Social consequences of WW1

[Friedrich der Große]

Last day, I saw two video’s from AlternateHistoryHub about a German victory in WW1. Important is that this happens in a “East First-scenario”, in which Germany focuses on Russia first and later defeat France (1917). Britain will still join the allies. In the second video, the social consequences of this scenario are discussed. AHH suggests that the society will be much conservative and nationalist, very much based on the old order, and people doesn’t become disinterested in this old order. Also colonialism and monarchism will stay, he says.

My question: will these social consequences still happen in a scenario in which Germany wins in 1918 because of no submarine warfare (sort of Kaiserreich POD)?

 

[NAF]

It's one thing to predict that the old order conservatism typically associated with the Kaiserreich would be given a shot in the arm in an early (say 1914) CP victory. It's another thing entirely to say that the same would happen in a late victory scenario. By 1918 the Kaiser has already made promises to introduce reform and liberalize to a degree, and it can be expected that any political trends in Germany will spread to an extent in its new client states in Europe. I expect that the SPD will continue to make great strides in German politics, whereas hard-right and hard-left parties struggle to gain much ground without the same impetuses toward radicalization brought about by Germany's OTL defeat.

That said, I do think that Germany, and the West as a whole, will overall be more socially conservative and nationalist compared to OTL -- though this is more due to the assumed lack of a WW2 than it is a German victory in WW1. The carnage of WW2 and the horrors of Nazism are what led to many of the "self-hating" tendencies we see in the West today, and so with their absence I expect we'd see less widespread rejection of traditional values and nationalism. Colonialism will be on the way out in any case. It's a mistake to assume that decolonization was primarily driven by a change of heart on the part of the European powers, as opposed to the economic realities of the colonies being woefully unprofitable and the European powers being broke. So while a lack of a WW2 may mean that Europe possibly holds onto its colonies longer than OTL, I doubt it would be much longer, and almost certainly not until the present day. I agree that monarchism would be much more prevalent in Europe, as Germany will more than likely keep its Kaiser and install friendly monarchs in its satellite states (though I expect these would all become largely ceremonial institutions over time).

To give an idea of what I think this alt!Europe could look like by the modern day, I'd imagine something along the lines of a more social democratic Japan. That is to say: greater emphasis on collectivism over the individual, more widespread belief in traditional gender/family values, less progress made toward LGBT rights, pressure to conform to social norms, etc., etc. So while I do think you'd see a more conservative society as a whole, I don't think it would be significantly more so.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

It's one thing to predict that the old order conservatism typically associated with the Kaiserreich would be given a shot in the arm in an early (say 1914) CP victory. It's another thing entirely to say that the same would happen in a late victory scenario. By 1918 the Kaiser has already made promises to introduce reform and liberalize to a degree, and it can be expected that any political trends in Germany will spread to an extent in its new client states in Europe.

You refer to the Easter Message of March 1917? Didn’t he make that promise only based on the advice of Bethmann Hollweg to influence the public opinion? And after BH was sacked, Hindenburg and Ludendorff gained even more power, as we see in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk which was in fact the execution of the far-right war goals. And the Hindenburg-Ludendorff-regime will only be stronger if Germany wins. Won’t this mean a continuation of an authoritarian state?

I expect that the SPD will continue to make great strides in German politics, whereas hard-right and hard-left parties struggle to gain much ground without the same impetuses toward radicalization brought about by Germany's OTL defeat.

I agree that there could be less ground for them, but WW1 on its own shaped a ground for extremist powers. Look only at the number of members of the far-right German Fatherland Party (DVLP). Struggles with the SPD are inevitable, I agree.

That said, I do think that Germany, and the West as a whole, will overall be more socially conservative and nationalist compared to OTL -- though this is more due to the assumed lack of a WW2 than it is a German victory in WW1. The carnage of WW2 and the horrors of Nazism are what led to many of the "self-hating" tendencies we see in the West today, and so with their absence I expect we'd see less widespread rejection of traditional values and nationalism. Colonialism will be on the way out in any case. It's a mistake to assume that decolonization was primarily driven by a change of heart on the part of the European powers, as opposed to the economic realities of the colonies being woefully unprofitable and the European powers being broke. So while a lack of a WW2 may mean that Europe possibly holds onto its colonies longer than OTL, I doubt it would be much longer, and almost certainly not until the present day.

Yeah that’s what I meant with colonialism, that it could stay longer, maybe to the 1970s or 80s.

I agree that monarchism would be much more prevalent in Europe, as Germany will more than likely keep its Kaiser and install friendly monarchs in its satellite states (though I expect these would all become largely ceremonial institutions over time).

