Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I have to admit that I had no idea early 20th century Liberal/Royalist politics were such an inchoate mess in Greece. All things said, the Royalists' punches all seem to come landing down on themselves, this looking to be no exception to the rule - though Italian meddling could change that more than it already has.
 
This seems like it could go the way of Spain. That is, a failed coup and a failed response by the government leads to the two sides becoming entrenched in their current holdings, bleeding into a long and bloody civil war. But given the incompetence of the Royalists, it could also as easily result in their quick defeat and the ostracization of their ideology.
 
This seems like it could go the way of Spain. That is, a failed coup and a failed response by the government leads to the two sides becoming entrenched in their current holdings, bleeding into a long and bloody civil war. But given the incompetence of the Royalists, it could also as easily result in their quick defeat and the ostracization of their ideology.
Well, agree that they failed on their coup... Or at least so seems, given that they already failed on the most important and key part of their coup's success, the foresee decapitation strike, i.e. the Venizelos' assassination; but I 'd to disagree about to qualify to the government reaction to the ongoing coup attempt as failed. Because, aside that still 'd be very soon to qualify it as such, the government response seems that, given the recent and surprising of the rebellion and power grab attempt, that it may yet still have to start. Given that, I think we will still have to wait to see as 'd will be played out the seems that the unavoidable internecine fight between the opposite political factions.
 
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formion

Banned
Moderate Royalists such as Dragoumis and Stratos will be horrified by the asassination attempt and will back Venizelos. At the same time, the Venizelists control the army. Almost all the generals are Venizelists, while a good portion of the colonels are radical and ambitious venizelists such as Kondylis, Plastiras and Gonatas. The Navy is also fanatically Venizelists with the esteemed admiral (and currently regent) Kountouriotis being a pillar of the Liberal Party. Overall, the coup will be swiftly crushed.

I think the coup results are two: First and foremost, a Republic. Secondly, Mussolini and fascism is discredited, which will help the republican movement in Greece. I think the author is preparing us for the following timeline: Venizelos wins the 1924 elections. Then he loses the 1928 elections due to voter fatigue. The Popular Party has the dubious honor of being in the wrong place at the wrong time- hello Great Depression. Venizelos returns in power in 1932. He dies in 1936 and then we may see a Liberal Party under Sofoulis, Kafantaris or Papapandreou. Greece enjoys stability during the Interwar, so rearmament starts earlier and follows the OTL suggestions of venizelist officers.
 
Things escalated, I don't thing the rebels will prevail. I agree with @formion , prospects for Monarchy in Greece look grim. What is the stance of the Church of Greece on this rebellion ? In OTL the church officials were mostly royalists.
 
Well this certainly looks like a mess in the making. I'm pretty confident the Venizelists will beat the Ultras in the end, but I wonder what the cost will be and if Italy is going to get more involved than they already are.
Open Italian military involvement would be problematic, neither Britain nor France would take kindly to it, the Venizelos government is too close to both.

I have to admit that I had no idea early 20th century Liberal/Royalist politics were such an inchoate mess in Greece. All things said, the Royalists' punches all seem to come landing down on themselves, this looking to be no exception to the rule - though Italian meddling could change that more than it already has.
We are talking about the people who in 1917 proposed to attack the Parthenon with artillery and blame the Entente in order to gather support from Constantine, then proposed that Constantine should escape to Tripoli and lead from there an army against the Entente. Then upped their game by organizing mutinies in the army that was going to the front and followed that by proposing that Constantine should lead a German-Bulgarian attack in Macedonia coupled with a revolt of the Greek army at the front to join the invaders.

This seems like it could go the way of Spain. That is, a failed coup and a failed response by the government leads to the two sides becoming entrenched in their current holdings, bleeding into a long and bloody civil war. But given the incompetence of the Royalists, it could also as easily result in their quick defeat and the ostracization of their ideology.
The government has been certainly been caught by surprise. On the other hand the Royalists had a weak starting hand...

