Plausibility check: United Italy in 1815

[CarloGoldoni]

So, here's my idea: in 1808 when Joseph Bonaparte is appointed King of Spain the Kingdom of Naples is not given to Murat, but instead merged with the Kingdom of Italy. OTL the King of Italy was Napoleon, but Eugène de Beauharnais, Napoleon's stepson, was the viceroy and, until the birth of an hypotetical second children of Napoleon, the heir to the italian throne, so ITTL seeing his kingdom expanding effortlessly he starts having fancy idea about the rest of Italy.
History is affected in minor ways but Spain is still a disaster and Russia a resounding defeat, when is clear that Napoleon has lost Eugene decides that he doesn't want to be on the losing side and join the sixth coalition occupying Tuscany and Rome. OTL he tried to put up resistance against the invading austrian, that ITTL reach Turin virtually unopposed. Napoleon is probably defeated earlier (the betrayal of Beauharnais convinces many of Napoleon not-so-loyal allies to switch side, this might also butterfly away the annexation of most of Saxony by Prussia).

Now it's time for the Congress of Vienna and Eugene decides to go personally, there he makes a good impression. At this point, ignoring possible butterflies, Austria still wants to give up the Netherlands, gain territories closer to Vienna and block a possible invasion from the south ence OTL Lombardy-Venetia was created, this might still happen ITTL, maybe Beauharnais manages to retain Milan. but probably not. As showed OTL with Bernadotte the great powers at Vienna didn't necessarly oppose the creation of a polity that didn't exist before the revolutionary war and didn't mind one of Napoleon's folk to lead it.
Leaving the Kingdom of Naples to Italy isn't a problem (they didn't have a problem with leaving it to Muarta OTL), the papacy wouldn't be a big deal either (the borders drawn at Vienna showed little regard to religion, which mean it wasn't their biggest concern, apart from Austria no one of the four great power were catholic, Austria itself feared OTL that the papacy may have become a spanish-alligned state. Also they didn't show any interest in restoring the various theocratic states of the HRE. It must be noted though that some of this points may be subjected to butterflies).
The various statelets that had existed in Italy wouldn't be restored, however we must consider what happens to Piedmont and Tuscany. Piedmont is restored to the house of Savoy as OTL, enlarged as OTL with Genoa and maybe Lucca. Tuscany would be left to Beauharnais, since it is being occupied by Italian troops, which probably means that Ferdinand III keeps Würzburg, so it also possible that Dalberg keeps the Granduchy of Frankfurt, or at least Aschaffenburg.

The capital of this Kingdom of Italy probably wouldn't be Milan (even if they manage to keep it: too periferical and surrounded by foreign states) so the three possible candidates are: Rome and Naples. Both have the advantage of being fairly central and developed city that had already been capitals. I'd say Rome is the most probable because of its long history of being the capital of the Roman Empire and then the Papacy (and Napoleon had also recently done some very nice renovations in the Quirinal Palace...), but Naples as capital is also an interesting not-often-seen possibility. In this later scenario the Royal Palace of Caserta may be built according to the original more lavish (and expensive) project. Eugène de Beauharnais OTL died in 1824 relatively young (43 years old) due to a stroke, which could be butterfly away (I'm no physician though and could be spectacularly wrong). His issues were all born after the POD so we can't know how his successors might look like.

The existence of this peninsula-spanning state would completely alter the makeup of european politics and so I won't make further predictions, still what do you think could probably happen as a result? Do you think such a polity existing is even plausible?



P.s. This is my first post, I might have done something wrong, in the event I apologize beforehand.

 

[Archduke]

Florence is also a possible capital for this kingdom.

 

[Erzherzog_Karl]

To make your post more readable, maybe use some paragraphs. So it looks less like a blob or wall of text.

