Starting Again:The Aftermath of the Downing Street Mortar Attack

Well, here it is finally. Hope you enjoy my first (and no doubt lacking) attempt at an actual timeline:

Starting Again: The Aftermath of the Downing Street Mortar Attack

By Alberto Knox


Part 1: Setting it off with a...


The attack was originally planned with the purpose of assassinating then Prime Minister Thatcher (an obvious figure of hate within the IRA) but her unanticipated departure from office after the Conservative leadership election in November 1990 made the implementers uncertain whether to proceed. They knew where Thatcher had stood vis-à-vis Ireland but her successor, John Major, was an unknown quantity. A late arrival to the Thatcher Ministry, Major had played no part in determining or enforcing the government’s Ireland policies. What stance he would take on the issue was unclear to the Army Council and indeed to this day political historians debate the course the Major Ministry may have taken had it avoided being snuffed out in its early days.


Needless to say, the plan proceeded…

- From: Going out with a Bang: The IRA in the aftermath of the February 7th Attack (Roy English, 2003)


The Van pulled up to the pavement just as Big Ben was striking ten that morning. A few miles away, the War Cabinet sat around a large table. Perusing files, discussing policy, these were men who had grown old and grey in the service of their country. Men I had served with for over a decade. Men I had come to hold in great esteem. At 10:08 the shells flew upwards. I had failed them …

- Former Home Secretary Kenneth Baker being interviewed in 2005 for Andrew Marr’s BBC documentary ‘The Dark Decade: Britain in the 90’s’


We interrupt this program to bring you an urgent bulletin from the BBC newsroom. In the last few minutes, we have been informed that an attack was launched on 10 Downing Street just after 10’o clock today. A mortar shell containing some form of explosive hit the rear of the building where the Prime Minister was holding a meeting of the War Cabinet. Casualties are unknown as of yet but it is feared that the Prime Minister and those present at the meeting are among them…

- An Emergency BBC news bulletin broadcasted on February 7 1991 at 10:15 AM

Within minutes, the phones were ringing themselves off the tables! People with questions upon questions: What’s going on? What do we do? What do we say to the press? I realised all too clearly that somehow I’d have to answer every last one them, and I’ll be honest: I sobbed…

-Former Home Secretary Kenneth Baker being interviewed in 2005 for Andrew Marr’s BBC documentary ‘The Dark Decade: Britain in the 90’s’

Government decapitated in terrorist attack

At 10:08 AM yesterday morning, three IRA mortar shells (fired from a van parked 200 yards away) were fired at 10 Downing Street, one of which succeeded in hitting its target. The epicentre of the ensuing explosion was the conference room where John Major was holding a meeting with senior political and military officials discussing policy in the current fighting in the Middle East.

The known list of casualties is as follows:

John Major: Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury
Norman Lamont: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Douglas Hurd: Foreign Secretary
Thomas King: Defence Secretary
Peter Lilley: Secretary for Trade and Industry
John Wakeham: Energy Secretary
David Mellor: Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Robin Butler: Cabinet Secretary
David Craig: Chief of the Defence Staff
Percy Cradock: Foreign Policy Adviser
Patrick Mayhew: Attorney General
Charles Powell: Private Secretary to the Prime Minister
Gus O’Donnell: Press Secretary to the Prime Minister


In a press conference yesterday evening the newly selected prime minister…

-Excerpt from the front page of the Daily Telegraph February 8th 1991

The February 7th attack created a brief crisis for the Conservative government. With the party leader and many senior figures dead, the party was in effect a headless chicken; still running around but with no one running it. Baker, the Home Secretary and senior surviving Cabinet member, assumed running of the government for the first few hours after the attack until an emergency Party conference was called on the evening of February 7th. Given the situation it was decided that a new leader was needed immediately. What’s more, the new leader would need to be strong, capable; someone the party could unite behind.

Deciding that was easy. Finding someone like that was the more difficult part. Most of the obvious candidates for the leadership were among the casualties of the mortar attack. Senior cabinet survivors such as Baker and Heseltine were considered too weak-willed or divisive in a situation where party unity was vital. In the end only two individuals stood on the ballot, both of them relatively junior party figures. Education Secretary Clarke and Employment Secretary Michael Howard.

