Was there a non-ASB way to make the Soviet Union make The Islamic Republic of Iran it's chief ally instead of Iraq
Soviet Iranian Relations
- Thread starter nikkythegreat
- Start date
Well, it would take several PODs:
* first of all, no Iraq-Iran war. Because of it, openly siding with Iran would alienate most Arab countries, and nobody (except maybe North Korea
) would subscribe to that.* no 1982-83 crackdown on Tudeh. (although some think it was inevitable and Kuzichkin leak played no role as Tudeh's Moscow links were an open secret)
* no Soviet invasion of Afghanistan would help, too, although it's not sine qua non.
Also, some personalities might have played a part in deterioration of Soviet-Iran relations:
* Vinogradov (Soviet envoy to Tehran 1977-1982) was an ambassador to Egypt before that and relations with Egypt went down the drain, too. Coincidence? Or was he a man to spoil everything? Who knows...
* Aliyev talking about "reunification of Azerbaijanis" was an outright insult to Tehran. Well, on the other hand, he was an experienced politician and kept his mouth shut while relations were good.
None of this requires ASB to change, but at the moment I can't see how it can be reduced to a single POD.
Not sure about that. The whole region was pretty unstable, so an earlier PoD would have too many butterflies.
I'm inclined to think that Brezhnev dying (or even resigning/forced to resign) earlier, in around 1976...77, could do the trick, leading to a more sensible Soviet policy towards the region - like not invading Afghanistan (they actually knew it was a stupid thing to do, but they felt it was too late for other options) and either successful 1978 coup in Iraq or no coup at all.
How about the Soviets support the Islamic fundamentalists in Iran since it was a very pro-american monarchy back then,
And when it succeeds maybe the islamic republic would be more friendly to the USSR
Is this possible?
And when it succeeds maybe the islamic republic would be more friendly to the USSR
Is this possible?
Hardly.
Soviets would rather not support them both out of principle (what? religious fundamentalists?) and out of practical considerations (spread of hard-line Islam threatens their soft belly in Middle Asia). The only case would be if there was a real threat of Islamic republic being replaced with strongly pro-American regime again, and even then any Soviet support would be channelled through their leftist agents of influence, not directly to Islamists.
What is important: Iranian revolution was quite a mess in its first two-three years, with all sorts of parties, movements and paramilitaries running to and fro. Among them, there were several Soviet agents of influence, most notably Tudeh. Iraqi invasion greatly helped Islamists consolidate their power; without Iraq-Iran war, revolution could pretty well end in a more moderate regime which could include Soviet-backed forces.
Wolfpaw
Banned
I think the best POD would be to have the Mojahedin take power during/after the Revolution instead of the Islamists. Perhaps have Khomeini assassinated as that would strip the fundamentalists of their greatest asset.
Tudeh's far too extreme for Iran to swallow. They were always viewed as a Soviet puppet and were flat-out Communists, something that doesn't fly outside of cities and university campuses.
The Mojahedin, on the other hand, combined fundamentalist Islam with socialism and were friendly with the Soviets, or at the very least not as viciously anti-Soviet as Khomeini and his clutch were. So have the Islamic-Marxists take over and you've got a Soviet-friendly (or not Soviet-hostile, which is pretty good too) regime in Tehran.
Maybe the Tudeh would launch a Jacobin like coup, but they'd lose (badly) and this would greatly sour USSR-Iran relations.
Tudeh's far too extreme for Iran to swallow. They were always viewed as a Soviet puppet and were flat-out Communists, something that doesn't fly outside of cities and university campuses.
The Mojahedin, on the other hand, combined fundamentalist Islam with socialism and were friendly with the Soviets, or at the very least not as viciously anti-Soviet as Khomeini and his clutch were. So have the Islamic-Marxists take over and you've got a Soviet-friendly (or not Soviet-hostile, which is pretty good too) regime in Tehran.
Maybe the Tudeh would launch a Jacobin like coup, but they'd lose (badly) and this would greatly sour USSR-Iran relations.
Maybe not with the Islamic Republic. Perhaps if Operation Ajax fails spectacularly Iran could turn to the Soviets.