Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Britain invoking the escalator cause when it was doing her level best to reduce battleship tonnage is pretty much unlikely given its politics at the time. The most likely option for the first pair of ships to be laid down here is probably 15C with 9 15in guns in 3 triple turrets after all the Germans have already announced that both Sharnhorst and what become Bismarck will be using 380mm guns and the Sea Lords conference had decided as much in September 1935 before word came from on high that the Americans would go along with the 14in gun limit and all of a sudden a 15in gun ship "could not be adequately protected". What becomes of the ships of the 1937 program after the first pair of ships is laid down is a more interesting question... the British do have a modern 16in gun and turret after all the one used in Salamis so there shouldn't be any great technical difficulties over switching to something like 16B-38.
What happens to secondary armament is a different question. I think there is a plausible case to be made here that the QF 4.5in is butterflied away here in favour of the Vickers 4.7in used on Salamis. Of course this in nothing but an evolved Vickers Mark F / QF Mark VIII OTL so the British will not be necessarily logical here... And why they also evolved the QF 5.25 on top of the rest is beyond me.
Hey there was foreshadowing for Franco when he became the TTL "butcher of Asturias"
Eduardo Lopez Ochoa is also around. TTL with a more significant Catalonian uprising he was the one to go to Catalonia and Franco the one to go to Asturias... so he was spared the political fallout from violently suppressing the Asturias revolt.
It likely can, wouldn't even need a different calibre as the Pedersen 7x51 round it has adopted TTL works pretty well as an intermediate round.
Mortars are pretty simple, both the Yugoslavs and Romanians produced them in quantity and the Greeks actually planned on doing so in OTL, the Emagie company was the one to be building them with a factory being prepared in the Laurion if memory serves, details are in Papagos book as well as Vlassis.
Whatever the Germans do Schneider, Vickers, the Czechs or the Swedish would be very much cooperative. After all Greece is a customer in good standing and Vickers is a partner in the TTL Hephaestus Works created out of EEPK.
Most of them. After all when there is a need in the economy...
None should say that the additional artillery in Ethiopian hands was not put to good use... Costs are about the same so far.
Carden surviving was definitely in the cards from the start of the TL... still is, how sir John would find himself in the same plane and the plane still crash 15 years post-POD? Of course in the meantime @allanpcameron has treated the subject to far more detail than anything I can possibly do.
But speaking of plane crushes, we have a big difference ITTL . I think that MS405 prototype didn't crash IOTL, so here France is even more desperate for a "modern" fighter.
About Greece, I don't know about artillery but mortars will be easily manufactured, and given the rugged terrain in Greece, they could be really helpful .
Also, IOTL Venizelos died in March 1936, ITTL, with not having to suffer exile and not being sad about the failed OTL 1935 Venizelist coup, he still lives. The question is, for how long? Perhaps he will suffer the fate of Metaxas IOTL, dying during the war.
About Greece, I don't know about artillery but mortars will be easily manufactured, and given the rugged terrain in Greece, they could be really helpful .
Also, IOTL Venizelos died in March 1936, ITTL, with not having to suffer exile and not being sad about the failed OTL 1935 Venizelist coup, he still lives. The question is, for how long? Perhaps he will suffer the fate of Metaxas IOTL, dying during the war.
It might be useful for comparison to note that Venizelos was practically four years younger than Themistoklis Sofoulis who went to live through WW2 and die in 1949. We'll see I guess, but a parallel to Metaxas untimely death is sounding good as a narrative element as well.
That would be interesting to see Venizelos making it through WW2, as it would give him the unique feat of being the only head of government to lead his country through both world wars. All other leaders of 1918 are either dead, retired or out of power I believe by this point.
That would be interesting to see Venizelos making it through WW2, as it would give him the unique feat of being the only head of government to lead his country through both world wars. All other leaders of 1918 are either dead, retired or out of power I believe by this point.
