Operation Unthinkable goes ahead - how much longer does the war last?

[CaesarKhan]

I have been looking into a number of threads about Operation Unthinkable as the idea has quite taken me, though something barely anyone seems to touch on is just how long a war between the Western allies and the Soviet Union in 1945 would last... Regardless of whether people believe it would be a US-UK or USSR victory, there doesn't seem to be much debate over how quick/protracted it would be.

Now, obviously there are caveats that could change things somewhat, like if whether the west goes ahead with the idea to rearm German POW's to fight on their side, or whether a land invasion of Japan becomes necessary as they continue to fight on due to seeing victory or peace as more likely, but regardless I don't see these changing the course of the war too drastically.

What are your thoughts? Personally my mind goes to thinking autumn 1948, without much deep contemplation

 

[prester.john208]

I have been looking into a number of threads about Operation Unthinkable as the idea has quite taken me, though something barely anyone seems to touch on is just how long a war between the Western allies and the Soviet Union in 1945 would last... Regardless of whether people believe it would be a US-UK or USSR victory, there doesn't seem to be much debate over how quick/protracted it would be.

Now, obviously there are caveats that could change things somewhat, like if whether the west goes ahead with the idea to rearm German POW's to fight on their side, or whether a land invasion of Japan becomes necessary as they continue to fight on due to seeing victory or peace as more likely, but regardless I don't see these changing the course of the war too drastically.

What are your thoughts? Personally my mind goes to thinking autumn 1948, without much deep contemplation

They'd have to make it look like the USSR started the war or the troops might object. No invasion of Japan. B29s pounding Baku and Maikop. War in Iran between the British and USSR. Does Turkey enter the war? US and British short on troops. Both struggled to find replacements in 1944-45.

1948-49 depending on how China and Japan play out.

 

[Histor32]

The USA has the bomb and a monopoly on said device ..
While not a total game changer, it will make things ugly for the soviets. I also think If the west turns on and goes after the soviets for insert whatever reason, that reason will be sold in everyway to the public.

Japan isn't getting ground invaded.

If unthinkable starts in 45, does it start after Germany is crushed or does the war just keep going.

There isn't much left in central and eastern Europe but rubble. Soviets are massively over stretched and it's new conquests that it doesn't plan to let go may also turn on them.


I think the ussr falls in under a year, especially after August and the bomb comes to fruition because, it will be used

 

[Sasza]

The war ends in the spring of 1946.

The Red Army had no reserves and the allied units would either betray it (Poles) or remain passive (Romanians and Tito). There is no need to arm the Germans because the forces that the Allies have are enough.

After cutting supplies of raw materials, food and parts, the USSR collapsed by the winter of 1945.

 

[Histor32]

The war ends in the spring of 1946.

The Red Army had no reserves and the allied units would either betray it (Poles) or remain passive (Romanians and Tito). There is no need to arm the Germans because the forces that the Allies have are enough.

After cutting supplies of raw materials, food and parts, the USSR collapsed by the winter of 1945.

Oh we would arm the Germans, and sell it too. We did the same with the soviets in 41 and uncle Joe.

That said, Germany wouldn't be getting anything much out of the deal except possibly keeping Prussia. If the Polish, Czech and Hungarians turn, so will the Baltics of course and Finland will jump in.
Eastern Europe is spared 45 years of Soviet oppression, but gets hopefully and that could be a big if, gets western support and aid to rebuild and become functional members.

Nazi German leadership still gets tried and hung, the Soviet Union and Stalin are discredited. States like Belarus and Ukraine achieve independence earlier.

But yeah, while no one wanted to have the war ongoing, the soviets are going to be hard pressed to keep in the game.

This also means potentially north Korea doesn't exist or get a chance to happen and potentially more support is given to stop the Chinese PLA.

Question would be what would trigger such a break between the soviets and the west at the customer victory. Stalin wasn't stupid and to think of driving for the rhine was already well known to be an absolute no no.

Patton does something stupid?

The thought of the west just ripping up agreements and going while hog for Moscow just doesn't roll well with how things happened as is.


Potentially leaked plans of what the soviets wanted to do to eastern Europe? Mass suppression in Poland or some other place goes hot?

The soviets paid a very awful price for siding with the Germans and then having to fight the German Reich at it's Apex. They were absolutely tired by may of 45, so what ever triggers the war should be undeniable and the west will hoist it up the flag pole like the Maine in Havana.

Soviets refuse to join the United nations, form alternate based in Moscow, soviets invade Iran or again prove that they have 0 intention very early on about liberation and freedom for the peoples of eastern Europe.

I'm just trying to think of a good enough trigger that makes the west go all in, could be small and then just blow up. Soviets want all of Berlin and Austria? Arrive at the borders and just park the tanks and start shooting those who try to cross either way?

