Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I think the USSR will be much weaker position postwar TTL. The allies will likely defeat Bulgaria and Turkey, liberate Yugoslavia. Axis Turkey means less materials for the Soviets overall from the WAllies and more fronts for them.
I don’t know about much weaker but likely a bit weaker depending on how allied campaigns end up going but we are very much talking relative here. A 9.3 million man battle hardened army in 1945 instead of 9.8 million man army is definitely weaker but not “weak” to the point that it is still them and the USA deciding what to do in post war Europe. To put in perspective the Soviet Army will even ITTL be about the same size as the immediate post war Greek population.

I think most interesting would be seeing Greece ITTL be to the west what Yugoslavia was to the East OTL; someone who identifies with a “bloc” but chooses not to get completely subsumed in it. Greece will be hurting post war and may prefer armed neutrality vs the USSR rather than a NATO equivalent. Perhaps with a side deal that the USSR will not provide any arms to a Turkish state as the quid pro quo. With that the USSR gets a neutral state in control of the straits while Greece’s primary geopolitical adversary will be cut out of arms from the 2 main blocks and will rely on locally produced or whatever scraps are made by smaller powers.
 
I think most interesting would be seeing Greece ITTL be to the west what Yugoslavia was to the East OTL; someone who identifies with a “bloc” but chooses not to get completely subsumed in it. Greece will be hurting post war and may prefer armed neutrality vs the USSR rather than a NATO equivalent. Perhaps with a side deal that the USSR will not provide any arms to a Turkish state as the quid pro quo. With that the USSR gets a neutral state in control of the straits while Greece’s primary geopolitical adversary will be cut out of arms from the 2 main blocks and will rely on locally produced or whatever scraps are made by smaller powers.
I don't think Greece will act like Yugoslavia ittl as the Soviets will try to undermine Greece any way it can, which means they're deep in NATO out of necessity. Greece can't afford to be neutral.

On the subject of Yugoslavia, is it in the Western camp as WWII ends? I'd like to see a more fedralised Yugoslavia and one that actually functions ittl.

Btw, what would be the situation of Israel ittl? Would Israel be more millitant as the politics in the Middle East would be more ambivalent with Israel ittl. I'd think Israel would at least have Sinai and Jordan as buffers for their country.
 
I think the USSR will be much weaker position postwar TTL. The allies will likely defeat Bulgaria and Turkey, liberate Yugoslavia. Axis Turkey means less materials for the Soviets overall from the WAllies and more fronts for them.
Careful here, since I wouldn't define the strength of the USSR based on having satellites in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia.
If the war is shorter and goes better for the USSR due to weaker Germans and more fronts through which to attacks. Millions of Soviet lives might be saved, 5 million fewer casualties alone would compound to maybe as many as 10M extra Soviet citizzens in TTL 1990. A larger population means more resources, more industry, more taxpayers and a strenghtened Russian/Slavic core.
 
Careful here, since I wouldn't define the strength of the USSR based on having satellites in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia.
If the war is shorter and goes better for the USSR due to weaker Germans and more fronts through which to attacks. Millions of Soviet lives might be saved, 5 million fewer casualties alone would compound to maybe as many as 10M extra Soviet citizzens in TTL 1990. A larger population means more resources, more industry, more taxpayers and a strenghtened Russian/Slavic core.
One could easily argue that the satellites were a net drain to the Soviet economy. Also while on the matter of the Soviets, number of men who served with the Germans from Caucasus:

Armenia: 25,000
Azerbaijan: 125,000
Georgia: 40,000
North Caucasus: 30,000 (may be included in the 125,000 figure)

Soo TTL scratch the better part of 65,000 men from the German side for I think obvious reasons, though on the other hand you may have increased numbers of Azeris and Muslims in general with Turkey in the war and the caliph around...
 
Part 78
Syria, June 27th, 1941

The 6th Australian division joined the fighting to the west of Aleppo. The Turkish-German advance had already slowed to a crawl but had not quite been stopped yet.

Parliament building, Athens, June 28th, 1941

Demetrios Glinos was hardly the usual run of the mill communist. A professor in the university of Athens, early correspondent of Dragoumis, architect of the educational reforms of the Liberal government in 1917, turned communist by 1930, Glinos was well respected and well connected. He had been elected in the senate in 1936, one of the 6 communists in the upper house. Now he concluded his speech to the general applause of both houses in the joint session. "This "new world order" is the order that the barbarians of Asia wanted to bring to this country, the Persians, the Huns, the Mongols of Tamerlane and Chengis Khan, the Turks of Mehmet. The some difference is that this time this "order" comes in conjunction with scientifically organized theft. The Greek people know this "new order" by its true name slavery. Blackest slavery, an pillage and barbarism and bashi-bazoukism. Forward! Every man and woman of Greece, steel your hands and your souls for the paramount struggle!"