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But venizelos will be in charge of a country at war with 3 fronts and her allies unable to do much.. that amount of stress will kill anyone so venizelos dying during the war is possible..but for storytelling purposes i would like venizelos living through the war and taking part in the Nuremberg trails after all the man was a lawyer (yeah i know it doesn't make any sense but i am sure venizelos will be more than happy to persecute some war criminals)
And if i remember correctly Atatürk in otl died in 1938..i wonder if the dies later ittl
MS-405 did not crash in OTL. LN-161 did crash on the other hand. Only when comparing the two LN-161, was faster, with a higher climb rate, better flying characteristics and required fewer man-hours to build...
He also caught pneumonia while in exile in Paris . By all available accounts he had left Greece in very good health.
That's a fairly reasonable point. By all accounts Venizelos was in rather good health OTL, he had his stroke while recovering from a bad case of pneumonia and certainly the levels of stress brought after the failure of the 1935 republican coup and the restoration hardly helped his condition. Pneumonia is something you catch. That said not being a doctor I'm not entirely certain what should be a reasonable additional timespan between not catching the pneumonia and not having what must have been some huge amounts of stress first in 1922-23 and then again in 1935-36. We need a doctor's opinion here...
Then Venizelos may be dead by the time WW2 starts or Greece may remain neutral, or may fight a parallel war... that an all out war will be inducing a lot of stress at his age is a very fair point.
The fact that he also had pneumonia and had a stroke is most likely reason that he died in 1936 but if i had his death certificate and autopsy (if they did one) could be helpfull..for example if i knew which coronary artery was blocked i could tell if he would survive the myocardial infarction or not and what health problems he will most likely develop... that's my 2 cents on the matter and ofcourse i am not a doctor but i am a nursing student and i am on my last year of university so i should know a couple things about infractions
Indeed overall ITTL, it could look as there is less potential stress for him from 1920 since Greece has been quite stable politically and has not had to go through the hardship of a worse refugee crisis and what it entailed afterwards, and the worse economic fallout of the Great Depression. Would it be unreasonable to think in this context to assume Venizelos would have been less at risk of a stroke?
Absent the exact factual circumstances of his death, I think we can reason based on probabilities and environment to asses this risk, and from there the consequences or absence of consequences.
Absent the exact factual circumstances of his death, I think we can reason based on probabilities and environment to asses this risk, and from there the consequences or absence of consequences.
Part 43
Spain, July 5th, 1936
The Spanish army went to action. Following the assassination of Franco nine days earlier and persistent rumours that a coup was brewing well before that, someone might have expected the government to be waiting for one. If it was, it had clearly failed to take the necessary action to prevent it. The coup plotters on their part had waited till Sunday in hopes of maximizing surprise but were less than completely successful either. The rebels quickly seized control of Spanish Morocco, the Balearic islands and the Canary islands where general Ochoa had been exiled in all but name after the Popular Front had come to power. In the Spanish mainland though results had been decidedly mixed for both sides. In Madrid the coup was suppressed with supporters of the coup forced in the Montana barracks, which would be stormed the next day and survivors executed. Old Castille, Leon and Navarre quickly sided with the rebels. On the reverse Valencia and Catalonia, stayed loyal to the republic, although Catalonia with the socialists and communists still weak from the 1934 rebellion had fallen under control of the anarchists. Further west the rebels had managed to secure Cadiz and Seville but their hold to them was rather precarious. Spain had been effectively split in half. So had the army and police forces in the mainland. The Army of Africa had passed under complete rebel control, on the reverse the majority of the navy had remained under control of the government. The advantage from controlling the navy though would be mostly negated when both Italy and Germany intervened on the side of the rebels allowing the rebels to move troops from Africa to the mainland reinforcing their hold on the south-west.
The coup had just given place to full scale civil war.