 

[Leonidas]

Wouldn’t happen, or if it somehow did the idiots on both sides who started shooting would be forced to resign or court-martialed. So with that in mind, let’s say a couple of hours to a week.

 

[Garrison]

This is a case where the name of a military operation isn't designed to obfuscate, it really was a case of 'thinking the unthinkable' and was on a par with US plans to invade Canada in terms of likelihood. Unless it was clear that the Soviets weren't stopping at Berlin, unlikely given the state of the Red Army in 1945, the Allies are not going carry it out. The truth is by the time Germany surrenders everyone wants and needs peace.

 

[prester.john208]

The war ends in the spring of 1946.

The Red Army had no reserves and the allied units would either betray it (Poles) or remain passive (Romanians and Tito). There is no need to arm the Germans because the forces that the Allies have are enough.

After cutting supplies of raw materials, food and parts, the USSR collapsed by the winter of 1945.

The US supplies them with refined aviation gas equivalent to 57 percent of what the Soviet Union produced. Much of the American fuel was added to lower-grade Soviet fuel to produce the high-octane fuel needed by modern military aircraft.

 

[prester.john208]

The Wallies have in Western Europe:

Three Army Groups with
5 Airborne Divisions
2 Alpine Divisions
25 Armored Divisions
61 Infantry Divisions
93 Total

In Italy
1 Army Group with
1 Alpine Division
4 Armored Divisions
17 Infantry Divisions
22 Total

In Pacific & Hawaii (US Only)
2 Armies with
1 Airborne Divisions
1 Cavalry Divisions
19 Infantry Divisions
6 Marine Divisions
26 Total

Troops in Middle East, India, Burma and Australian Theaters not included.

 

[Sasza]

The Wallies have in Western Europe:

Three Army Groups with
5 Airborne Divisions
2 Alpine Divisions
25 Armored Divisions
61 Infantry Divisions
93 Total

In Italy
1 Army Group with
1 Alpine Division
4 Armored Divisions
17 Infantry Divisions
22 Total

In Pacific & Hawaii (US Only)
2 Armies with
1 Airborne Divisions
1 Cavalry Divisions
19 Infantry Divisions
6 Marine Divisions
26 Total

Troops in Middle East, India, Burma and Australian Theaters not included.

Additionally, the strength of Soviet divisions is between 15-30%. Only Polish and Romanian divisions have a strength of 60-70%. Japan would capitulate by the fall of 1945 anyway. By the spring of 1946 the Red Army will either be destroyed between the Elbe and the Bug, or a cauldron will be created when the Allies start landing on the beaches of Pomerania and attacking from the south

 

[jamesownz]

If the Allies drop the bomb quickly Stalin probably sues for peace

 

[Gar48]

Italy and France would collapse in civil war, considering how many socialist/communist partisans were still active in boh countries

Also the US had the monopoly of the atomic bomb but it would still take months to build more than two bombs

Unlike Japan, Moscow also has functional air defences to shoot down US planes carrying the nukes.

This without counting how Western voters were tired of the war, while the Soviets were in full "Fight or die" mode since 1941

 

[French Frog]

How many bombs have the Americans actually got though ?

 

[lionhead]

How many bombs have the Americans actually got though ?

IIRC after fat man and little bot they aimed at having 3 additional bombs by the spring of 1946. From then on production speed only goes up i suppose.

 

[prester.john208]

Italy and France would collapse in civil war, considering how many socialist/communist partisans were still active in boh countries

Need effective propaganda on Stalin starting the war. Wallies do have lists of the reds since they worked with the allies. Western public was fed a lot of uncle Joe PR during the war.

Also the US had the monopoly of the atomic bomb but it would still take months to build more than two bombs

Unlike Japan, Moscow also has functional air defences to shoot down US planes carrying the nukes.

That's not happening early on in a war, most planes needed in Germany and Central Europe.

This without counting how Western voters were tired of the war, while the Soviets were in full "Fight or die" mode since 1941

Aviation fuel, food and spare parts for trucks/radios an issue for the USSR. The heavy bombers would likely target rails, oil and army units. The Wallies should have air superiority after a short time.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

A few months, at most. In the worst case, the Soviets crush the attack and push it back over the Rhine. In a more middling case, we have an operational stalemate, with neither side achieving significant gains but still getting a lot of soldiers killed for no meaningful military outcome. Either of these would be so massively unpopular that the Western Allies leadership would never politically survive.

Likewise, even if the Allies do defeat the Soviets in Germany and advance to the conceived Danzig-Breslau line they'll have no desire to carry on beyond Eastern Europe into the Soviet Union proper. There would just be no will for it, and it would probably be seen as a good place to stop. It’s worth re-emphasizing how even the best case outcome for Unthinkable does not achieve its stated objective, as the heart of Poland lies east of that line and thus would remain in Soviet hands.

