Tango para Dos: A South American TL

[ANZAC]

This account may be new, but I have been reading all sorts of different alternate-history fictions posted here for a long time, at long last, it is my time now to entertain others with a new timeline. I have noticed (or at least not seen) no one attempting to create a timeline with a similar idea to that of mine, which has prompted me to create Tango para Dos. Whilst the important PODs rest in the end of the 19th century, most events will occur in the 20th century, therefore if I need to move this to before 1900 I will do so. I must stress that this is my first timeline, so I would like to ask anyone reading it or following it to give me tips on things I could improve on, and guide me on how should I develop events next (though I have a basic framework already set up), any help is welcome.

I wish you, the reader of this very timeline, a wonderful Christmas, and a joyous time reading this tale of two brothers who cannot get their relation straight.

 

[ANZAC]

TANGO PARA DOS:

A South American Timeline from the Late 19th Century to the 20th Century

“America is ungovernable… he who serves a revolution will plough the sea.”
~ Simón Bolivar
​

Preface:​

To say that Brazil and Argentina have a historic rivalry is an understatement. From their independence onto our contemporary age the rivalry that has stood between the two South American titans has always been mixed, from tearing each other off in the Platine War, to supporting one another in the Paraguay War, the relations of these two nations have always been rocky. In our timeline, neither country actually got a chance to be successfully named ‘the hegemon of South America’, as this title was usurped by the Americans when they decided to transform the Americas into their backyard. This was mainly due to the decline of the international influence exerted by Argentina and Brazil, who had their hegemonic ambitions cut short by strings of crises that resulted in domestic matters becoming far too pressing, and their influence eroding to the point that the Americans could replace them. However, in Tango para Dos, I aim to develop a timeline where not only these two South American countries are able to preserve their prestige and international influence, but also build up towards an epic final conflict which will encompass the entirety of the continent and decide who is the South American hegemon.

This timeline will be developed in a dual and chronological narrative: One will be focusing on the exploits of Brazil and how it narrowly avoids the Republican coup, preventing the country falling into the clutches of the coffee oligarchs and the República Velha, as the country embarks into a new era of modernization and renovation, with the malaise of the late Empire being swept to make way for a continuation of a stronger empire. The other narrative will cover the tale of how the Argentine nation was able to turn around the uncertainty brought by the turn of the century and create a truly free country that is able to, in many aspects, dispute with the Americans.

Prologue:​

The situation of Brazil by 1889 was bleak. The ailing health of Emperor Dom Pedro II was the chance that the Republican organisations in Brazil were hoping to find in order to execute their ultimate exploit, the declaration of a Brazilian republic. It was the greatest crossroad of Brazilian history, never before had an issue become as important for shaping the national identity as the dissonant choice between monarchism and republicanism, to which the former was steadily losing. However, the monarchists had one final trick up their sleeve, their final hope: Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, the Viscount of Ouro Preto.

"Ouro Preto, [...] along with other contemporaries, stood out exactly for traits opposed to flexibility and adaptability. [...] Another point in which he distinguished himself [...] was in his strong monarchism. He acknowledged the danger represented by republican tendencies, greatly increased after the abolition of slavery. But, for him, the answer was not to prepare for the republic, but to empty the republic, to show that the monarchy could carry out, and better, the so-called democratic reforms."

~ José Murilo de Carvalho, Brazilian historian (2007)

Much like our timeline, Ouro Preto was appointed as part of the final imperial agenda, reforming the empire in order to contest the republican reformist ideals. Ouro Preto reasoned that if the empire could make the necessary reforms and become a modern state, the republican cause would slowly erode until they are reduced to a small collective of infighting organisations. Beginning his government, Ouro Preto decides to appoint the Viscount of Pelotas as the new President of Rio Grande do Sul [1]. This move is approved by the celebrated Marshall Deodoro da Fonseca, who in turn decides to endorse the government, and sees the conspiratorial accusations made by the republican elements in the army that Ouro Preto planned to liquidate the army as a farce.

