I don't see Stalin, who will offend that he was not given a toy that he has little chance of getting, like a base in Tripoli IOTL, and will refuse a share in East Asia
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
I could see Stalin joining later and not getting the Kuril islands while getting all of shakalin for example, which would make things very interesting.
It’s not so much that Stalin would be refusing a chunk of East Asia as it would be him thinking he has time to try and twist concession out of the Western Allies for his help in Asia. He may think by holding out after a poor Tehran that he could extract something more from them at Yalta or whatever the later conference may be. Especially since to my knowledge Stalin wasn’t offered any land in Asia for his assistance until Yalta. So he has little to no reason to agree to attack the Japanese after Germany right now with him getting so little of what he wants at Tehran.
hmm that makes sense.
would Stalin having to also consider Turkey and the Middle east cause the Kurils and Sakalin to be off the table in exchange for concessions in the ME? I can imagine Stalin attempting a Kurdish SSR for example, and the split of Turkey into multiple occupation zones would make sense too since it'd be where the allies and the soviet's zones of influence would come into contact.
an alternate yalta where he pushes for the conquest of Sakhalin would make sense I think.
Also would we get an apology for the war crimes by the japanese ittl?
I also wonder how China would go ittl. I defo hope we get a ROC with some land in the south like Fujian and Guangdong for example.
Stalin doesn't take what he want. Stalin takes what he can.
I don't see why the Allies should refuse Soviet aid against Japan ITTL. Stalin may not get his piece in East Asia only if Japan shows uncharacteristic prudence and capitulates before the Soviet invasion
Stalin refused direct annexations of new republics after WWII. It will rather be a Kurdish Republic with communists in a coalition government, which, with luck, will become "Democratic".
I don't se how KMT can defend territories in the continent against consolidated antagonist government after fall of Yangtze valley
At the very least, KMT Hainan might be a possible thing ITTL.
Tbf I think the kmt should've been able to control Hainan in otl even if land assaults from China supposedly was easy because of the island being so close.
I think only with additional us support (us boots on the ground) would the Chinese government hold up against the CCP.
The Chinese Civil war is complicated to say the least and my overall knowledge of it is weak. That said I’ve got a plausible series of events I could see happening. Stalin/the USSR don’t get offered as much territory from Japan as otl due to their recalcitrance at Tehran and Yalta towards getting involved. Let’s say Manchuria and Northern Korea to the 39th parralel instead of the 38th, and no Japanese islands. Now a major factor in the CCP turning the war in their favor were all the Japanese weapons the Soviets gave them after the war, weapons they’ll still get but in lesser quantities. I don’t know the Chinese Civil war well enough to know if this would actually change any major event, but with fewer weapons things will probably be slower for the CCP at least.. I don’t know how much slower but if the Korean War kicks off at around the same time, saving the Nationalist Chinese and freezing the lines where they are becomes a priority. And Hainan was taken so late in the game it at least is like to stay in the Nationalists hands for the time being. Down the road I don’t know how tenable it’ll be but I could see them keeping it for a while longer.
The Kurds are supported by the British till now I doubt they would flip to the Soviets.
Reasonable and unreasonable are all a matter of definition of course are they not?
To a proclamation of union by the locals. Well some of them anyway.
Iran is in an interesting position is it not? Both the Soviets and the British have "interests" on it while being antagonistic to each other. At least Teymourtash is a cannier operator than Reza.
The Americans still displayed a certain degree of idealism. By comparison to British and Soviet diplomats at least...
Well the Americans are still dead set on an invasion of France, Balkan front or no Balkan front. You'd notice that neither the British not the American forces that took part in Overlord had been diminished any. France is taking precedence over the Mediterranean, Italy is taking precedence over the Balkans and Anatolia....
The Chetniks have been... reformed (translate had arms twisted to the point of breaking with Mihailovic replaced from command) to ensure their active participation in the fighting. But with this secured they also have the fighting credentials not to be abandoned. That the Yugoslav government in exile also has a large mostly Serb army in Greece most certainly helps in the same direction. On the other hand Tito still has over 300,000 partisans would also have to be accomodated.
How much does Sikorski surviving affects things? Uncertain. What do our Polish members think?