I see no possibility for the Habsburg to accept Tuscany, a territory which was taken from their family member, to be given away. Ferdinand III. will be restored to his throne. You have to remember that Murat was not unopposed in his position in Naples. Even before he once more jumped onto Napoleon's side he faced opposition and his position at the Vienna Congress got worse and worse. The United Kingdom totally opposed his continued reign. I cannot see Habsburg accepting Beaurharnais retaining so much land that was formerly held by their family members and not retain some land for their sacrificed daughter. Likewise it is utterly unbelievable for the pope to relinquish his claim towards the Vatican and Rome. Even the later on unified Italy was not recognized by the Pope for a long time.

Far more likely that Beauharnais would follow the example of OTL Murat, he sees his position get worse and worse at the Vienna Congress and jumps ship to Napoleon to retain power. Then lose it all. At best he could maybe retain a small holding, but not something as substantial as you propose.

For German territory, it is utterly impossible for Dalberg to retain anything. He has no supporters, no great local support or troops to provide. Considering the incredible uncomfortable situation the King of Saxony suffered with being literally under the direct oversight of Napoleon, it is unlikely for him to change sides early on.

Overall, the Great Powers allowed others to get things which did not hurt their interests, but the moment their interests were at play, nothing was more important. There is a reason it nearly came to war over the fate of Saxony. While the Congress allowed all people to voice their opinion, the decision were made by the Great Powers. And I cannot see Austria backing down in this matter. I could actually see such a scenario allowing for a deal made with Prussia that allows them to take all of Saxony in exchange for support for them getting all their lands in Italy.

 

[CarloGoldoni]

I see no possibility for the Habsburg to accept Tuscany, a territory which was taken from their family member, to be given away.

But they had already accepted it, that's way the Electorate of Salzburg and later wurzburg were created in the first place. Though Wurzburg is quite small compared to Tuscany, so it might be expanded maybe to include the Granduchy of Frankfurt? Or some slices of Franconia?
Either way they were not opposed to the idea of one of their family member receiving some other statelet to govern in order to compensate a lost one, after all that's how they got Tuscany in the first place.

and not retain some land for their sacrificed daughter

Well, she could just go somewhere else. There was no special link between Marie Louise and Parma. Off the top of my head, they could give her the principality of neuchatel, with a similar deal to the one with which she got Parma OTL.

For German territory, it is utterly impossible for Dalberg to retain anything. He has no supporters, no great local support or troops to provide.

Point taken.

Likewise it is utterly unbelievable for the pope to relinquish his claim towards the Vatican and Rome. Even the later on unified Italy was not recognized by the Pope for a long time.

But even if he did not, Beauarnais would still have his troop stationed in Rome. Remember, at this time the pope is imprisoned outside of Rome. Pius VII didn't really mind much when he was deposed OTL, it is not that improbable that he would gladly return to Rome if church property isn't touched and the concordat of 1801 is still in place.

The United Kingdom totally opposed his continued reign.

Why was this so? I ask genuinely.


However I think there is also another big problem, the U.K. would want a country with so much coastline to potentially trethen their naval superiority in the Mediterranean sea. And Austria wouldn't want such a big polity just south of their border either, expecially if it's a nation state that stare greedily at their italian-speaking land, nationalism was on the rise after all, how much the great powers at Vienna would realize that is another matter however.

There is a reason it nearly came to war over the fate of Saxony.

That gave me an idea: what if it really came down to war. Italy-Prussia-Russia vs Austria-France. Neither Prussia nor Russia have their interest trethened by the existence of an Italian state and indeed it would be an helpfull ally.
Would Britain intervene? The opposition to war in England was strong and seeing peace negotiation fail and Europe going to war once again over some barren land (from their perspective) in Eastern Europe might do the trick and leave the U.K. out of the war. I'm not sure about who would have the upper hand, the situation is quite different than OTL. Still it would be an interesting war to be sure...


P.s. Thank for your reply.

 

[Erzherzog_Karl]

But they had already accepted it, that's way the Electorate of Salzburg and later wurzburg were created in the first place. Though Wurzburg is quite small compared to Tuscany, so it might be expanded maybe to include the Granduchy of Frankfurt? Or some slices of Franconia?
Either way they were not opposed to the idea of one of their family member receiving some other statelet to govern in order to compensate a lost one, after all that's how they got Tuscany in the first place.

