Plausibility check: New England leaving the USA after a much more disasterous war of 1812?

[ParasaurEwan]

I was starting a timeline, in which the USA gets hammered in the war of 1812, due to Alexander Hamilton surviving the duel which killed him OTL and James Madison deciding that he didn't want to become President. In a case where Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia all fall, and James Monroe was captured, would the emboldened Hartford convention choose to secede?

edit for clarity: In this TL Monroe is the 1808 President instead of Madison, explaining why the USA does worse.

 

[GullibleCynic]

It seems likely that a plausible story could be told where that happens. Another factor that could be useful might be Andrew Jackson dying in New Orleans.

As a storyteller your job would be to ensure that the right people encounter each other at the right time having heard the right news all in the right order. As an event I don't think new England seceding is so unlikely that the story would have thread some impossible needle. But you would still have some work to do. It seems like you have a few reasonable steps laid out already

 

[The Gunslinger]

It's not so much about America doing worse, though that probably exacerbates the New Englanders secessionist sentiments, as it is about how long the war lasts. New England was being hammered economically about the conflict (the whole nation was, but New England felt it the most because of its bigger maritime economy) and they were incensed about being ruined in a war they never wanted to fight. The longer the war lasts, the stronger the urge to secede becomes. America losing the war sucks, but it ends the blockade which evaporates the main reason for secession.