Plausiblity check: Mongol North Africa

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Deleted member 67076

Would it be at all plausible for the Mongols to conquer the Manluks and overrun the whole of North Africa? If so, how long could they hold the territory and what would be the effects of this?
 
Would it be at all plausible for the Mongols to conquer the Manluks and overrun the whole of North Africa? If so, how long could they hold the territory and what would be the effects of this?

They could try, certainly. They went as far as Persia and established Khanates there, so I wouldn't call it impossible. However, the leaders would be assimilated into the local culture within a few generations.
 
North Africa is doubtful as there is not enough grassland to keep their horses fed. It was also why they never really expanded much beyond Persia into the Middle East.
 
If the Mongols win at Ain Jalut, Egypt is open, but crossing the Sahara and getting even as far as Libya is a far more tenuous proposition.
 
West of Egypt, there isn't much worth conquering for the Mongols. I don't doubt their ability to travel further west but what incentive do they have of marching their armies and risking death in the desert?
 

Deleted member 67076

Mongol victory at Ayn Jalut, they can rampage as far as Morocco unopposed.
What would be the effects of this in the long term? Would it be a big blow to North Africa?

West of Egypt, there isn't much worth conquering for the Mongols. I don't doubt their ability to travel further west but what incentive do they have of marching their armies and risking death in the desert?
I might be wrong but didn't some Khans order the destruction of states/groups despite common sense saying its not worth it? Like say if the Khans ambassadors were killed because a local warlord was being a dick?
 
What would be the effects of this in the long term? Would it be a big blow to North Africa?

There's a general belief that this would have been a tremendous blow to Islam on the whole, but this has to be taken within a with a pinch of salt. It is possible however that cities like Cairo and (if they go further) Marrakech will be set alight like Baghdad.
If they do reach Morocco they will certainly go for the rich lands of Al-Andalus. Which if iirc is either under the Almohads or the second or third Taifa period, so will be generally easy pickings.
 

katchen

Banned
The Egyptian and Libyan Mediteranean coasts are dry, but they do get some rain during the winter. There are oases at places like Matruh, Sallum and Sidi Barrani before coming to Tobruk, then Cyrenaica is arable (Tobruk to Benghazi, and then as we saw during the Libyan War, you get oasis towns until you get to Sirte (Leptis Magnus) where you are in arable land. Nothing the Mongols, who knew deserts such as the Gobi and the Takla Makan very well, couldn't handle.
The key was the Mongol's mobilitiy. By keeping a string of saddled horses moving, only sitting on one of them but being able to transfer from horse to horse while the horses are moving, Mongols were able to travel 70 miles a day. This was unheard of for any other army, (10 miles a day was more usual) and made it possible for Mongols to go from oasis to oasis very easily. And in the Mahgreb there is plenty of grazing land between the cutivated Algerian and Moroccan coastal regions and the Sahara. Plus Spain would beckon just across the Straits of Gibraltar, giving Hulagu's Mongols a second bite at the European apple.
So yes, there would be very little to stop the Mongols from going all the way to the Atlantic, if they defeated the Mamluks. Or to the Malian Empire across the Sahara, since the Western route across the Sahara where the Almoraivds came from goes mostly through grazing land all the way to the Senegal River with only a brief stretch of true desert--easy for the Mongols. And steppe land close to Western Europe would be highly attractive to Mongol conquerors.
Yes, it is likely that they might have adopted Islam to gain the respect of their subjecs the way they did in Persia and Turkish Central Asia. And in doing so, they might have brought Islam to France, Germany and Italy.
Could be a very interesting TL.
 

Deleted member 67076

There's a general belief that this would have been a tremendous blow to Islam on the whole, but this has to be taken within a with a pinch of salt. It is possible however that cities like Cairo and (if they go further) Marrakech will be set alight like Baghdad.
If they do reach Morocco they will certainly go for the rich lands of Al-Andalus. Which if iirc is either under the Almohads or the second or third Taifa period, so will be generally easy pickings.
That would be ironic to be defeated in the same way you rose to power.

Spain seems a bit too much IMO.

Still, should they conquer all the way to Morocco, do you think the Mongols would conduct raids in Iberia or attempt to outright conquer the region?
 
That would be ironic to be defeated in the same way you rose to power.

Spain seems a bit too much IMO.

Still, should they conquer all the way to Morocco, do you think the Mongols would conduct raids in Iberia or attempt to outright conquer the region?

It depends on how the Local rulers deal with the Mongols. If they show disrespect, expect some sort of attack. But if these Mongols have already converted Islam, they might be seen as liberators and even invited to invade like the Almoravids before them.
 

katchen

Banned
Try keeping Ogadei alive for 3-5 more years than OTL. That will give Batu and Subotai the window of opportunity they need to conquer the rest of Europe.
 
What would be the effects of this in the long term? Would it be a big blow to North Africa?


I might be wrong but didn't some Khans order the destruction of states/groups despite common sense saying its not worth it? Like say if the Khans ambassadors were killed because a local warlord was being a dick?

The most notorious example of this historically would probably be the Khwarezim, but destroying the Khwarezim was very much worth it, since it lay directly in the Mongols' path and was very rich besides (well, conquering them. Utterly erasing it was overdoing it).
 

Deleted member 67076

Try keeping Ogadei alive for 3-5 more years than OTL. That will give Batu and Subotai the window of opportunity they need to conquer the rest of Europe.
What PODs are required for that?
 

Seraphiel

Banned
Id say Egypt is actually very plausible IF the Mongols defeat the Egyptians at Ayn Jalut. But considering the fact that Egypt isnt exactly horseland Id say the Mongols would probably not extend further, though if they really tried Id say they could have.

Now what I find interesting is what would happen to Islamic Egypt when the Nestorian Mingol Kitbuqa (commander of the Mongols at Ayn Jalut) rules the place..
 

Deleted member 67076

Id say Egypt is actually very plausible IF the Mongols defeat the Egyptians at Ayn Jalut. But considering the fact that Egypt isnt exactly horseland Id say the Mongols would probably not extend further, though if they really tried Id say they could have.

Now what I find interesting is what would happen to Islamic Egypt when the Nestorian Mingol Kitbuqa (commander of the Mongols at Ayn Jalut) rules the place..
Better relations with the Christian states?
 
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