This presupposes it doesn't go his way. Stalin does have a major interest in what happens to Turkey, the man was paranoid and TTL you don't even have a Montreux convention, TTL The British and French parked three divisions and a fleet in Constantinople threatening Sevastopol after the Winter war start and Stalin certainly did take notice...
TTL King George V have been the Admiralty's 15C design (9x15in guns, 28.5knots), by the point the were laid down both the Italians and French had laid down 16-inch ships so any hope of reducing gun caliber to 14-inch was as dead as the dodo. They were followed by Anson and Howe as a 16-inch gunned design (OTL 16B-38 in effect KGV with 16-inch guns) with the pair of Lions laid down as the proper 16-inch design. Only Lion can get built and given she gets significantly delayed by the time she's completed she's likely closer to the 1942 design.
Who said they have not? Oh you mean the reader knowing their demands explicitly.
Methinks you people have gotten spoiled?
The Allies are advancing their way to the German Winter Line, Italian units in the Balkans that successfully switched sides are being shipped to Italy and reorganized into a new army to fight on the Allied side. There are obvious issues with this, given most Italian industry is German occupied and the Italian army is not exactly at the highest place of Allied priorities for new arms...
This would depend on the post war situation of course. Greece does have an advantage trade wise in having one of the world's largest merchant marines... even though this is taking grievous losses due to the war.
Shipbuilding should be an obvious one. The Basileiadis yards are alive and well and to them TTL has been added the navy's yard in Skaramanga since the 1920s.
One obvious issue TTL is what happens to the Greek community of Egypt. OTL the Arabs threatened to take action against it, if Greece recognized Israel in 1948 and then Nasser went and expelled it anyway. TTL Greece's attitudes in Arab states trying to blackmail it would be no doubt... interesting.
What happens to the armament industry painstakingly brought to being after the war is over is an interesting question. One could compare to Australia or... Sweden. After all at this point the Greeks aircraft industry isn't much different in sophistication from either the Swedes or the Australians OTL (which is not accidental since I've modelled the expansion of KEA beyond OTL's levels upon CAC, since the latter had been built up from scratch TTL)
And in the case of European arms industries in the early 1950s outright aid them. Frex European aircraft industries did receive both a degree of research help, area ruling information for example that was essential for high speed aircraft design and American paid orders for their own production, French Mystere fighters for example were being paid by US funds. TTL it would be anything but surprising to see this extended to Greek industry just as it was extended to Dutch and Belgian industry for example.
I'd note that nearly 142,000 Yugos were exported to the United States...
As a side note, additional forces from the Soviet far east had to be sent to the Caucasus TTL. Granted compared to the massive scale of reinforcements sent east in 1945...
The Kurds are in the British sphere of influence at the moment. If they get an independent state at the end of the war was does not look unlikely, the cynic would note their politics as still mostly tribal in nature in 1944. Independent Kurdistan would need its time to turn into a modern state.
If there is a Chinese civil war and the KMT loses it Hainan can certainly be part of the ROC... if the ROC can defend it. I note it is 1,000 km from Taiwan and 30km from the mainland. In effect it would have to fend on its own.
If it goes that way, the problem with Hainan as noted is geography, the PRC would try to take it for certain and Hainan would be much closer to the mainland for comfort.
It depends on each industry. Small arms production for example has more than doubled from 1941.
Tbf the possibility that Chiang just never went all out against the CCP in trying to secure Manchuria and instead consolidated power in Nanjing is a possible change, or that the Americans provided the men and materiale promised in early 1948 may be enough to stop the Communists and allow the KMT to survive in Canton.
Tbf there's many different possibilities for the Chinese civil war to end differently than otl.
Without the Soviet invasion of Iran during OTL WWII, I imagine Mosaddegh is going to get a lot more comfy with the Soviets. Imagine Khomeini being propped up by the US as a counter.
Out of interest, prior to WW2 how did Poland's automobile industry in ATL differ from OTL?
FWIW in OTL due to Poland's pre-war cooperation with Fiat, a Polish-Italian trade agreement was signed in 1947 under which Fiat declared that it would build the factory and launch the production of Fiat 508 Balila later the 1100 with annual production of 20.000. The licences to be paid for with coal and metal industry products.