I think you are wrong there. Ferdinand III was restored as the Grand Duke of Tuscany in the final closure document of the Vienna Congress. They accepted it after they got crushed by Napoleon, there is a difference to it when they are on the winning side and one of its key decision makers.

Well, she could just go somewhere else. There was no special link between Marie Louise and Parma. Off the top of my head, they could give her the principality of neuchatel, with a similar deal to the one with which she got Parma OTL.

Neuchatel was formerly territory of Prussia. Therefore, no way in hell that is going to happen. Italy was the prime territory for Habsburg to remake however they wanted. Germany had opposing interests, most of all with all the legitimate former rulers who were mostly in power or the other German powers.

But even if he did not, Beauarnais would still have his troop stationed in Rome. Remember, at this time the pope is imprisoned outside of Rome. Pius VII didn't really mind much when he was deposed OTL, it is not that improbable that he would gladly return to Rome if church property isn't touched and the concordat of 1801 is still in place.

...I would like a source on Pius VII not really minding to be deposed. I have read about the Vienna Congress and the representatives of the Vatican were massively agitating for a restoration.

Regarding the Italian troops, it is stretching things to call them Italian troops. The leadership was mostly or totally French and the normal people were not inclined towards the French. There were multiple small uprisings and the aftermath and death toll of the Russian campaign was felt even there. At this point in time, no one liked the French. All had suffered under their rule, with their massively exploitative economic measures that singularly helped France at the cost of all its vassal states. Therefore, you have the problem of Napoleonic loyalists opposing any move of Beaurharnais against their Emperor and the dislike of the population and troops against this foreign ruler. Overall, not a strong position to negotiate a completely unfavorable deal for the other side.

Why was this so? I ask genuinely.


However I think there is also another big problem, the U.K. would want a country with so much coastline to potentially trethen their naval superiority in the Mediterranean sea. And Austria wouldn't want such a big polity just south of their border either, expecially if it's a nation state that stare greedily at their italian-speaking land, nationalism was on the rise after all, how much the great powers at Vienna would realize that is another matter however.

They opposed the deposing of the Bourbons there and had helped them since that incident. Why would they leave their long-time ally in the rain? For them, there is absolutely no advantage in having a French ruler in such a vital region.

Murat tried to play towards nationalistic feelings, but he was not Italian. And the people in Naples did not like him. The whole time of the French reign in this region had massive problems in the hinterlands. Here the guerilla attacks started before the more famous ones in Spain happened. The Calabrian Rebellion is quite the interesting topic. Overall, a French ruler is just not the figure a national group could rally behind. After looting a land for over a decade, there is little left of any positive feelings towards you that may have been there in the beginning. The Revolutionary French as well as the Napoleonic Empire was not a generous or benevolent ruler, but utterly exploitative to its subjects. On that basis, you cannot build a strong foundation.

That gave me an idea: what if it really came down to war. Italy-Prussia-Russia vs Austria-France. Neither Prussia nor Russia have their interest trethened by the existence of an Italian state and indeed it would be an helpfull ally.
Would Britain intervene? The opposition to war in England was strong and seeing peace negotiation fail and Europe going to war once again over some barren land (from their perspective) in Eastern Europe might do the trick and leave the U.K. out of the war. I'm not sure about who would have the upper hand, the situation is quite different than OTL. Still it would be an interesting war to be sure...

Austria, France and GB were bluffing. If Prussia and Russia had gone for it, they would have had to back down. Castlereagh had no actual backing to promise support for a war against Prussia or Russia. France was literally on the ground and I can see no way that the newly restored king would be able to rally France for a war to keep a distant family member of him on a throne. Lastly, Austria was in a precarious situation and had to be extremely careful with the few troops they had. Therefore, the chance for actual war would be quite low in my opinion. If Russia and Prussia go for it, the others would have backed down.

It is the problem if Beauharnais would be able to actually call upon Italy in any kind of substantial way. Here is where I would see another issue. Like stated above, he was not seen as an Italian but a foreign ruler. Then his support for his position is based upon his relationship to Napoleon. While he is married to the daughter of the Bavarian King, I cannot see them going out of their way to threaten their own position to help him out.