The result was generally considered a foregone conclusion. Clarke was clearly capable as an administrator and under different circumstances would have made a good leader for his party and country. However, the circumstances called for someone a bit sterner to meet the terrorist threat. Howard was elected the party leader and Prime Minister by a substantial majority.

-From: The British Conservative Party 1991-2008 (John Ramsden, 2009)

I guess they’re getting their 24 hours now…

-Overheard comment by Michael Heseltine as Conservative leadership result announced Feb 7th 1991


Well...shall I continue?
 
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This is great so far Alberto, good to see that Prime Ministerial assassination timelines are growing in popularity. Hope that I gave you some help. I look forward to the next update!

Minor quibble for Mk. II; Baker was Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, Business Secretary is a new title that has just come in since Brown took over.
 
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Out of interest, does the UK have the equivalent of the US 'designated survivor'?

No; well, not officially. The nice thing about Parliamentary Style Government is that one always has a large number of (arguably) competent people sitting in the House at any one time which the monarch can pick to be Prime Minister at any one time.

Unofficially; there is perhaps a list of people drawn up to lead the country in the event of a Constitutional Crisis such as this.

Alberto is right however in making someone like Baker interim Prime Minister (similar to what I did with Lord Whitelaw) while the Party elects a new leader as soon as would be possible.
 
Out of interest, does the UK have the equivalent of the US 'designated survivor'?
Not really. It has to do with differences in the structure of government.

Whereas, in the United States, the President (and VP) are elected to office, and the rest of the line of succession is either confirmed by the senate or serving in congress, and thus is a fixed personage, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is (effectively) the leader of the largest party in the house of commons, serving at the request of the monarch. The cabinet, for its part, is named by the Prime Minister, generally from parliamentary allies and party bigshots. Were the Prime Minister to die, no specific member of the cabinet (or anybody else, for that matter) automatically ascends to the PM's office. The queen might, depending on the circumstances, appoint somebody to run a caretaker government (probably one of national unity), but in many scenarios (such as this, presumably), the largest party in parliament will choose a new leader, who is almost certainly then appointed to form a government.

I am interested in this timeline, and would like to see it develop.

BTW, I knew that there were some important people present in Downing Street at the time, but didn't realize whom or how many. I guess Baker and Heseltine are the only major ministers to survive. Somehow would have thought that one of them might get the job (although, on reflection, Heseltine might be a bad choice in the eyes of the party).

PM Michael Howard? So early? Interesting.

One final note. Thatcher is still in office at this time. Wonder what happens to her. Can she stay out of the limelight? Will she?
 
This is great so far Alberto, good to see that Prime Ministerial assassination timelines are growing in popularity. Hope that I gave you some help. I look forward to the next update!

Minor quibble for Mk. II; Baker was Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, Business Secretary is a new title that has just come in since Brown took over.

Your assisitance in getting this timeline going is much appreciated. In case you hadn't noticed I pretty much copied your layout (which you admitted copying yourself from Era of Limits I believe ;)).

Thanks for the heads up regarding Trade and Industry. I think you meant Lilley though.

I am interested in this timeline, and would like to see it develop.

Thank you.

BTW, I knew that there were some important people present in Downing Street at the time, but didn't realize whom or how many. I guess Baker and Heseltine are the only major ministers to survive. Somehow would have thought that one of them might get the job (although, on reflection, Heseltine might be a bad choice in the eyes of the party).
Well yes. Heseltine just isn't enough of a unifying figure so soon after the 1990 leadership contest. As for Baker, ignoring any other failings, it is hard to have confidence in the guy who was Home Secretary when terrorists succeeding in killing half of the Cabinet! Don't expect him to be in Howard's Ministry.



PM Michael Howard? So early? Interesting.
With most obvious candidates dead or in disgrace, Howard seemed to just be the best for the circumstances. A middling level Cabinet member with experience of government and a man who could be expected to take a hard stance on the terrorist threat.


