the Victoria, with 30 200mm guns; the Tetuan with 40 68pdr guns; the Sagunto with 10 220mm and 3 180mm guns... had no eq).

Let's assume the CSA manage to survive the ACW, that they keep the size of their navy and purchase the Danmark (12 60-pounder guns, 10 24-pounder guns and two more 24-pounder guns), the Wivern and the Scorpion. Let's assume that they feel that they could take Cuba...

Would the CSA rulers be so crazy as to go to a war with Spain?
Would the foreign threat remove the political unrest in Spain?
In case of war who would side with the CSA and who with Spain? Would the USA resent the CSA and see the oportunity of revenge? Would Mexico side with Spain or with the CSA? What about Grat Britain, France and Germany?

 

[Tocomocho]

I'm pretty sure that some of the main reasons why the USA didn't intervene in the Ten Years' War were the fact they were still recovering from the destruction left by the civil war and some amount of political unstability reflected in the assassinations of Lincoln and Garfield. The CSA would be facing even harder economic problems and probably having a more unstable government - Her constitution was made to favour a weak central government, after all!

On the other side, you have Spain firmly united under Prim's leadership and a minor rebellion in Cuba that wouldn't provide any help to the CSA. The wealthy slaveholders were clearly loyal to Spain, and the rest of the population had nothing to share with the CSA at all.

The CSA could have a more interesting picture in 1874, however, with Spain fighting a three way civil war in the Peninsula and right after the navy was scrapped due to the Cartagena Uprising. But even in this situation, the CSA should have achieved internal cohesion, economic stability, a decent navy and the guarantee that the USA and Britain will not discuss such a big movement. But even in 1874, Cuba would be a tough nut to crack for the CSA: Maybe not because Spain, but because the Cubans... that bloody kind of guerrilla warfare in the jungle that Céspedes and Gómez had developed by then and that the CSA had not experience fin dealing with. The occupation would be a continuous bleeding of men and money for a country that had not recovered yet from the civil war and could be facing additional problems derived from the cash crisis of 1873. It would be interesting if a long lasting campaign in Cuba damages enough the economic situation of the CSA to force a coup d'etat in Richmond or even a new civil war… this time only in the south.

 

[Thande]

It is interesting to see just how implausible it is when you lay down the numbers like that...

Most American writers seem to forget that Spain in the 1870s is not the same as Spain in the 1890s.

 

[Chris S]

Tocomocho, the CS constitution was actually not made to favour a weak central government, unless you consider the US federal goverment weak as well. The CS constitution was an almost exact replica of the US constitution with changes that made slavery more blantant (no mention of "3/5ths for all other persons" and so forth, just mention of slaves outright) and small changes that gave the states powers to regulate shared waterways, tax foreign and domestic ships using those waterways and to impeach federally-appointed state officials. It is true that CS states had more prominence back then, but so did US states at the time. The only way in which the CS government was weaker was in the lack of a CS Supreme Court during the ACW (and even then the CS Supreme Court was explicitly outlined in the CS Constitution along the lines of the US Supreme Court and it might have been established sooner or later). Check out this site which has an article-by-article (side-by-side) comparison of both constitutions: http://www.filibustercartoons.com/CSA.htm

As you pointed out, the CSA would definitely have a very hard time in 1870 if it went to war with Spain over Cuba, but 1874 would have been a minor window (in terms of the civil war in Spain and scrapping of the Spanish Navy - other than that the other obstacles of US and British opposition would remain). 1874 might actually be their best chance if they bother, since in OTL slavery was ended in Cuba in late 1886 and once it had ended, the CSA would have double the work if it wanted Cuba: first actually taking Cuba and putting down any resulting rebellion and then, secondly, reintroducing slavery (never easy as France found in St. Dominique/Haiti) and putting down any rebellions resulting from that.

When you look at the ship numbers though it does seem somewhat implausible as Thande said, although one of the CS ships caught my eye: a frigate by the name of CSS United States (sometimes called CSS Confederate States but never officially renamed). That would be something, if some (implausible) 1874 Spanish-Confederate War had the CSS United States taking part in the action around Cuba or the rest of the Caribbean or Atlantic.

 

[67th Tigers]

It is interesting to see just how implausible it is when you lay down the numbers like that...

Most American writers seem to forget that Spain in the 1870s is not the same as Spain in the 1890s.

Indeed, it was reckoned 2 ironclad broadside frigates would have sunk the entire US Atlantic Fleet in 15 mins by USN offrs present....