"An excellent speech. Eight months too late." George Papandreou would only comment, to the snickers of the members of parliament that could here him but they still applauded. Three days ago the 6th plenary session of the Communist party had called for Greeks to fight with all means against the fascists in both occupied and free Greece.

Near Batman, Turkey, June 28th, 1941


A handful of parachutes opened into the night. Once on the ground the handful of SOE agents were quickly ushered away by Kurdish guerillas. So far the Kurdish rebellion had been negligible. Colonel T.E. Lawrence had had every intention of changing that...

Thessaloniki, June 29th, 1941

The Bulgarian tricolour was raised over the White Tower. Bulgaria had refused to join Barbarossa citing problems at home and the continuing threat from Greece. Germany and Italy had proven sympathetic but had demanded that if this was the case then the Bulgarian army should be committed to the Thessalian front. The Bulgarians had agreed, after all they could claim with a straight face that the majority of their army was tied down in occupation duties but had a price of their own...

Gorky, Soviet Union, June 30th, 1941

Polikarpov I-180s start rising to the air as two hundred Do-19s hit the city at dawn. With the Soviet air force having suffered grievously over the last week someone in the Luftwaffe had thought a day raid was relatively safe. The Do-19s had indeed caused quite a bit of damage but without escort over two dozen had been shot down by the defending Soviet fighters. Wever and Goring were quick to conclude that all future raids would be at night at least till the newer He-177 replaced the Dornier machine. With its four Jumo 211 engines the Heinkel was expected to be much faster.

Kars, Soviet Union, June 30th, 1941

Back in December 1937 Vladimir Triandafillov had been thrown into prison, supposedly as a Greek agent, more plausibly because he had claimed cavalry to be obsolete so was supposed to be on the side of marshal Tukhachevsky thus guilty by association. He had been ushered out of prison without explanation in the spring of 1940 and placed in command of the 45th Army in the Caucasus, a demotion compared to his former position but still much better than prison. He had spent the intervening 15 months thoroughly training his divisions. His fellow commanders of the 44th, 46th and 47th armies had not be as thorough but with nearly 900 tanks and over 1400 guns the Transcaucasus Front was nevertheless a fearsome war machine as it charged forward against the Turkish army.

Syria, July 3rd, 1941

The Turkish offensive in Syria came to a halt. The 2nd army had failed to take Aleppo but it had secured the entire length of the Baghdad railroad and captured, or liberated as far as the Turks were concerned, Antep, Urfa and Mardin. If reinforcements could be made available the offensive might resume. But at the moment every single unit that could be spared was being shipped east to hold back the Soviets. For now the gains made, particularly the railroad line should suffice, as soon as the railroad was repaired it would allow supplying the Iraqi front where the Germans, Turks and Iraqis had been able to stop the British advance from the south but had been themselves stopped right to the west of Habbaniya.

Madrid, July 6th, 1941

Since the start of the war with the Soviet Union, general Ochoa's regime had fallen to three mortal sins. First it had refused to declare war against the Soviet Union, then had refused the proposal to create volunteer units to fight the Soviets and last had even tried to crack down on Phalagists taking matters on their hands against obvious pro-Bolsheviks in the last couple of weeks and any opponent of the Phalange including Carlists was obviously pro-Bolshevik. This on top of Ochoa betraying the nationalist revolution for the past two years. Manuel Hedilla the head of the Phalange had made a last attempt to pressure Ochoa to declare war against the Soviet Union a few days ago only to fall flat. If Ochoa could not be persuaded by words, other means were necessary. Madrid woke up once more to the sound of gunfire as army units loyal to Emilio Mola and Juan Yague and Phalangist militias rose up in revolt...
 
Parliament building, Athens, June 28th, 1941

Demetrios Glinos was hardly the usual run of the mill communist. A professor in the university of Athens, early correspondent of Dragoumis, architect of the educational reforms of the Liberal government in 1917, turned communist by 1930, Glinos was well respected and well connected. He had been elected in the senate in 1936, one of the 6 communists in the upper house. Now he concluded his speech to the general applause of both houses in the joint session. "This "new world order" is the order that the barbarians of Asia wanted to bring to this country, the Persians, the Huns, the Mongols of Tamerlane and Chengis Khan, the Turks of Mehmet. The some difference is that this time this "order" comes in conjunction with scientifically organized theft. The Greek people know this "new order" by its true name slavery. Blackest slavery, an pillage and barbarism and bashi-bazoukism. Forward! Every man and woman of Greece, steel your hands and your souls for the paramount struggle!"