 

[CarloGoldoni]

-They accepted it after they got crushed by Napoleon, there is a difference to it when they are on the winning side and one of its key decision makers.

Yes, but, as I said, they had already agreed to a similar deal when they got Tuscany in the first place. Considering how easily Napoleon and Beauharnais have conquered it ITTL there's also a chance the austrian wouldn't want it, that's the reason why the gave up the Netherlands OTL (the idea had been floating around for a while though). Remember that ITTL Beaurnais isn't a non-factor and he is also on the winning side having defected Napoleon early (This also mean that he probably got some kind of deal about retaining at least part of his kingdom).


-Neuchatel was formerly territory of Prussia. Therefore, no way in hell that is going to happen.

East Frisia was also a prussian territory, but it was assigned to the Kingdom of Hanover nonetheless. One could question why Prussia would care so much about an indefensible statelet at the border with France of all countries, well they did make a fuss OTL about losing it but remember that I specified with a similar deal to the one with which she got Parma OTL, i.e. for her lifetime before being reverted to Prussia. So again, not really a problem, if Austria really want to carve out a new state for Marie Louise they have plenty of possibilities and it's not like there is some kind of astral conjection that forces them to do so.

- Italy was the prime territory for Habsburg to remake however they wanted. Germany had opposing interests, most of all with all the legitimate former rulers who were mostly in power or the other German powers.

Where you the one arguing that Britain wouldn't accept Murat as king of Naples? Clearly the Austrian couldn't do whatever they wanted in Italy, expecially OTL where they aren't occupying northern Italy and there is actually another not insignificant player there who is willing to concede, unless Beaurnais goes mad, but also determined to keep his kingdom.

-I have read about the Vienna Congress and the representatives of the Vatican were massively agitating for a restoration.

Yes, no one is saying they weren't. But OTL no one was seriously reclamating their territory, the ecclessiastical states in Germany were also agitating for restoration, but none of them was restored. With Rome controlled by Beaurnais, the papal delegates (the one that are allowed to reach Vienna anyways, that's how the Prussian got rid of the king of Saxony OTL...) will be in a very weak position.

-Regarding the Italian troops, it is stretching things to call them Italian troops. The leadership was mostly or totally French and the normal people were not inclined towards the French. There were multiple small uprisings and the aftermath and death toll of the Russian campaign was felt even there. At this point in time, no one liked the French.
-Murat tried to play towards nationalistic feelings, but he was not Italian.
-It is the problem if Beauharnais would be able to actually call upon Italy in any kind of substantial way. Here is where I would see another issue. Like stated above, he was not seen as an Italian but a foreign ruler.

The POD is before the Russian campaign, so Beaurnais could have committed way less of his troop and in fact could have never gone to Russia himself. Beauharnais ITTL is fighting against the french, and he was italian as much as Napoleon was french. He would probably be resented by nationalist in Lombardy and Venice, but could also garner support from the one he is "liberating" (or at least moving from french to italian rule). Also after being given Naples, there is no reason to think italian nationalism wouldn't be different, for one there would be people actually supporting Beaurnais as the only realistic sponsor of italian unification (as happened to Piedmont OTL), thing he would be actually supporting ITTL since he starts having ambition over the french half of the peninsula.
Regarding the troops, I'm not saying they would unilaterally support Beaurnais, but they're people who are ordered to die, I'm sure they can swallow being ruled by a king they don't agree 100% with.
The Kingdom of Italy provided 200 000 soldiers to Napoleon OTL, Naples had at least another 47 000 in 1814. They wouldn't be all alive by the end of the Napoleonic wars obviously (In fact they would have suffered a lot of casualties even without losing 30 000 men in Russia), but the Austrian army itself at his peak was ~300 000 men (about a third less by 1814, subject to butterflies though), so Italy wouldn't just be a passer-by of the war. Consider that OTL Beaurnais wasn't just crushed by the Austrian at the Mincio river, while being in a far weaker position than OTL.