Constantinople, July 13th, 1936
A Comintern international conference in the city decided on supporting the Spanish government, with money and volunteers. The free city offered many unique opportunities in supporting the efforts to reinforce the republic. With British, French and Italian troops and civil servants already in the city, not to mention Greeks and Turks and large foreign communities, including tens of thousands of former While Russians, it was inevitable that the Queen of Cities was also home to spies and smugglers of all kinds.
Paris, August 1936
Under intense British pressure France proclaimed non intervention in the Spanish civil war. It would be soon followed by over two doze nations, ironically enough including Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union. Germany and Italy were already in blatant breach of non-intervention not just providing arms to the Nationalist side but also sending "volunteers" by the thousands to reinforce them. The Soviet Union would soon follow their example. France itself would continue shipping aircraft to the Republicans till the end of the year despite in theory leading the non intervention movement.
Spain, September 1936
With all out war underway, Largo Caballero became the Republic's prime minister a clear sign of the increasing control of the government by the Left. On the Nationalist side things remained less clear cut. During August general Ochoa's southern army had captured Estremadura linking with the northern army of general Mola and putting the entirety of the Portuguese border under Nationalist control, a useful advantage given Portuguese support for the nationalists. Following that Ochoa had advanced against Madrid, ignoring the Loyalist siege of Alcazar in Toledo, correctly expecting the besiegers would pull back to defend Madrid anyway. But noone was in overall control of the rebellion till finally, in September 27th general Miguel Cabanellas had been proclaimed generalissimo with Mola and Ochoa under him.
Drama, Macedonia, September 1936
The first load of Virginia tobacco was put in the oven for curing. The Greek tobacco industry had been facing a serious problem over the past few years as the British tobacco industry had switched over to Virginia and Burley tobacco and would not buy Oriental tobacco. Worse yet from the Greek point of view there appeared to be a gradual switch away from oriental tobacco in continental Europe as well. And far worse from a strategic point of view Germany was among the United States one of the two main importers of Greek tobacco leaving Greece potentially economically dependent on Germany. Given the international situation this was not something acceptable to the Greek government. The Agricultural university of Athens had been given as a priority task the introduction of American tobacco varieties to Greece back in 1933 and following the first successful experiments in the 1935 planting season, the Agricultural Bank of Greece had start subsidising the switch to Virginia and Burley tobacco, in place of the lower quality varieties of Oriental tobacco. A wholesale switch to the American varieties was neither expected nor desirable, Greek varieties like Agrinion, Smyrna or Basma were excellent in their own way after all but it was hoped that over the next 5 years around a third of the Greek tobacco production would switch to American varieties. These in turn were exportable to Britain...
Madrid, October 1st 1936
20,000 Nationalist troops supported by Italian and German tanks and aircraft assaulted the city. On the Loyalist side the defenders were numerically superior with 42,000 men but were severely lacking in arms and ammunition compared to their opponents. For two weeks Nationalist troops slowly ground their way through taking and inflicting very heavy casualties. It looked as if Madrid was about to fall... then the first 50 T-26 tanks shipped from the Soviet Union entered the battle counterattacking against the exhausted Nationalists and pushing them back. The Nationalists would still keep a toehold at the city at a cost of nearly 10,000 casualties but Madrid held. But the Loyalist victory, at 20,000 casualties had been anything but cheap...
Mugla, Turkey, October 12th 1936
Mussolini had held to his part of the deal with Kemal and a referendum on the future of Caria, had taken place in September 1936. The result had not been much in doubt, Turkey would had won a fair referendum and Kemal had not had any intention of taking chances. A Turkish infantry division had then replaced the Italian garrison and Kemal was here to declare victory, at the first territory in Anatolia to be returned to Turkish control. And to take the opportunity to announce the new law introducing surnames for everyone, he would graciously accept the spontaneous public calls, organized of course ahead of time, to take up Ataturk as a surname himself.