"An excellent speech. Eight months too late." George Papandreou would only comment, to the snickers of the members of parliament that could here him but they still applauded. Three days ago the 6th plenary session of the Communist party had called for Greeks to fight with all means against the fascists in both occupied and free Greece.
All of Greece is more united against the belligerents now. That’s great news for the Greeks as they should be defending in Thermopylae still. How successful would guerilla tactics be in Greece?
Near Batman, Turkey, June 28th, 1941

A handful of parachutes opened into the night. Once on the ground the handful of SOE agents were quickly ushered away by Kurdish guerillas. So far the Kurdish rebellion had been negligible. Colonel T.E. Lawrence had had every intention of changing that...
Is it the same guy as Lawrence of Arabia? Well at this point I’d think he should be called ‘Bane of the Ottomans’ at this point lol. Let’s hope we see a big Kurdistan ittl.
Thessaloniki, June 29th, 1941
The Bulgarian tricolour was raised over the White Tower. Bulgaria had refused to join Barbarossa citing problems at home and the continuing threat from Greece. Germany and Italy had proven sympathetic but had demanded that if this was the case then the Bulgarian army should be committed to the Thessalian front. The Bulgarians had agreed, after all they could claim with a straight face that the majority of their army was tied down in occupation duties but had a price of their own...
Welp the Germans are leaving Greece more and more. That’s not good for the axis powers. What’s the situation at Thermopylae?
 
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Kars, Soviet Union, June 30th, 1941

Back in December 1937 Vladimir Triandafillov had been thrown into prison, supposedly as a Greek agent, more plausibly because he had claimed cavalry to be obsolete so was supposed to be on the side of marshal Tukhachevsky thus guilty by association. He had been ushered out of prison without explanation in the spring of 1940 and placed in command of the 45th Army in the Caucasus, a demotion compared to his former position but still much better than prison. He had spent the intervening 15 months thoroughly training his divisions. His fellow commanders of the 44th, 46th and 47th armies had not be as thorough but with nearly 900 tanks and over 1400 guns the Transcaucasus Front was nevertheless a fearsome war machine as it charged forward against the Turkish army.
The soviets strike against the Turks? That’s surprising. I thought they would be striking later. How will the Greeks respond?
 
Yey, Lawrence's death was butterflied, I wondered how an alive Lawrence could contribute to the SOE and SAS. Seems like they're sending him back to his ole hunting grounds.
 
Very excited about the Soviet offensive against the Turks. Unless the Turks stop it themselves, which seems unlikely, the Germans might find that the Turkish front is a greater distraction for them than it is for the Red Army.
 
Well Bulgarians fighting again at the sprecheios... Nikophoros ouranos will be watching the battlefield will great interest... On a side note does anyone know what happened to the Bulgarian jew during ww2? Hopefully the jews of Thessaloniki do not suffer as much as iotl
 
This is now shaping out to be somewhat similar to Turkey's situation in the Great War: they are have a front against Russia, a front in Mesopotamia and a front in Syria. Worse in some ways: it took the British until 1918 to reach Syria, and there was no fighting Green enclave in Turkey. Better because the German war machine in 1941 is still the most operationally capable one and it should be motivated to rescue Turkey if things get really bad. In OTL, Russia was knocked out of the war in 1917 and effectively seized operations against the Turks by summer of that year I think, which gave Turkey another year. Only the author knows how the USSR will fair ITTL - but if they hold on in 1941, the Germans are going to have some tough choices to make by 1942.

One thing that occurred to me (it may have already been brought up): Hitler was perpetually concerned about the possible air threat to Romanian oilfields. This was at least part of the motivation behind the Crete invasion IOTL, and for the attack on the Crimea that same year. I cannot say about Crete, but the Crimea was probably a waste of resources that year as the Soviet Air Force was far too weak and ineffective to be a real threat to Ploesti. The allies ITTL already hold Crete. And if they push the Turks back in Anatolia, that will give them far more space to develop airfields. And by 1943, it will be American bombers using those airfields to make relatively short range trips to Ploesti. I know oil fields turned out to be far more resilient to air attacks than anyone anticipated, but they are still vulnerable, and if the allies really focus on them, the Germans might end up with more serious fuel shortages earlier with all the effects that has.
 
Something that pop up in my head - Will Mussolini commit the same amount of troops to Barbarossa as OTL, or with the Greeks still in play, will commit few or none?
 
Butterflies flying all around! Lawrence of Arabia AND Anatolia, Pontic commander Triandafilov surviving his air crash in 1931 and leading an Army in the Caucasus Front( destined to be the liberator of Τραπεζούντα ? ), the Luftwaffe actually having a heavy bomber at the start of Barbarossa , the Bulgarians occupying Thessaloniki (and participating more actively in the war)...
 