Marching forward to November of that same year a conspiracy was brewing. Headed by Marshall Floriano Peixoto and Col. Benjamin Constant, this conspiracy aim

ed to overthrow the monarchy by storming parliament and the ministries, effectively proclaiming the republic with a coerced vote. However, as the day of the coup neared, Constant caught wind of something which greatly upset him, a great ball in the Ilha Fiscal was going to be hosted in the 9th of September with the officers of the Chilean dreadnought "Almirante Cochrane", and Constant was not invited. So, Constant, as a great stuntman, decided to secretly enter the party by boarding a canoe and sailing it up to the mansion it was being hosted. During this process, Constant’s canoe would flip, and the celebrated colonel would drown in the sea, with his body being found in the banks of the Cais do Mercado the very next day [2]. Constant’s death put the republican conspiracy in jeopardy, as they would find that Floriano Peixoto was far from being the charismatic and popular man to lead the coup that Constant was. Nevertheless the conspiracy would push on, as the conspirators hoped that Peixoto would not destroy their chances of seizing power.

Then it came, the 9th of December, a delayed date, as Floriano had made changes to accord the new reality without Constant. Pedro II was in Europe seeking treatment again [3], Ouro Preto was in São Paulo trying to convince the Paulista elites to support his reforms, and the city was left for the no longer sick Viscount of Maracaju to administer the capital with the princess Isabel. Then it began, at ten in the morning Peixoto went around his barracks displaying a false telegram fabricated by him which contained an order by the prime minister signed by Isabel to arrest him, which he paraded at in his camp, and used as a justification to march with his soldiers onto the ministry of war, where Maracaju and the Baron of Ladário were discussing the armed forces reform that was going to be introduced by Ouro Preto, with the ambition of seizing all government facilities to declare the republic. The coup was in full swing as Peixoto’s men were marching out of their camp, and that is when Deodoro da Fonseca was informed of what was happening; pondering for a moment, Deodoro was faced with a tough choice, join the insurrection and prevent the reform of the armed forces which he did not agree with, or he could warn the ministry of war of what was happening, and mobilise his regiment in order to defend the government buildings. Ultimately, his friendship and respect for Pedro II won over his pride, as he decided to dispatch a messenger to warn Maracaju that Peixoto was going to be arriving at any second, and mobilised his regiment to march to the Casa de Câmara and the Count of Arcos’ palace in order to protect the parliament.

Meanwhile, Peixoto was able to gather some popular attention by marching down the street waving the Republican flag and proclaiming that the monarchy was going to end, being met with both stern looks and supporters, he was nearing the ministry of war. That is when the messenger arrived to alert Maracaju of what was unfolding, as he took to telegraphing the national guard garrison of the Município Neutro and the president of the Rio de Janeiro province, Carlos Afonso de Assis Figueiredo, to be prepared to send the regimental and national guard garrisons of Rio if the situation escalated, as Maracaju would prepare for a siege of his ministry.

Peixoto finally arrived in the ministry of war, thinking he was going to surprise Maracaju who, surrounded, would be forced to surrender and agree to be jailed. However, as he approached the facility, he heard the very Maracaju from the parapet yelling at Peixoto telling him his attempt was frustrated from the start, as national guard and army troops poured down from the doors of the building. Peixoto was astonished, he thought he could get Maracaju by surprise, but the very opposite happened. Then, Maracaju informed Peixoto of Deodoro’s messenger, and that he was approaching the ministry with his regiment at any moment. Peixoto had dispatched a force of his regiment with the civil politicians of the republican cause in order to secure the chamber of deputies and the senate, but as they were approaching, they were met by national guard troops, who blocked their path and prevented them from continuing. These forces were in a standoff and nobody seemed willing to spill blood over this issue. Then the standoff was called off as Deodoro and his regiment approached the area, hearing of the attempt to seize those buildings, he went personally there in order to pacify the insurrectionists. Eventually, Deodoro was successful, and the insurrectionists surrendered, which resulted in the imprisonment of the civil leadership of the republican movement, with invaluable intellectuals like Ruy Barbosa and Quintino Bocaiuva being put under arrest.

