Russians take China instead of Manchu?

[Sharkani Rend]

In early 17th century, two eastward fluxes converge in space and time.:

1. In 1616-1644 the Manchu took over China
2. In 1580-1639 the Russians took over Siberia ( Northern Asia ), reaching the Pacific for good.

In fact exactly the same time when Russian moved East, the Manchu moved South.

There were http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian–Manchu_border_conflicts not only in the end of 17th century, BUT also during the Russian drang-nach-osten earlier at the begining of the century. Russian lost in general and failed to achieve great territorial expansion into China, due to the fact that the locals possessed firearms too and because of Russia was unable to project so much power so far east. The reasons for Russia's relative weakness could be sought perhaps in its demographic and overally weaker situation following the bitter reality of the beginning of 17th century.: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_Troubles

Now lets imagine that Godunov-Sapieha ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lew_Sapieha ) project for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian–Muscovite_Commonwealth have succeeded.

The Union constitution prescribes that the Vasa and Romanov dynasties shall be united, issuing single ruler in the next generations belonging to both of them. The other important and sternly enforced point is that officially the 1054 AD schism between Catolics and Otrodox christians is deemed "healled" and as result religious tolerance is imposed effectivelly, via official denial of the differences.

In result Russia evades the OTL killing 1/3rd of its population famine and other deadly moments.

Thus in the next few decades the projections of power of Russia in the Far East are 4-5 times stronger. The demographic, economical and military power of PLM ( Polish-Lithuanian-Muskovy ) is several times stronger.

It is the time of the Great expansion of the European powers accross the oceans. Controling China is very desirable goal.

In 1616-1644 NOT the Manchu ( who are destroyed and their remnants adopted by the PLM war machine ) BUT PLM takes over China.

The PLM Romanov-Vasa Emperor ( Tsar of Russias, King of Poland, Grand Duke of Lithuania ) takes the Dragon Throne and holds it for 300-400 years.

This Chinese dynasty is called Luoma ( Roman, from Rome, cause the West/Rome took over China and the family name of the "Roman" dynasty is Romanov ) ...

 

[RousseauX]

The Manchu army which conquered China numbered at least 120k.

How does Russia transport/supply an army of this size thousands of miles away from their base of power about 250 years before the trans-Siberian railroad and time the invasion at the exact right moment like the Manchus could because their homeland has being next door to China for centuries?

 

[wilcoxchar]

This seems very, very implausible. The sheer distances from the Russian imperial core and the fact that much of the terrain crossed being desert make it almost impossible for Russia to conquer and retain a hold of China. Especially with China's high population and the lack of overland power projection capabilities at the time, I just don't see how Russia can take over China in that short a timeframe and keep hold of it.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

The Manchus didn't conquer all of China between 1616 and 1644. 1644 was the start of their invasion of China. They didn't eliminate the last Ming claimant until 1662, and they didn't remove the semi-independent military governors until 1681.

Anyways, the idea that 17th century Russia had the logistics and numbers to conquer 17th century China is essentially ridiculous. Taking Manchuria might be the most Russia could do. But all of China, from Beijing to Guangzhou? At least the Manchus had experience dealing with Chinese. The Russians didn't have the same advantages.

 

[FDW]

Yeah, while it may be interesting, you'd need a POD much farther back (to at least before the Mongols) for this to really have a shot at being plausible.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

Ok, I'll reply in detail in the next couple of days...

 

[RGB]

Russia reaching the Pacific is easy. Russia crossing the desert south is hard (demographic imbalance aside).

The Amur is key. Every time the Qing sent troops against Russian forts they sent it by sea and up the Amur.

Qing without a Chinese navy might not be able to do it at all.

On the other hand, Khabarov had 10 guns with him, and Albazin fort only had 3 during the siege. This isn't nearly enough to conquer anything.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Best time for Russia to conquer a piece of China would be during the Revolt of the Three Feudatories. While the Russians may not get all of China, at least they can take out the Qing and maybe restore the Ming. Earlier than the Revolt of the Three Feudatories, I guess an internal crisis in Ming China plus an earlier, more aggressive Russian expansion into the Far East may be plausible. Logistics would be the main issue though.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

In fact PLM ( Poland-Lithuania-Moscow ) Union DOES have the necessary military applicable demography all in place to knock down Manchu and to avalanche their remnants South into China.

