(Big Ben Chimes)
CONSERVATIVES WIN
FORECAST CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 271 SEATS.
Huw Edwards - Our exit poll is suggesting the Conservatives will be the largest party after all the votes are counted. The Conservatives on 271 seats, up 22. Labour way down on 171, down 67, the worst result for the party since 1935, almost a hundred years ago. Liberal Democrats on 67, up 4. The Greens on 46, up 21, the Brexit Alliance on 31, up 31. The SNP also on 31, up 10. Finally UKIP on 5 seats, down 25. All other parties making up 28 seats. It is an exit poll we will see how accurate it is when results come in. It is a dramatic poll, but it seems fairly likely Labour will be vacating Downing Street in the next few days. Laura Kuenssberg, your reaction?
LK - We have all lived through some of the most turbulent times in our nation and our politics. If this exit poll is correct, Rishi Sunak, who was a backbencher until three short years ago, may have just redrawn the political map. With these figures, he would have clear backing on the green benches to gain his choice of coalition partner, combat the coronavirus, and bring his promised referendum on the EU.
HE - Bad news for Labour as well, Labour has been in power for nearly a decade, they have run our Commonwealth for seventeen of its twenty years, some might say they are the natural party of Government, if these numbers are even remotely correct it is a serious and historic loss for the party. A disappointing night for the Brexit Alliance as well, only 30 seats, many in the party had hoped for 50 or 60 seats to guarantee Anne Widdecombe and Nigel Farage places in the Cabinet, but it looks unlikely Nigel Farage will be receiving the keys to a ministerial car.
LK - That's right Huw, and whilst Mr Sunak is likely to become Prime Minister if these figures are correct, his prefered coalition partners, the Brexit Alliance, do not get him over the edge. He needs another sixty seats for a Parliamentary majority, and even with the help of UKIP and the Northern Irish Unionists, he is unlikely to get there arm in arm with Nigel Farage, it looks like his most likely option is a deal with the Liberal Democrats
HE - What about a quote-on-quote "covid coalition" touted by senior Tories like Senator George Freeman, a grand coalition of both parties to ensure stability throughout the pandemic. Such an alliance would have a formidable Parliamentary majority but is likely to anger backbench Labour and Conservative MPs. Tory MPs have finally got Labour out of Downing Street, will they invite them back in?
LK - Well Ed Miliband is still President, at least for the next four years, so if these numbers are correct it looks like we're heading into a period of cohabitation, where the President and Prime Minister are from different parties, and Diane Abbott still runs the Senate, so Labour will have at least some seats in the Cabinet, but I doubt Mr Sunak will be inviting Labour people into the Cabinet as Ministers, he ran as a clean break from the centrism of the Osborne/Rudd era, and as a committed Eurosceptic he won't want anything getting in the way of his promised referendum.
HE - Yes but it looks like Sunak has had a good night, but he has slim pickings in terms of coalition partners, UKIP's collapsed to just a handful of seats, it looks like they only crossed that 4% threshold in one or two regions. This is crucial because if they perform a bit better than our exit poll they could double their MPs just by breaking the threshold in a few more regions if they perform a bit worse they could be wiped out of Parliament.
LK - Absolutely, the Conservatives have consolidated that right-wing, eurosceptic vote behind them, meanwhile for Labour their support has fragmented to all sorts of different parties, the Greens have done well, especially in Labour citadels like Bristol and London, the SNP too seem to be surging North of the Border, Labour has been hit from all angles. Of course, we should remember this election has been conducted entirely using postal ballots, so our exit poll has a greater margin of error than usual.
HE - If this exit poll is anywhere near true it is hard to emphasise how bad this result is for Labour, and I'm sure in Southside the blame game is beginning, was their response to COVID not up to scratch? Had they lost trust on the economy by overspending? Is the public fed up by ten years of Labour rule and wanted to give the party a kicking? Or was their Lead Candidate Annelisse Dodds simply not good enough?
LK - Certainly lots of questions to answer at Labour's campaign HQ in Oxford. With us now we have Senator Kwasi Kwarteng for South East England, Senator Kwarteng what's your initial reaction to our exit poll?