However in 1949, the contract with Fiat was terminated while the factory was being built. The decision was reportedly made in the cabinet of Joseph Stalin himself, who stated that the socialist states should support each other and not cooperate with the "capitalist West". Some sources suspect that the Italians themselves withdrew from the arrangements, because they received large amounts of cheap American coal as part of Marshall's aid. As a result what became the FSO Warszawa would basically be a rebadged GAZ-M20 Pobeda.
Fascinated to see if the groundwork is laid in ATL for a post-war Poland that retains ties to Fiat, providing cars for Poland that unlike the OTL Warszawa would be more accessible to the average person (as would be the case with the Maluch years later).
FWIW in OTL due to Poland's pre-war cooperation with Fiat, a Polish-Italian trade agreement was signed in 1947 under which Fiat declared that it would build the factory and launch the production of Fiat 508 Balila later the 1100 with annual production of 20.000. The licences to be paid for with coal and metal industry products.
However in 1949, the contract with Fiat was terminated while the factory was being built. The decision was reportedly made in the cabinet of Joseph Stalin himself, who stated that the socialist states should support each other and not cooperate with the "capitalist West". Some sources suspect that the Italians themselves withdrew from the arrangements, because they received large amounts of cheap American coal as part of Marshall's aid. As a result what became the FSO Warszawa would basically be a rebadged GAZ-M20 Pobeda.
Fascinated to see if the groundwork is laid in ATL for a post-war Poland that retains ties to Fiat, providing cars for Poland that unlike the OTL Warszawa would be more accessible to the average person (as would be the case with the Maluch years later).
I don't really see how the POD would affect the Polish automobile industry before 1939. The only notable butterfly in Poland was the survival of Pulawski... hence the PZL.50s in the battle of Poland and their Greek derivatives.
I see. As it is Fiat were in the process of designing a car called the Fiat 700 that resembled a smaller 1100 Balila and likely would have been even more suited to places like Poland and Greece before the outbreak of war put a stop to further development, which was part of a number of other cancelled projects that included a smaller Topolino replacement known as the Fiat 400.
Would be worth seeing ATL Greece have its own version of OTL Tofaş and put their own unique spin on licence-built Fiats or models with Fiat parts.
Part 135
Tehran, November 28th, 1943
Churchill and Roosevelt met for the first time with Josef Stalin. Considerable work had been required behind the scenes to get the three main Allied leaders in the same place between Stalin's reluctance, not to say paranoia to leave Soviet territory and Roosevelt's deteriorating health. Over the next three days the three leaders would discuss both war strategy and the post-war settlement. Between Roosevelt and Stalin Churchill would be forced to agree to a cross-channel invasion of France in May 1944, in conjunction with an operation against southern France and a Soviet offensive at about the same time to tie down German forces. The three staffs would increase their cooperation, support would be extended to the Yugoslav resistance, both the Partisans and the Chetniks and offensives to knock Turkey out of the war, were agree by the British and the Soviets as soon weather allowed in early spring.
Political arrangements would prove rather more difficult, but in the end not inconsiderable progress would be made there. The two western leaders, under the constant lobbying of Sikorski and his government in exile would try to support Poland to some extend but would still agree to Poland making widespread territorial concessions to the Soviet Union in the east with Stalin concurring with Churchill's proposal to compensate Poland with German territory in the west. After all from the Soviet point of view there was only to gain from agreeing to Poland gaining German territory as it would be both weakening the Germans and hopefully ensuring future hostility between Germany and Poland. Preliminary agreement was made that Poland's eastern border would be set in the in the Curzon B line with the western border moved to the Oder-Neisse line in compensation. With Roosevelt reluctant to adhere a final deal due to domestic political concerns final ratification of the plans would have to wait for the next Allied conference..
On Turkey reaching agreement would prove more difficult. Stalin was quick to agree to the Kurds right of self-determination. Britain and the United States had no problem to agree to adjustments on the Soviet-Turkish border. it was the fait of the straits that would become subject to far more heated argument. Stalin was adamant on the importance for Soviet security of control of the Black sea. Access to the Black sea should be open only to Soviet warships, and the Soviet Union should have a military presence in the straits. Greek annexation of Constantinople, proposed by Churchill, was unacceptable to the Soviet Union, Greece should be granted border adjustments in both Turkey and Bulgaria, he left the exact extend of such adjustments open to Britain and the United States to decide. Churchill would argue. Stalin would argue back. Roosevelt would mediate between the two but would prove rather sympathetic to the Soviet security arguments, surely Churchill being still stuck to the great game with Russia had little to do with the post-war future, and the United Nations to be. Finally some agreement acceptable to all sides would be hammered out. Or the start of one.