Vyronas, Smyrna, October 1936
The old neighbourhood of Daragatsi [1] had taken the opportunity to rename itself after Lord Byron back in 1924 at the centennial of his death, after all the previous name after a tree used for hangings was somewhat problematic. Now it was becoming home to thousands of new residents as most of the Greek population of Caria had voted with their feet after the referendum, leaving the territory ahead of the Turkish army.
Valencia, Spain, October 1936
Greece had been quick to follow the British and French lead over not intervening in the Spanish civil war and the government had scrupulously followed the agreements. Entirely coincidentally the Greek army had provided a large amount of old munitions to the Hephaestus works, to recycle their materials in exchange of an equal amount of new munitions, of course there was nothing odd in newly build artillery shells and bullets costing as much as the recycled materials they were made of. As there was nothing odd in Hephaestus also buying old torpedoes, 65mm mountain guns, Chauchat LMGs and 8mm Mannlicher rifles that had been captured from the Bulgarians back in 1913 again for disposal, actually at prices higher than newly built weapons. The first ships carrying Greek surplus munitions and arms to the Loyalists start unloading their cargo, the payment, in gold had already been disposed to Greek accounts in Paris. Greek re-armament, needed financing and the British were still refusing to provide loans for military sales after all...
[1] Modern day Umurbey
The Spanish army went to action. Following the assassination of Franco nine days earlier and persistent rumours that a coup was brewing well before that, someone might have expected the government to be waiting for one. If it was, it had clearly failed to take the necessary action to prevent it. The coup plotters on their part had waited till Sunday in hopes of maximizing surprise but were less than completely successful either. The rebels quickly seized control of Spanish Morocco, the Balearic islands and the Canary islands where general Ochoa had been exiled in all but name after the Popular Front had come to power. In the Spanish mainland though results had been decidedly mixed for both sides. In Madrid the coup was suppressed with supporters of the coup forced in the Montana barracks, which would be stormed the next day and survivors executed. Old Castille, Leon and Navarre quickly sided with the rebels. On the reverse Valencia and Catalonia, stayed loyal to the republic, although Catalonia with the socialists and communists still weak from the 1934 rebellion had fallen under control of the anarchists. Further west the rebels had managed to secure Cadiz and Seville but their hold to them was rather precarious. Spain had been effectively split in half. So had the army and police forces in the mainland. The Army of Africa had passed under complete rebel control, on the reverse the majority of the navy had remained under control of the government. The advantage from controlling the navy though would be mostly negated when both Italy and Germany intervened on the side of the rebels allowing the rebels to move troops from Africa to the mainland reinforcing their hold on the south-west.
The coup had just given place to full scale civil war.
Constantinople, July 13th, 1936
A Comintern international conference in the city decided on supporting the Spanish government, with money and volunteers. The free city offered many unique opportunities in supporting the efforts to reinforce the republic. With British, French and Italian troops and civil servants already in the city, not to mention Greeks and Turks and large foreign communities, including tens of thousands of former While Russians, it was inevitable that the Queen of Cities was also home to spies and smugglers of all kinds.
Paris, August 1936
Under intense British pressure France proclaimed non intervention in the Spanish civil war. It would be soon followed by over two doze nations, ironically enough including Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union. Germany and Italy were already in blatant breach of non-intervention not just providing arms to the Nationalist side but also sending "volunteers" by the thousands to reinforce them. The Soviet Union would soon follow their example. France itself would continue shipping aircraft to the Republicans till the end of the year despite in theory leading the non intervention movement.
Spain, September 1936
With all out war underway, Largo Caballero became the Republic's prime minister a clear sign of the increasing control of the government by the Left. On the Nationalist side things remained less clear cut. During August general Ochoa's southern army had captured Estremadura linking with the northern army of general Mola and putting the entirety of the Portuguese border under Nationalist control, a useful advantage given Portuguese support for the nationalists. Following that Ochoa had advanced against Madrid, ignoring the Loyalist siege of Alcazar in Toledo, correctly expecting the besiegers would pull back to defend Madrid anyway. But noone was in overall control of the rebellion till finally, in September 27th general Miguel Cabanellas had been proclaimed generalissimo with Mola and Ochoa under him.