Direcrting serious resources into the Far East shall serve also as safety valve for the collection of more or less rogue forces which are abundant in the Steppe zone of Eastern Europe, i.e. thus PLM will get rid of the tensions generated by betrayals, side-sfihting, unloyalty and turmoil comming from:
1. PL private Magnate armies
2. Cossacs
3. Tatars
4. Oirat / Kalmyks ( Oirat along the lines of their common with Tibetians aggressive Budhist sect are pretty good interface for excerting real control over Central Asia ).
5. Bashkir and other South-eastern and Eastern Europe non-slavic people
6. The refugees from the 3-yrs War

Just by sweeping these bits and pieces in direction of Manchuria PLM will secure its Core and will use only the regular Union army in order to achieve the maximum during the 30-years war and to consolidate its western border for good ( integrating, say, Prussia-Brandenburg, Hungary, Bohemia, Moravia, Transilvania, Moldova, Walachia ... ).

The 30-years war also generates massive migration of religious persecution refugees from Western and Central Europe which shall be attracted by:
1. The sternly maintained religious tolerance in PLM Union
2. The "free land" offered in Far East ( Southern and Central Manchuria is both, fertile and appropriate for European style of agriculture, and very sparcely populated ).

In 1600:
Manchu are about 2 mln.
PLM ( incl. aka Ruthenia - i.e. Ukraine, the Cossack territories ) is 18-20 mln. Including most of Eastern half of Europe we are talking about 50-60% of the total European population or 40-50-ish mln. people. ( data from http://worldhistorysite.com/population.html )

China - 100-ish mln.

Manchu army was, you say, 120k men.
...

OTL Russians with expeditions numbering ONLY dozens to hundreds of men with ONLY several guns set the border on Amur river.

Organized and planned migration and settlement of substantial masses of people to the fertile stepping-stones-spots on the Steppe, and in Southern Manchuria ( taking decades of course ) SHALL provide the manpower in place which not only to replace the Manchu success, but also to outperform it 10s-of-folds.

So, we are not talking about "projecting military power" on 10 000 km distance, but rather I'm emphasizing on the opportunity a powerhouse of the magnitude of the native Manchu to be established in Manchuria ( say, growing up by immigration and naturally, up to 2-4 mln. european settlers between 1600 AD and 1700 AD ).

 

[RousseauX]

OTL Russians with expeditions numbering ONLY dozens to hundreds of men with ONLY several guns set the border on Amur river.

Organized and planned migration and settlement of substantial masses of people to the fertile stepping-stones-spots on the Steppe, and in Southern Manchuria ( taking decades of course ) SHALL provide the manpower in place which not only to replace the Manchu success, but also to outperform it 10s-of-folds.

So, we are not talking about "projecting military power" on 10 000 km distance, but rather I'm emphasizing on the opportunity a powerhouse of the magnitude of the native Manchu to be established in Manchuria ( say, growing up by immigration and naturally, up to 2-4 mln. european settlers between 1600 AD and 1700 AD ).

But that's the thing though, there's a reason why so few people migrated into the Amur region. If your plan is to -replace- the Manchus pre-1650 then you are going to have to explain how Russia manage to project enough military power into Manchuria to effective boot the Manchus out of the territory (you need to do this for your colonial project to work), and then set about conducting what amounts to Stalinesque scale of population transfer over the entirety of Siberia to settle on a particular patch of the Eurasian plain when it makes far more sense to settle on much closer patchs of the steppe which is what happened OTL.

 

[wilcoxchar]

OTL Russians with expeditions numbering ONLY dozens to hundreds of men with ONLY several guns set the border on Amur river.

No it didn't. In the treaty of Nerchinsk Russia gave up the northern watershed of the Amur and set the border at the Stanovoy Mountains. The Amur didn't become the border until two centuries later after the Treaty of Argun, when Russia finally had the capability to project its power reliably into Siberia that consisted of more than sending small exploratory expeditions.