Caspian Sea, December 2nd, 1943
The Vozhd looked in good spirits, Molotov reflected, as he saw him smoking his pipe, aboard the deck of the ship bringing them back to the soviet Union. The capitalists had agreed to a treaty limiting foreign warships to the Black sea and more importantly to the Soviet Union getting a presence, either directly or as part of a territory of the United Nations to be both the Asiatic side of Constantinople and the Biga peninsula. The details remained to be seen but either way the Soviet Union would have military bases in both areas to ensure the Black Sea treaty had teeth. And in exchange it had agreed to the British and Americans giving their Greek puppets what territory they saw fit at the cost of Turkey and Bulgaria, neither of the two countries was particularly popular in Allied capitals at the moment. Which was going to be a poisoned chalice for the capitalists and he had no doubt the Vozhd had every intention of making it so. Take a pound of flesh from the Turks on top of taking Kurdistan and whom the Turks would be blaming for it? Not take it and you'd be alienating the Greeks without necessarily soothing Turkish feelings given the loss of Kurdistan. Of course there was also the matter of the Soviet Union's own territorial ambitions in the east...
Cairo, December 3rd, 1943
Winston Churchill looked again at the napkin were the results of his late night private meeting with Stalin laid written for posterity. Greece was of course to be western. Kurdistan 90-10. Iran 75-25. Turkey, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia 50-50. Romania 25-75. Not great but the best he could do at the moment. And with some luck the split percentages could surely change to the West's favour. If a country avoided Communist domination surely democracy and free market would prevail from within. With sufficient help and guidance from London if necessary. He sipped more from his whiskey before looking at another note. Tomorrow he would be in Athens. And if neither Mr Dragoumis nor the Sophoklis Venizelos were up to the league of Eleutherios Venizelos, this did not make them easy customers. And he and Franklin would be presenting them with some pretty tough choices...
Athens, December 4th, 1943
Ion Dragoumis gave a carefully calculated look to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He liked to profess himself an idealist even to himself, but this belied nearly half a century as a diplomat and statesman, a good one at that.
"So my dear Mr. Roosevelt, to get it straight. Greece can choose between the European side of Constantinople being part of a United Nations Free Territory, effectively a continuation of the pre-war League city, or to having a plebiscite overseen by the three Allied powers, as soon as the City is liberated, to unite with Greece. Said plebiscite would of course not take into account the... demographic changes within the City in the past three years, now would it? You have seen our intelligence estimates that perhaps up to 100,000 Greeks and Armenians have died from starvation or other causes and the entire Jewish population was shipped away by the Germans. Of course you have..."
Churchill and Roosevelt met for the first time with Josef Stalin. Considerable work had been required behind the scenes to get the three main Allied leaders in the same place between Stalin's reluctance, not to say paranoia to leave Soviet territory and Roosevelt's deteriorating health. Over the next three days the three leaders would discuss both war strategy and the post-war settlement. Between Roosevelt and Stalin Churchill would be forced to agree to a cross-channel invasion of France in May 1944, in conjunction with an operation against southern France and a Soviet offensive at about the same time to tie down German forces. The three staffs would increase their cooperation, support would be extended to the Yugoslav resistance, both the Partisans and the Chetniks and offensives to knock Turkey out of the war, were agree by the British and the Soviets as soon weather allowed in early spring.
Political arrangements would prove rather more difficult, but in the end not inconsiderable progress would be made there. The two western leaders, under the constant lobbying of Sikorski and his government in exile would try to support Poland to some extend but would still agree to Poland making widespread territorial concessions to the Soviet Union in the east with Stalin concurring with Churchill's proposal to compensate Poland with German territory in the west. After all from the Soviet point of view there was only to gain from agreeing to Poland gaining German territory as it would be both weakening the Germans and hopefully ensuring future hostility between Germany and Poland. Preliminary agreement was made that Poland's eastern border would be set in the in the Curzon B line with the western border moved to the Oder-Neisse line in compensation. With Roosevelt reluctant to adhere a final deal due to domestic political concerns final ratification of the plans would have to wait for the next Allied conference..