One final note. Thatcher is still in office at this time. Wonder what happens to her. Can she stay out of the limelight? Will she?
Thatcher will be making a brief cameo in either the next installment or the one following it. That much I can gurantee.
 
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No; well, not officially. The nice thing about Parliamentary Style Government is that one always has a large number of (arguably) competent people sitting in the House at any one time which the monarch can pick to be Prime Minister at any one time.

I don't know about 1992 but if there was such a terrorist attack in 2009, the is more of a line of succession. COBRA would be called into play made up of senior ministers and officials and they have the power to run the country. I cannot find out when it was formed but I'm fairly sure it was in existence as far back as the 1970s.
 
Wow. This promises to be interesting. One wonders how this will change things down the road...

(One minor question: How do they know the IRA (or a splinter therefrom) did it? The Gulf War was going on at the time...)
 

Thande

Donor
Wow. This promises to be interesting. One wonders how this will change things down the road...

(One minor question: How do they know the IRA (or a splinter therefrom) did it? The Gulf War was going on at the time...)

Because it was done competently.

A good choice for a TL, Alberto; Zyzzyva is going to wet himself with excitement when he comes back ;)
 
Well yes. Heseltine just isn't enough of a unifying figure so soon after the 1990 leadership contest. As for Baker, ignoring any other failings, it is hard to have confidence in the guy who was Home Secretary when terrorists succeeding in killing half of the Cabinet! Don't expect him to be in Howard's Ministry.
I suppose its this bit which raises the most questions for me. In effect, the elected government of the United Kingdom has been decapitated (including Lamont, who I was a little surprised to find was present at the time), and a decent number of middling positions are now vacant as well. In short, the nation needs leadership, and fast. And while I can understand a possible backlash against baker, it could take a while for this to develop. In the meantime, however, despite his slowly fading popularity, the fact remains that Baker is the only surviving holder of one of the great offices of state, is, in fact, one of the highest-ranking survivors of the attack, and was a very strong figure within the Conservative party. In addition, his image might arguably translate well into a security-focused caretaker government.

Upon further reflection. I can understand excluding Heseltine. He might force his way into office, but he probably lacks the power or the personality.
 
I agree with those who have siad that Baker might still emerge as leader, but even more likely I would have thought would be a clamour for the return of Margaret To the leadership. She was still an MP at this point.
 
I agree with those who have siad that Baker might still emerge as leader, but even more likely I would have thought would be a clamour for the return of Margaret To the leadership. She was still an MP at this point.

Baker maybe (I'm reconsidering my position on him) but not Thatcher. She'd been forced out less than a year before the POD, even given the circumstances I don't think the Conservatives would want her back.
 
Sorry for the hiatus on this...schoolwork gets in the way of internet hobbies don't you know? Anyway, this short installment is just to finish the setup, after this the timeline should get moving a bit.

So without further me blabbering:

Part 2: Picking up the Pieces

Prime Minister selects new Cabinet in aftermath of terrorist attack

This morning, the newly appointed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Michael Howard announced the results of a major Cabinet reshuffle in the aftermath of February 7th. The announced Ministry is unusual for the number of junior figures present but given the circumstances of its formation this is understandable for the most part.

The results of the reshuffle are as follows:

Michael Howard: Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury
Kenneth Clarke: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Norman Fowler: Secretary of State for the Home Department
George Younger: Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Michael Jopling: Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Malcolm Rifkind: Secretary of State for Defence
William Waldegrave: Secretary of State for Education & Science
Kenneth Baker: Secretary of State for Employment
Peter Walker: Secretary of State for Energy
Stephen Dorell: Secretary of State for the Environment
Gillian Shepherd: Secretary of State for Health
Brian Mawhinney: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
John MacGregor: Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons
Lord Waddington: Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords
Chris Patten: Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Conservative Party Chairman
Tony Newton: Secretary of State for Social Security
Ian Lang: Secretary of State for Scotland
Peter Brooke: Secretary of State for Trade and Industry
John Gummer: Secretary of State for Transport
Michael Portillo: Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Lord Mackay: Lord Chancellor
John Redwood: Secretary of State for Wales