 

[Ofaloaf]

Hold on, I just drove through the part of the Russian steppes (drove from the Georgian border to Astrakhan). It's pretty awful out there for massive settlements. The land's dry and most of it's only suitable for pastureland. Good, reliable water sources are few and far between, and in general there's a reason why nomads and not sedentary farmers were the majority out there for most of history.

There's also the question as to why a Polish-Lithuanian-Russian combo decides to focus on the far side of the earth and not, say, the Crimea or Sweden or some place that's much, much closer.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So how does the PLMC come into play, and how could they be established?

 

[Unconsensual]

This simply wouldn't be possible before the Trans-Siberian railway, and even at it's completion it was a single track line.

Insufficient for any major operations or trade.

So your going to have to allow additional time and money to extend the line, by then your pushing dangerously close WWI and general Russian weakness starting from 1914.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

But that's the thing though, there's a reason why so few people migrated into the Amur region.

Not exactly "Amur region" but the territory south of it - the NE corner of Inner Manchuria - notice the fertility spot from the maps above. It is the best agricultural territory of modern OTL China after Shanghai area. It is simulatenously far enough and close enough to serve as a maneuvering ground/base/place of arms. It is BETTER than everything else along the Eurasian Highway/Backbone the Steppe in terms of agricultural suitability, either.

If your plan is to -replace- the Manchus pre-1650 then you are going to have to explain how Russia manage to project enough military power into Manchuria to effective boot the Manchus out of the territory (you need to do this for your colonial project to work),

Chain reaction along the Highway from West to East, similar to the reverse which happened OTL in Ghengiz times. Cossacs and Kalmyks press and drag along Nogai and other Tatars, Kalmyk connection with Tibet, Oirat links with Mongols ... Allthough lots in ethnic variety except Ruthenians / Cossacs the non-slavic other elements in the chain are relatively not so numrous, so they get totally Cossackized in a generation or two while the Union's drang-nach-osten proceeds. In OTL RU Cossacks encountered the Manchu more or less by accident, ITTL the goal is direct - to be there and to take China.

and then set about conducting what amounts to Stalinesque scale of population transfer over the entirety of Siberia to settle on a particular patch of the Eurasian plain when it makes far more sense to settle on much closer patchs of the steppe which is what happened OTL.

Not Stalinisque - there are already 2 mln. all over Manchuria present. They won't disappear, only their state and military organization would be crushed and replaced by the Union one. The initial settlement will be in the manner of Cossack voiskos / hosts and ostrogs installed there... Euro-peasants will follow the military attracted by: 1. good free land, 2. local abolition of serfdom for them... The century or so from 1600 to 1700 roughly is more than enough the number of settlers / invaders to become dominant in this territory. Like under Manchu regime to ehtnic Han is forbidden to settle north of the Great wall.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

No it didn't. In the treaty of Nerchinsk Russia gave up the northern watershed of the Amur and set the border at the Stanovoy Mountains. The Amur didn't become the border until two centuries later after the Treaty of Argun, when Russia finally had the capability to project its power reliably into Siberia that consisted of more than sending small exploratory expeditions.

Yes. Sorry, you are right. BUT, it does not change the overall pic, given the PoD described circumstances.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

Hold on, I just drove through the part of the Russian steppes (drove from the Georgian border to Astrakhan). It's pretty awful out there for massive settlements. The land's dry and most of it's only suitable for pastureland. Good, reliable water sources are few and far between, and in general there's a reason why nomads and not sedentary farmers were the majority out there for most of history.

Yep. Exactly. The appropriate for euro-style agriculture region / Inner Manchuria / is on the eastern end of the Steppe Highway. The invaders / settler use their control over the Steppe / Silk roaf achieved via asimilation / integration in the war- / nobility-machine of the Union initially of the Steppe people. The Steppe people ALWAYS ( since they at all exist , since the domestication of the horse ~7 millenia ago ) have the urge to attack the sedentiary farming societies around the Steppe. The Union's intention and plan gives them all they need.