By this point the entire coup attempt was falling apart, the navy officers that were supposed to threaten the capital with a bombardment if the government did not surrender were instead met with a mutiny from loyalist sailors who quickly forced their officers to call back the bluff. Peixoto, in his stand off with Maracaju, decides to leave the scene, as hears from some civilians that Deodoro was approaching, resulting in him hopping onto a republican ship and fleeing the country for Argentina, which, for the detriment of Brazilian-Argentine relations, was a focus of much tension.

At last the so-called coup of 9th of December was over, the monarchy survived the republican insurrection, and

had consolidated its position, going from certain doom to stabilisation. Later in that day Ouro Preto received a telegram, and was alleviated that the attempt was put down, as, after receiving confirmation of support from the Paulista elites to support his decentralisation reform, he would hop on the first train to Rio de Janeiro to continue his reform agenda, knowing that now his position was secure. Later in that week, Pedro II also got news from what happened in the capital, and, tired as he was, he did not express joy or happiness from seeing that his throne was maintained, but he would write a letter endorsing Isabel to hand Deodoro the honorific title of Baron of Santamaria and the order of the rose for his service to the Emperor.

The monarchy would live for another day, but this coup sowed the seeds of discontent that would erupt in something much larger coming from the hermano in the south…

[1] Brazilian point of divergence. The appointment of Gaspar da Silveira Martins in our timeline caused Deodoro da Fonseca to turn against the Ouro Preto government and convinced him to join the republican group that orchestrated the coup.
[2] Col. Constant was an instrumental piece of the republican movement, his death would cause a complete derailing of republican organization which would ultimately result in Peixoto's rash and uncalculated decisions to doom the future coup.
[3] This is important because Pedro II was a tired man by the end of his life. In our timeline he allowed for the republican coup to happen as a result of how tired he was and how he did not wish for blood to be spat. Without his presence, the coup can actually be stopped with the use of military force.

 

[davvasconcelos]

It's great to see a Timeline about Latin America.
I was intrigued about choosing 1889 as a starting point, we usually see stories that start before that.
Another thing that makes me curious is the fact that you use both nations in parallel.
I want to see how the relationship between the surviving Brazilian Empire and the Argentine Republic will develop.

 

[ANZAC]

THE TRAIL TO REFORM:

“The Brazilian will be the New Athenian if he does not fall victim to the tyranny of state”
~José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva​

On the day following the coup attempt, Ouro Preto arrived in the capital, getting there before any other extraordinary event could happen, and before his political enemies could exploit his absence. Ouro Preto would quickly prepare the trials for the leaders of the republican movement, the fates of their subalterns, and the future of the Republican Party and the republican organisations that had been operating legally up to this point.

All of those who actively participated in the realisation of this coup attempt were sentenced to treason, which was punishable with death. However, in the most prestigious and galant presentation of her character, Princess Isabel would concede the imperial grace on behalf of the emperor to all involved, which prevented anyone from being sentenced to death, making her a national sensation and earning her the title “The Redeemer”. The civilian politicians involved – Ruy Barbosa, Quintino Bocaiuva, etc. – were sentenced to imprisonment for the next few years [1]; most officers that took part in the coup had their ranks stripped and were sentenced to imprisonment for sentences that could last up to 10 years depending on their rank; the soldiers themselves had the most mixed trials, as some had been sentenced to imprisonment for their acts, more than half would be forced to retire from the army and take up a civilian career, and less than half being able to return to their posts. This complete dismemberment of the army, orchestrated by Ouro Preto and Maracaju, had the intended effect of weakening the influence of the army to the point they could completely overhaul its structure. Lastly, the government would also implement measures to crack down on radical republican activities, which divided the republicans between those who were complacent with the imperial persecution – dubbed “canarinhos” for their harmlessness – and those who would operate clandestinely with the intent of bringing down the entire imperial structure.