-After looting a land for over a decade, there is little left of any positive feelings towards you that may have been there in the beginning. The Revolutionary French as well as the Napoleonic Empire was not a generous or benevolent ruler, but utterly exploitative to its subjects. On that basis, you cannot build a strong foundation.

I think you are a bit exagerating the situation in Italy, there was surely opposition to the french rule. But depicting the french as just pillaging Italy is incorrect, there were many advancements both on a legal and social level. There was some degree of support for France and its puppet states, not universal sure, but still common.



Overall, I think that there would be opposition to leaving Italy south of the Po to Beaurnais, but there would also be the fact that there would also be a lot of pressure to find a compromise with Beauharnais, as with all the other problem to be solved at the Vienna congress. Also Beauharnais wasn't a pariah among european nobility, he intermarried with Bavarian Royalty and his son was considered first as King of Belgium and then as husband to the queen of Portugal (which he was in the end), his first daughter was queen of sweden, the second one princesses of Hoenzollern-Hechingen, the third one was empress of Brazil. Obviously these marriages didn't yet happen, but they show that Beauharnais had the social capital so important for diplomacy at Vienna, he could have kept his kingdom, cut down in size surely, but he could still have kept it.

 

[renard_]

hi, I'm new to the forum, the possibility of uniting Italy in 1815 could exist if an Italian state already strong since before the revolution, managed to convince the main European powers regarding the partial (or complete) maintenance of the Napoleonic kingdom of Italy, if any of you are interested in this TL myself I am working on this idea, soon I will post a TL about it here on the forum

 

[Aluma]

This is my first post, I might have done something wrong, in the event I apologize beforehand.

This is a very impressive post, even more so being your first one here
You not only had a very detailed POD but showed how the ramifications could lead to your desired result, to the point that if you slapped a photo in each paragraph and posted them separately you'd already have a nice one-page TL here
Really, pretty good job

 

[CarloGoldoni]

This is a very impressive post, even more so being your first one here
You not only had a very detailed POD but showed how the ramifications could lead to your desired result, to the point that if you slapped a photo in each paragraph and posted them separately you'd already have a nice one-page TL here
Really, pretty good job

Thank you! (Admittedly, altough this was my first post I have been lurking on this site for a couple of years)

 

[Aluma]

Thank you! (Admittedly, altough this was my first post I have been lurking on this site for a couple of years)

One of us!
One of us!

 

[Simreeve]

East Frisia was also a prussian territory, but it was assigned to the Kingdom of Hanover nonetheless. One could question why Prussia would care so much about an indefensible statelet at the border with France of all countries, well they did make a fuss OTL about losing it

That was part of a more complex exchange: Prussia transferred East Frisia to Hanover, Hanover transferred Saxe-Lauenburg to Holstein (which was ruled by the King of Denmark), Denmark had Norway taken away by Sweden, and Sweden transferred its last remaining slice of Pomerania to Prussia.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I don't think Austria budges on Lombardy-Venetia. They might give up Lombardy but would probably hold on to Venetia. They wanted Lombardy-Venetia for two reasons - one, to act as a buffer to Austria proper as you stated and two, to get more tax and trade revenue. Can't see them giving that up witout a major compensation elsewhere.

Great POD though, really got me thinking.

 

[Evil Crusader]

A very good effort, and welcome to active posting!
I think the polity has decent chances of existing, I'm just a bit skeptical they'd even want to override the Pope. The Papal Question proved toxic half a century later, for a stronger state, and may well spell huge trouble for the newly founded Kingdom.
And of course, there'd be huge push for nationalism afterwards.

 

[funnyhat]

What if this state takes the opposite approach of the OTL Italy and agrees to leave the Papal States to the Pope if he will support its conquest of the rest of the peninsula?

 

[Wendell]

I would advise a POD which results in a different peace conference that together could get you something like what you want. Kill Napoleon at Aspern Essling or at Regensburg. At the time, Eugene is in the field with an army under his command. Perhaps he pursues a separate peace with Vienna in the wake of his stepfather's demise and is able to consolidate (northern) Italy while the (intended) succession of Joseph, then in Spain, to the imperial French throne goes sideways.