Drama, Macedonia, September 1936
The first load of Virginia tobacco was put in the oven for curing. The Greek tobacco industry had been facing a serious problem over the past few years as the British tobacco industry had switched over to Virginia and Burley tobacco and would not buy Oriental tobacco. Worse yet from the Greek point of view there appeared to be a gradual switch away from oriental tobacco in continental Europe as well. And far worse from a strategic point of view Germany was among the United States one of the two main importers of Greek tobacco leaving Greece potentially economically dependent on Germany. Given the international situation this was not something acceptable to the Greek government. The Agricultural university of Athens had been given as a priority task the introduction of American tobacco varieties to Greece back in 1933 and following the first successful experiments in the 1935 planting season, the Agricultural Bank of Greece had start subsidising the switch to Virginia and Burley tobacco, in place of the lower quality varieties of Oriental tobacco. A wholesale switch to the American varieties was neither expected nor desirable, Greek varieties like Agrinion, Smyrna or Basma were excellent in their own way after all but it was hoped that over the next 5 years around a third of the Greek tobacco production would switch to American varieties. These in turn were exportable to Britain...
Madrid, October 1st 1936
20,000 Nationalist troops supported by Italian and German tanks and aircraft assaulted the city. On the Loyalist side the defenders were numerically superior with 42,000 men but were severely lacking in arms and ammunition compared to their opponents. For two weeks Nationalist troops slowly ground their way through taking and inflicting very heavy casualties. It looked as if Madrid was about to fall... then the first 50 T-26 tanks shipped from the Soviet Union entered the battle counterattacking against the exhausted Nationalists and pushing them back. The Nationalists would still keep a toehold at the city at a cost of nearly 10,000 casualties but Madrid held. But the Loyalist victory, at 20,000 casualties had been anything but cheap...
Mugla, Turkey, October 12th 1936
Mussolini had held to his part of the deal with Kemal and a referendum on the future of Caria, had taken place in September 1936. The result had not been much in doubt, Turkey would had won a fair referendum and Kemal had not had any intention of taking chances. A Turkish infantry division had then replaced the Italian garrison and Kemal was here to declare victory, at the first territory in Anatolia to be returned to Turkish control. And to take the opportunity to announce the new law introducing surnames for everyone, he would graciously accept the spontaneous public calls, organized of course ahead of time, to take up Ataturk as a surname himself.
Vyronas, Smyrna, October 1936
The old neighbourhood of Daragatsi [1] had taken the opportunity to rename itself after Lord Byron back in 1924 at the centennial of his death, after all the previous name after a tree used for hangings was somewhat problematic. Now it was becoming home to thousands of new residents as most of the Greek population of Caria had voted with their feet after the referendum, leaving the territory ahead of the Turkish army.
Valencia, Spain, October 1936
Greece had been quick to follow the British and French lead over not intervening in the Spanish civil war and the government had scrupulously followed the agreements. Entirely coincidentally the Greek army had provided a large amount of old munitions to the Hephaestus works, to recycle their materials in exchange of an equal amount of new munitions, of course there was nothing odd in newly build artillery shells and bullets costing as much as the recycled materials they were made of. As there was nothing odd in Hephaestus also buying old torpedoes, 65mm mountain guns, Chauchat LMGs and 8mm Mannlicher rifles that had been captured from the Bulgarians back in 1913 again for disposal, actually at prices higher than newly built weapons. The first ships carrying Greek surplus munitions and arms to the Loyalists start unloading their cargo, the payment, in gold had already been disposed to Greek accounts in Paris. Greek re-armament, needed financing and the British were still refusing to provide loans for military sales after all...
[1] Modern day Umurbey
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- So, where did you say you got these ammo and weapons for us?