I'm pretty certain the general public and most of the active service officers are going to be loyalists.
The grand majority of the active duty officers after 1917 are either outright Venizelist or neutrals. The public depends. There are areas that are overwhelmingly Venizelist, particularly after the exchange of populations for example Crete, Ionia, Macedonia and Thrace. There are others that are overwhelmingly Royalist like the Peloponnesus. And there are others that are split. Of course there is also the question of moderates reaction to the coup particularly given that for the past three years moderates on both sides were trying the mend the schism.

Well, agree that they failed on their coup... Or at least so seems, given that they already failed on the most important and key part of their coup's success, the foresee decapitation strike, i.e. the Venizelos' assassination; but I 'd to disagree about to qualify to the government reaction to the ongoing coup attempt as failed. Because, aside that still 'd be very soon to qualify it as such, the government response seems that, given the recent and surprising of the rebellion and power grab attempt, that it may yet still have to start. Given that, I think we will still have to wait to see as 'd will be played out the seems that the unavoidable internecine fight between the opposite political factions.
What we know from OTL but the coupists don't is that control of Athens tended to determine whether a coup would succeed or not. Of course Metaxas did believe as much anyway. In theory at least this can succeed even with Venizelos alive but certainly the coups chances of taking Athens just went down by several notches.

Moderate Royalists such as Dragoumis and Stratos will be horrified by the asassination attempt and will back Venizelos. At the same time, the Venizelists control the army. Almost all the generals are Venizelists, while a good portion of the colonels are radical and ambitious venizelists such as Kondylis, Plastiras and Gonatas. The Navy is also fanatically Venizelists with the esteemed admiral (and currently regent) Kountouriotis being a pillar of the Liberal Party. Overall, the coup will be swiftly crushed.
There are Royalist naval officers of course, Sophoklis Dousmanis, Kavadias, Stratos and Sakellariou for example and others supposedly neutral but sympathetic to the crown like Mezevyris but there are also politics and plain simple personal issues at play as well. And on the Venizelist side you have of course Xatzikyriakos, Demestichas, Voulgaris, Kolialexis just to name the more prominent ones...

I think the coup results are two: First and foremost, a Republic. Secondly, Mussolini and fascism is discredited, which will help the republican movement in Greece. I think the author is preparing us for the following timeline: Venizelos wins the 1924 elections. Then he loses the 1928 elections due to voter fatigue. The Popular Party has the dubious honor of being in the wrong place at the wrong time- hello Great Depression. Venizelos returns in power in 1932. He dies in 1936 and then we may see a Liberal Party under Sofoulis, Kafantaris or Papapandreou. Greece enjoys stability during the Interwar, so rearmament starts earlier and follows the OTL suggestions of venizelist officers.
I would not take the OTL death of Venizelos for granted. By all accounts it was pretty sudden following a pneumonia in early 1936. By the same token 1936 is 13 years in the future and something could happen to Venizelos before that. I'd also note that the Royalists are split along at least three main parties, Stratos Reformist Conservative, Dragoumis national party and the Populists who after Gounaris death have no definite leadership, Theotokis and Protopapadakis are still around and you also have Tsaldaris and Rallis. On the Liberal side without the 1920 defeat and Venizelos remaining in politics the internal splits of OTL never happened. Although you still likely get the Agrarians to the left of the Liberals. And of course the Communists.

Things escalated, I don't thing the rebels will prevail. I agree with @formion , prospects for Monarchy in Greece look grim. What is the stance of the Church of Greece on this rebellion ? In OTL the church officials were mostly royalists.
Meletius the patriarch of Constantinople and former bishop of Athens is staunchly Venizelist... and TTL the autocephalus church of Greece is on the path to extinction what with Constantinople outside Turkish control. The bishop of Athens is Chrysostomos I who was at a minimum friendly to Venizelism, he was the one to who administered the oath of the Venizelos government in 1917. Most clergy in old Greece is of course not Venizelist...
 