In the ensuing weeks after the trials, Ouro Preto would begin what he would be most remembered for, his democratic reforms, intended to modernise the empire and outdo the results of a potential republic. For this, Ouro Preto had three reforms which were crucial for the long-term survival of the empire.

Ouro Preto had envisioned the creation of a private central bank inspired by the European model, which would be tasked with the regulation of the market through performing the functions of lender of last resort, treasury agent, and liquidity regulator. His big push for this would come at the 20th of December of that same year, where he would present a bill by his party to the chamber of deputies; called Decreto nº 10.428, the bill would pass smoothly in the liberal dominated chamber, then handed onto the senate, who would also rectify it, leading to Dom Pedro II (who regressed from Europe once more) approving the new bill. Born from the Decreto nº 10.428 would be the Banco Imperial do Brazil (BIB), Ouro Preto’s magnum opus, the Brazilian central bank. With the BIB in place, measures were taken to regulate speculation and control the emission of currency, which were introduced in order to prevent a possible buble created by high speculation. Historians agree that had the government stood idle, or taken a different set of policies, this bubble could have eventually led to an economic crisis.

The Viscount then embarked on his second set of major reforms, those being the electoral and parliamentary reforms, which would liberalise the empire and break a classist barrier between the aristocracy and the people. This would be no walk in the park, Ouro Preto knew he was stretching the overton window of the aristocrats by making this push, but he was supported by a parliamentary majority, and the endorsement of the emperor and his regent. Beginning with the electoral reform, Ouro Preto would introduce the Decreto nº 10.431 and Decreto nº 10.432. The former was aimed at reducing voter fraud, as further protections were placed on voters in order to reinforce their rights, and prevent elites from exploiting voters to their benefit. The latter had the ambitious task of protecting the newfound bloc of ex-slave voters from discrimination or coerce in the voting process, which earned Ouro Preto a letter from Dom Pedro II personally thanking for the introduction of this decree. After much debate and dealing with the conservatives, Ouro Preto was finally able to pass these amendments of the constitution, which earned him the love of the streets of Rio, who cheered him on as he proceeded to continue with journey. This, however, had the unintended effect of exhausting Ouro Preto’s favours with the opposition, which meant he now had to appease the conservatives before proceeding with his structural reforms.

For this, the Viscount looked into the war and naval ministries, and the renovation of the Brazilian army and armada. The Baron of Ladário was already planning to introduce an extreme reform of the armada, aimed at putting it in a contestable level with the British royal navy. With the acquisition of conservative endorsement, Ouro Preto would pour money into the empire’s jewel, and bring it to a whole new level. In the upcoming years, Ladário would oversee the refitting of many outdated vessels, the requisition of yet more European dreadnoughts – such as the new Ipiranga and the Dom Pedro I – and the native production of many more war vessels. By the end of 1895, these reforms would be finished, and the Brazilian armada would shine so much as to strike fear into the Royal Navy, who saw it as an untamable beast [2]. Many historians would argue that by that point, the Brazilian armada was the undisputed hegemon of the South Atlantic, and that it outmatched all the other navies in the world, only coming second to the Royal Navy.