- It fell off a truck in Greece.
- How much?
- All the truck.
- It fell off a truck in Greece.
- How much?
- All the truck.
Azores is a Portuguese territory. I guess you meant the Canary Islands.
This, I’m not too sure Portugal would be supporting the Nationalists if they were seizing their territory lol.
Nice update. I assume the switch to American tobacco is historical?
I am under the impression that no american varieties were cultivated in Greece during the Interwar. Therefore, I think it is a major butterfly as the hard currency reserves will be increased and in a timely way. I can easily see the Virginia and Burley tobacco being turned into a couple of british S-class submarines and a couple of additional Curtiss squadrons.
By the way, I hypothesize that the Turks may have a problem with servicing the Ottoman Public Debt. They have less debt, but also less exports to get the hard currency to service it. Moreover, there is a strong chance that the lira might be weaker in TTL. To quote from the "ill-made alliance":
I expect the turkish economy and arms procurement to drift more and more towards Germany. Schacht had created an artificial demand for turkish products. And Turkey needs more arms compared to OTL, since the battles of the Greco-Turkish War have resulted in significantly less material. But Germany cannot afford to sufficiently arm the turkish army, without compromising their own rearmament. It would be interesting to see the balance. For example, if instead of 100 french R-35s we see 100 Pz IIs in turkish service by 1940, it means a slightly weaker panzer force in Fall Gelb. Certainly not enough to change the outcome, but could cause a score more panzer casualties in May-June 1940. If instead of 190 french 25mm anti-tank guns, they get german 37mm ones, then the Heer has 190 fewer anti-tank guns and the French either have some more, or the Polish/ Greeks get them. In any case, these 190 guns will be used to shoot axis tanks.
The same applies to the Turkish Air Force. If instead of 30 Hurricanes, 30 MS-406s and 36 Blenheims, they get 60 Bf-109s and 36 Do-17s, then the Luftwaffe is a bit weaker and the Allied Air Forces are just a bit stronger.
By the way, I hypothesize that the Turks may have a problem with servicing the Ottoman Public Debt. They have less debt, but also less exports to get the hard currency to service it. Moreover, there is a strong chance that the lira might be weaker in TTL. To quote from the "ill-made alliance":
I expect the turkish economy and arms procurement to drift more and more towards Germany. Schacht had created an artificial demand for turkish products. And Turkey needs more arms compared to OTL, since the battles of the Greco-Turkish War have resulted in significantly less material. But Germany cannot afford to sufficiently arm the turkish army, without compromising their own rearmament. It would be interesting to see the balance. For example, if instead of 100 french R-35s we see 100 Pz IIs in turkish service by 1940, it means a slightly weaker panzer force in Fall Gelb. Certainly not enough to change the outcome, but could cause a score more panzer casualties in May-June 1940. If instead of 190 french 25mm anti-tank guns, they get german 37mm ones, then the Heer has 190 fewer anti-tank guns and the French either have some more, or the Polish/ Greeks get them. In any case, these 190 guns will be used to shoot axis tanks.
The same applies to the Turkish Air Force. If instead of 30 Hurricanes, 30 MS-406s and 36 Blenheims, they get 60 Bf-109s and 36 Do-17s, then the Luftwaffe is a bit weaker and the Allied Air Forces are just a bit stronger.
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Fixed thanks!
Research into the introduction of American varieties begun in OTL in late 1935 in the Tobacco institute of Drama, but was hampered by lack of proper financing. It took till September 1940 for Law 295 under which the Greek ministry of Agriculture would oversee the experimental introduction of American varieties of tobacco in Greece. Tthus large scale introduction happened only post war when it took about 30% of overall production. TTL there are I think several reasons to accelerate the pace of development. Thus experimenting begins a full 2 years earlier and is pushed much more aggressively.