Meletius the patriarch of Constantinople and former bishop of Athens is staunchly Venizelist... and TTL the autocephalus church of Greece is on the path to extinction what with Constantinople outside Turkish control. The bishop of Athens is Chrysostomos I who was at a minimum friendly to Venizelism, he was the one to who administered the oath of the Venizelos government in 1917. Most clergy in old Greece is of course not Venizelist...
Huh, I would've thought with the Venezielist securing Constantinople and securing the Asia Minor coast, the Greek clergy would be more supportive of the government.
 
Huh, I would've thought with the Venezielist securing Constantinople and securing the Asia Minor coast, the Greek clergy would be more supportive of the government.
It's largely a matter of geography. The church in the Ottoman and former Ottoman areas as well as the diaspora is mostly staunchly Venizelist. That of old Greece had excommunicated Venizelos in December 1916. The anathema text was a model of moderation as can be seen below (translation mine) :

"We, the undersigned Metropolitans, instructed by thousands of reservists and citizens to read a severe aphorism against the culprit of high treason El. Venizelos, the one who betrayed our nation to the Anglo-French, the one who shamefully conspired with them, to send day before yesterday's note, only for our adored king to be saddened and blackmailed to call to power the sold-out Senegalese billy goat Venizelos, the moral perpetrator of the burning of Tatoi, the moral perpetrator of the tribulations of our brave officers at the hands of the coward Sarrail. Against that traitor Venizelos we read aphorism to fall upon him: The rashes of Job, the whale of Jonah, the leprosy of Jehovah, the trembling of the dying, the thunderbolts of Hell and the curses and anathemas of humans. The same curses we shall read and against those who in the next elections will give a vote for the despicable traitor Venizelos and plead among others for their hands to wither, their eyes to be blinded and their ears to be deafened."

The bishops responsible for the anathema were put on trial by the church and wholesale replaced of course but they are still around as is most of the lower clergy that had followed them. So is the pile of rocks of the anathema as Venizelos had ordered to leave it in place for all to remember, that Greece would win in spite of the aphorism and the church aphorisms were worth nothing...
 

formion

Banned
Perhaps that is a reference to his beard?
That is my take as well. After all, Greeks use the word "billy goat" as a derogatory for the bearded clergy. Combine it with the fact that the French used Senegalese troops in their occupation and voila! Eleftherios " Senegalese billy goat" Venizelos.
 
Is there a story behind this precise nickname? Oddly specific to say the least.
The Senegalese part, was from the accusation that Venizelos had returned to power "on the bayonets of the Senegalese" thanks to the large numbers of colonial troups used in the Macedonian front.
 
Part 26 Not the son of the eagle
Athens, January 6th, 1924

The army just like the rest of the government had been caught by surprise. Its head general Leonidas Paraskeuopoulos was with his family in his native Smyrna. His chief of staff Theodore Pangalos was in his own home in Eleusis near Athens. This left lt general Alexandros Mazarakis-Ainian the deputy commander of the army general staff as the acting commander in Athens. Following demobilization Army Corps A had returned to its base in Athens, it was control of its units, particularly the II Infantry division that would determine control of Athens. For a moment it looked like control might be lost, Mazarakis while an excellent organizer was hardly the most decisive officer the Greek army had even produced. But accident had brought Venizelos right at the barracks of the 1st infantry regiment while he escaped the attempt on his life, and the Cretan politician was anything but indecisive. He immediately got on the phone calling Pangalos immediately back to Athens and ordered the regiment to action. By the morning Athens was fully controlled by the government. The coupists had managed to take over the 7th infantry regiment, along with a number of smaller units but both the 1st and 34th regiments, and the Corps artillery had remained loyal and had both the Evelpidon military academy and the Naval Cadets school. The 7th had surrendered to Pangalos after some skirmishing, the junior officers and the common soldiers had little stomach to fight against their fellow soldiers, often their neighbours in civilian life [1] out of the blue.