To give an idea of what I think this alt!Europe could look like by the modern day, I'd imagine something along the lines of a more social democratic Japan. That is to say: greater emphasis on collectivism over the individual, more widespread belief in traditional gender/family values, less progress made toward LGBT rights, pressure to conform to social norms, etc., etc. So while I do think you'd see a more conservative society as a whole, I don't think it would be significantly more so.

How about the old traditionalist (and authoritarian) Prussian and German militarist culture? Will this dominate Germany and Eastern Europe?

Off course I think it is also important what happens with Austria, Russia, America etc., but that is a question of debate. I think indeed broadly speaking we can see how the culture and society in Europe and the world will look like.

 

[NAF]

You refer to the Easter Message of March 1917? Didn’t he make that promise only based on the advice of Bethmann Hollweg to influence the public opinion? And after BH was sacked, Hindenburg and Ludendorff gained even more power, as we see in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk which was in fact the execution of the far-right war goals. And the Hindenburg-Ludendorff-regime will only be stronger if Germany wins. Won’t this mean a continuation of an authoritarian state?

As I understand it the H-L "regime" was established on legal grounds at the behest of the civilian government, and would immediately hand back power after the war concluded. Hindenburg would almost certainly not become a dictator, as he was first and foremost loyal to the Kaiser and would go along with his wishes, however reluctantly, should Wilhelm stay true to his promises to introduce reform. Even after the abolishment of the monarchy, Hindenburg wrote to an exiled Wilhelm asking for permission to run for the presidency in the 1920 election. Ultimately I expect gradual liberalization to be accepted -- grudgingly -- by the conservative establishment. If a regression into authoritarianism does occur, I expect it would be a result of a failure to address whatever Great Depression analogue occurs ITTL, rather than through a continuation of the wartime military dictatorship.

How about the old traditionalist (and authoritarian) Prussian and German militarist culture? Will this dominate Germany and Eastern Europe?

"Dominate" is a strong word, as I do think the "Prussian militarist" character of Germany will soften somewhat over time with rising social democratic influence, but I still expect it to be rather influential. Germany's pride in its armed forces will have been vindicated and strengthened by its victory, and with the need to garrison forces in the East to safeguard their conquests I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a "support the troops" mentality such as we see in the modern US emerge in ATL Germany. And while I do expect German culture to become quite popular across Europe, I can also see growing resentment towards it depending on Germany's treatment of its client states.

Also, I would expect German to take the place of OTL English in becoming the de facto lingua franca of Europe (at least everything east of the French, who I expect would refuse to learn it out of spite). This is a possibility that's always interested me in CP victory timelines -- German takes the place of English as the European lingua franca and German media becomes the cultural standard on the continent, with the Anglosphere being much more culturally isolated as a result.

Off course I think it is also important what happens with Austria, Russia, America etc., but that is a question of debate. I think indeed broadly speaking we can see how the culture and society in Europe and the world will look like.

Absolutely. Of particular importance IMO is what happens in the case of Russia. If the Bolsheviks or any other radical leftist government take over then we can expect Germany and the rest of Europe to go through some sort of Red Scare with all that entails. If there's a strong, atheistic communist power to the East then I'd expect German society to become more militaristic, religious, and socially conservative as a reaction.

As for Austria, by 1918 they were tied to Germany at the hip and were by all accounts a satellite state. For the first couple decades or so I imagine that they'll be dancing to Berlin's tune.

Moving on to the US, I'll assume from your scenario that they remained neutral due to no resumption of USW. Continued neutrality has pretty big implications for the US. For one, there's the obvious matter of German-American culture not being suppressed to near non-existence. Winning cultures are sexy, so I'd expect Americans to take much greater pride in their German character, with events like Oktoberfest gaining as much popularity as, say, St. Patrick's Day. We also probably would not see Prohibition, or at least if we did it would not include beer. This prevents the meteoric rise of organized crime in the US, and "gangsterism" never becomes the cultural phenomenon it did. There's also a greater likelihood (though not a guarantee) of the US adopting universal healthcare, as the idea was gaining traction in the country before it became tainted by its association with the hated Germans. Ditto for public universities. Other differences are that the US has not spent an incredible amount of money and resources, nor lost over 100,000 young men in their prime, in fighting an unpopular war. If the Democrats are still in charge they're likely praised for keeping the country out of Europe's madness, and so the Progressive Era may continue on without being discredited as in OTL. I expect the US to build a huge fleet so that the Germans don't get any funny ideas, but otherwise remains staunchly isolationist. If you can't tell already, I'm of the opinion that WW1 was a very unhealthy experience for the US, and that American society would be in a much better place without the OTL entry into the war.