1. The industry is in a much better financial footing. The large numbers of tobacco growers in the Smyrna region in OTL found their way to Greece as destitute refugees. TTL for obvious reasons this is not the case and an overwhelming part of their exports was going to the United States. In OTL 1938 for example Greece exported 48,707t of which 26,675t went to Germany and 10,027t to USA. TTL, with Smyrna also part of Greece, exports to the US should be at a very conservative estimate about double if not higher in 1919-22 the US was importing 6,300-10,000t a year from Anatolia and this was coming overwhelmingly from Greece in Asia. Assuming merely the same numbers with nothing else changed Greek exports would be 58,707t with 45.4% going to Germany and 34.1% going to the US as opposed to 54.8% and 20.5% respectively. Thus the cost of switching to Virginia leaf (mostly curing ovens) can be much better absorbed. Better financing means accidentally more penetration of the British market as well, as the OTL proposals for a permanent tobacco office that would include a number of tobacco experts in London can be financed much more easily.
2. TTL apart from the Agricultural university of Athens, you also have the Agricultural school of the Ionian university in Smyrna in addition to things like the American agricultural school of Thessaloniki. More trained manpower, more facilities... (Speaking of universities note that TTL Thessaloniki has not gotten a university yet, for obvious political reasons Constantinople took precedence over establishing the third Greek university after Athens and Smyrna)
3. The Greek government has a stronger even earlier imperative to worry about dependence of Greek exports to Germany. In OTL serious worries begun around 1938. TTL with Greece even further into the western camp and Venizelos, who was on record OTL of being very suspicious of Hitler, in government they happen much earlier.
Lets say that they have a problem with the Ottoman Public Debt (they most certainly do BTW, just like they had in OTL). Lets further contemplate that they decide to stop servicing it. Who is holding most of said debt? France and Britain. Now lets hypothetically assume that the Turkish government decides to stop serving said debt. Lets make it funnier and say it stops serving the French and British parts of it "why the Italians and Germans accept being paid through clearing agreements if you also did payments of the debt in Turkish liras would have continued! It's your fault!". What is Turkey going to lose? The French and British won't give new loans to it? They have not given any anyway. They won't export arms to Turkey? But Turkey in not buying arms from them at the moment. Other British and French exports will be hampered and Turkey will need to import industrial products from Germany which is already giving Turkish trade prefferential treatment (as Schlacht also did OTL)? Oh wait...
One should note that there was a certain amount of German and Italian arms exports to Greece and Yugoslavia OTL. It's no secret that the ones to Greece ain't happening TTL while the ones to Yugoslavia look dubious with Alexander living into 1935, a failed assassination attempt on him and a much earlier Balkan Entente (as intended in 1920) Yugoslavia is further into the western camp itself.
If on the other hand the THK did not get 30 Hurricanes, 40 MS-406s and 3 Spitfires but by the same token Yugoslavia never got 73 Bf-109Es either... Leaving aside Yugoslav politics there is a reasonable case to be made that if Germany has a fixed amount of arms exports, and has to choose between Turkey and some other country, Turkey would be getting preference in deliveries for a combination of economic (chrome), political and ideological (the Nazi/German right hero worship of Kemal) over most potential customers.
Of course the reverse is also true. If France for example can spare exporting 70 105mm guns who's most likely to take precedence in deliveries Greece or Lithuania? (which in OTL bought 70 Mle1934).
So from what it has been said greece is already producing artillery shells ttl was the case in olt aswell?
Yes EEPK was producing both artillery shells and bullets, its facilities were quite extensive and it was exporting munitions not just to Spain but also to the Chinese and elsewhere, come 1940 Greece was actually delivering munitions to Britain... after the Italian invasion (outstanding orders of 50 million bullets IMS, part of it went to the Greek army the rest were still delivered to the British army in Egypt)
I have a feeling that there's no way Greece will survive the coming war without getting occupied by Italy/Turkey/Bulgaria/Germany until they get liberated later on, but they're definitely going to be putting up a damn good fight