Ouro Preto would also, unlike his predecessors, finally reign in the army, and bring to it meaningful discipline [3]. Starting with the introduction of a restriction in the number of officers in the army, which decreased the ways to which corruption could flow in the army, and only allowed for those genuinely skilled to hold onto their posts. The viscount would then propose a new controversial bill to parliament: the introduction of a mandatory retirement age for all military officers at 67. This was intended to reduce the size of the old guard in the Brazilian general staff, who in their majority would neglect to properly drill Brazilian soldiers, and were way behind other nations in doctrine and technology because of their refusal to adapt. The bill was eventually passed, but it greatly angered many officers, who would resent Ouro Preto’s government. Ouro Preto would then command the Viscount of Maracaju to reorganise the structure of the army, to which he would begin to tackle the greatest issues found in the Brazilian army at the end of the century. Maracaju would promote meritocracy in the army, and break the old nepotistic circles found in it, however simultaneously promoting monarchist officers in order to curb republican influence in the institution. He would then proceed to import foreign advisors and weapons from Europe, in order to catch Brazil up in both doctrinal and technological terms. Maracaju would also attempt to curb out the positivist presence in the army by overriding a generation of positivist influence that reeked from republican proponents in it, such as Floriano Peixoto or Benjamin Constant, instrumental in its spread, instead replacing it with a new generation of monarchist teachers and curriculum aimed at reverting the positivist brain drain. Lastly, Maracaju and Ouro Preto would solve the chronic shortage of soldiers in the army by increasing the soldier’s wage, attracting more people to enlist. Maracaju would also integrate José do Patrocínio’s Guarda Negra as an army regiment, creating an enlistment drive of ex-slaves to serve the monarchy as a new army contingent. The reforms had the intended effect, as in the start of 1890 the army would have no more than 11,000 active soldiers, in a complete decadent state, to having up to 58,000 men by the end of the century, as the army would be transformed into a loyal government institution that was not only modern, but also technologically and doctrinally recovering from its decadent era.

Outside of Ouro Preto’s reforms, many events had shook up the entirety of Brazil. Most importantly, was the death of Dom Pedro II. The Emperor was very sick and frail by the late empire, with his condition only worsening every year. On the 5th of January of 1892 the Emperor would travel to Petrópolis in order to pass his time in the imperial palace, however, during his stay, the emperor would stay up late analysing the palace’s garden, resulting in him developing a very bad cough on the 7th of January. By Sunday – that is the 10th of January – the emperor would be interned in Rio as he would develop pneumonia. After another week under constant watch, the emperor gave signs of improvement, and was allowed to return to the imperial palace. However, his condition would worsen by the start of the next week, and on the 21st of January, at 05:21, the emperor would pass away in his sleep, a painless death. On the very next day, the preparations were made for his funeral, which happened on the 24th of January, as his death became international news. Hundreds of thousands would follow the funerary procession of their beloved emperor, and would find comfort in a speech made by his daughter, the Princess Isabel, who was to become the new empress by the 16th of February during her coronation procession, becoming Empress Dona Isabel I “The Redeemer” of Brazil.

Isabel’s reign would be remembered by many things, but predominantly, from the start, it would be marked by the beginning of the construction of the “Christo Redemptor” on top of the Corcovado, where she would build a statue of Christ in honour of both her father, and her idol, the redeemer of all, Jesus Christ.



As all these events unfolded domestically, something much greater was brewing internationally in Argentina...






[1] Not relevant enough to be mentioned, but in the following years Bocaiuva would go back to leading the Republican party, but piping down his radicalism to not be persecuted, and Barbosa goes to the US in order to study more about the American system.
[2] The Brazilian Armada by the standards of its time was considered to be one of the best and most advanced in all fields, to the point that it was feared Brazil could contest British naval dominance.
[3] In contrast to the grand and prestigious armada, the Brazilian army of the late empire was a rump and decadent institution. Soldiers barely qualified to be so, they were undisciplined, and they were outgunned and outmanned by most of other country's armies. It was so bad that of the 15,000 soldiers in 1884, around 7,400 would be arrested for lack of conduct and discipline.

 

[ANZAC]

It's great to see a Timeline about Latin America.
I was intrigued about choosing 1889 as a starting point, we usually see stories that start before that.
Another thing that makes me curious is the fact that you use both nations in parallel.
I want to see how the relationship between the surviving Brazilian Empire and the Argentine Republic will develop.

One could certainly argue that the Republican cause was nowhere near from being organized enough in order to stage a coup like that of the 15th of November. I figured out that if I was to only move a few pieces around the coup could certainly go downhill and fail just because of how much it relied on pure luck.

I also found it more interesting to explore this scenario in a wider scope, as I figured that most scenarios would focus on just the development of how one country shifts the nature of its surroundings.

In any case I am happy to know you are enjoying to read this!

 

[Godot]

Interesting, watched!