On Turkey reaching agreement would prove more difficult. Stalin was quick to agree to the Kurds right of self-determination. Britain and the United States had no problem to agree to adjustments on the Soviet-Turkish border. it was the fait of the straits that would become subject to far more heated argument. Stalin was adamant on the importance for Soviet security of control of the Black sea. Access to the Black sea should be open only to Soviet warships, and the Soviet Union should have a military presence in the straits. Greek annexation of Constantinople, proposed by Churchill, was unacceptable to the Soviet Union, Greece should be granted border adjustments in both Turkey and Bulgaria, he left the exact extend of such adjustments open to Britain and the United States to decide. Churchill would argue. Stalin would argue back. Roosevelt would mediate between the two but would prove rather sympathetic to the Soviet security arguments, surely Churchill being still stuck to the great game with Russia had little to do with the post-war future, and the United Nations to be. Finally some agreement acceptable to all sides would be hammered out. Or the start of one.
Caspian Sea, December 2nd, 1943
The Vozhd looked in good spirits, Molotov reflected, as he saw him smoking his pipe, aboard the deck of the ship bringing them back to the soviet Union. The capitalists had agreed to a treaty limiting foreign warships to the Black sea and more importantly to the Soviet Union getting a presence, either directly or as part of a territory of the United Nations to be both the Asiatic side of Constantinople and the Biga peninsula. The details remained to be seen but either way the Soviet Union would have military bases in both areas to ensure the Black Sea treaty had teeth. And in exchange it had agreed to the British and Americans giving their Greek puppets what territory they saw fit at the cost of Turkey and Bulgaria, neither of the two countries was particularly popular in Allied capitals at the moment. Which was going to be a poisoned chalice for the capitalists and he had no doubt the Vozhd had every intention of making it so. Take a pound of flesh from the Turks on top of taking Kurdistan and whom the Turks would be blaming for it? Not take it and you'd be alienating the Greeks without necessarily soothing Turkish feelings given the loss of Kurdistan. Of course there was also the matter of the Soviet Union's own territorial ambitions in the east...
Cairo, December 3rd, 1943
Winston Churchill looked again at the napkin were the results of his late night private meeting with Stalin laid written for posterity. Greece was of course to be western. Kurdistan 90-10. Iran 75-25. Turkey, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia 50-50. Romania 25-75. Not great but the best he could do at the moment. And with some luck the split percentages could surely change to the West's favour. If a country avoided Communist domination surely democracy and free market would prevail from within. With sufficient help and guidance from London if necessary. He sipped more from his whiskey before looking at another note. Tomorrow he would be in Athens. And if neither Mr Dragoumis nor the Sophoklis Venizelos were up to the league of Eleutherios Venizelos, this did not make them easy customers. And he and Franklin would be presenting them with some pretty tough choices...
Athens, December 4th, 1943
Ion Dragoumis gave a carefully calculated look to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He liked to profess himself an idealist even to himself, but this belied nearly half a century as a diplomat and statesman, a good one at that.
"So my dear Mr. Roosevelt, to get it straight. Greece can choose between the European side of Constantinople being part of a United Nations Free Territory, effectively a continuation of the pre-war League city, or to having a plebiscite overseen by the three Allied powers, as soon as the City is liberated, to unite with Greece. Said plebiscite would of course not take into account the... demographic changes within the City in the past three years, now would it? You have seen our intelligence estimates that perhaps up to 100,000 Greeks and Armenians have died from starvation or other causes and the entire Jewish population was shipped away by the Germans. Of course you have..."
My guess is that Stalin will be much more willing to support the communists during the Greek Civil War if it ever happens if Greece ever gets control over the straits.
Interesting dynamics. Stalin's reasoning makes sense. Now the Greeks can put a spammer into it but to a point. And my guess is the plebiscite will only cover the European side. The Soviets are unlikely to tolerate a Greek naval base in the Halic. They will argue that Greek domination of the Agean (Mudros) is adequate balance for Soviet domination of the Marmara Sea.
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