The usual assertions that the Soviets were “out of reserves” and still dependent lend-lease at this point tend to be more wishful thinking not substantiated by history and actual strategic assessment.

That's not happening early on in a war, most planes needed in Germany and Central Europe.

Nah, the Soviets had a substantial air defense force of 1,200 planes along the Western Russian route to Moscow alone. They’ll be able to mount intercepts.

The Wallies should have air superiority after a short time.

Also wishful thinking. It took the allies two years of relentless operations on the Eastern, Western and Mediterranean fronts to grind down the Luftwaffe to the point where they could maintain air superiority over it. And the Red Air Force of 1945 is in a far superior position to that of the Luftwaffe in 1942.

 

[prester.john208]

A few months, at most. In the worst case, the Soviets crush the attack and push it back over the Rhine. In a more middling case, we have an operational stalemate, with neither side achieving significant gains but still getting a lot of soldiers killed for no meaningful military outcome. Either of these would be so massively unpopular that the Western Allies leadership would never politically survive.

Agreed propaganda would be decisive. West messed up making uncle Joe a hero.

Likewise, even if the Allies do defeat the Soviets in Germany and advance to the conceived Danzig-Breslau line they'll have no desire to carry on beyond Eastern Europe into the Soviet Union proper. There would just be no will for it, and it would probably be seen as a good place to stop. It’s worth re-emphasizing how even the best case outcome for Unthinkable does not achieve its stated objective, as the heart of Poland lies east of that line and thus would remain in Soviet hands.

The war makes little sense.

The usual assertions that the Soviets were “out of reserves” and still dependent lend-lease at this point tend to be more wishful thinking not substantiated by history than actual strategic assessment.

Food, Trucks, jeeps and fuel.

Nah, the Soviets had a substantial air defense force of 1,200 planes along the Western Russian route to Moscow alone. They’ll be able to mount intercepts.

They're not bombing Moscow. It's the oil fields and refineries. Plus they lose most of their high octane gas. B29s hitting those targets.

Also wishful thinking. It took the allies two years of relentless operations on the Eastern, Western and Mediterranean fronts to grind down the Luftwaffe to the point where they could maintain air superiority over it. And the Red Air Force of 1945 is in a far superior position to that of the Luftwaffe in 1942.

As are the Wallies air forces. Especially if its an unanticipated first strike. Given Soviet penetration of the West that's unlikely.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

They're not bombing Moscow. It's the oil fields and refineries. Plus they lose most of their high octane gas. B29s hitting those.

No they don’t? In the short-term, they have their existing stockpiles. Even if by some miracle the war drags out so that the longer-term matters, they have additional capacity they are already building up (see below) that can meet their needs.

And the refineries the Soviets built to fill their high-octane gas needs - as well as synthetic oil production - in ‘45 on the back of machinery from captured German oil and synthetic refining are out in Siberia, where even the ‘29s can’t reach them even had the Anglo-Americans knew about them in the first place (they didn’t).

As are the Wallies air forces.

Sure. That means it’s gonna be a fight under air parity. The history of fights under conditions of strategic air parity tell us that the two air forces effectively cancel each other out, leaving it down to the ground forces to carry the day.

 

[Gar48]

Wallies do have lists of the reds since they worked with the allies.

Tuscany and a good chunk of Northern Italy were virtually ruled by Togliatti and his allies by 1945. I seriously doubt the US have lists with all the red partisans active at the time.

 

[ennobee]

Operation Unthinkable goes ahead - how much longer does the war last?

I have been looking into a number of threads about Operation Unthinkable as the idea has quite taken me, though something barely anyone seems to touch on is just how long a war between the Western allies and the Soviet Union in 1945 would last... Regardless of whether people believe it would be a US-UK or USSR victory, there doesn't seem to be much debate over how quick/protracted it would be......

Seeing that is is one of the plot elements of George Orwell's 1984 (and for those who don't know, the title is a reference to 1948, the year Orwell wrote it), the answer would be: forever.

If you take the book as a reflection on the state of the UK in 1948, Orwell saw that after spending 5 years fighting Germany and Japan with the help of the USSR, the UK was in 1948 on the brink of fighting the USSR and China with the help of Germany and Japan and mused that after five years of that they might be fighting China With the help of the USSR or the USSR with the help of China.

I agree with that and see an 'Operation Unthinkable' where the UK and the US fight the USSR, follower by an 'Operation Unimaginable' where the UK and the USSR fight the US and then an 'Operation Unfathomable' where China joins the fray.

The precedent has been set and so there's no stopping the war machines from all countries involved to just turn on the next army-former ally or not- after the current one has been defeated.