Isabel’s reign would be remembered by many things, but predominantly, from the start, it would be marked by the beginning of the construction of the “Christo Redemptor” on top of the Corcovado, where she would build a statue of Christ in honour of both her father, and her idol, the redeemer of all, Jesus Christ.

Really interesting to see Isabel on the throne properly. Is she still married to Gaston of Eu as she was iotl? If so, the throne of Brazil would end up held by members of the House of Orleans, which is really funny to me.

Like, usually the title of Emperor is associated with the Bonapartes, not the Orleanists. Plus, the most prominent pretender to the French throne would be Orleanist while the only member of the House with a crown on their head would be in Brazil, of all places.

 

[ANZAC]

Interesting, watched!




Really interesting to see Isabel on the throne properly. Is she still married to Gaston of Eu as she was iotl? If so, the throne of Brazil would end up held by members of the House of Orleans, which is really funny to me.

Like, usually the title of Emperor is associated with the Bonapartes, not the Orleanists. Plus, the most prominent pretender to the French throne would be Orleanist while the only member of the House with a crown on their head would be in Brazil, of all places.

Isabel is indeed married to Conde d'Eu. He will play his part as a deeply unpopular monarch as the couple attempts to regain public sympathy for her husband. Even worse will be the future Edward-esque crisis that will ensue from their first son wanting to marry a lesser noble, so Isabel will be packed with dynastical drama for her time as empress.

 

[davvasconcelos]

Modernizing the army and navy will not be cheap. Dreadnoughts are extremely expensive and Brazil will need many if it wants to become a maritime power.
I think the Dreadnought Crisis could be a hotter conflict in this TL.
Argentina will certainly not stand by and watch its northern rival become a naval power.

 

[lukedalton]

Getting in so few years a navy that second in the world only to the Royal Navy...well it's extremely costly (and i'm very optimistic), in both monetary terms directly tied to the ships acquisition but also in the creation of the proper infrastructure and the training of the personell.
Honestly it's very difficult to see any nation doing while while at the same time going through a period of massive change and reform, not including the reform and modernization of the army.

 

[ANZAC]

Modernizing the army and navy will not be cheap. Dreadnoughts are extremely expensive and Brazil will need many if it wants to become a maritime power.
I think the Dreadnought Crisis could be a hotter conflict in this TL.
Argentina will certainly not stand by and watch its northern rival become a naval power.

Definitely. But thanks to Ouro Preto's BIB, he can actually borrow domestically instead of internationally, which does leave the empire with a large outstanding debt, but that is domestic debt and easier to repay.

Argentina definitely will not stand by Brazil jumping this far forward, they will attempt to catch up, specially because Ouro Preto's foreign policy is... suffice to say, very hostile to Argentina after they welcome Peixoto as an exile, which will be explored in the next chapter, focusing on the Argentine side of the story.

 

[ANZAC]

Getting in so few years a navy that second in the world only to the Royal Navy...well it's extremely costly (and i'm very optimistic), in both monetary terms directly tied to the ships acquisition but also in the creation of the proper infrastructure and the training of the personell.
Honestly it's very difficult to see any nation doing while while at the same time going through a period of massive change and reform, not including the reform and modernization of the army.

It is not like they made it out of thin air, don't worry. By the 1880s Brazil's navy was already considered in our timeline one of the greatest in the world, if not the second best. Ladário's reforms were very much on their way in our timeline, and had the monarchy not fallen they would have carried on. As for the army, the reforms were actually small in comparison to what Ouro Preto had planned (he wanted to dissolve the army and rewrite the whole structure from the top down), and were kept in a realistic framework set by the Duke of Caxias.


This is why Ouro Preto was the last hope of the monarchists, he was the sort of man that could be in all places at the same time. And he still fails to do many of his reforms during his premiership, like federalizing the empire, placing term limits in the Senate, limiting the powers of the advisory council to just administrative rolls, and land reform. The conservative opposition could only get him so far, and something they were very keen on was reforming the armada and army, which Ouro Preto decides to do in order to gather their favour to push for more reforms.