The Union has its Cossacks and their steppe-style ( compare with the Kalmyk-Oirat Steppe/Nomad Code ) are very suitable for integration. In effect all steppe people become Cossacks, and their peoples Voiskos / Hosts.

There's also the question as to why a Polish-Lithuanian-Russian combo decides to focus on the far side of the earth and not, say, the Crimea or Sweden or some place that's much, much closer.

It DOES in fact. AS a side effect of power, Sigismund Vasa regains the Swedish throne ( by money, bribe, demo of power before the Diet members ) in a (initially) personal union with the Union. Crimea is taken and integrated into the Union constituent country of Ruthenia ( Ukraine / genuine Cossacks' territory ) after being evacuated from the Tatar ruling military elite.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

So how does the PLMC come into play, and how could they be established?

The Godunov-Sapieha negotiations are successful.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian–Muscovite_Commonwealth#Rationale

...up to the creation of one country, using the framework of that led to the creation of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth in the first place (Union of Lublin of 1569). However all proposals presented by the Polish side were rejected by the Russian tsar. The most promising negotiations took place during 1600, when a Polish diplomatic mission led by Lew Sapieha arrived in Moscow. Sapieha presented to Boris Godunov an elaborated idea of a union between Poland–Lithuania and Russia. The subjects of both rulers were to be free to serve the other ruler, travel to his country, contract marriages with the other ruler's subjects, own land and go to study in the other ruler's country.[1]

The Unia Quadrista forms by a 1601 Treaty of Moscow, which is its Constitution.

In short: The Union is political - it forms one single unitary country, not federation. ( from the perspective of the modern constitutional law, classed in a group similar to OTL modern UK - an unitary state, but with 3-4 local jurisdictions / Home nations ).

The thus formed union's home nations are: Kingdom of Poland+Grand Dutchy of Lithuania & Tsardom of Russia+Grand Dutchy of Ruthenia.

The shlyakhta / boyars has its Golden Rights, but they no Liberum Veto, the power of the single two-houses Union Parliament / Seim is perfectly balanced with this of the Monarch one.

Single monarch / Emperor , BUT the position is shared between Sigismund and Feodor II ( who survives, not get killed ITTL ) - one title, several holders has precedents in Western history - Sparta, Rome... - until single most appropriate heir produced from the both dynasties is inthroned in future. Then the Heir becomes hereditiary Emperor. Temporary the non-common heirs of Vasa-Jagelon and Romanov are responsible inside the country for respectivelly West ( Kingdom of Poland+Grand Dutchy of Lithuania ) and East ( Tsardom of Russia+Grand Dutchy of Ruthenia ), for outsiders - only both.

The title of the common Heir will be Tsar ( which means Emperor = contraction of Caesar ).

Sweden is not part of the Union, but initially in personal,

introducing a personal union between the Commonwealth and ...... , and various economic and political agreements (elimination of trade barriers, free movement of people, etc.)

later in real monarchic union with the Union.

The same with Prussia, Saxony, Brandenburg, Pomerelia, Bohemia and Moravia... later.

Using the more or less OTL "rogue elements" emitted in the Far East, the Union can afford to consolidate in the West more or less peacefully.

The Union does not participate activelly in the 30-yrs war, but sucks in innumerable religious refugees mostly from the germanic lands.

In result from the tensions with Ottomans in result of elimination of their stronghold north of Black sea - the replacement of the Krimmean Tatars, the Union takes Hungary, Transilvania, Walachia, Moldova and sets the border with Ottomans on Danube-Sava.

 

[Daztur]

One thing that would make it easier would to be simply divide China more. Perhaps a southern remnant ethnic Chinese kingdom establishes itself in the south leading to the Manchus (with the north half) having to deal with garrisoning the southern border while fending off the Russians. Of course the Russians couldn't take EVERYTHING, but they could take a good chunk.

 

[Elfwine]

This doesn't sound at all like Russians taking China, it sounds like groups that are nominally part of a group that's sorta vassalized to the Whatever He's Called Again taking over China.

And that's if it works.