Near Batman, Turkey, June 28th, 1941
"I am vengeance, I am the night, I am Thomas Edward Lawrence!"

From "The Tale of the Scarfed Crusader- TE Lawrence in Kurdistan"

Polikarpov I-180s start rising to the air as two hundred Do-19s hit the city at dawn

Interesting, very interesting. So, Polikarpov I-180 is not cancelled and enters mass production. The Soviets have a better fighter compared to OTL. At the same time, the Luftwaffe is having a greater attrition rate beginning with the Battle of Poland and then the Battles of France and Britain. Even the Balkan campaign was more costly to Lean Hermann's boys. I expect by December 1941, the I-180s have added to that compound interest.

The TAF is added to the game, but the turkish aircraft industry needs machine tools and additional aircraft. If the Luftwaffe is hard pressed, will they release such equipment to Turkey in meaningful numbers? After all, Romania has suffered a major defeat and romanian fighters will protect Ploesti. At the same time, Regia Aeronautica has suffered more losses compared to OTL.

In contrast, the Allied airforces are running the opposite compound interest. Fewer fighter casualties over Britain, more available pilots (Greeks, French, Poles) and an additional factory in Athens.

It is seems to me that the Axis cannot hope to gain air supremacy in the Mediterranean Theater of Operations during 1942. I think that they would be very hard pressed to achieve even air superiority during that year.

Wever and Goring were quick to conclude that all future raids would be at night at least till the newer He-177 replaced the Dornier machine

I am contemplating whether the four-engined bombers are good or bad news. I am tending towards good news. Germany doesn't have the industrial capacity to build a vast armada of heavy bombers as Britain in OTL. The Heer, its expansion and the fighting in the Eastern Front make sure of that.

Can they destroy the soviet industry hundreds of miles behind the frontlines? No.
Can they deploy heavy bomber fleets somewhat close to the front? No, the OTL british effort, showed what extensive infrastructure needs to be built.
Can they cause light to medium damage to the soviet industry? Yes.

What is not built in order to have heavy bombers without long-range single-engine escort fighters (Me-110 are suboptimal to put it mildly) causing light to medium damage to a part of the soviet arms industry? If I had to guess, the huge investment on Ju88s is butterflied. More moderate fleets of medium bombers will lead to a different and more inefficient tactical application of airpower over the frontlines.

Therefore, I think it is a net gain for the Allies.

The Turkish offensive in Syria came to a halt.

The Allies get breathing space. The Free French can continue their efforts to train replacements and raise local militias. The British can prepare for an ATL Crusader, this time with a better defended Malta. They can replace their tank losses - the DAK not so much. The increased number of Allied submarines and light units will start strangling the lifeline to Tripoli. Fun times ahead.

Madrid woke up once more to the sound of gunfire as army units loyal to Emilio Mola and Juan Yague and Phalangist militias rose up in revolt...
And we all hope the Phalangist militias to get what they deserve. I won't say more in order to avoid being graphic.
 
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Well there's my answer about Spain, hopefully Ochoa holds out. Maybe Spain will end up in the allied sphere by the end of the war? Might help them rebuild from another civil war and/or getting dragged into the war proper. At least relatively compared to what little I know of the Franco years.
 
Gorky, Soviet Union, June 30th, 1941

Polikarpov I-180s start rising to the air...
So it wasn't cancelled.
...as two hundred Do-19s hit the city at dawn.
ISTR Wever didn't get killed.

However, I think this raid would be overrreaching. Gorky would be over 1,000 km beyond the front. The bombers could get there safely in the dark, but that would be a very long return gauntlet to run by day with no escort.
 
Butterflies flying all around! Lawrence of Arabia AND Anatolia, Pontic commander Triandafilov surviving his air crash in 1931 and leading an Army in the Caucasus Front( destined to be the liberator of Τραπεζούντα ?
The Luftwaffe actually having a heavy bomber at the start of Barbarossa , the Bulgarians occupying Thessaloniki (and participating more actively in the war)...
Lawrence is basically dismantling the ottoman empire at this point. I'd see him heavily featuring as a villian in Turkic propaganda at this point.

I think having a proper commander in the Caucasus front would be highly beneficial to the USSR. I'd like to see how much land they manage to take from the Turks. No one's giving them sympathy and nothing can save them between the US and the USSR.

Idk how would a heavy bomber impact Barbarossa but it should be significant. Maybe somewhat better start? I'd like to see the Nazis reach Moscow. How plausible would that be?

The Bulgarians being more active should be punished more I'd think. Maybe territory losses to Greece?
 
800px-ParisPeace-Venizelos-Map.png


This was one of the Greek proposals at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919. I imagine they will want a large buffer area either side of Constantinople.
 
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