-Headline from The Daily Telegraph February 9th 1991

It was a strange cabinet, no doubt about that, but these were strange circumstances. Howard had to get a Ministry together ASAP and senior party members with Cabinet experience were thin on the ground. Fowler and Younger were brought kicking and screaming out of semi-retirement to help provide an air of experience and even that idiot Baker was kept on because no-one better was around. Even Clarke, who Howard never really saw eye to eye with, got a top job out of sheer necessity. It was never going to last long and the cracks were beginning to show even then but for the first few months Howard papered over them well enough. There was one issue everyone could agree on and after the 18th he was able to focus on it all the better.

-Former Leader of the Opposition Michael Portillo interviewed in 2005 for Andrew Marr’s BBC documentary The Dark Decade: Britain in the 90’s

Terrorist attacks at Victoria and Paddington kill 5, injure over 50!

-Headline from The Evening Standard February 18th 1991

Everyone at the time expected Howard to launch some type of mass-scale crackdown on the IRA and frankly given the events of February most people would have gone along with him. But it never came. This is not to say that nothing was being done. The 1991 Terrorism Act gave unprecedented powers to the Home Office (for the next few years a suspected IRA man could be held for three months without questioning) and within months paramilitary organizations like the Ulster Defence Force were out of commission but despite the fashion to call it The Dark Decade life went on basically the same during the nineties…for the most part.

-From: Historical Misconceptions of the 20th Century (Sean Tanvir, 2022)
 
Well, congratulations on butterflying away one of the most ineffective PR moments ever by putting Gummer at Transport.
 
Major Assassination...

An interesting TL though I've my doubts that even if the mortar had landed inside Downing Street it would have had the impact described, Without knowledge, I would guess the windows in 10 Downing Street are reinforced glass to prevent shattering from an explosion.

However...I'll just muse on the politics for a moment.

Seven dead MPs would mean seven by-elections and they aren't all Tory shoo-ins by any stretch. It's likely Lamont's seat in Kingston would go to the Lib Dems and King's in Bridgwater might go too. Remember the murder of Ian Gow the previous autumn when the Lib Dems captured the seat in the subsequent by-election.

I'm frankly doubtful about the promotion of Fowler and Younger to be honest. I suspect Rifkind would be the more likely candidate for the Foreign Secretary job while David Waddington had served as a Home Secretary under Thatcher and could have done the job under the circumstances.
 
An interesting TL though I've my doubts that even if the mortar had landed inside Downing Street it would have had the impact described, Without knowledge, I would guess the windows in 10 Downing Street are reinforced glass to prevent shattering from an explosion.

Thank you.

In regards to the explosion, I'll admit I don't have much to go on and I'm assuming it hit the conference room precisely but given the mortar was carrying 40 pounds of Semtex I don't think I'm stretching plausibility a great deal.

All I know of the windows is they had bomb-proof netting at this point. What effect that could have had in this situation I have no idea.


However...I'll just muse on the politics for a moment.

By all means...

Seven dead MPs would mean seven by-elections and they aren't all Tory shoo-ins by any stretch. It's likely Lamont's seat in Kingston would go to the Lib Dems and King's in Bridgwater might go too. Remember the murder of Ian Gow the previous autumn when the Lib Dems captured the seat in the subsequent by-election.

I'm going to have to respectively disagree. The Conservatives had the vote fairly secured in most of these constituencies and given the situation that brought the by-elections about, the hype can only strengthen their position.

Anyways...whose to say there will be any by-elections? ;)

I'm frankly doubtful about the promotion of Fowler and Younger to be honest. I suspect Rifkind would be the more likely candidate for the Foreign Secretary job while David Waddington had served as a Home Secretary under Thatcher and could have done the job under the circumstances

I felt that given the prime minister himself was fairly junior, having a couple more experienced and respected politicians in the ranks would be a prudent move for the Conservatives. Fowler and Younger seemed to fit the bill.

Waddington as Home Secretary works and I may go and recon things slightly in light of it but I'm going to keep Younger at the Foreign Office. The government needs some gravitas damn it!
 
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