Smyrna, January 6th, 1924

There might had been plots in some units of the Greek army in Asia Minor to support the coup. But Greek Ionia was overwhelmingly Venizelist. So were nearly all the commanders of the Asia Minor army, any neutralists quickly followed the lead of their pro-government colleagues. Outright royalists like colonel Alexandros Papagos, in Philadelpheia [2] with his cavalry regiment did nothing, the alternative would be getting crushed. This accident of luck would save Papagos future in the army. Huge demonstrations in support of the government would erupt in Smyrna and several smaller Ionian towns. General Paraskeuopoulos, accidentaly in Smyrna would oversee a call up of reservists to reinforce the Asia Minor army, lest the Turks got ideas of taking advantage.

Thessaloniki, January 6th, 1924

Colonel Ziras a usually apolitical officer had joined the rebellion, for unclear reasons, either perceived slights by Venizelists or as a result of his tedency to get involved in card playing for considerable amounts. If he thought Thessaloniki would fall just on his name he was quickly proven mistaken, as general Leonardopoulos, the commander of the recently created C army corps and a former officer of the army of National Defence in 1916 stayed loyal to the government and fought back. With the population also largely backing the Venizelists particularly thanks to the influx of Pontic Greek refugees, the result was largely forgone. Ziras carried some of the garrisons of Macedonia but not Thessaloniki.


Patras, January 7th, 1924

Results were at the very least mixed for Metaxas and the so called "majors committee" that had launched the coup. Peloponnesus had come under full control of the rebels, with royalist volunteers flocking to their colours. Parts of western Greece and Epirus had also fallen to the coup but notably, Constantine Gouvelis the head of the North Epirote rebels back in 1922 despite being openly a Royalist who had been removed from the army in 1927-21 outright refused to participate on news it was being led by Metaxas, he had been a prominent member of the Military League back in 1909. The Cyclades, parts of central Greece and parts of Macedonia were under rebel control, although at Lamia the XIII Infantry regiment had stayed loyal to its commander Nikolaos Plastiras despite the soldiers being royalists. In the navy Dimitrios Oikonomou and Epameinondas Kavvadias had managed to take over the light cruiser Helli and several smaller ships in a surprise raid in the Salamis naval base but the rest of the fleet and particularly the other 3 cruisers and the 1st destroyer flottila with it Aetos and S class destroyers had remained loyal to the government. Again personal loyalties had played a role, Alexandros Sakellariou despite being a royalist had refused to join the rebels. The rest of the country was under the government's control. Worse yet both Stratos and Dragoumis had outright condemned the coup. If the rebellion was to succeed immediate action was needed. Metaxas moved to Corinth and launched an attack north towards Athens before the government could recover from the surprise.

Greek-Bulgarian border, January 10th, 1924

Colonel Ziras would escaped to Bulgaria with loyalist troops in his pursuit. It was a rather humiliating end for a man that had made a name for himself leading a regiment in the battle of Dobro Pole, but the alternative was to stay and get caught by the troops of colonel Kondylis pursuing him and there were no guarantees for his treatment afterwards. The coup had effectively collapsed outside the Peloponnesus and the Cyclades, the previous day units under major Psarros had taken his native Anfissa and Plastiras had occupied Chalkis. But Metaxas still had the better part of three divisions marching on Athens from Corinth.

Mount Kithairon, January 12th, 1924

Metaxas had proclaimed a "march on Athens" and led the III, IV and XIV Infantry divisions all taken over by the rebels towards it. Pangalos had taken up defensive positions with the II infantry division in mount Kithairon, reinforced by elements from the XIII and I infantry divisions. For a change this was a real battle. Of shorts at least, neither side had their heart at killing their fellow Greeks if they could help it. Metaxas had been an excellent staff officer, nicknamed the little Moltke, but had never directly commanded units in action himself, thus actual operational command was in the hands of Papoulas. Pangalos might not have been as good a staff officer, though by all accounts was brilliant, but unlike Metaxas was also an infantryman with quite a record in command of frontline units. Perhaps inevitably the battle start tilting towards the defenders, particularly as the kept receiving reinforcements by rail from the north. When the Crete division under cover of the fleet landed on the flank of the royalists it was too much and they start falling back towards Corinth in disarray.