 

[snerfuplz]

Tocomocho, the CS constitution was actually not made to favour a weak central government, unless you consider the US federal goverment weak as well. The CS constitution was an almost exact replica of the US constitution with changes that made slavery more blantant (no mention of "3/5ths for all other persons" and so forth, just mention of slaves outright) and small changes that gave the states powers to regulate shared waterways, tax foreign and domestic ships using those waterways and to impeach federally-appointed state officials. It is true that CS states had more prominence back then, but so did US states at the time. The only way in which the CS government was weaker was in the lack of a CS Supreme Court during the ACW (and even then the CS Supreme Court was explicitly outlined in the CS Constitution along the lines of the US Supreme Court and it might have been established sooner or later). Check out this site which has an article-by-article (side-by-side) comparison of both constitutions: http://www.filibustercartoons.com/CSA.htm

As you pointed out, the CSA would definitely have a very hard time in 1870 if it went to war with Spain over Cuba, but 1874 would have been a minor window (in terms of the civil war in Spain and scrapping of the Spanish Navy - other than that the other obstacles of US and British opposition would remain). 1874 might actually be their best chance if they bother, since in OTL slavery was ended in Cuba in late 1886 and once it had ended, the CSA would have double the work if it wanted Cuba: first actually taking Cuba and putting down any resulting rebellion and then, secondly, reintroducing slavery (never easy as France found in St. Dominique/Haiti) and putting down any rebellions resulting from that.

When you look at the ship numbers though it does seem somewhat implausible as Thande said, although one of the CS ships caught my eye: a frigate by the name of CSS United States (sometimes called CSS Confederate States but never officially renamed). That would be something, if some (implausible) 1874 Spanish-Confederate War had the CSS United States taking part in the action around Cuba or the rest of the Caribbean or Atlantic.

There are already problems with the CSA constitution. If the CSA consitiution is too similar to the USA one than there would most probally revolt. Remember states revolted because they wanted more state power and less Federal power. Even though Jefferson Davis wanted it the other way around. Even during ACW Georgia considered seeceeding from the CSA because it felt the Federal goverment had too much control. It is wrong to compare the CSA to the USA in the beggining stages of both countries. The USA fought a war for independence from Britain not for state rights.

 

[David S Poepoe]

There are already problems with the CSA constitution. If the CSA consitiution is too similar to the USA one than there would most probally revolt. Remember states revolted because they wanted more state power and less Federal power. Even though Jefferson Davis wanted it the other way around. Even during ACW Georgia considered seeceeding from the CSA because it felt the Federal goverment had too much control. It is wrong to compare the CSA to the USA in the beggining stages of both countries. The USA fought a war for independence from Britain not for state rights.

First off, the comparison between the American War of Independene and the War of Southern Secession is good. The colonies did fight a war for states rights, they were fighting for their right to control taxation and governance.

Both Lincoln and Davis attempted centralization, its just that Lincoln was able to accomplish it and, as opposed to Davis, he was successful since he suspended the Constitution - which the President doesn't have the power to do so. Davis worked within the confines of the CS Constitution, but I also think he was greatly hampered by various political enemies he had a great talent for making.

 

[snerfuplz]

First off, the comparison between the American War of Independene and the War of Southern Secession is good. The colonies did fight a war for states rights, they were fighting for their right to control taxation and governance.

Both Lincoln and Davis attempted centralization, its just that Lincoln was able to accomplish it and, as opposed to Davis, he was successful since he suspended the Constitution - which the President doesn't have the power to do so. Davis worked within the confines of the CS Constitution, but I also think he was greatly hampered by various political enemies he had a great talent for making.

True. From what I have read Jefferson Davis was not as graceful as Lincoln when it came to dealing with political drawbacks.

 

[Thande]

Let's not argue about the nature of the ACW again. That's not particularly relevant to this discussion.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

I See LOTS of Talk About The Caribbean, But Very Little Talk About Other Spanish Holdings ...

What if During The War Between The CSA and Spain, Either Germany or Japan, Or to Be Especially Ironic The Union, Takes Advantage of The Situation and Conquers The Philippines ...

What Now?

 

[Paul Spring]

What if the CSA went to war against Spain later, when Spain had become weaker, say around the same time the USA did in OTL?

 

[snerfuplz]

What if the CSA went to war against Spain later, when Spain had become weaker, say around the same time the USA did in OTL?

But wouldn't the longer the CSA wait the stronger the USA will get. If the CSA invades I think the USA would take advantage and attack the CSA.

 

[Condottiero]

I See LOTS of Talk About The Caribbean, But Very Little Talk About Other Spanish Holdings ...

What if During The War Between The CSA and Spain, Either Germany or Japan, Or to Be Especially Ironic The Union, Takes Advantage of The Situation and Conquers The Philippines ...

What Now?

This is really interesting. But I think the real problem for Spain would be Japan, would Germany dare to attack Spain pushing her into the British side?

 

[Jason]

This is really interesting. But I think the real problem for Spain would be Japan, would Germany dare to attack Spain pushing her into the British side?

Also, if we're talking the 1870s then surely Germany is a no-no anyway, no real navy, Bismarck still in power and he wasn't exactly in favour of colonies.

What about China? is there any possibility of them having a go?