Corinth, January 16th, 1924

Metaxas had left defence of Corinth to major Maniadakis. Maniadakis had tried to defend the town. But when the navy under commodore Xatzikyriakos had threatened to bombard the town, the citizens start spontaneously raising white flags and the conscripts start joining them, Maniadakis was forced to surrender. Loyalist troops marched into the Peloponnesus. Resistance was collapsing as it was becoming increasingly clear the coup had failed.

Ionian sea, January 20th, 1924

Metaxas had boarded the torpedo boat Kios, former Austro-Hungarian 99M to try escaping to Italy. Two days before Kavvadias had tried to put up a fight with Helli in the gulf of Patras only to be defeated by the destroyers of commodore Kolialexis, little damage had been inflicted by both sides. But Kios had been detected by loyalist Greek warships. Destroyers Aetos and Leon gave pursuit intercepting Kios which between being sunk and surrendering chose to surrender. Metaxas alongside Stratigos were taken in custody. The next day the last rebel troops under Papoulas would surrender in Tripoli.

Athens, January 25th, 1924

For all the fighting, as civil wars went the Metaxas coup had been relatively bloodless with not much more than a hundred death overall. But now the country already shocked by the coup itself, faced a different shock as increasing evidence surfaced that Italy had supported the coup with arms and money. Greece made an official complaint to the League of Nations, for the Italian involvement in its internal affairs which Rome promptly ignored. The Greek ambassador was recalled from Rome with the Italians reciprocating but it was in neither country's benefit to push things further, with Britain mediating relations would be restored in March, Greek participation in the Rome naval conference being used as a pretext, but relations between Greece and Italy remained frosty. Within Greece relations were rather less subdued. Open support for outright abolishing the monarchy had emerged in the aftermath of the coup, Venizelos had refused to condone it, still entertaining hopes that Aspasia might have a son, but did state in public that personally he was a republican. His followers did not need much more prompting than that. On the royalist side Dragoumis following the evidence of Italian involvement in the coup and disgusted at the stance of George II who had failed even to uter a word of support for the people rebelling in his name, was now supporting the proposals to have a referendum on the future of the monarchy, even though he stated that he would personally support the monarchy. The parliament would decide a month later that a referendum would take place simultaneously with the parliamentary elections in the end of the year.

Goudi, March 20th, 1924

Metaxas looked with a bit of disbelief the dozen soldiers lined opposite him. Of course he had been condemned to death back in 1920 but he'd never believed it would actually come to this. But the court martial after the failed revolution, he refused to think of it as a coup, had just given him a second death sentence and apparently Venizelos was not in the mood for mercy. At least as far as he was involved. He, Papoulas and Stratigos had been sentenced to death. The officers that had actively participated had been cashiered, removed from the reserve list and their pensions suspended but otherwise with few exceptions left free, Metaxas did not know this but it was the deal Stratos had made in exchange for agreeing to the referendum. A referendum to remove a king. It would be comic if it was not treasonous. It did not matter any more. The second leutenant, not even a regular officer but a reservist he noted, was ordering the soldiers to take aim. Well he had done his duty to his king even if his king did not even bother to utter a single word in his support. Ironic given how he had wanted to leave completely politics after the death of king Constantine and had to be persuaded otherwise. The soldiers fired. Then nothing.

[1] The army was recruiting regionally.
[2] Turkish Alasehir
 
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If the election and referendum take place at the end of the year, that leaves time for Aspasia to give birth. If she has a son, Royalist opposition can rally around a new figure and there would be opportunity for Venizelos to officially support the monarchy, even though with the whole event rhyming like OTL, I'd suspect we'd end up with a daughter and a republic.

Also, a very minor discrepancy at the beginning of the update. Venizelos is mentioned as having taken shelter in the barracks of the 1st regiment while in the previous update, that was the 2nd.
 
Perhaps this would make the government change the recruitment policy of the army instead of locals forming the various units of the army it would make sense to place people of different backgrounds in various units thus lessening the risk of coup's in the future
 
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